100-Pack Opening: The Real Data
A documented 100-pack opening of Ascended Heroes — one full case of ETBs plus one additional pack — produced the following results. This is real data, not theoretical averages. It illustrates the variance that every collector faces.
What was opened
- 11 ETBs (Elite Trainer Boxes)
- 100 booster packs total
- Paid above retail — no distribution access
- Estimated spend: SGD $1,300+
Hits pulled
- 14 EX cards
- 7 Mega EX cards (21 EX/Mega total)
- 11 Illustration Rares (IRs)
- 6 Full Art Trainers
- 2 Full Art Dragonite (same card twice)
- 0 SIRs
Hit rate breakdown
- EX/Mega EX: 21% (1 in ~5 packs)
- IR: 11% (1 in ~9 packs)
- Full Art Trainer: 6% (1 in ~17 packs)
- Full Art Pokemon: 2% (1 in ~50 packs)
- SIR: 0% (0 in 100 packs)
Key takeaway: This was a legitimate, below-average result. The same opener previously pulled 2 SIRs and 2 SRs in just 5 ETBs. Variance in pack opening is extreme — any single session can land anywhere between exceptional and completely dry.
Ascended Heroes SIR Pull Rates: What the Numbers Say
The Pokemon Company does not publish official pull rates for any set, including Ascended Heroes. The estimates below are derived from community aggregate data — hundreds of documented openings shared across collector communities in Singapore and globally.
| Card Type | Est. Per Pack | Per ETB (9 packs) | Per Booster Box (36 packs) | Variance |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Special Illustration Rare (SIR) | ~1 in 100–120 | ~1 in 11–13 ETBs | ~1 per 3–4 boxes | Very high — 0 in 100 or 2 in 45 are both real outcomes |
| Full Art Pokemon (FA) | ~1 in 45–60 | ~1 in 5–7 ETBs | ~0.5–0.8 per box | High — not guaranteed per box |
| Full Art Trainer | ~1 in 25–35 | ~1 in 3–4 ETBs | ~1 per box | Moderate — usually 1 per box |
| Illustration Rare (IR) | ~1 in 18–25 | ~0.4–0.5 per ETB | ~1.5–2 per box | Low-moderate — fairly consistent |
| Mega EX / Double Rare | ~1 in 5–7 | ~1.5 per ETB | ~5–7 per box | Low — consistent |
Why variance is so extreme for SIRs
SIRs are seeded at roughly 1 per case on average — but "on average" hides enormous session-to-session swings:
- Cases are factory-packed, not statistically randomised per pack
- Print runs batch SIRs into specific positions — opening one case does not guarantee even odds
- Multiple SIRs can cluster in one case while adjacent cases go dry
- Small sample sizes (1–3 boxes) are nearly meaningless for pull rate estimation
The financial reality of chasing SIRs
- Goal: Pull the Dragonite SIR (1 of ~8 SIRs in set)
- Avg packs per SIR: ~110
- Avg packs per specific SIR: ~880
- ETB cost (9 packs): ~SGD $60–$75
- Expected spend: SGD $5,800–$7,300
- Buy it outright: SGD $80–$140
- Opening is 40–90× more expensive than buying the single. Open for fun, not profit.
Ascended Heroes God Pack: What It Is & How Rare
A god pack is a pack where every single card inside is a hit — every slot contains a full art, IR, SIR, or equivalent premium rarity instead of the standard mix of commons and uncommons. They are not officially confirmed or documented by The Pokemon Company, but have been pulled and documented on video by collectors globally.
God pack characteristics
- Every card in the pack is a hit (no commons/uncommons)
- Typically 10 cards, all holo or higher rarity
- Can contain multiple SIRs, full arts, and IRs in one pack
- Recognised instantly by the weight and visible texture of the cards
- Considered the rarest single-pack experience in the hobby
God pack probability (community estimates)
| Estimate | Odds |
|---|---|
| Conservative estimate | 1 in 4,000 packs |
| Mid estimate | 1 in 2,500 packs |
| Optimistic estimate | 1 in 1,500 packs |
| Expected cost at mid estimate | SGD $16,000–$20,000+ |
No official odds exist. These are community aggregates from documented god pack pulls across multiple SV era sets.
Can you identify a god pack before opening?
Based on field weighing data from the Singapore collector community, god packs in Ascended Heroes do appear to carry a measurable weight premium — enough to stand out from normal variation, particularly in tins.
Bundle weighing data (booster bundles, 6-pack)
| Bundle weight | Result |
|---|---|
| 150g | Normal (hit, no god pack) |
| 150g | Normal |
| 150g | Normal |
| 150g | Normal |
| 150g | Normal |
| 151g | Normal |
| 151g | Normal |
| 152g | Normal (no god pack) |
| 154g | God pack confirmed (user-reported) |
Normal bundles range 150–152g. The god pack bundle came in at 154g — roughly 2–4g heavier than the top of the normal range.
Individual pack weighing data (from tin)
| Pack weight | Result |
|---|---|
| 22.46g | Holo energy + hit |
| 22.45g | Holo energy + no hit |
| 22.51g | Hit |
| 22.52g | No hit |
| 22.57g | No hit |
| 22.61g | No hit |
| 22.63g | Hit |
| 22.63g | No hit |
| 22.66g | No hit |
| 22.69g | Holo energy + hit |
| 22.86g | Holo energy + hit |
| 22.49g | Normal (from tin) |
| 23.80g | God pack (from tin — confirmed on opening) |
Normal individual packs weigh 22.45–22.86g. The confirmed god pack came in at 23.80g — roughly 1g heavier than the heaviest normal pack, and well outside the standard range.
Key finding: Individual hit vs. no-hit is not reliably distinguishable by weight (range overlaps heavily). God packs, however, appear to sit clearly outside normal weight range — both at the bundle level (~154g vs 150–152g) and at the individual pack level (~23.80g vs 22.45–22.86g). This aligns with every slot being a premium card rather than standard paper stock.
In the documented 100-pack Ascended Heroes opening described above, the opener specifically mentioned wanting to experience a god pack — and did not hit one. This is normal. Most collectors never pull a single god pack in their lifetime of opening.
ETBs vs Tins vs Sticker Collections: Which Has Better SIR Odds?
A common question among Singapore collectors: do different Ascended Heroes products have different pull rates? The honest answer is: the booster packs inside are identical regardless of product type. Pull rates are determined by the pack, not the box it came in.
Elite Trainer Boxes (ETBs) — Best value overall
ETBs contain 9 booster packs plus a promo card, sleeves, dice, and other accessories. The booster packs inside are standard — pull rates are identical to a booster box. The extra items (sleeves, promo) add genuine value, especially for players. At Singapore retail, ETBs typically offer slightly more total value than raw packs.
- Packs per ETB: 9 packs
- Extras: Promo + accessories
- SIR odds: Same as booster box
Tins — Community reports mixed
Ascended Heroes tins contain fewer booster packs (typically 4) plus a promo or figure. Community reports from the Ascended Heroes opening above noted that an entire case of tins produced zero SIRs — though this is consistent with the low per-pack probability and the small number of packs in a tin. The tin promo and figure add display value. Tins are not "worse" at pull rates per pack — they simply contain fewer packs.
- Packs per tin: 4 packs (est.)
- Extras: Promo / figure
- SIR odds: Same per pack
Sticker / Tech Sticker Collections — Fewer packs per dollar
Sticker collections and tech sticker collections typically contain 2–3 booster packs alongside sticker sheets or accessories. The per-pack pull rates are identical to all other Ascended Heroes products. The 100-pack opening referenced above included a case of sticker collections alongside tins — and neither product produced SIRs. This is a sample size issue, not a product-specific rate difference.
- Packs included: 2–3 packs
- Extras: Sticker sheets
- Value for pulls: Worst per SGD
Bottom line on product choice: If maximising pack-for-dollar is your goal, booster boxes give the most packs per SGD spent. ETBs add promo value worth considering. Tins and sticker collections are higher cost-per-pack — buy them for the extras, not for pull rate advantages.
Does Pack Weight Checking Work for Ascended Heroes?
Pack weight checking is the practice of weighing individual booster packs before opening to predict whether they contain rarer (heavier) holofoil cards. It was moderately effective on older sets — particularly Base Set through early EX era — because holo cards had noticeably different weight. Here is the current situation for Ascended Heroes.
Why weight checking does not reliably work for hits on modern sets
- Scarlet & Violet era packs use consistent packaging with minimal weight variance between standard holos and commons
- Field data from Ascended Heroes shows individual pack weights ranging 22.45–22.86g regardless of whether the pack contains a hit — the overlap makes hit/no-hit detection unreliable
- Mass-market digital scales accurate enough to detect fractions-of-a-gram differences cost thousands of dollars
- Even accurate scales show false positives from humidity, surface irregularities, and manufacturing tolerances
- Shops that sell individual packs are aware of weight checking and take countermeasures
The exception: god packs may show a detectable weight difference
Community weighing data suggests god packs sit clearly outside the normal weight range — a confirmed god pack individual pack weighed 23.80g against a normal range of 22.45–22.86g, and a god pack booster bundle weighed 154g against a normal range of 150–152g. This is a meaningful gap, not fringe variation. However, god packs are estimated at roughly 1 in 2,500–4,000 packs — the overwhelming majority of heavy-ish packs will still be normal packs at the upper end of the standard range.
The ethics of weight checking
Beyond the technical limitations, weight checking raises ethical concerns in the collecting community:
- Selecting heavy packs from a retail display effectively "dumps" the lighter packs onto other buyers
- Most Singapore TCG shops explicitly prohibit pack selecting
- Being caught weight checking can result in a permanent ban from shops
- The Singapore collector community is tight-knit — reputation matters more than a single pack advantage
Verdict: Do not do it. The technical edge is negligible on modern sets, and the community and shop cost is real.
What This Means For You: Practical Singapore Collector Guide
If you want a specific Ascended Heroes SIR
Buy the single. Dragonite SIR and Gengar SIR are consistently available on Carousell and tcgTalk from Singapore sellers. At SGD $80–$140 for NM copies, you are getting the card for a fraction of expected opening costs. Use the tcgTalk price comparison to find the best current deal.
If you want to open packs
Set a budget that you are fully comfortable losing (assume zero SIRs). Buy ETBs for the complete experience — promo card, accessories, and the satisfaction of opening. Enjoy the IRs, EXs, and full art trainers that you will realistically pull. A Psyduck IR or a Hitmontop holo can be genuinely exciting pulls even without hitting the top rarity.
If you are buying sealed for investment
Buy booster boxes or ETBs at or near Singapore retail. Store them sealed and unopened. Do not pay above-retail premiums unless the set is already out of print. Historical SV era sealed appreciation runs on 3–5 year horizons. Check our full investment analysis for more detail.
If you are grading Ascended Heroes SIRs
The Dragonite SIR at raw SGD $80–$140 and PSA 10 value of ~$350–$550 gives strong positive ROI after ~$70 all-in Singapore grading costs, but only on a PSA 10. Inspect corners, centering, and surface under directed light before submitting.
Frequently Asked Questions
How often do you get an SIR from an Ascended Heroes ETB?
On average, roughly once every 11–13 ETBs. That means you should expect to open many ETBs before hitting an SIR. Some collectors hit one in their first ETB; others go through a full case of 12 with zero. Both outcomes are within normal variance.
Is the Ascended Heroes god pack confirmed?
Community members have reported and filmed god pack-style pulls from Ascended Heroes, but The Pokemon Company has not confirmed the mechanic officially. Based on patterns consistent with other SV era sets that have confirmed god packs (such as Prismatic Evolutions), the general belief in the collector community is that Ascended Heroes does have this mechanic.
What is the reverse slot in Ascended Heroes packs?
Every Scarlet & Violet era pack includes a reverse holo slot — a position that always contains a holofoil version of a standard card. In rare cases, a hit (IR, full art, or higher) can appear in the reverse slot instead of the standard hit slot. Always check both the hit position and the reverse slot when opening — a significant pull can appear in either.
Why did one case of Ascended Heroes produce zero SIRs?
Because variance at this sample size is real and expected. With an SIR rate of roughly 1 in 110 packs, opening 100 packs gives you only a ~60% chance of hitting even one SIR. That means roughly 40% of 100-pack case openings will produce zero SIRs. It is not bad luck in an extraordinary sense — it is a predictable outcome of the actual odds.
Are Ascended Heroes ETBs worth buying at above-retail prices in Singapore?
No — unless you are buying sealed for long-term investment and believe the set will appreciate significantly. If you are buying to open, paying above retail makes an already-negative expected value worse. Wait for prices to normalize or buy at Singapore retail from shops like Bricks Play, DEKTCGshop, or Concept City when stock is available.
Disclaimer: Pull rates are community estimates derived from aggregate opening data. The Pokemon Company does not publish official pull rates. God pack probability estimates are not confirmed by any official source. All prices are indicative estimates based on recent Singapore market transactions — verify current prices on tcgTalk or Carousell before buying or selling. This is not financial advice.