Card prices are sourced from PriceCharting market data (USD). SGD equivalents use an approximate 1.28 exchange rate. Pull rates are derived from approximately 3,500 community pack openings. Unlike most sets where market prices exceed the break-even, Perfect Order booster boxes are currently trading below their expected card value — an unusual situation driven by relatively modest market demand for the set compared to the chase cards it contains.
The Short Answer
Perfect Order is one of the few sets where opening at market price is mathematically justifiable for boxes and bundles — but single packs are marginally −EV. The expected card value per pack is USD $6.64 against a market pack price of $6.93:
| Product | Market Price (USD) | Expected Card Value | Return Ratio | Verdict |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Booster Pack | ~$6.93 | $6.64 | 0.96× | Marginally −EV. Very close to break-even. |
| Booster Bundle (6 packs) | ~$38.31 | $39.85 | 1.04× | Marginally +EV at market. |
| ~Break-even bundle | ~$39.85 USD (SGD ~$51) | 1.0× | Expected value equals cost. | |
| Booster Box (36 packs) | ~$194.75 | $239.08 | 1.23× | Clearly +EV at market. |
| ~Break-even box | ~$239 USD (SGD ~$306) | 1.0× | Expected value equals cost. | |
The critical caveat: the return ratio is the average across 100,000 simulated openings. The median outcome — what most individual openers actually experience — is a small profit (+$18) for boxes but still a loss (−$8) for bundles, because the math is driven by low-probability SIR pulls. Opening a single pack at market wins only 18.8% of the time. A full box at market wins 65.2% of the time. The wide spread of outcomes is what makes this feel like gambling even when the numbers say +EV.
Card Prices by Rarity
Perfect Order (ME03) has six rarity tiers above common: Double Rare, Illustration Rare, Ultra Rare, Special Illustration Rare, and Mega Hyper Rare. Unlike standard SV-era sets, there is no Mega Attack Rare tier in this set. The card list runs from #001 to #124.
Mega Hyper Rare (◇) — #124
One card. The single rarest printing in the set. Estimated pull rate approximately 1 in 1,789 packs (~0.056%). Golden full-art treatment.
| # | Card | Price (USD) | Price (SGD est.) |
|---|---|---|---|
| 124 | Mega Zygarde ex | $171.61 | ~$220 |
Special Illustration Rares (★★ SIR) — #118–123
6 cards. The main chase tier. Estimated pull rate approximately 1 in 81 packs (~1.23%). Price range is $32–$208. Meowth ex (#121) leads the pack by a wide margin.
| # | Card | Price (USD) | Price (SGD est.) |
|---|---|---|---|
| 121 | Meowth ex | $207.70 | ~$266 |
| 120 | Mega Zygarde ex | $94.26 | ~$121 |
| 123 | Rosa's Encouragement | $77.72 | ~$99 |
| 119 | Mega Clefable ex | $74.99 | ~$96 |
| 118 | Mega Starmie ex | $73.70 | ~$94 |
| 122 | Jacinthe | $32.26 | ~$41 |
Pool average: $93.44 USD. Pool median: $76.36 USD. The SIR pool is relatively small (6 cards) compared to most sets — the average is less skewed than usual, and even the lowest SIR (Jacinthe at $32.26) is meaningful. If you pull an SIR, expect it to be worth $32–$208 USD.
Ultra Rares (★★ UR) — #100–117
18 cards. Full-art ex Pokemon and full-art trainers/supporters. Expected approximately once every 12 packs (8.33%). A wide price range from $3 to $21.50.
| # | Card | Price (USD) | Price (SGD est.) |
|---|---|---|---|
| 107 | Meowth ex | $21.50 | ~$28 |
| 113 | Poké Pad | $14.31 | ~$18 |
| 102 | Mega Starmie ex | $13.98 | ~$18 |
| 104 | Mega Zygarde ex | $11.36 | ~$15 |
| 114 | Rosa's Encouragement | $9.11 | ~$12 |
| 103 | Mega Clefable ex | $8.59 | ~$11 |
| 105 | Yveltal ex | $8.32 | ~$11 |
| 109 | Forest of Vitality | $7.94 | ~$10 |
| 106 | Mega Skarmory ex | $6.50 | ~$8 |
| 117 | Wondrous Patch | $5.00 | ~$6 |
| 110 | Jacinthe | $5.00 | ~$6 |
| 116 | Tarragon | $4.81 | ~$6 |
| 108 | Energy Recycler | $4.72 | ~$6 |
| 112 | Naveen | $4.26 | ~$5 |
| 100 | Decidueye ex | $4.00 | ~$5 |
| 115 | Sacred Ash | $3.69 | ~$5 |
| 101 | Salazzle ex | $3.00 | ~$4 |
| 111 | Lumiose City | $3.07 | ~$4 |
Pool average: $7.73 USD. Unlike most sets where URs average $3–4, Perfect Order URs average nearly $8 due to the ex Pokemon full arts commanding above-average prices. This meaningfully contributes to the overall EV.
Illustration Rares (★ IR) — #089–099
11 cards. Expected approximately once every 9 packs (11.11%). Clefairy (#094) at $34.50 is the clear chase IR — the remaining 10 cluster between $1.78 and $7.89.
| # | Card | Price (USD) | Notes |
|---|---|---|---|
| 094 | Clefairy | $34.50 | Chase IR — strong demand |
| 093 | Dedenne | $7.89 | |
| 090 | Rowlet | $7.14 | |
| 095 | Espurr | $5.99 | |
| 092 | Aurorus | $5.18 | |
| 098 | Doublade | $4.12 | |
| 099 | Raticate | $4.88 | |
| 091 | Talonflame | $3.61 | |
| 089 | Spewpa | $3.18 | |
| 097 | Drapion | $2.38 | |
| 096 | Probopass | $1.78 |
Pool average: $7.33 USD. Pool median: $4.88 USD. Clefairy skews the mean by roughly $2.50 — without it, the average IR is closer to $4.90. The IR pool is the most consistently valuable non-SIR hit slot in this set.
Double Rares (★★ ex) — #001–088
9 ex and Mega ex cards in the base set. Expected approximately once every 5 packs (20%). Most are worth $1.15–$1.93, with Meowth ex (#062) at $3.99 as the only notable standout.
| # | Card | Price (USD) |
|---|---|---|
| 062 | Meowth ex | $3.99 |
| 021 | Mega Starmie ex | $1.93 |
| 055 | Mega Skarmory ex | $1.73 |
| 031 | Mega Clefable ex | $1.51 |
| 016 | Salazzle ex | $1.42 |
| 047 | Mega Zygarde ex | $1.29 |
| 053 | Yveltal ex | $1.25 |
| 012 | Decidueye ex | $1.15 |
| 022 | Lapras ex | $1.15 |
Pool average: $1.71 USD. Double Rares are the lowest-value hit slot — pulling a DR is the most common notable outcome per pack, but contributes minimally to EV compared to IRs or URs.
Chase Cards: Top 10 by Value
Meowth ex SIR (#121) is in a category of its own — at $207.70 USD it is more than twice the value of the next SIR. Together, the SIR pool and the single MHR account for the majority of the expected value per pack. Without an SIR or MHR pull, the remaining cards rarely cover the cost of a single pack at market.
Expected Value Per Pack
Using current PriceCharting market prices weighted by community-derived pull rates (3,500 pack sample), here is where each pack's expected value comes from:
| Component | Pull Rate | Pool Avg (USD) | EV Contribution |
|---|---|---|---|
| Bulk (commons + uncommons) | 100% | $0.80 | $0.80 |
| Reverse Holo slot | 100% | $1.60 | $1.60 |
| Standard Rare (★) | 59.3% | $2.01 | $1.19 |
| Double Rare (★★ ex) | 20.0% | $1.71 | $0.34 |
| Illustration Rare (★ IR) | 11.1% | $7.33 | $0.81 |
| Ultra Rare (#100–117) | 8.3% | $7.73 | $0.64 |
| SIR (#118–123) | 1.23% | $93.44 | $1.15 |
| Mega Hyper Rare (#124) | 0.056% | $171.61 | $0.10 |
Several observations stand out:
- Standard Rares are the largest single EV contributor at $1.19 per pack — more than IRs, URs, or the hit rarities combined. Perfect Order has 11 Standard Rares including energy cards, and several (Tyrantrum at $4.75, Landorus at $3.79, Aurorus at $3.31) are meaningfully priced. Pulling a good Standard Rare is not a bad outcome in this set.
- SIRs contribute $1.15 EV per pack despite a 1.23% pull rate — the relatively small SIR pool (6 cards) with solid floor values ($32 minimum) keeps EV contribution healthy even without extreme chase cards.
- Double Rares are the weakest hit slot — $0.34 EV contribution for a 20% pull rate. At $1.71 average, a DR pull rarely exceeds the cost of a single market pack.
- The Mega Hyper Rare contributes almost nothing to expected value — at 1 in 1,789 packs, the $0.10 per-pack contribution is negligible. It is essentially lottery territory.
Monte Carlo: Win vs Loss Odds
The EV table above gives averages. What actually happens to individual openers is driven by variance. The charts below show results from 100,000 simulated openings, drawing from the actual card pool prices and pull rates — not from averages. When an IR is pulled, it is randomly selected from all 11 actual IRs at their actual prices.
Each bar = $50 profit/loss range. Box market price ($194.75) is below the $239 break-even — opening a box is currently +EV. 100,000 simulated openings. Prices from PriceCharting (USD), May 2026.
Win / Loss summary across all formats
| Scenario | Cost | Win % | Loss % | Median P/L | P5 (bad luck) | P95 (good luck) | Avg Return |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Pack — market (~$6.93) | $6.93 | 18.8% | 81.2% | −$3 | −$4 | +$4 | 0.96× |
| Bundle — market (~$38.31) | $38.31 | 22.3% | 77.7% | −$8 | −$15 | +$63 | 1.04× |
| Box — market (~$194.75) | $194.75 | 65.2% | 34.8% | +$18 | −$28 | +$211 | 1.23× |
P5 = the outcome in the worst 5% of openings. P95 = the outcome in the best 5%. Win = profit > $0. Prices from PriceCharting secondary market data. Simulation: 100,000 runs, seed 42.
What these numbers mean in practice:
- Opening a single pack at market ($6.93): 81.2% of the time you lose a small amount (median −$3). The P95 outcome for a single pack is only +$4, meaning even in the best 5% of single-pack openings you barely break even. Individual packs are the worst format in every metric.
- Opening a bundle at market ($38.31): the median is still a loss (−$8), but the 1.04× average return means you are marginally ahead over many bundles. The 22.3% win rate reflects the fact that winning a bundle requires hitting a good IR or better — most bundles will contain only DRs and Standard Rares.
- Opening a box at market ($194.75): the median flips to a profit (+$18), and 65.2% of boxes return more than cost. A box gives you enough packs that SIR probability becomes meaningful — you can expect one SIR roughly every 2.3 boxes on average. The P5 loss on a box is only −$28, meaning even unlucky boxes don't lose much relative to cost.
The Break-Even Price
With an expected value of $6.64 USD per pack, the break-even prices across formats are:
The key context: Perfect Order market prices currently sit below the break-even for bundles and boxes — the opposite of most popular sets. Booster boxes trade at $194.75 against a break-even of $239, a ~$44 margin of safety. This happens when a set has chase cards that are priced high in isolation but hasn't attracted enough demand to push sealed product prices up in proportion. It may not last — if Meowth ex SIR or Mega Zygarde ex MHR gain more attention, sealed prices will rise to close this gap.
Sensitivity to SIR price changes
SIRs contribute $1.15 of the $6.64 EV per pack. Their prices are the most volatile component. Here is what happens to break-even prices if SIRs correct:
| SIR Price Scenario | EV per Pack | Break-even Bundle (USD) | Break-even Box (USD) | Box still +EV at market? |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Current prices (May 2026) | $6.64 | ~$39.85 | ~$239 | Yes (1.23×) |
| SIRs −25% | ~$6.35 | ~$38.10 | ~$229 | Yes (1.18×) |
| SIRs −50% | ~$6.06 | ~$36.36 | ~$218 | Yes (1.12×) |
| SIRs −75% | ~$5.77 | ~$34.62 | ~$208 | Yes (1.07×) |
Even a 75% collapse in SIR prices only brings the break-even box to ~$208 — still above the current $194.75 market price. The EV floor is supported by the strong UR pool ($7.73 average) and the 11 Standard Rares, which together contribute $1.83 per pack without any SIRs. This makes Perfect Order unusually resilient to SIR price corrections relative to its sealed product cost.
What You Should Actually Do
If you want a specific card
Buy the single. Use the tcgTalk price comparison to find the best current Singapore price across Carousell, Facebook, and SNKRDUNK. Targeting a specific SIR by opening packs is expensive: the expected number of packs to hit one specific SIR (1 of 6 in the pool) is roughly 81 packs ÷ (1/6) ≈ 486 packs — thousands of dollars of product to target a single card. Buy Meowth ex SIR directly.
If you want to open packs
Buy a booster box if possible — it is the only format where the median outcome is a profit at current market prices, and the per-pack cost is lower than buying individual packs. At $194.75 for 36 packs, you are paying $5.41/pack, well below the $6.64 EV. Individual packs at $6.93 are marginally −EV; bundles at $38.31 are marginally +EV. The difference is small enough that format preference is a reasonable tiebreaker.
The standard caution applies: 35% of boxes still lose money, and the wide variance means a bad box feels bad regardless of what the math says. Opening is entertainment. Price it as such.
If you are buying sealed for investment
Sealed booster boxes at current market prices are mathematically attractive — you are buying a 1.23× expected return on the card value. The main risk is that card prices correct faster than sealed prices rise. Perfect Order has not attracted the same level of hype as sets like Ascended Heroes or Prismatic Evolutions, so the demand ceiling for sealed may be lower. If sealed prices catch up to card EV (i.e., boxes approach $239), the opportunity closes. Buy boxes now, watch for that convergence.
If you already have cards to sell
Meowth ex SIR (#121) at $207 is a strong hold only if you believe it has further appreciation ahead. More likely, as more Perfect Order product is opened, the $207 price will soften toward the $94–$77 range that the other SIRs trade at — particularly if a reprint or adjacent card diverts demand. If you already hold Meowth ex SIR and are sitting on a significant gain, selling into current demand is a reasonable decision.
Frequently Asked Questions
Is it worth opening Perfect Order packs?
Booster boxes (~$194.75 USD) are +EV at current market prices — the expected card value per box is ~$239 (1.23× return). Bundles ($38.31) are marginally +EV at 1.04×. Single packs ($6.93) are marginally −EV at 0.96×. The median box outcome is a small profit (+$18), but 34.8% of boxes still lose money due to SIR variance. More packs means better odds.
What is the most expensive Perfect Order card right now?
Meowth ex SIR (#121) at approximately USD $207.70 (~SGD $266). Mega Zygarde ex MHR (#124) at USD $171.61 (~SGD $220) is second despite being the rarest card in the set. Mega Zygarde ex SIR (#120) at USD $94.26 (~SGD $121) is third.
What is the cheapest SIR in Perfect Order?
Jacinthe (#122) at USD $32.26 (~SGD $41) is currently the lowest-value SIR in the set. This is a relatively high floor compared to many sets where the cheapest SIR sits at $15–$20.
How many SIRs are in Perfect Order?
6 Special Illustration Rares (#118–123) plus 1 Mega Hyper Rare (#124), for 7 premium rarity cards total. This is a smaller SIR pool than most SV-era sets.
Are the URs in Perfect Order worth pulling?
Significantly more so than in most sets. The UR pool averages $7.73 USD — cards like Meowth ex (#107) at $21.50, Poké Pad (#113) at $14.31, and Mega Starmie ex (#102) at $13.98 are meaningful pulls. The UR slot contributes $0.64 EV per pack, which is nearly as much as the IR slot in some other sets.
When should I expect Perfect Order SIR prices to drop?
Meowth ex SIR is the main candidate for correction — at $207 it is priced significantly above all other SIRs in the set. As more product is opened and supply catches up with demand, a 30–50% correction to the $100–$140 range is plausible over the next 3–6 months. The other SIRs ($73–$94) are more stable, trading closer together and backed by multiple popular Pokemon.
Disclaimer: All card prices are from PriceCharting market data (USD) as of May 2026 and will change. SGD equivalents use an approximate 1.28 exchange rate (May 2026). Pull rates are community estimates from approximately 3,500 pack openings; The Pokémon Company does not publish official pull rates. Monte Carlo results use 100,000 simulated openings. This is not financial advice. Verify current prices on tcgTalk or Carousell before making any buying or selling decisions.