An interactive 2025 MLS Chrome pack odds calculator built on Topps' official published odds. Enter how many packs you're opening — pick any refractor, parallel, autograph or insert — and get your live chance of at least one, the expected count, and how many packs it takes for a 50/90/95% shot.
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By tcgtalk
Apr 2026· 5 min read
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Configurations
5
Odds Rows
330
Autographs
45
Base Parallels
27
2025 MLS Chrome Pack Odds Calculator
Set how many packs you’re opening, choose your product configuration, then pick the card you’re chasing from the dropdown. The big figure is your chance of pulling at least one of that parallel, autograph or insert across your packs; the table below prices every parallel at once. All rates are Topps’ official published odds.
Product configuration
How many packs are you opening?
packs
What are you chasing?
24 packs · Hobby · Topps 1995 Autograph Cards Green
61%
chance of at least one Topps 1995 Autograph Cards Green across 24 packs
≈ 0.92 expectedbase 1 in 26≈ 18 packs for 50%
Packs to hit
Parallel
Per pack
≥1 in 24
Expected
Topps 1995 Autograph Cards Green
1:26
61%
0.92
Topps 1995 Autograph Cards Purple
1:29
57%
0.83
Topps 1995 Autograph Cards Gold
1:36
49%
0.67
Topps 1995 Autograph Cards
1:45
42%
0.53
Topps 1995 Autograph Cards Pearl
1:47
40%
0.51
Topps 1995 Autograph Cards Orange
1:56
35%
0.43
Chrome Autograph Cards Aqua Wave
1:87
24%
0.28
Chrome Autograph Cards Aqua
1:88
24%
0.27
Chrome Autograph Cards Blue Wave
1:93
23%
0.26
Chrome Autograph Cards Blue
1:108
20%
0.22
Chrome Autograph Cards Green Wave
1:119
18%
0.20
Topps 1995 Autograph Cards Black
1:119
18%
0.20
Chrome Autograph Cards Green
1:129
17%
0.19
Chrome Autograph Cards Purple Wave
1:136
16%
0.18
Chrome Autograph Cards Purple
1:156
14%
0.15
Chrome Autograph Cards Gold Wave
1:160
14%
0.15
Chrome Autograph Cards Gold
1:182
12%
0.13
Topps 1995 Autograph Cards Red
1:231
9.9%
0.10
Chrome Autograph Cards Orange Wave
1:301
7.7%
0.08
Chrome Autograph Cards Orange
1:353
6.6%
0.07
Chrome Autograph Cards Black Wave
1:705
3.3%
0.03
MLS Renaissance Autograph Cards
1:718
3.3%
0.03
Chrome Autograph Cards
1:786
3.0%
0.03
Chrome Autograph Cards Black
1:836
2.8%
0.03
MLS Renaissance Autograph Cards Gold
1:1,121
2.1%
0.02
Topps 1995 Autograph Cards Superfractor
1:1,154
2.1%
0.02
Chrome Autograph Cards Red Wave
1:1,409
1.7%
0.02
Chrome Dual Autograph Cards
1:1,604
1.5%
0.01
Chrome Autograph Cards Red
1:1,656
1.4%
0.01
MLS Renaissance Autograph Cards Ruby
1:2,346
1.0%
0.01
Chrome Dual Autograph Cards Orange
1:2,680
0.9%
0.01
MLS Debut Patch Autograph Cards
1:4,280
0.6%
0.01
Chrome Dual Autograph Cards Black
1:6,337
0.4%
0
Chrome Autograph Cards Superfractor
1:8,238
0.3%
0
Chrome Dual Autograph Cards Red
1:13,181
0.2%
0
MLS Renaissance Autograph Cards Platinum
1:16,899
0.1%
0
Rookie Arrival Autograph Patch Cards
1:47,075
0.1%
0
MLS Renaissance Autograph Relic Cards Gold
1:54,920
0.0%
0
Chrome Dual Autograph Cards Superfractor
1:59,913
0.0%
0
MLS Renaissance Autograph Relic Cards Ruby
1:109,840
0.0%
0
Rookie Arrival Autograph Patch Cards Blue
1:131,808
0.0%
0
MLS Anniversary Autograph Book Superfractor
1:659,040
0.0%
0
MLS Renaissance Autograph Relic Cards Platinum
1:659,040
0.0%
0
MLS Renaissance Autograph MLS Logo Patch Card Platinum
1:659,040
0.0%
0
Rookie Arrival Autograph Patch Card Gold
1:659,040
0.0%
0
These are Topps’ official published odds for 2025 MLS Chrome (Hobby). A parallel’s rate is for any card in that parallel — a specific player is far rarer. The model treats each pack as an independent draw at the stated rate; real collation clusters hits.
tcgTalk Topps Tools
Browse every Topps odds calculator
Compare pull rates across Chrome, Bowman, Finest, UFC, F1 and more — every set's official odds in one place.
Topps prints the pull rate of every parallel as “1 in N packs.” The calculator turns that into the numbers people actually ask for:
Chance of ≥1 — the probability at least one of your packs has that card, 1 − (1 − 1/N)^packs.
Expected — the average number across your packs, packs / N.
Packs to a 50 / 90 / 95% shot — solving the same formula backwards, ln(1 − t) / ln(1 − 1/N).
Two honest caveats. A parallel’s odds are for any card in that parallel — a specific player is much rarer. And the model assumes each pack is an independent draw at the stated rate; real Topps collation can cluster or space out hits, so a live box can over- or under-shoot.
Disclaimer: Odds are Topps’ official published figures for 2025 MLS Chrome. The calculator models each pack as an independent draw at the stated per-pack rate; real openings vary. Not financial advice.
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