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Configurations
5
Odds Rows
330
Autographs
45
Base Parallels
27
2025 MLS Chrome Pack Odds Calculator
Set how many packs you’re opening, choose your product configuration, then pick the card you’re chasing from the dropdown. The big figure is your chance of pulling at least one of that parallel, autograph or insert across your packs; the table below prices every parallel at once. All rates are Topps’ official published odds.
Product configuration
How many packs are you opening?
packs
What are you chasing?
24 packs · Hobby · Topps 1995 Autograph Cards Green
61%
chance of at least one Topps 1995 Autograph Cards Green across 24 packs
≈ 0.92 expectedbase 1 in 26≈ 18 packs for 50%
Packs to hit
Every parallel in Hobby
| Parallel | Per pack | ≥1 in 24 | Expected |
|---|---|---|---|
| Base Parallels | |||
| Base Cards | 1:1 | 100% | — |
| Base Cards Prism | 1:5 | 100% | 4.80 |
| Base Cards Refractor | 1:6 | 99% | 4 |
| Base Cards Aqua | 1:18 | 75% | 1.33 |
| Base Cards Blue Lava | 1:20 | 71% | 1.20 |
| Base Cards Blue | 1:23 | 66% | 1.04 |
| Base Cards Green | 1:38 | 47% | 0.63 |
| Base Cards White Lava | 1:40 | 46% | 0.60 |
| Base Cards Purple | 1:49 | 39% | 0.49 |
| Base Cards Purple Wave | 1:49 | 39% | 0.49 |
| Base Cards Red Lava | 1:60 | 33% | 0.40 |
| Base Cards Gold | 1:75 | 28% | 0.32 |
| Base Cards Gold Wave | 1:75 | 28% | 0.32 |
| Base Cards Pearl | 1:126 | 17% | 0.19 |
| Base Cards Orange | 1:151 | 15% | 0.16 |
| Base Cards Orange Wave | 1:151 | 15% | 0.16 |
| Base Cards Black | 1:386 | 6.0% | 0.06 |
| Base Cards Black Wave | 1:386 | 6.0% | 0.06 |
| Base Cards Red | 1:729 | 3.2% | 0.03 |
| Base Cards Red Wave | 1:729 | 3.2% | 0.03 |
| Base Cards Frozenfractor | 1:1,099 | 2.2% | 0.02 |
| Base Cards Superfractor | 1:6,657 | 0.4% | 0 |
| Base Card Super Short Prints | 1:9,283 | 0.3% | 0 |
| Base Card Super Short Prints Orange | 1:18,307 | 0.1% | 0 |
| Base Card Super Short Prints Black | 1:47,075 | 0.1% | 0 |
| Base Card Super Short Prints Red | 1:82,380 | 0.0% | 0 |
| Base Card Super Short Prints Superfractor | 1:329,520 | 0.0% | 0 |
| Inserts | |||
| Topps 1995 | 1:1 | 100% | — |
| Elimination | 1:8 | 96% | 3 |
| Fast Lane | 1:8 | 96% | 3 |
| Topps 1995 Green | 1:12 | 88% | 2 |
| Big City Strikers | 1:12 | 88% | 2 |
| Class of Their Own | 1:12 | 88% | 2 |
| Topps 1995 Purple | 1:16 | 79% | 1.50 |
| Topps 1995 Gold | 1:23 | 66% | 1.04 |
| Topps 1995 Pearl | 1:39 | 46% | 0.62 |
| Topps 1995 Orange | 1:47 | 40% | 0.51 |
| Topps 1995 Black | 1:116 | 19% | 0.21 |
| Topps 1995 Red | 1:231 | 9.9% | 0.10 |
| Big City Strikers Skylight Variation | 1:240 | 9.5% | 0.10 |
| Elimination Green | 1:310 | 7.5% | 0.08 |
| Fast Lane Green | 1:310 | 7.5% | 0.08 |
| Elimination Purple | 1:409 | 5.7% | 0.06 |
| Fast Lane Purple | 1:409 | 5.7% | 0.06 |
| Big City Strikers Green | 1:465 | 5.0% | 0.05 |
| Class of Their Own Green | 1:465 | 5.0% | 0.05 |
| Pearlers | 1:480 | 4.9% | 0.05 |
| Big City Strikers Purple | 1:614 | 3.8% | 0.04 |
| Class of Their Own Purple | 1:614 | 3.8% | 0.04 |
| Elimination Gold | 1:614 | 3.8% | 0.04 |
| Fast Lane Gold | 1:614 | 3.8% | 0.04 |
| Big City Strikers Gold | 1:921 | 2.6% | 0.03 |
| Class of Their Own Gold | 1:921 | 2.6% | 0.03 |
| Topps 1995 Superfractor | 1:1,137 | 2.1% | 0.02 |
| Elimination Orange | 1:1,228 | 1.9% | 0.02 |
| Fast Lane Orange | 1:1,228 | 1.9% | 0.02 |
| Helix | 1:1,382 | 1.7% | 0.02 |
| Big City Strikers Orange | 1:1,841 | 1.3% | 0.01 |
| Class of Their Own Orange | 1:1,841 | 1.3% | 0.01 |
| Pearlers Cherry Pearl | 1:2,305 | 1.0% | 0.01 |
| Elimination Black | 1:3,066 | 0.8% | 0.01 |
| Fast Lane Black | 1:3,066 | 0.8% | 0.01 |
| Big City Strikers Black | 1:4,609 | 0.5% | 0.01 |
| Class of Their Own Black | 1:4,609 | 0.5% | 0.01 |
| Pearlers White Pearl | 1:4,609 | 0.5% | 0.01 |
| Elimination Red | 1:6,160 | 0.4% | 0 |
| Fast Lane Red | 1:6,160 | 0.4% | 0 |
| Big City Strikers Red | 1:9,283 | 0.3% | 0 |
| Class of Their Own Red | 1:9,283 | 0.3% | 0 |
| Mvp | 1:13,730 | 0.2% | 0 |
| The Grail | 1:13,730 | 0.2% | 0 |
| Pearlers Golden Pearl | 1:22,726 | 0.1% | 0 |
| Elimination Superfractor | 1:29,957 | 0.1% | 0 |
| Fast Lane Superfractor | 1:29,957 | 0.1% | 0 |
| Big City Strikers Superfractor | 1:47,075 | 0.1% | 0 |
| Class of Their Own Superfractor | 1:47,075 | 0.1% | 0 |
| Big City Strikers Skylight Variation Superfractor | 1:65,904 | 0.0% | 0 |
| Helix Superfractor | 1:131,808 | 0.0% | 0 |
| MLS Trophy Superfractor | 1:659,040 | 0.0% | 0 |
| Autographs | |||
| Topps 1995 Autograph Cards Green | 1:26 | 61% | 0.92 |
| Topps 1995 Autograph Cards Purple | 1:29 | 57% | 0.83 |
| Topps 1995 Autograph Cards Gold | 1:36 | 49% | 0.67 |
| Topps 1995 Autograph Cards | 1:45 | 42% | 0.53 |
| Topps 1995 Autograph Cards Pearl | 1:47 | 40% | 0.51 |
| Topps 1995 Autograph Cards Orange | 1:56 | 35% | 0.43 |
| Chrome Autograph Cards Aqua Wave | 1:87 | 24% | 0.28 |
| Chrome Autograph Cards Aqua | 1:88 | 24% | 0.27 |
| Chrome Autograph Cards Blue Wave | 1:93 | 23% | 0.26 |
| Chrome Autograph Cards Blue | 1:108 | 20% | 0.22 |
| Chrome Autograph Cards Green Wave | 1:119 | 18% | 0.20 |
| Topps 1995 Autograph Cards Black | 1:119 | 18% | 0.20 |
| Chrome Autograph Cards Green | 1:129 | 17% | 0.19 |
| Chrome Autograph Cards Purple Wave | 1:136 | 16% | 0.18 |
| Chrome Autograph Cards Purple | 1:156 | 14% | 0.15 |
| Chrome Autograph Cards Gold Wave | 1:160 | 14% | 0.15 |
| Chrome Autograph Cards Gold | 1:182 | 12% | 0.13 |
| Topps 1995 Autograph Cards Red | 1:231 | 9.9% | 0.10 |
| Chrome Autograph Cards Orange Wave | 1:301 | 7.7% | 0.08 |
| Chrome Autograph Cards Orange | 1:353 | 6.6% | 0.07 |
| Chrome Autograph Cards Black Wave | 1:705 | 3.3% | 0.03 |
| MLS Renaissance Autograph Cards | 1:718 | 3.3% | 0.03 |
| Chrome Autograph Cards | 1:786 | 3.0% | 0.03 |
| Chrome Autograph Cards Black | 1:836 | 2.8% | 0.03 |
| MLS Renaissance Autograph Cards Gold | 1:1,121 | 2.1% | 0.02 |
| Topps 1995 Autograph Cards Superfractor | 1:1,154 | 2.1% | 0.02 |
| Chrome Autograph Cards Red Wave | 1:1,409 | 1.7% | 0.02 |
| Chrome Dual Autograph Cards | 1:1,604 | 1.5% | 0.01 |
| Chrome Autograph Cards Red | 1:1,656 | 1.4% | 0.01 |
| MLS Renaissance Autograph Cards Ruby | 1:2,346 | 1.0% | 0.01 |
| Chrome Dual Autograph Cards Orange | 1:2,680 | 0.9% | 0.01 |
| MLS Debut Patch Autograph Cards | 1:4,280 | 0.6% | 0.01 |
| Chrome Dual Autograph Cards Black | 1:6,337 | 0.4% | 0 |
| Chrome Autograph Cards Superfractor | 1:8,238 | 0.3% | 0 |
| Chrome Dual Autograph Cards Red | 1:13,181 | 0.2% | 0 |
| MLS Renaissance Autograph Cards Platinum | 1:16,899 | 0.1% | 0 |
| Rookie Arrival Autograph Patch Cards | 1:47,075 | 0.1% | 0 |
| MLS Renaissance Autograph Relic Cards Gold | 1:54,920 | 0.0% | 0 |
| Chrome Dual Autograph Cards Superfractor | 1:59,913 | 0.0% | 0 |
| MLS Renaissance Autograph Relic Cards Ruby | 1:109,840 | 0.0% | 0 |
| Rookie Arrival Autograph Patch Cards Blue | 1:131,808 | 0.0% | 0 |
| MLS Anniversary Autograph Book Superfractor | 1:659,040 | 0.0% | 0 |
| MLS Renaissance Autograph Relic Cards Platinum | 1:659,040 | 0.0% | 0 |
| MLS Renaissance Autograph MLS Logo Patch Card Platinum | 1:659,040 | 0.0% | 0 |
| Rookie Arrival Autograph Patch Card Gold | 1:659,040 | 0.0% | 0 |
| Relics & Memorabilia | |||
| MLS x Apple TV Match Worn Patch Cards | 1:11,171 | 0.2% | 0 |
These are Topps’ official published odds for 2025 MLS Chrome (Hobby). A parallel’s rate is for any card in that parallel — a specific player is far rarer. The model treats each pack as an independent draw at the stated rate; real collation clusters hits.
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Compare pull rates across Chrome, Bowman, Finest, UFC, F1 and more — every set's official odds in one place.
How the Odds Are Calculated
Topps prints the pull rate of every parallel as “1 in N packs.” The calculator turns that into the numbers people actually ask for:
- Chance of ≥1 — the probability at least one of your packs has that card,
1 − (1 − 1/N)^packs. - Expected — the average number across your packs,
packs / N. - Packs to a 50 / 90 / 95% shot — solving the same formula backwards,
ln(1 − t) / ln(1 − 1/N).
Two honest caveats. A parallel’s odds are for any card in that parallel — a specific player is much rarer. And the model assumes each pack is an independent draw at the stated rate; real Topps collation can cluster or space out hits, so a live box can over- or under-shoot.
Disclaimer: Odds are Topps’ official published figures for 2025 MLS Chrome. The calculator models each pack as an independent draw at the stated per-pack rate; real openings vary. Not financial advice.
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