Card prices are sourced from PriceCharting market data (USD). SGD equivalents use an approximate 1.28 exchange rate. Prices reflect current secondary market rates and will change as the set ages — SIR prices in particular tend to be front-loaded and often correct 30–60% within 6 months of release.
The Short Answer
Opening Ascended Heroes is profitable on average at Singapore retail prices — but unprofitable at secondary market prices. The expected card value per pack is USD $10.9 against a retail pack price of approximately USD $5.63 (SGD ~$7.20):
| Product | Retail Price (USD) | Market Price (USD) | Expected Card Value | Return at Retail | Verdict |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Booster Pack | ~$5.63 | ~$21.73 | $10.9 | 1.92× | +EV at retail. −EV at market. |
| Booster Bundle (6 packs) | ~$33.78 | ~$86.89 | $65.42 | 1.95× | +EV at retail. −EV at market. |
| ~Break-even bundle | ~$65.42 USD (SGD ~$83.74) | $65.42 | 1.0× | Expected value equals cost. | |
| Booster Box (36 packs) | ~$202.68 | ~$782.28 | $392.52 | 1.93× | +EV at retail. −EV at market. |
| ~Break-even box | ~$392.52 USD (SGD ~$502) | $392.52 | 1.0× | Expected value equals cost. | |
The critical caveat: the return ratio is the average across 100,000 simulated openings. The median outcome — what most individual openers actually experience — is still a loss even at retail, because the math is driven by low-probability, high-value SIR and Hyper Rare pulls. Opening a single pack at retail wins only 16.3% of the time. A full box at retail wins 65.8% of the time. More packs means more chances at an SIR.
Card Prices by Rarity
Ascended Heroes has seven rarity tiers above common. Each tier has a distinct pull rate and a distinct price distribution. Here is the full breakdown, using current market prices.
Mega Hyper Rares (◇) — #294–295
Two cards. The rarest printings in the set, featuring golden full-art treatment. Estimated pull rate ~1 in 200 packs.
| # | Card | Price (USD) | Price (SGD est.) |
|---|---|---|---|
| 294 | Mega Charizard Y ex | $608.01 | ~$778 |
| 295 | Mega Dragonite ex | $310.12 | ~$397 |
Special Illustration Rares (★★ SIR) — #275–293
19 cards. The main chase tier for most collectors. Estimated pull rate ~1 in 110 packs. Price range is extreme — from $30 to $1,293.19.
| # | Card | Price (USD) | Price (SGD est.) |
|---|---|---|---|
| 284 | Mega Gengar ex | $1,293.19 | ~$1,655 |
| 276 | Pikachu ex | $1,178.86 | ~$1,509 |
| 290 | Mega Dragonite ex | $849.54 | ~$1,087 |
| 281 | Team Rocket's Mewtwo ex | $458.84 | ~$587 |
| 277 | Pikachu ex | $435.93 | ~$558 |
| 280 | Lillie's Clefairy ex | $197.16 | ~$252 |
| 286 | N's Zoroark ex | $182.50 | ~$234 |
| 289 | Steven's Metagross ex | $99.99 | ~$128 |
| 275 | Mega Froslass ex | $88.81 | ~$114 |
| 287 | Marnie's Grimmsnarl ex | $79.25 | ~$101 |
| 285 | Mega Scrafty ex | $70.25 | ~$89.92 |
| 288 | Fezandipiti ex | $69.26 | ~$88.65 |
| 279 | Iono's Bellibolt ex | $66.58 | ~$85.22 |
| 283 | Mega Hawlucha ex | $66.43 | ~$85.03 |
| 282 | Mega Diancie ex | $64.15 | ~$82.11 |
| 291 | Canari | $44.00 | ~$56.32 |
| 278 | Mega Eelektross ex | $38.95 | ~$49.86 |
| 292 | Iris's Fighting Spirit | $37.13 | ~$47.53 |
| 293 | Surfer | $29.99 | ~$38.39 |
Pool average: $281.62 USD. Pool median: $79.25 USD. The mean is heavily skewed by Mega Gengar and Pikachu — if you pull an SIR, you are most likely to get something near the $79.25 median, not the $281.62 average.
Mega Attack Rares (☆★) — #265–274
10 cards. Full-art Mega Pokemon with a distinctive attack-pose treatment. Estimated pull rate ~1 in 50 packs (2%).
| # | Card | Price (USD) | Price (SGD est.) |
|---|---|---|---|
| 274 | Mega Feraligatr ex | $170.00 | ~$218 |
| 272 | Mega Meganium ex | $92.07 | ~$118 |
| 269 | Mega Gengar ex | $75.00 | ~$96.00 |
| 273 | Mega Emboar ex | $66.49 | ~$85.11 |
| 271 | Mega Dragonite ex | $58.00 | ~$74.24 |
| 265 | Mega Froslass ex | $15.14 | ~$19.38 |
| 267 | Mega Diancie ex | $9.99 | ~$12.79 |
| 268 | Mega Hawlucha ex | $9.00 | ~$11.52 |
| 270 | Mega Scrafty ex | $6.74 | ~$8.63 |
| 266 | Mega Eelektross ex | $6.24 | ~$7.99 |
Pool average: $50.87 USD. Pool median: $36.57 USD. Note that 5 of the 10 Mega Attack Rares are valued below $16 — if you pull one, you have a 50% chance of getting something worth under $37 USD.
Illustration Rares (★ IR) — #218–250
33 cards. The most commonly pulled "notable" rarity — expected roughly once every 9 packs. Most IRs are worth $4–$15, with Psyduck as a significant outlier.
| # | Card | Price (USD) | Notes |
|---|---|---|---|
| 226 | Psyduck | $98.65 | Chase IR — high demand |
| 238 | Team Rocket's Mimikyu | $29.07 | |
| 218 | Erika's Tangela | $27.00 | |
| 232 | Marill | $15.50 | |
| 239 | Team Rocket's Dugtrio | $14.99 | |
| 244 | Cynthia's Spiritomb | $14.00 | |
| 234 | Banette | $12.73 | |
| 225 | Scorbunny | $10.88 | |
| 231 | Iono's Wattrel | $10.64 | |
| 221 | Budew | $10.25 | |
| 240 | Hitmontop | $9.56 | |
| 247 | Dreepy | $9.50 | |
| 236 | Slurpuff | $9.40 | |
| 248 | Drakloak | $9.26 | |
| 222 | Ethan's Magcargo | $8.60 | |
| 228 | Weavile | $8.32 | |
| 219 | Beautifly | $8.00 | |
| 246 | Mawile | $7.88 | |
| 243 | Mightyena | $7.61 | |
| 235 | Togekiss | $7.50 | |
| 233 | Misdreavus | $6.84 | |
| 227 | Snorunt | $6.44 | |
| 223 | Numel | $6.42 | |
| 241 | Medicham | $5.92 | |
| 237 | Hop's Trevenant | $5.83 | |
| 242 | Carbink | $5.55 | |
| 249 | Larry's Staraptor | $5.31 | |
| 250 | Fan Rotom | $5.00 | |
| 220 | Dustox | $4.51 | |
| 245 | Galarian Obstagoon | $4.41 | |
| 224 | Salazzle | $4.00 | |
| 230 | Vikavolt | $3.50 | |
| 229 | Heliolisk | $3.00 |
Pool average: $12 USD. Pool median: $8 USD. Psyduck alone skews the mean upward — without it, the average IR is closer to $9.
Ultra Rares (★★) — #251–264
14 cards. Full art trainers and a few Pokemon ex. Expected roughly once per 17 packs (6%). Lower price floor than IRs — most are worth $1–$9.
| # | Card | Price (USD) |
|---|---|---|
| 256 | Boss's Orders: Corbeau | $9.21 |
| 264 | Ultra Ball | $7.00 |
| 257 | Canari | $4.99 |
| 262 | N's PP Up | $4.09 |
| 251 | Sprigatito ex | $3.79 |
| 253 | Mega Audino ex | $2.98 |
| 254 | Anthea & Concordia | $2.54 |
| 263 | Team Rocket's Transceiver | $2.46 |
| 255 | Black Belt's Training | $1.99 |
| 258 | Cheren | $1.99 |
| 261 | Jamming Tower | $1.94 |
| 260 | Glass Trumpet | $1.74 |
| 252 | Stunfisk ex | $1.52 |
| 259 | Counter Gain | $1.12 |
Pool average: $3.38 USD. Pulling an Ultra Rare is unlikely to make a significant dent in your ETB cost — these are the value floor of the "rare" hit slots.
Double Rares (★★ ex) — #001–179
39 ex and Mega ex cards in the base set. Expected roughly once every 5 packs (21%). Most are worth $1–$4, with the Mega Charizard Y ex and Mega Froslass ex base printings as the higher-value exceptions.
Pool average: $2.35 USD. These are your bread-and-butter hits — consistent but low in individual value.
Chase Cards: Top 15 by Value
Three cards — Mega Gengar ex SIR, Pikachu ex SIR (#276), and Mega Dragonite ex SIR — account for a disproportionate share of the total SIR pool value. Pulling any one of them transforms an otherwise normal opening session into a significant profit. Not pulling any of them, even after many packs, is the far more common experience.
Expected Value Per Pack
Using current PriceCharting market prices weighted by pull rates from 100-pack community data and SIR community estimates, here is where the expected value of each pack comes from:
| Component | Pull Rate | Pool Avg (USD) | EV Contribution |
|---|---|---|---|
| Bulk (commons + uncommons) | 100% | $0.80 | $0.80 |
| Reverse Holo slot | 100% | $1.80 | $1.80 |
| Standard Rare (★) | 58.6% | $0.75 | $0.44 |
| Double Rare (★★ ex) | 21.0% | $2.35 | $0.49 |
| Illustration Rare (★ IR) | 11.0% | $12.00 | $1.32 |
| Ultra Rare (#251–264) | 6.0% | $3.38 | $0.20 |
| Mega Attack Rare (#265–274) | 2.0% | $50.87 | $1.02 |
| SIR (#275–293) | 0.9% | $281.62 | $2.53 |
| Mega Hyper Rare (#294–295) | 0.5% | $459.06 | $2.30 |
Two things stand out in this table:
- SIRs and Hyper Rares together contribute $4.83 of the $10.9 EV — that's 44% of expected value from a combined pull rate of just 1.4%. Skip those two rows and EV drops to about $6.07 per pack.
- IRs are the most consistent high-value slot — at 11% pull rate with $12 average value, they contribute more EV per pack than Double Rares despite being pulled half as often.
- Ultra Rares contribute almost nothing — $0.20 EV per pack. The full art trainer slot sounds exciting but the actual card values are mostly under $3.
Monte Carlo: Win vs Loss Odds
The EV table above gives averages. What actually happens to individual openers is driven by variance. The charts below show results from 100,000 simulated openings, drawing from the actual card pool prices and pull rates. When an IR is pulled, it is randomly selected from the 33 actual IRs at their actual prices — not from an average.
Each bar = $50 profit/loss range. ··· represents an empty gap in outcomes. 100,000 simulated openings. Prices from PriceCharting (USD), June 2026.
Win / Loss summary across all formats
| Scenario | Cost | Win % | Loss % | Median P/L | P5 (bad luck) | P95 (good luck) | Avg Return |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Pack — retail (~$5.63) | $5.63 | 16.3% | 83.7% | −$2 | −$2 | +$8 | 1.92× |
| Bundle — retail (~$33.78) | $33.78 | 33.8% | 66.2% | −$5 | −$12 | +$178 | 1.95× |
| Box — retail (~$202.68) | $202.68 | 65.8% | 34.2% | +$49 | −$48 | +$919 | 1.93× |
| Pack — market (~$21.73) | $21.73 | 3.4% | 96.6% | −$18 | −$18 | −$8 | 0.50× |
| Bundle — market (~$86.89) | $86.89 | 13.2% | 86.8% | −$58 | −$66 | +$119 | 0.75× |
| Box — market (~$782.28) | $782.28 | 12.2% | 87.8% | −$530 | −$628 | +$352 | 0.50× |
P5 = the outcome in the worst 5% of openings. P95 = the outcome in the best 5%. Win = profit > $0. Market prices derived from the secondary-market booster pack rate of ~$21.73/pack. Simulation: 100,000 runs, seed 42.
What these numbers mean in practice:
- Opening a single pack at retail: 83.7% of the time you lose a small amount (median −$2). Only 16.3% of packs return more than you paid. The "win" happens when you hit a good IR, MAR, or any SIR/MHR.
- Opening a full box at retail: the odds flip — 65.8% of boxes are profitable, with a median profit of +$49. The box gives enough packs that SIR probability becomes meaningful.
- Opening at market price: the median is a loss across every format. Even the P95 outcome for a 6-pack bundle at market is only +$119 — a modest win that requires a lucky SIR pull. P95 for a single market-priced pack is still −$8.
- The "real data" 100-pack opening cited elsewhere — SGD $1,300 above retail, 0 SIRs pulled — is consistent with these distributions. At above-market cost basis, even the P95 outcome returns well under the cost of product. It was not bad luck.
The Break-Even Price
If the expected value per pack is $10.9 USD, the break-even prices for each product format are:
Singapore context: Retail packs in Singapore cost approximately SGD $7–$9 each (USD $5.50–$7), well below the break-even pack price of $10.9. This is why opening at retail is mathematically justifiable for Ascended Heroes right now: the card market has moved significantly above the retail cost of the product. Bundles and boxes sourced at retail follow the same logic — retail prices sit at roughly half of break-even cost.
However, this break-even assumes current card prices hold. SIR prices are the most volatile component. If the top three SIRs (Mega Gengar, Pikachu, Mega Dragonite) correct by 50%, the EV per pack drops from $10.9 to approximately $8.49 — which moves the break-even bundle from $65.42 to about $51, and the break-even box from $392.52 to about $306. At that point, retail opening remains comfortably +EV but by a smaller margin.
Sensitivity to SIR price changes
| SIR Price Scenario | EV per Pack | Break-even Bundle (USD) | Break-even Box (USD) |
|---|---|---|---|
| Current prices (June 2026) | $10.9 | ~$65.42 | ~$392.52 |
| SIRs −25% | ~$9.70 | ~$58.18 | ~$349.06 |
| SIRs −50% | ~$8.49 | ~$50.93 | ~$305.59 |
| SIRs −75% | ~$7.28 | ~$43.69 | ~$262.12 |
Even a 75% SIR correction (here, scaling both the SIR and Mega Hyper Rare pools) only brings the break-even box price to approximately $262 — still above Singapore retail (~$202.68), meaning retail box opening stays positive EV. Individual SIR depreciation of this magnitude has occurred in other popular sets (Prismatic Evolutions Flareon SIR dropped from ~$400 to $150–$160). It is not guaranteed, but it is within the range of historical outcomes.
What You Should Actually Do
If you want a specific card
Buy the single. Use the tcgTalk price comparison to find the best current Singapore price across Carousell, Facebook, and SNKRDUNK. For any card worth more than approximately $30 USD, buying the single is almost certain to be cheaper than opening enough packs to pull it. The expected cost to pull a specific SIR (1 of 19 in the pool) is roughly 110 packs × 1/19 chance ≈ 2090 packs — thousands of dollars in product to target a single card.
If you want to open packs
Buy at Singapore retail. Set a firm budget before you start. A single pack at retail wins 16.3% of the time — mostly losses. A full booster box at retail wins 65.8% of the time and has a median profit of +$49. More packs means more SIR probability. Individual packs from a local game store (LGS) are the most flexible entry point; booster bundles (6 packs) offer a mid-range format; booster boxes give the best per-pack value at retail.
Opening is entertainment. Price it that way regardless of format.
If you are buying sealed for investment
Sealed product bought at Singapore retail is positive-EV on day one based on current card prices. The risk is that card prices correct before you sell. Sealed product historically holds value better than individual cards because it maintains optionality — buyers pay a premium for the opening experience. Booster boxes give the most packs per dollar and are the preferred investment vehicle. Do not buy sealed at above-retail prices for investment — at the ~$782.28 market box price you are immediately buying into a deeply negative expected return on the cards (0.50×), and sealed price appreciation at above-retail entry is far from guaranteed.
If you already have cards to sell
SIR prices are front-loaded — demand is highest in the weeks after release and typically softens over 3–6 months as more product enters the market and the hype cycle moves on. If you pulled an SIR or a Mega Attack Rare with strong current prices, selling now (or within the next 2–4 months) is likely to yield better prices than holding for 12+ months unless you believe this set has exceptional long-term demand (similar to Pokemon 151 or Evolving Skies).
Buy Ascended Heroes on TCGPlayer
Frequently Asked Questions
Is it worth opening Ascended Heroes packs?
At Singapore retail prices (~SGD $7–$9/pack), the expected card value per pack is SGD ~$13.95 — making retail opening mathematically profitable on average (roughly 2× return). At secondary market prices, expected returns fall below cost (0.50× return). The median outcome is still a loss even at retail for small quantities — profitability depends on pulling SIRs, which are rare. A box at retail wins 65.8% of the time; a single pack wins 16.3% of the time.
What is the most expensive Ascended Heroes card right now?
Mega Gengar ex SIR (#284) at approximately USD $1,293.19 (~SGD $1,655). Pikachu ex SIR (#276) at USD $1,178.86 (~SGD $1,509) and Mega Dragonite ex SIR (#290) at USD $849.54 (~SGD $1,087) are second and third.
What is the cheapest SIR in Ascended Heroes?
Surfer (#293) at USD $29.99 (~SGD $38.39) is currently the lowest-value SIR in the set. Iris's Fighting Spirit (#292) at USD $37.13 is close behind.
Are Illustration Rares worth anything in Ascended Heroes?
Most IRs are worth USD $5–$15 (SGD $7–$20). Psyduck (#226) is the significant outlier at USD $99 (~SGD $126). Pulling an IR is not a bad outcome — at 11% per pack, you can expect around one per ETB, and that covers a significant portion of your pack cost on its own.
When should I expect Ascended Heroes SIR prices to drop?
Historical patterns in SV era sets suggest the first meaningful correction comes 2–4 months post-release as hype softens and more product enters secondary markets. A 25–40% correction in that window is common for all but the most iconic cards. Pokemon 151 and Prismatic Evolutions SIRs followed this pattern before eventually recovering on a 12–24 month horizon. Buy during post-correction troughs if you're a collector rather than a speculator.
How many SIRs are in Ascended Heroes?
19 Special Illustration Rares (#275–293) plus 2 Mega Hyper Rares (#294–295), for 21 premium rarity cards above the standard Mega Attack Rare tier.
Disclaimer: All card prices are from PriceCharting market data (USD) as of June 2026 and are indicative of current secondary market rates — they will change. SGD equivalents use an approximate 1.28 exchange rate (June 2026). Pull rates are community estimates from aggregate opening data; The Pokemon Company does not publish official pull rates. Monte Carlo results use 100,000 simulated openings. This is not financial advice. Verify current prices on tcgTalk or Carousell before making any buying or selling decisions.