Harga kartu diambil dari data pasar PriceCharting (USD). Nilai IDR menggunakan kurs pertukaran langsung. Harga pasar Destined Rivals jauh di atas nilai matematika karena premium nostalgia Team Rocket.
Jawaban Singkat
Destined Rivals adalah expected value negatif di harga pasar untuk semua format. Box berharga Rp Rp 9.0jt di pasar versus break-even Rp Rp 3.5jt — hampir 2.7× di atas nilai matematika. Di harga retail Indonesia (~Rp Rp 90,146/pack), semua format adalah EV positif di 1.13×.
| Produk | Harga Retail (IDR) | Harga Pasar (IDR) | Nilai Kartu Ekspektasi | Return di Retail | Keputusan |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Booster Pack | Rp Rp 90,146 | Rp Rp 177,453 | Rp Rp 98,132 | 1.13× | +EV di retail. −EV di pasar. |
| Booster Bundle (6 pack) | Rp Rp 540,877 | Rp Rp 1.2jt | Rp Rp 588,434 | 1.13× | +EV di retail. −EV di pasar. |
| Booster Box (36 pack) | Rp Rp 3.2jt | Rp Rp 9.0jt | Rp Rp 3.5jt | 1.13× | +EV di retail. −EV di pasar. |
Harga Kartu Berdasarkan Rarity
Hyper Rare (HR) — #243–244
Dua kartu. Pull rate sekitar ~1 in 149 packs.
| # | Kartu | Harga (USD) | Harga (IDR) |
|---|---|---|---|
| 243 | Jamming Tower | $9.96 | Rp Rp 176,743 |
| 244 | Levincia | $9.09 | Rp Rp 161,305 |
Rata-rata pool: Rp Rp 169,113.
Special Illustration Rares (★★ SIR) — #228–242
15 kartu. Tier buruan utama. Pull rate sekitar ~1 in 94 packs. Rentang harga: Rp Rp 297,944 – Rp Rp 10.1jt.
| # | Kartu | Harga (USD) | Harga (IDR) |
|---|---|---|---|
| 231 | Team Rocket's Mewtwo ex | $500.00 | Rp Rp 8.9jt |
| 232 | Cynthia's Garchomp ex | $251.21 | Rp Rp 4.5jt |
| 230 | Ethan's Ho-Oh ex | $167.50 | Rp Rp 3.0jt |
| 233 | Team Rocket's Nidoking ex | $96.00 | Rp Rp 1.7jt |
| 229 | Team Rocket's Moltres ex | $85.88 | Rp Rp 1.5jt |
| 234 | Team Rocket's Crobat ex | $62.97 | Rp Rp 1.1jt |
| 240 | Team Rocket's Mewtwo ex | $59.80 | Rp Rp 1.1jt |
| 236 | Ethan's Adventure | $39.33 | Rp Rp 697,923 |
| 238 | Team Rocket's Giovanni | $30.00 | Rp Rp 532,359 |
| 235 | Arven's Mabosstiff ex | $29.55 | Rp Rp 524,374 |
| 241 | Cynthia's Garchomp ex | $26.90 | Rp Rp 477,349 |
| 239 | Ethan's Ho-Oh ex | $23.73 | Rp Rp 421,096 |
| 237 | Team Rocket's Ariana | $21.49 | Rp Rp 381,347 |
| 228 | Yanmega ex | $20.00 | Rp Rp 354,906 |
| 242 | Team Rocket's Crobat ex | $17.56 | Rp Rp 311,608 |
Rata-rata pool: Rp Rp 1.7jt. Median pool: Rp Rp 697,923. Mean sangat miring akibat Team Rocket's Mewtwo ex — pull SIR kemungkinan besar bernilai Rp Rp 301,670–Rp Rp 709,812, bukan rata-rata Rp Rp 1.8jt.
Illustration Rares (★ IR) — #183–219
37 kartu. Sekitar ~1 in 12 packs. Rentang harga: Rp Rp 35,136 – Rp Rp 1.2jt.
| # | Kartu | Harga (USD) | Harga (IDR) | Catatan |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 193 | Misty's Psyduck | $64.00 | Rp Rp 1.1jt | Top IR — fan favourite |
| 194 | Misty's Lapras | $37.98 | Rp Rp 673,967 | Strong pull |
| 190 | Ethan's Typhlosion | $27.00 | Rp Rp 479,123 | |
| 203 | Team Rocket's Meowth | $25.49 | Rp Rp 452,328 | |
| 213 | Team Rocket's Mewtwo ex | $19.99 | Rp Rp 354,729 | Ex Pokemon IR |
| 191 | Team Rocket's Houndoom | $15.71 | Rp Rp 278,779 | |
| 184 | Cynthia's Roserade | $13.00 | Rp Rp 230,689 | |
| 192 | Blaziken | $11.81 | Rp Rp 209,572 | |
| 204 | Kangaskhan | $10.88 | Rp Rp 193,069 | |
| 185 | Shaymin | $10.61 | Rp Rp 188,278 | |
| 200 | Team Rocket's Murkrow | $9.63 | Rp Rp 170,887 | |
| 189 | Rapidash | $9.00 | Rp Rp 159,708 | |
| 199 | Team Rocket's Weezing | $8.18 | Rp Rp 145,157 | |
| 202 | Team Rocket's Raticate | $6.74 | Rp Rp 119,603 | |
| 208 | Team Rocket's Moltres ex | $5.73 | Rp Rp 101,681 | Ex Pokemon IR |
| 187 | Team Rocket's Spidops | $5.56 | Rp Rp 98,664 | |
| 216 | Team Rocket's Nidoking ex | $5.43 | Rp Rp 96,357 | Ex Pokemon IR |
| 219 | Team Rocket's Persian ex | $5.20 | Rp Rp 92,276 | Ex Pokemon IR |
| 209 | Ethan's Ho-Oh ex | $5.13 | Rp Rp 91,033 | Ex Pokemon IR |
| 201 | Zamazenta | $4.99 | Rp Rp 88,549 | |
| 215 | Cynthia's Garchomp ex | $4.98 | Rp Rp 88,372 | Ex Pokemon IR |
| 195 | Clamperl | $4.66 | Rp Rp 82,693 | |
| 188 | Hydrapple | $4.56 | Rp Rp 80,919 | |
| 198 | Team Rocket's Orbeetle | $4.00 | Rp Rp 70,981 | |
| 205 | Arven's Greedent | $3.92 | Rp Rp 69,562 | |
| 197 | Rotom | $3.76 | Rp Rp 66,722 | |
| 183 | Yanma | $3.73 | Rp Rp 66,190 | |
| 217 | Team Rocket's Crobat ex | $3.68 | Rp Rp 65,303 | Ex Pokemon IR |
| 186 | Crustle | $3.63 | Rp Rp 64,415 | |
| 196 | Electrike | $3.49 | Rp Rp 61,931 | |
| 207 | Arboliva ex | $2.59 | Rp Rp 45,960 | Ex Pokemon IR |
| 211 | Dondozo ex | $2.50 | Rp Rp 44,363 | Ex Pokemon IR |
| 210 | Cetitan ex | $2.11 | Rp Rp 37,443 | Ex Pokemon IR |
| 218 | Arven's Mabosstiff ex | $2.08 | Rp Rp 36,910 | Ex Pokemon IR |
| 206 | Yanmega ex | $1.99 | Rp Rp 35,313 | Ex Pokemon IR |
| 214 | Regirock ex | $1.92 | Rp Rp 34,071 | Ex Pokemon IR |
| 212 | Electivire ex | $1.78 | Rp Rp 31,587 | Ex Pokemon IR |
Rata-rata pool: Rp Rp 171,420. Median: Rp Rp 91,033. Kebanyakan pull IR berada di rentang Rp Rp 53,236–Rp Rp 124,217.
Ultra Rares — #220–227
8 kartu trainer full-art. Pull rate sekitar ~1 in 16 packs. Rata-rata pool: Rp Rp 85,355.
| # | Kartu | Harga (USD) | Harga (IDR) |
|---|---|---|---|
| 226 | Team Rocket's Petrel | $9.10 | Rp Rp 161,482 |
| 225 | Team Rocket's Giovanni | $7.48 | Rp Rp 132,735 |
| 224 | Team Rocket's Ariana | $4.69 | Rp Rp 83,226 |
| 227 | Team Rocket's Proton | $4.27 | Rp Rp 75,772 |
| 221 | Ethan's Adventure | $3.87 | Rp Rp 68,674 |
| 223 | Team Rocket's Archer | $3.60 | Rp Rp 63,883 |
| 222 | Judge | $2.98 | Rp Rp 52,881 |
| 220 | Emcee's Hype | $2.49 | Rp Rp 44,186 |
Double Rares (★★ ex) — Set Utama
17 kartu ex. Pull rate sekitar ~1 in 5 packs. Rata-rata pool: Rp Rp 23,956.
| # | Kartu | Harga (USD) | Harga (IDR) |
|---|---|---|---|
| 81 | Team Rocket's Mewtwo ex | $2.05 | Rp Rp 36,378 |
| 150 | Team Rocket's Persian ex | $1.95 | Rp Rp 34,603 |
| 104 | Cynthia's Garchomp ex | $1.80 | Rp Rp 31,942 |
| 119 | Team Rocket's Nidoking ex | $1.50 | Rp Rp 26,618 |
| 145 | Steven's Metagross ex | $1.50 | Rp Rp 26,618 |
| 136 | Marnie's Grimmsnarl ex | $1.48 | Rp Rp 26,263 |
| 39 | Ethan's Ho-Oh ex | $1.46 | Rp Rp 25,908 |
| 31 | Team Rocket's Moltres ex | $1.39 | Rp Rp 24,666 |
| 25 | Rabsca ex | $1.34 | Rp Rp 23,779 |
| 23 | Arboliva ex | $1.27 | Rp Rp 22,537 |
| 101 | Regirock ex | $1.22 | Rp Rp 21,649 |
| 122 | Team Rocket's Crobat ex | $1.08 | Rp Rp 19,165 |
| 139 | Arven's Mabosstiff ex | $1.03 | Rp Rp 18,278 |
| 66 | Dondozo ex | $0.99 | Rp Rp 17,568 |
| 69 | Electivire ex | $0.99 | Rp Rp 17,568 |
| 3 | Yanmega ex | $0.99 | Rp Rp 17,568 |
| 65 | Cetitan ex | $0.95 | Rp Rp 16,858 |
Chase Cards: Top 10 Berdasarkan Nilai
Team Rocket's Mewtwo ex muncul di empat rarity berbeda: SIR #231 (Rp Rp 10.1jt), SIR #240 (Rp Rp 1.1jt), IR #213 (Rp Rp 468,476), dan DR #81 (Rp Rp 48,445).
Expected Value Per Pack
Menggunakan harga pasar PriceCharting saat ini yang dibobot berdasarkan pull rate komuniti (~8.000 pack):
| Komponen | Pull Rate | Rata-rata Pool (USD) | Kontribusi EV |
|---|---|---|---|
| Bulk (commons + uncommons) | 100% | $0.80 | $0.80 |
| Reverse Holo slot | 100% | $1.60 | $1.60 |
| Standard Rare (★) | 63.7% | $1.06 | $0.68 |
| Double Rare (★★ ex) | 20.0% | $1.35 | $0.27 |
| Illustration Rare (★ IR) | 8.33% | $9.66 | $0.80 |
| Ultra Rare (#220–227) | 6.25% | $4.81 | $0.30 |
| SIR (#228–242) | 1.06% | $95.46 | $1.01 |
| Hyper Rare (#243–244) | 0.67% | $9.53 | $0.06 |
Monte Carlo: Yang Sebenarnya Terjadi
Grafik di bawah menunjukkan hasil dari 100.000 simulasi pembukaan. Harga simulasi dalam USD; nilai lokal bergantung pada kurs pertukaran saat ini.
Each bar = $50 profit/loss range. ··· = empty gap in outcomes. The +$450–$700 cluster represents hitting Team Rocket's Mewtwo ex SIR ($500). 100,000 simulated openings. Prices from PriceCharting (USD), August 2026.
Ringkasan Menang / Kalah di semua format
| Skenario | Biaya (USD) | Menang % | Kalah % | Median P/L | P5 (nasib buruk) | P95 (nasib baik) | Return Rata-rata |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Pack — retail (~$5.08) | $5.08 | 13.8% | 86.2% | −$2 | −$2 | +$6 | 1.06× |
| Bundle — retail (~$30.48) | $30.48 | 24.1% | 75.9% | −$6 | −$10 | +$33 | 1.09× |
| Box — retail (~$182.88) | $182.88 | 36.6% | 63.4% | −$15 | −$46 | +$208 | 1.09× |
| Pack — market (~$10.00) | $10 | 5.4% | 94.6% | −$7 | −$7 | +$1 | 0.55× |
| Bundle — market (~$68.00) | $68 | 4.6% | 95.4% | −$44 | −$47 | −$6 | 0.49× |
| Box — market (~$506.25) | $506.25 | 2.7% | 97.3% | −$338 | −$370 | −$116 | 0.39× |
Harga Break-Even
Jika expected value per pack adalah $5.53 USD, harga break-even untuk setiap format produk adalah:
Yang Sebaiknya Kamu Lakukan
Jika kamu menginginkan kartu tertentu
Beli single. Gunakan perbandingan harga tcgTalk untuk menemukan harga terbaik. Untuk Team Rocket's Mewtwo ex SIR di Rp Rp 10.1jt, membuka pack untuk menemukannya tidak praktis — biaya ekspektasi sekitar 94 pack × 15 = ~1.410 pack.
Jika kamu ingin membuka pack
Box retail adalah satu-satunya format yang bisa dipertahankan: tingkat menang 41.4% dan return 1.13×. Cari harga mendekati harga retail Indonesia (~Rp Rp 90,146/pack). Jangan buka di harga pasar — box pasar di Rp Rp 9.0jt memiliki tingkat kalah 97.3% dan P95 negatif.
Jika kamu sudah memegang produk sealed
Produk sealed Destined Rivals di harga pasar (Rp Rp 9.0jt/box) adalah ~2.7× di atas break-even matematika (Rp Rp 3.5jt). Premium sealed biasanya berkompres seiring waktu ketika supply meningkat. Harga retail adalah satu-satunya titik masuk yang bisa dibenarkan.
Beli Destined Rivals di TCGPlayer
Pertanyaan Umum
Apakah worth it membuka pack Destined Rivals di Indonesia?
Di harga retail (~Rp Rp 90,146/pack), ya secara matematis — EV sekitar Rp Rp 98,132 per pack (1.13×). Tapi median hasil adalah kerugian kecil di semua format. Di harga pasar (Rp Rp 177,453/pack), buka pack adalah 0.46× EV — sangat negatif. Untuk kebanyakan orang, beli single jauh lebih efisien.
Kartu Destined Rivals apa yang paling mahal sekarang?
Team Rocket's Mewtwo ex SIR (#231) sekitar USD $568.58 (Rp Rp 10.1jt). Cynthia's Garchomp ex SIR (#232) adalah kedua di Rp Rp 4.4jt. Ethan's Ho-Oh ex SIR (#230) adalah ketiga di Rp Rp 3.0jt.
Berapa banyak SIR di Destined Rivals?
15 Special Illustration Rares (#228–242) dan 2 Hyper Rares (#243–244), total 17 kartu rarity premium di atas tier IR. Pool SIR yang besar berarti kebanyakan pull SIR akan bernilai Rp Rp 301,670–Rp Rp 709,812, bukan rata-rata Rp Rp 1.8jt.
Kenapa box pasar Destined Rivals mahal sekali?
Set ini menampilkan Team Rocket, Cynthia, Misty, dan Ethan dari seri game utama bersama mekanik rival SV baru. Faktor nostalgia ini mendorong permintaan sealed jauh di atas nilai kartu. Box pasar di ~Rp Rp 9.0jt dihargai 2.7× di atas break-even matematika ~Rp Rp 3.5jt.
Disclaimer: Semua harga kartu dari data pasar PriceCharting (USD) per Agustus 2026. Nilai IDR menggunakan kurs pertukaran langsung. Pull rates adalah perkiraan komunitas dari ~8.000 pack yang dilacak. Monte Carlo menggunakan 100.000 simulasi, seed 42. Ini bukan saran keuangan.