Card prices are sourced from PriceCharting market data (USD). SGD equivalents use an approximate 1.28 exchange rate. Prices reflect current secondary market rates and will change as the set ages.
The Short Answer
Destined Rivals is a heavily hyped set — market prices for sealed product are significantly above the mathematical break-even based on current card values. The booster box at market price (~USD $503.86) is roughly 2.4× above break-even (~USD $208.72). At Singapore retail, all three formats are positive expected value, but median outcomes are still losses in every format because the upside is concentrated in a few high-value SIR pulls.
| Product | Retail Price (USD) | Market Price (USD) | Expected Card Value | Return at Retail | Verdict |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Booster Pack | ~$5.08 | ~$16.17 | $5.8 | 1.14× | +EV at retail. −EV at market. |
| Booster Bundle (6 packs) | ~$30.48 | ~$73.99 | $34.79 | 1.15× | +EV at retail. −EV at market. |
| ~Break-even bundle | ~$34.79 USD (SGD ~$44.53) | $34.79 | 1.0× | Expected value equals cost. | |
| Booster Box (36 packs) | ~$182.88 | ~$503.86 | $208.72 | 1.14× | +EV at retail. −EV at market. |
| ~Break-even box | ~$208.72 USD (SGD ~$267) | $208.72 | 1.0× | Expected value equals cost. | |
The premium explained: Destined Rivals features Team Rocket and popular characters like Cynthia, Misty, Ethan, and Marnie alongside modern Scarlet & Violet mechanics. This nostalgia premium has driven sealed product prices far above card value fundamentals. The market box at ~$503.86 would need the card market to be ~2.4× more valuable than it currently is to justify opening at that price. The retail box at $182.88 USD remains the only format where opening makes mathematical sense.
Card Prices by Rarity
Destined Rivals (SV10) has 244 cards across six rarity tiers above common. The set has a large SIR pool (15 cards) and a large IR pool (37 cards across #183–219), giving plenty of hit-slot variety — but also spreading the chase value across more cards.
Hyper Rare (HR) — #243–244
Two cards. The gold full-art treatment applied to iconic trainer stadiums. Estimated pull rate approximately 1 in 149 packs.
| # | Card | Price (USD) | Price (SGD est.) |
|---|---|---|---|
| 243 | Jamming Tower | $11.00 | ~$14.08 |
| 244 | Levincia | $9.86 | ~$12.62 |
Pool average: $10.43 USD. Both cards are at relatively modest values compared to prior Hyper Rares — the HR slot in Destined Rivals is a safe pull rather than a jackpot.
Special Illustration Rares (★★ SIR) — #228–242
15 cards. The main chase tier, dominated by Team Rocket's Mewtwo ex and Cynthia's Garchomp ex. Estimated pull rate approximately 1 in 94 packs. Price range: $17–$560.
| # | Card | Price (USD) | Price (SGD est.) |
|---|---|---|---|
| 231 | Team Rocket's Mewtwo ex | $560.00 | ~$717 |
| 232 | Cynthia's Garchomp ex | $269.97 | ~$346 |
| 230 | Ethan's Ho-Oh ex | $182.93 | ~$234 |
| 233 | Team Rocket's Nidoking ex | $108.50 | ~$139 |
| 229 | Team Rocket's Moltres ex | $100.00 | ~$128 |
| 234 | Team Rocket's Crobat ex | $69.99 | ~$89.59 |
| 240 | Team Rocket's Mewtwo ex | $66.50 | ~$85.12 |
| 236 | Ethan's Adventure | $41.00 | ~$52.48 |
| 241 | Cynthia's Garchomp ex | $30.25 | ~$38.72 |
| 235 | Arven's Mabosstiff ex | $30.00 | ~$38.40 |
| 238 | Team Rocket's Giovanni | $29.92 | ~$38.30 |
| 237 | Team Rocket's Ariana | $26.64 | ~$34.10 |
| 239 | Ethan's Ho-Oh ex | $26.00 | ~$33.28 |
| 228 | Yanmega ex | $21.00 | ~$26.88 |
| 242 | Team Rocket's Crobat ex | $17.16 | ~$21.96 |
Pool average: $105.32 USD. Pool median: $41 USD. The mean is skewed heavily by Team Rocket's Mewtwo ex (#231 at $560). If you pull an SIR, you are more likely to get one worth $17–$41 than the $105.32 average. The top 3 cards (Mewtwo, Garchomp, Ho-Oh) account for the bulk of the pool's total value.
Illustration Rares (★ IR) — #183–219
37 cards across two sub-groups: foil versions of common/uncommon Pokemon and trainers (#183–205), and ex Pokemon illustration art (#206–219). Expected roughly once every 12 packs. Price range: $1.59–$71.50.
| # | Card | Price (USD) | Notes |
|---|---|---|---|
| 193 | Misty's Psyduck | $71.50 | Top IR — fan favourite |
| 194 | Misty's Lapras | $38.95 | Strong pull |
| 190 | Ethan's Typhlosion | $30.00 | |
| 203 | Team Rocket's Meowth | $28.00 | |
| 213 | Team Rocket's Mewtwo ex | $23.50 | Ex Pokemon IR |
| 191 | Team Rocket's Houndoom | $16.00 | |
| 184 | Cynthia's Roserade | $15.62 | |
| 204 | Kangaskhan | $12.73 | |
| 192 | Blaziken | $12.24 | |
| 185 | Shaymin | $11.50 | |
| 189 | Rapidash | $9.51 | |
| 200 | Team Rocket's Murkrow | $9.47 | |
| 199 | Team Rocket's Weezing | $8.99 | |
| 208 | Team Rocket's Moltres ex | $7.27 | Ex Pokemon IR |
| 202 | Team Rocket's Raticate | $7.00 | |
| 187 | Team Rocket's Spidops | $6.38 | |
| 215 | Cynthia's Garchomp ex | $5.50 | Ex Pokemon IR |
| 216 | Team Rocket's Nidoking ex | $5.47 | Ex Pokemon IR |
| 219 | Team Rocket's Persian ex | $5.15 | Ex Pokemon IR |
| 209 | Ethan's Ho-Oh ex | $5.00 | Ex Pokemon IR |
| 183 | Yanma | $4.75 | |
| 197 | Rotom | $4.64 | |
| 201 | Zamazenta | $4.58 | |
| 188 | Hydrapple | $4.47 | |
| 205 | Arven's Greedent | $4.34 | |
| 195 | Clamperl | $4.34 | |
| 217 | Team Rocket's Crobat ex | $4.23 | Ex Pokemon IR |
| 198 | Team Rocket's Orbeetle | $4.00 | |
| 196 | Electrike | $3.75 | |
| 186 | Crustle | $3.62 | |
| 207 | Arboliva ex | $3.37 | Ex Pokemon IR |
| 212 | Electivire ex | $2.28 | Ex Pokemon IR |
| 218 | Arven's Mabosstiff ex | $2.25 | Ex Pokemon IR |
| 214 | Regirock ex | $2.02 | Ex Pokemon IR |
| 211 | Dondozo ex | $2.00 | Ex Pokemon IR |
| 210 | Cetitan ex | $1.68 | Ex Pokemon IR |
| 206 | Yanmega ex | $1.59 | Ex Pokemon IR |
Pool average: $10.48 USD. Pool median: $5.15 USD. The large IR pool is split between high-value nostalgia cards (Misty's Psyduck $72, Misty's Lapras $39) and low-value ex Pokemon illustration rares ($2–$7). Most IR pulls will land in the $3–$7 range.
Ultra Rares — #220–227
8 cards. Full-art trainer cards from Team Rocket and other rivals. Expected roughly once every 16 packs (6.25%). Price range: $3.42–$11.80.
| # | Card | Price (USD) | Price (SGD est.) |
|---|---|---|---|
| 226 | Team Rocket's Petrel | $11.80 | ~$15.10 |
| 225 | Team Rocket's Giovanni | $8.34 | ~$10.68 |
| 227 | Team Rocket's Proton | $5.67 | ~$7.26 |
| 224 | Team Rocket's Ariana | $5.42 | ~$6.94 |
| 223 | Team Rocket's Archer | $5.21 | ~$6.67 |
| 221 | Ethan's Adventure | $4.00 | ~$5.12 |
| 220 | Emcee's Hype | $3.56 | ~$4.56 |
| 222 | Judge | $3.42 | ~$4.38 |
Pool average: $5.93 USD. A modest but consistent hit — most URs land around $4–$10.
Double Rares (★★ ex) — Main Set
17 ex cards in the base set (#001–182). Expected roughly once every 5 packs (20%). Most are worth $0.97–$1.95, with Team Rocket's Mewtwo ex (#81) as the notable outlier at $2.33.
| # | Card | Price (USD) |
|---|---|---|
| 81 | Team Rocket's Mewtwo ex | $2.33 |
| 119 | Team Rocket's Nidoking ex | $1.95 |
| 39 | Ethan's Ho-Oh ex | $1.82 |
| 104 | Cynthia's Garchomp ex | $1.70 |
| 150 | Team Rocket's Persian ex | $1.59 |
| 31 | Team Rocket's Moltres ex | $1.58 |
| 145 | Steven's Metagross ex | $1.57 |
| 66 | Dondozo ex | $1.53 |
| 69 | Electivire ex | $1.49 |
| 136 | Marnie's Grimmsnarl ex | $1.44 |
| 3 | Yanmega ex | $1.33 |
| 23 | Arboliva ex | $1.25 |
| 25 | Rabsca ex | $1.20 |
| 101 | Regirock ex | $1.11 |
| 65 | Cetitan ex | $1.06 |
| 139 | Arven's Mabosstiff ex | $0.99 |
| 122 | Team Rocket's Crobat ex | $0.97 |
Pool average: $1.47 USD. Pool median: $1.49 USD. A tight, consistent pool — most DRs land very close to the average.
Chase Cards: Top 10 by Value
Team Rocket's Mewtwo ex appears four times across different rarities: SIR #231 ($560), SIR #240 ($67), IR #213 ($24), and DR #81 ($2.33). Cynthia's Garchomp ex appears three times: SIR #232 ($270), SIR #241 ($30), and IR #215 ($5.50). The nostalgia premium for these cards — especially the SIR versions — is a significant driver of the set's EV.
Expected Value Per Pack
Using current PriceCharting market prices weighted by pull rates from Destined Rivals community opening data (~8,000 packs), here is where the expected value of each pack comes from:
| Component | Pull Rate | Pool Avg (USD) | EV Contribution |
|---|---|---|---|
| Bulk (commons + uncommons) | 100% | $0.80 | $0.80 |
| Reverse Holo slot | 100% | $1.60 | $1.60 |
| Standard Rare (★) | 63.7% | $1.06 | $0.68 |
| Double Rare (★★ ex) | 20.0% | $1.47 | $0.29 |
| Illustration Rare (★ IR) | 8.33% | $10.48 | $0.87 |
| Ultra Rare (#220–227) | 6.25% | $5.93 | $0.37 |
| SIR (#228–242) | 1.06% | $105.32 | $1.12 |
| Hyper Rare (#243–244) | 0.67% | $10.43 | $0.07 |
Key observations:
- SIR contributes the most of any single hit slot ($1.12) — but notice the high standard deviation. The pool has one $560 card and many $17–$41 cards. Most SIR pulls are worth $17–$41; the $105.32 average is inflated by Team Rocket's Mewtwo ex.
- The Hyper Rare contributes only $0.07 of EV — the two HR cards ($10–$11) are modest relative to prior sets' Hyper Rares. Hitting one is a minor bonus, not a jackpot.
- IRs and Rares together contribute $1.55 — the large IR pool (37 cards) spreads value, but most are worth $2–$5. The IR slot is dependable but not a significant EV driver.
- The market box premium is the key issue: At $503.86 per box, you'd need the expected cards per pack to be worth $14.00 (2.4×) to break even — far above the current $5.8 reality.
Monte Carlo: Win vs Loss Odds
The EV table above gives averages. What actually happens to individual openers is driven by variance. The charts below show results from 100,000 simulated openings at Singapore retail prices, drawing from the actual card pool prices and pull rates.
Each bar = $50 profit/loss range. ··· = empty gap in outcomes. The +$500–$700 cluster represents hitting Team Rocket's Mewtwo ex SIR ($560). 100,000 simulated openings. Prices from PriceCharting (USD), June 2026.
Win / Loss summary across all formats
| Scenario | Cost | Win % | Loss % | Median P/L | P5 (bad luck) | P95 (good luck) | Avg Return |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Pack — retail (~$5.08) | $5.08 | 15.1% | 84.9% | −$2 | −$2 | +$7 | 1.14× |
| Bundle — retail (~$30.48) | $30.48 | 29% | 71% | −$5 | −$10 | +$36 | 1.15× |
| Box — retail (~$182.88) | $182.88 | 42.2% | 57.8% | −$8 | −$44 | +$230 | 1.14× |
| Pack — market (~$16.17) | $16.17 | 2.5% | 97.5% | −$13 | −$13 | −$4 | 0.36× |
| Bundle — market (~$73.99) | $73.99 | 4.6% | 95.4% | −$49 | −$53 | −$7 | 0.47× |
| Box — market (~$503.86) | $503.86 | 2.9% | 97.1% | −$329 | −$365 | −$88 | 0.41× |
P5 = the outcome in the worst 5% of openings. P95 = the outcome in the best 5%. Win = profit > $0. Simulation: 100,000 runs, seed 42.
What these numbers mean in practice:
- The market box P95 is negative (−$88) — meaning even in the top 5% of box openings at market price, you still lose $88. This is an unusually bad outcome that reflects how overpriced boxes are relative to card values at market.
- At retail, the box P95 is +$230 — a nice result, but driven by hitting at least one top-tier SIR (Mewtwo ex $560 or Garchomp $270).
- Market individual packs at 0.36× and bundles at 0.47× return are among the worst EV profiles across any major SV set we've analyzed. You lose more than half your money on expectation.
- The retail box at 42.2% win rate is below 50% — the card prices don't fully justify even retail opening when accounting for variance. You still lose money the majority of the time.
The Break-Even Price
If the expected value per pack is $5.8 USD, the break-even prices for each product format are:
Singapore context: Retail packs in Singapore cost approximately SGD $6.50 each (USD ~$5.08), below the break-even pack price of $5.8. Retail boxes (~SGD $234 / USD ~$182.88) are below break-even ($208.72). At Singapore retail, all three formats are positive expected value at ~1.14×. However, a 1.14× return does not mean you will profit — the median outcome is still a small loss in every format because most of the upside requires hitting SIRs.
Sensitivity to SIR price changes
| SIR Price Scenario | EV per Pack | Break-even Bundle (USD) | Break-even Box (USD) |
|---|---|---|---|
| Current prices (June 2026) | $5.8 | ~$34.79 | ~$208.72 |
| SIRs −25% | ~$5.52 | ~$33.11 | ~$198.67 |
| SIRs −50% | ~$5.24 | ~$31.43 | ~$188.61 |
| SIRs −75% | ~$4.96 | ~$29.74 | ~$178.46 |
SIR prices contribute ~19% of total pack EV. A 50% drop in SIR prices drops EV to ~$5.24, which would still leave retail boxes ($182.88) just above break-even. A 25% SIR correction would push the retail box close to break-even at ~$198.67. Given that Team Rocket's Mewtwo ex SIR (#231) alone drives substantial variance in the pool, any significant price drop on that one card has an outsized impact on the SIR pool average.
What You Should Actually Do
If you want a specific card
Buy the single. Use the tcgTalk price comparison to find the best current Singapore price. For Team Rocket's Mewtwo ex SIR at $560, opening packs to find it is not remotely practical — the expected cost is roughly 94 packs × 15 (one specific SIR out of 15) = ~1,410 packs, which is around $22,800 at market pack price (~$16.17 each). Even at retail that's ~$7,200. Buy the single.
If you want to open packs
The retail box is the only format with a defensible case: 42.2% win rate and 1.14× expected return. Even so, the median outcome is −$8, meaning more than half of all retail box openings result in a loss. The retail bundle (29% win) and pack (15.1% win) are positive EV in expectation but negative outcomes most of the time.
Do not open at market prices. The market box at ~$503.86 has a 97.1% loss rate and a P95 of −$88 — even with exceptional luck you are very likely to lose money. Compare prices on Carousell or SNKRDUNK to ensure you're paying retail or close to it.
If you are buying sealed for investment
Destined Rivals sealed at market prices ($503.86/box) is already far above the mathematical value floor ($208.72). Sealed appreciation would require the card market to grow — but card prices typically decline after release as supply increases. Buying sealed at current market rates carries significant downside risk. If investing in sealed, retail price is the only justifiable entry point.
If you already have cards to sell
Team Rocket's Mewtwo ex SIR (#231) at $560 is the crown jewel. SIR prices in newly released sets often soften 20–40% within 3 months as opening data accumulates and supply increases. Misty's Psyduck IR (#193) at $72 and Misty's Lapras IR (#194) at $39 are driven by nostalgia demand — these tend to be stickier in price than SIRs. If you have pulled top SIRs and are considering selling, moving sooner typically captures better prices.
Buy Destined Rivals on TCGPlayer
Frequently Asked Questions
Is it worth opening Destined Rivals packs?
At Singapore retail (~SGD $6.50/pack), technically yes at 1.14× expected return — but the median outcome is a loss in every format. At secondary market prices, opening is deeply negative EV (0.41×–0.47×). The market box at $503.86 has a 97.1% loss rate. Only open at retail prices if you want to open for fun.
What is the most expensive Destined Rivals card?
Team Rocket's Mewtwo ex SIR (#231) at approximately USD $560.00 (~SGD $717). Cynthia's Garchomp ex SIR (#232) at USD $269.97 (~SGD $346) is second. Ethan's Ho-Oh ex SIR (#230) at USD $182.93 (~SGD $234) is third.
How many SIRs are in Destined Rivals?
15 Special Illustration Rares (#228–242) and 2 Hyper Rares (#243–244), for 17 premium rarity cards above the standard IR tier. This is a larger SIR pool than Chaos Rising (6 SIRs) but spread across more cards — most SIR pulls will be in the $17–$41 range rather than the $105.32 average.
Why is the Destined Rivals market box so expensive?
The set features iconic characters including Team Rocket, Cynthia, Misty, and Ethan from the main game series alongside the new SV rival mechanics. This nostalgia factor has driven sealed demand above card value fundamentals. The market box at ~$503.86 is priced at 2.4× its mathematical break-even of ~$208.72.
How does Destined Rivals compare to Chaos Rising for pack opening?
Destined Rivals has lower EV per pack than Chaos Rising, higher market prices, and significantly worse market-price opening odds (2.9% box win rate at market). Chaos Rising had an unusual situation where the market box sat near break-even. Destined Rivals has no such opportunity — market prices are far above break-even. At retail, both sets offer similar positive returns.
Is Misty's Psyduck IR a good pull?
Misty's Psyduck IR (#193) at $72 is the highest-value Illustration Rare in the set and one of the most valuable cards overall — a very strong pull if you're opening at retail. At market pack prices ($16.17), pulling it covers about 4.4 packs, still a loss on a 12-pack bundle. At retail prices ($5.08/pack), pulling it in a 12-pack bundle is a significant win.
Disclaimer: All card prices are from PriceCharting market data (USD) as of June 2026 and are indicative of current secondary market rates — they will change. SGD equivalents use an approximate 1.28 exchange rate (June 2026). Pull rates are community estimates from ~8,000 documented pack openings for Destined Rivals; The Pokemon Company does not publish official pull rates. Monte Carlo results use 100,000 simulated openings, seed 42. This is not financial advice. Verify current prices on tcgTalk or Carousell before making any buying or selling decisions.