100-Pack Opening: The Real Data
A documented 100-pack opening of Phantasmal Flames produced the results below. This opening came after a prior booster box session (where the Mega Charizard EX gold card was pulled), so all data together spans more than 100 packs — but the core 100-pack session is the basis for the hit rate analysis here.
What was opened
- 100 booster packs of Phantasmal Flames
- Main set: all 94 cards completed within these 100 packs
- Separate prior booster box: yielded the Mega Charizard EX gold card
Hits pulled (100-pack session)
- Multiple EX cards pulled frequently across the opening
- 1 SIR: Mega Sharpedo EX SIR (pulled in the illustration rare slot)
- Full Art — Blowtorch Special Energy (full art energy)
- Full Art — Grimsley’s Move (Trainer Full Art / SIR)
- Full Art — Mega Lopunny EX (full art)
- Full Art — Miss Maggie (Trainer full art)
- Full Art — Mega Lani EX (full art)
- Illustration Rare — Meowth IR
- Illustration Rare — Toxtricity IR
- Illustration Rare — Flygon IR
- Illustration Rare — Yamper IR (pulled near the end of the session)
- Not pulled: Whooper IR, Mega Charizard EX SIR, Dawn SIR, regular Mega Charizard full art, regular full art Charizard
Hit rate breakdown
- Any SIR: 1% (1 in 100 packs — exactly the average)
- Full Art Pokemon / Trainer: multiple across 100 packs (~1 in 15–20 packs estimated)
- Illustration Rare: 4 pulled (~1 in 25 packs)
- EX / Mega EX: frequent (~1 in 5–7 packs)
- Mega Charizard EX SIR: 0 in 100 packs
Key takeaway: The main set was fully completed — all 94 non-secret-rare cards were pulled within 100 packs. Secret rares, especially the Mega Charizard EX SIR and gold card, are an entirely different pursuit. Hitting exactly 1 SIR in 100 packs is precisely on the average estimate, but that SIR was not the most desirable one.
Phantasmal Flames Pull Rates: What the Numbers Say
The Pokemon Company does not publish official pull rates for Phantasmal Flames or any set. The estimates below are derived from community opening data, including the 100-pack session documented above and aggregate reports across Singapore and global collector communities.
| Card Type | Est. Per Pack | Per Booster Box (36 packs) | Notes |
|---|---|---|---|
| Mega Charizard EX SIR | Rarer than 1 in 1,250 | Far less than 1 per box | Rarer than the gold card — extreme rarity |
| Mega Charizard EX Gold | ~1 in 1,250 (~0.08%) | ~1 per 35 boxes | Second-rarest card in the set |
| Any SIR (excl. gold) | ~1 in 100 | ~0.36 per box | ~1 per 3 boxes on average |
| Full Art Pokemon | ~1 in 15–25 | ~1–2 per box | Moderate — achievable per box |
| Full Art Trainer | ~1 in 20–30 | ~1–2 per box | Multiple in set — Dawn FA, Miss Maggie, etc. |
| Illustration Rare (IR) | ~1 in 9–15 | ~2–4 per box | Fairly consistent; not all IRs equally easy |
| EX / Mega EX | ~1 in 5–7 | ~5–7 per box | Common hit; expected in every session |
Why the SIR distribution matters
Not all SIRs are equally rare. In Phantasmal Flames, the rarity hierarchy creates a notable split:
- The Mega Charizard EX SIR sits above the gold card in rarity — this is unusually inverted from most sets
- Other SIRs (Mega Sharpedo EX, Mega Lopunny, Dawn, Lop Honey) pull at closer to the standard ~1 in 100 rate
- Hitting any SIR does not meaningfully increase your odds of hitting the Mega Charizard EX SIR specifically
- Small-sample openings (1–3 boxes) tell you almost nothing about your SIR hit rate
Mega Charizard EX SIR: The Ultimate Chase
The Mega Charizard EX SIR is the single most desirable card in Phantasmal Flames — and one of the rarest SIRs in recent Pokemon set history. The community has compared it to Moonbreon (Umbreon VMAX Alt Art from Evolving Skies), describing it as “the Moon Bon of the Mega Generation.”
Why it is the hardest pull in the set
- Pull rate is stated to be rarer than the gold card — meaning below 0.08%, or harder than 1 in 1,250 packs
- This inverts the usual rarity structure where gold cards are the hardest pull in a set
- A full 100-pack opening produced 0 copies — consistent with its extreme rarity
- Mega Charizard as an IP carries enormous demand on top of the low supply
- The Mega Evolution mechanic returning to the TCG adds a nostalgia premium
How it compares to Obsidian Flames
Obsidian Flames (2023) featured the Charizard ex SIR as its headline card — one of the most hyped SIRs of the Scarlet & Violet era. Phantasmal Flames raises the stakes: the Mega Charizard EX SIR is pulling harder than that benchmark, with a rarity structure that places it above even the gold card. Community consensus is that the Mega Charizard EX SIR is the more difficult pull, with comparable or higher desirability.
The regular Mega Charizard full art
Phantasmal Flames also contains a regular full art Mega Charizard EX — separate from the SIR. This card is not a Secret Illustration Rare but is still a desirable full art pull. For master set completionists, both the regular full art and the SIR are required. The regular full art is achievable within a few boxes; the SIR is a long-term chase.
Mega Charizard EX Gold: The Second Chase
The Mega Charizard EX gold card carries a documented pull rate of approximately 0.08% — roughly 1 in 1,250 packs. This was pulled during a prior booster box session before the main 100-pack opening documented above, confirming the card does exist and can be pulled from standard product.
Understanding the 0.08% rate
| Packs Opened | Probability of Pulling Gold Card |
|---|---|
| 36 packs (1 booster box) | ~2.8% |
| 100 packs (approx. 1 case) | ~7.7% |
| 360 packs (10 booster boxes) | ~25% |
| 1,250 packs (~35 booster boxes) | ~63% (average) |
At 1 in 1,250 packs, most collectors will never pull this card from a pack — the expected volume needed is simply beyond what any individual would reasonably open. The gold card is a trophy pull; treat it as such rather than as a realistic opening target.
Other gold cards in the set
Phantasmal Flames may contain additional gold cards beyond the Mega Charizard EX gold — community reports suggest Mega Deino/Hydreigon and potentially others exist. Pull rates for these cards are not yet well-documented, but are expected to be similarly rare.
Dawn SIR & Other Trainer Chases
Beyond the Charizard cards, Phantasmal Flames has a strong lineup of trainer SIRs worth noting. Dawn SIR was the top trainer chase at launch, with the community placing it among the most valuable trainer SIRs in the set.
Trainer SIRs in Phantasmal Flames
- Dawn SIR — top trainer SIR chase; launched as a significant value card
- Grimsley’s Move SIR — pulled in the 100-pack opening; Trainer Full Art rarity
- Lop Honey SIR — noted as part of the SIR lineup
- Dawn also has a regular full art version (separate from the SIR)
Full art trainers (non-SIR)
- Miss Maggie — full art trainer pulled in the 100-pack opening
- Fire Breather — full art trainer in the set
- Dawn (regular full art) — available at lower rarity than her SIR version
Special energy full arts
Phantasmal Flames features full art special energy cards — Blowtorch Special Energy was pulled in the 100-pack opening. Full art energy cards are a relatively new addition to the Pokemon TCG and are worth noting for master set builders.
Completing the Regular Set vs Chasing Secret Rares
The 100-pack opening data makes one thing very clear: completing the main Phantasmal Flames set and chasing secret rares are completely different goals, requiring different strategies and expectations.
Main set completion (94 cards)
- All 94 non-secret-rare cards were completed within 100 packs in the documented opening
- Realistically achievable within 2–3 booster boxes for most cards
- Final commons and uncommons may require trading to avoid duplicates
- Regular Charizard and regular Mega Charizard EX (both base set cards) are needed and obtainable in normal pack ratios
- Master set builders need both the regular full art Mega Charizard and the SIR — the latter is a completely different difficulty tier
Missing IRs — the Whooper problem
In the documented 100-pack opening, the Whooper IR was the only illustration rare not pulled — despite completing the main 94-card set. At IR pull rates of roughly 1 in 9–15 packs, with 5+ IRs in the set, it is normal to miss one or two specific IRs across 100 packs. The Yamper IR was also pulled very late in the session. For collectors targeting specific IRs, singles are a much more efficient path than continued pack opening.
Secret rare completion
Collecting all secret rares — including both Charizard SIR and gold, Dawn SIR, all other SIRs, and all gold cards — is an extreme commitment:
- Any SIR: ~1 in 100 packs per slot
- Mega Charizard EX SIR: rarer than 1 in 1,250 packs
- Gold card(s): ~1 in 1,250+ packs each
- Multiple SIRs in set × low per-SIR rate = extremely high expected pack count to complete all secrets
- Master set completion via pack opening is not financially realistic — buy singles for the top chases
What This Means For Singapore Collectors
If you want the Mega Charizard EX SIR
Buy the single. The expected pack count to target one specific SIR that is rarer than 1 in 1,250 packs makes opening packs for it irrational from a cost perspective. Use the tcgTalk price comparison to find Singapore sellers listing Phantasmal Flames singles and compare current market rates.
If you want to open packs
Set a clear budget before you start — and assume you will not hit the Mega Charizard EX SIR or gold card. Within that budget, Phantasmal Flames is a rewarding opening experience: EX and Mega EX cards come frequently, the illustration rare lineup is strong (Meowth, Toxtricity, Flygon, Yamper all have distinctive art), and the Mega Evolution theme adds nostalgic satisfaction. The Toxtricity IR in particular references the Battle Area setting from Pokemon ZA — a collector favourite for art quality.
If you are completing the main set
Two to three booster boxes will get you close to the full 94-card main set. For any remaining cards — including the IRs you miss — buy singles. The Whooper IR being missed in a full 100-pack opening is a reminder that any individual IR can be stubborn regardless of total pack count.
If you are considering sealed investment
A set with a Mega Charizard EX SIR rarer than its own gold card has strong demand fundamentals — but sealed appreciation depends on print run, availability in Singapore, and how long the set remains in active release. Buy at or near retail, store sealed, and assess on a multi-year horizon. Do not pay significant above-retail premiums expecting short-term returns.
Frequently Asked Questions
What are the pull rates in Phantasmal Flames?
Based on real 100-pack opening data: any SIR pulls at approximately 1 in 100 packs, the Mega Charizard EX gold card at roughly 0.08% (1 in 1,250 packs), and the Mega Charizard EX SIR is even rarer than the gold card. Illustration rares appear roughly every 9–15 packs, and EX/Mega EX cards come around every 5–7 packs. The Pokemon Company does not publish official pull rates.
How rare is the Mega Charizard EX SIR in Phantasmal Flames?
It is the rarest card in the set — reported to be harder to pull than the gold card, which itself sits at approximately 0.08% (1 in 1,250 packs). A full 100-pack opening produced zero copies. The community has compared its desirability and rarity to Moonbreon, calling it “the Moon Bon of the Mega Generation.”
How rare is the Mega Charizard EX gold card in Phantasmal Flames?
Approximately 0.08% — or about 1 in 1,250 packs. This was verified by a pull during a booster box session documented alongside the 100-pack opening. At this rate, even opening 10 booster boxes only gives you roughly a 25% chance of seeing one. Most collectors chasing this card will need to buy the single directly.
Is Phantasmal Flames the Obsidian Flames of Mega Evolution?
The comparison holds up, but Phantasmal Flames may be the harder version. Obsidian Flames had a sought-after Charizard SIR — Phantasmal Flames has a Mega Charizard EX SIR that pulls rarer than its own gold card. That inverted rarity structure, combined with the nostalgia of the Mega Evolution era returning to the TCG, makes the case that Phantasmal Flames is a more extreme version of the Obsidian Flames phenomenon.
Can I complete the regular Phantasmal Flames set in one booster box?
Unlikely in a single box, but achievable in 2–3 boxes. The full 94-card main set was completed within 100 packs in the documented opening. A single booster box of 36 packs will get you a large portion of the set but you will likely need to trade or buy singles to finish the remaining cards — particularly the illustration rares, which can be stubbornly missing even across 100 packs (as the Whooper IR demonstrated).
What illustration rares are worth chasing in Phantasmal Flames?
The standout IRs in Phantasmal Flames include: Meowth IR (art featuring Meowth on a tree from Route 5, a game location reference), Toxtricity IR (set in the Battle Area with Pokemon ZA game references — notable for collectors who follow the games), Flygon IR, and Yamper IR. Whooper IR is also in the set but was not pulled in the documented 100-pack opening — a reminder that individual IRs can be elusive even at their stated rates.
Skip the opening gamble — browse Mega Charizard EX SIR, Dawn SIR, and all Phantasmal Flames singles listed by Singapore collectors at tcgTalk Price Comparison.
Disclaimer: Pull rates are community estimates derived from aggregate opening data. The Pokemon Company does not publish official pull rates for Phantasmal Flames or any set. All rarity estimates are based on documented openings and community reports — actual results will vary. This is not financial advice.