TCG Market Analysis: Weekly Price Movement Tracker 2026

How We Measure the Market

Raw price lists are noisy. A $500 card with 2 transactions a month shouldn't move the needle the same way a $10 card with 500 transactions does. To cut through that noise, every average in this guide is weighted by sales volume — the number of recent transactions PriceCharting records for each card.

The process, run each Monday:

1. Load today's PriceCharting CSV and the file from 7 days prior
2. Merge on card ID — only cards present on both dates are included
3. For each condition, compute Σ(price × volume) / Σ(volume)
4. Compare today vs baseline, flag the direction and magnitude

Data source: PriceCharting daily snapshots across four TCGs — Pokemon (~85K cards), Magic (~127K), Yu-Gi-Oh! (~76K), One Piece (~11K). SGD conversion: 1.36 USD/SGD (May 2026).

This Week at a Glance — Sep 26 – Oct 3, 2026

Raw Price Trend — Indexed, Since May 2026

Each series is an index: 100 = May 3, 2026, the first date all four games have data. Every point is the one before it moved by that week's measured change, shown in brackets.

This replaced dollar levels on 3 October 2026. The old column showed a weighted average recomputed over a different card universe each week, so its week-to-week movement did not match the percentage changes reported above it — in the 26 September edition the table rose while the copy reported a fall. An index built from the measured changes cannot disagree with them. A dash means no comparable pair of snapshots existed that week; it is left blank rather than carried forward, which would assert a flat week that was never measured.

✦ Current week. † One Piece May 10 row uses May 9 data. ‡ From Sep 26 the series excludes PriceCharting step-revisions and sets under 30 days old, so the Sep 19 → Sep 26 step partly reflects that basis change rather than trading. All prices USD volume-weighted average.

Cross-Market Comparison

The four-way agreement of a fortnight ago has given way to a three-way split. One Piece is the laggard with an eighth consecutive decline — every tier lower, BGS 10 off 4.4% and CGC 10 4.0% — though one heavily traded DON!! Card promo re-key carries much of that slab move. Pokemon diverged internally instead: loose raw fell 1.1% while all four graded tiers firmed 2.2–2.5% and weighted market value rose 3.1%, the only gain anywhere this week. Magic and Yu-Gi-Oh! both did almost nothing, with no tier on either game moving more than a percent — notably, Yu-Gi-Oh!'s run of across-the-board weekly falls has stopped.

A note on this week's figures — the basis changed. From 3 October 2026 every average on this page is a winsorized volume-weighted mean: prices are capped at the 99th percentile before averaging. A plain mean can be swung several percent by one mis-keyed row, which is what produced a spurious +9.2% Pokemon PSA 10 reading a week ago and a 23–27% overstatement of Magic's graded tiers. Capping removes that sensitivity structurally, so the two patches it used to need — a ±60% week-over-week filter and a hand-maintained list of bad rows — have both been retired. Levels are therefore lower than in editions before this one and are not directly comparable to them; week-over-week changes are. Sets released within 30 days are still held out, because new-set inflation affects a whole set at once rather than a few extreme rows: currently 30th Celebration, the English 26LP World Championship pack, and Magic's unreleased Reality Fracture. One thing capping cannot fix: a single Dodgers DON!! promo whose price stepped 49% in a day on doubled volume carries much of One Piece's BGS 10 decline, because the distortion is in its weight, not in an extreme price.

Singapore Price Benchmarks

Use these volume-weighted averages as a sanity check when browsing Carousell, Telegram groups, or local TCG shops. Listings significantly below the benchmark are worth a closer look; listings significantly above may be priced on hype rather than market data.

SGD converted at 1.36 USD/SGD. These are weighted averages across all cards in each TCG — individual set or card prices will differ. Use tcgTalk Price Comparison for card-level SGD pricing.

Frequently Asked Questions

How is the weighted average price calculated?

Each card's price is weighted by its sales-volume (transaction count from PriceCharting). A card with 500 transactions influences the average 50× more than one with 10 transactions. Cards with zero volume are excluded entirely.

How often is this guide updated?

Every Monday, comparing the latest available snapshot to the file from 7 days prior.

Why is One Piece's average raw price so much higher?

One Piece has a smaller card pool (~11K cards) concentrated around recent, high-value sets. The most-traded cards are chase rares from OP07–OP15, which pulls the volume-weighted average well above Pokemon or Magic.

Why do One Piece graded prices keep falling while raw prices rise?

This divergence typically signals profit-taking on slabs — collectors who graded cards during a run-up and are now selling graded copies into the market, softening slab prices while raw demand stays healthy.

What do these numbers mean for Singapore collectors?

The SGD benchmark table gives you a real-market anchor. If you see a raw Pokemon card listed on Carousell for well under S$63 and it's a standard single, that may be underpriced. Conversely, paying S$300+ per One Piece PSA 10 is above the market-weighted mean.

Data sourced from PriceCharting daily CSV exports. Analysis by tcgTalk. Prices in USD from PriceCharting; SGD converted at 1.36. Updated Oct 3, 2026. Past price movements do not guarantee future performance.