2025 Topps Marvel Studios Chrome Sapphire Pack Odds Calculator
Set how many packs you’re opening then pick the card you’re chasing from the dropdown. The big figure is your chance of pulling at least one of that parallel, autograph or insert across your packs; the table below prices every parallel at once. All rates are Topps’ official published odds.
| Parallel | Per pack | ≥1 in 24 | Expected |
|---|---|---|---|
| Base Parallels | |||
| Parallel | 1:1 | 100% | — |
| Base Set Green Sapphire Parallel | 1:5 | 100% | 4.80 |
| Base Set Gold Sapphire Parallel | 1:9 | 94% | 2.67 |
| Base Set Orange Sapphire Parallel | 1:17 | 77% | 1.41 |
| Base Set Purple Sapphire Parallel | 1:28 | 58% | 0.86 |
| Single Autos Blue Sapphire Parallel | 1:32 | 53% | 0.75 |
| Base Set Black Sapphire Parallel | 1:42 | 44% | 0.57 |
| Single Autos Orange Sapphire Parallel | 1:62 | 32% | 0.39 |
| Sapphire Selections | 1:80 | 26% | 0.30 |
| Base Set Red Sapphire Parallel | 1:84 | 25% | 0.29 |
| Single Autos Black Sapphire Parallel | 1:134 | 16% | 0.18 |
| Sapphire Selections Gold Sapphire Parallel | 1:169 | 13% | 0.14 |
| Single Autos Red Sapphire Parallel | 1:259 | 8.9% | 0.09 |
| Sapphire Selections Orange Sapphire Parallel | 1:334 | 6.9% | 0.07 |
| Dual Autos Blue Sapphire Parallel | 1:407 | 5.7% | 0.06 |
| Base Set Padpradascha Sapphire Parallel | 1:420 | 5.6% | 0.06 |
| Sapphire Selections Purple Sapphire Parallel | 1:557 | 4.2% | 0.04 |
| Dual Autos Red Sapphire Parallel | 1:814 | 2.9% | 0.03 |
| Sapphire Selections Black Sapphire Parallel | 1:835 | 2.8% | 0.03 |
| Trio Autos Blue Sapphire Parallel | 1:1,163 | 2.0% | 0.02 |
| Single Autos Padpradascha Sapphire Parallel | 1:1,292 | 1.8% | 0.02 |
| Sapphire Selections Red Sapphire Parallel | 1:1,706 | 1.4% | 0.01 |
| Trio Autos Red Sapphire Parallel | 1:2,326 | 1.0% | 0.01 |
| Dual Autos Padpradascha Sapphire Parallel | 1:4,070 | 0.6% | 0.01 |
| Sapphire Selections Padpradascha Sapphire Parallel | 1:11,452 | 0.2% | 0 |
| Trio Autos Padpradascha Sapphire Parallel | 1:11,626 | 0.2% | 0 |
| Inserts | |||
| Sketch Card Gold Foil | 1:161 | 14% | 0.15 |
| Sketch Card Black Foil | 1:1,956 | 1.2% | 0.01 |
These are Topps’ official published odds for 2025 Topps Marvel Studios Chrome Sapphire (Pack). A parallel’s rate is for any card in that parallel — a specific player is far rarer. The model treats each pack as an independent draw at the stated rate; real collation clusters hits.
How the Odds Are Calculated
Topps prints the pull rate of every parallel as “1 in N packs.” The calculator turns that into the numbers people actually ask for:
- Chance of ≥1 — the probability at least one of your packs has that card,
1 − (1 − 1/N)^packs. - Expected — the average number across your packs,
packs / N. - Packs to a 50 / 90 / 95% shot — solving the same formula backwards,
ln(1 − t) / ln(1 − 1/N).
Two honest caveats. A parallel’s odds are for any card in that parallel — a specific player is much rarer. And the model assumes each pack is an independent draw at the stated rate; real Topps collation can cluster or space out hits, so a live box can over- or under-shoot.
Disclaimer: Odds are Topps’ official published figures for 2025 Topps Marvel Studios Chrome Sapphire. The calculator models each pack as an independent draw at the stated per-pack rate; real openings vary. Not financial advice.