2026 Topps Chrome Sapphire Pack Odds Calculator
Set how many packs you’re opening then pick the card you’re chasing from the dropdown. The big figure is your chance of pulling at least one of that parallel, autograph or insert across your packs; the table below prices every parallel at once. All rates are Topps’ official published odds.
| Parallel | Per pack | ≥1 in 24 | Expected |
|---|---|---|---|
| Base Parallels | |||
| Base Cards Gold Sapphire | 1:7 | 98% | 3.43 |
| Base Cards White Sapphire | 1:12 | 88% | 2 |
| Base Cards Orange Sapphire | 1:14 | 83% | 1.71 |
| Base Card Image Variations Sapphire | 1:28 | 58% | 0.86 |
| Base Cards Black Sapphire | 1:35 | 50% | 0.69 |
| Base Card Image Variations Gold Sapphire | 1:42 | 44% | 0.57 |
| Base Cards Red Sapphire | 1:70 | 29% | 0.34 |
| Base Card Image Variations Orange Sapphire | 1:84 | 25% | 0.29 |
| Base Card Image Variations Black Sapphire | 1:209 | 11% | 0.11 |
| Base Cards Padpardascha | 1:344 | 6.7% | 0.07 |
| Base Card Image Variations Red Sapphire | 1:417 | 5.6% | 0.06 |
| Base Card Image Variations Padpardascha | 1:2,064 | 1.2% | 0.01 |
| Autographs | |||
| Topps Chrome Sapphire Autographs | 1:24 | 64% | 1 |
| Topps Chrome Sapphire Autographs Green | 1:35 | 50% | 0.69 |
| Topps Chrome Sapphire Autographs Purple | 1:46 | 41% | 0.52 |
| Topps Chrome Sapphire Autographs Gold | 1:64 | 31% | 0.38 |
| Topps Chrome Sapphire Autographs Orange | 1:130 | 17% | 0.18 |
| Sapphire Selections Autographs | 1:155 | 14% | 0.15 |
| Topps Chrome Sapphire Autographs Black | 1:327 | 7.1% | 0.07 |
| Sapphire Selections Autographs Orange | 1:371 | 6.3% | 0.06 |
| Topps Chrome Sapphire Autographs Red | 1:621 | 3.8% | 0.04 |
| Sapphire Selections Autographs Black | 1:784 | 3.0% | 0.03 |
| Sapphire Selections Autographs Red | 1:1,556 | 1.5% | 0.02 |
| Topps Chrome Sapphire Autographs Padpardascha | 1:3,065 | 0.8% | 0.01 |
| Sapphire Selections Autographs Padpardascha | 1:7,779 | 0.3% | 0 |
These are Topps’ official published odds for 2026 Topps Chrome Sapphire (Standard). A parallel’s rate is for any card in that parallel — a specific player is far rarer. The model treats each pack as an independent draw at the stated rate; real collation clusters hits.
How the Odds Are Calculated
Topps prints the pull rate of every parallel as “1 in N packs.” The calculator turns that into the numbers people actually ask for:
- Chance of ≥1 — the probability at least one of your packs has that card,
1 − (1 − 1/N)^packs. - Expected — the average number across your packs,
packs / N. - Packs to a 50 / 90 / 95% shot — solving the same formula backwards,
ln(1 − t) / ln(1 − 1/N).
Two honest caveats. A parallel’s odds are for any card in that parallel — a specific player is much rarer. And the model assumes each pack is an independent draw at the stated rate; real Topps collation can cluster or space out hits, so a live box can over- or under-shoot.
Disclaimer: Odds are Topps’ official published figures for 2026 Topps Chrome Sapphire. The calculator models each pack as an independent draw at the stated per-pack rate; real openings vary. Not financial advice.