2026 Topps Chrome UFC Sapphire Pack Odds Calculator
Set how many packs you’re opening then pick the card you’re chasing from the dropdown. The big figure is your chance of pulling at least one of that parallel, autograph or insert across your packs; the table below prices every parallel at once. All rates are Topps’ official published odds.
| Parallel | Per pack | ≥1 in 24 | Expected |
|---|---|---|---|
| Base Parallels | |||
| Base Sapphire | 3:1 | 100% | — |
| Base Sapphire Yellow | 1:6 | 99% | 4 |
| Base Sapphire Gold | 1:9 | 94% | 2.67 |
| Base Sapphire Orange | 1:17 | 77% | 1.41 |
| Sapphire Selections | 1:40 | 46% | 0.60 |
| Base Sapphire Black | 1:41 | 45% | 0.59 |
| Base Sapphire Red | 1:81 | 26% | 0.30 |
| 1986 Topps Signatures Sapphire | 1:91 | 23% | 0.26 |
| 1986 Topps Signatures Sapphire Orange | 1:109 | 20% | 0.22 |
| Sapphire Selections Orange | 1:216 | 11% | 0.11 |
| Marks of Champions Sapphire | 1:270 | 8.5% | 0.09 |
| Marks of Champions Sapphire Orange | 1:324 | 7.2% | 0.07 |
| Base Sapphire Padparadscha | 1:405 | 5.8% | 0.06 |
| 1986 Topps Signatures Sapphire Red | 1:540 | 4.4% | 0.04 |
| Sapphire Selections Red | 1:1080 | 2.2% | 0.02 |
| Marks of Champions Sapphire Red | 1:1620 | 1.5% | 0.01 |
| 1986 Topps Signatures Sapphire Padparadscha | 1:2699 | 0.9% | 0.01 |
| Sapphire Selections Superfractor | 1:5398 | 0.4% | 0 |
| Marks of Champions Sapphire Padparadscha | 1:8096 | 0.3% | 0 |
| Inserts | |||
| Infinite | 1:80 | 26% | 0.30 |
| Autographs | |||
| Base Autograph Variations Sapphire | 1:31 | 54% | 0.77 |
| Base Autograph Variations Sapphire Orange | 1:37 | 48% | 0.65 |
| Chrome Lineage Autographs Sapphire | 1:96 | 22% | 0.25 |
| Chrome Lineage Autographs Sapphire Orange | 1:114 | 19% | 0.21 |
| Future Stars Autographs Sapphire | 1:143 | 16% | 0.17 |
| Future Stars Autographs Sapphire Orange | 1:162 | 14% | 0.15 |
| Base Autograph Variations Sapphire Red | 1:183 | 12% | 0.13 |
| Octagon Legends Autographs Sapphire | 1:270 | 8.5% | 0.09 |
| Octagon Legends Autographs Sapphire Orange | 1:324 | 7.2% | 0.07 |
| Chrome Lineage Autographs Sapphire Red | 1:559 | 4.2% | 0.04 |
| Future Stars Autographs Sapphire Red | 1:810 | 2.9% | 0.03 |
| Base Autograph Variations Sapphire Padparadscha | 1:910 | 2.6% | 0.03 |
| Octagon Legends Autographs Sapphire Red | 1:1620 | 1.5% | 0.01 |
| Chrome Lineage Autographs Sapphire Padparadscha | 1:2792 | 0.9% | 0.01 |
| Future Stars Autographs Sapphire Padparadscha | 1:4048 | 0.6% | 0.01 |
| Octagon Legends Autographs Sapphire Padparadscha | 1:8096 | 0.3% | 0 |
These are Topps’ official published odds for 2026 Topps Chrome UFC Sapphire (Standard). A parallel’s rate is for any card in that parallel — a specific player is far rarer. The model treats each pack as an independent draw at the stated rate; real collation clusters hits.
How the Odds Are Calculated
Topps prints the pull rate of every parallel as “1 in N packs.” The calculator turns that into the numbers people actually ask for:
- Chance of ≥1 — the probability at least one of your packs has that card,
1 − (1 − 1/N)^packs. - Expected — the average number across your packs,
packs / N. - Packs to a 50 / 90 / 95% shot — solving the same formula backwards,
ln(1 − t) / ln(1 − 1/N).
Two honest caveats. A parallel’s odds are for any card in that parallel — a specific player is much rarer. And the model assumes each pack is an independent draw at the stated rate; real Topps collation can cluster or space out hits, so a live box can over- or under-shoot.
Disclaimer: Odds are Topps’ official published figures for 2026 Topps Chrome UFC Sapphire. The calculator models each pack as an independent draw at the stated per-pack rate; real openings vary. Not financial advice.