An interactive 2026 UFC Chrome pack odds calculator built on Topps' official published odds. Enter how many packs you're opening — pick any refractor, parallel, autograph or insert — and get your live chance of at least one, the expected count, and how many packs it takes for a 50/90/95% shot.
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By tcgtalk
Apr 2026· 5 min read
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Configurations
4
Odds Rows
573
Autographs
36
Base Parallels
72
2026 UFC Chrome Pack Odds Calculator
Set how many packs you’re opening, choose your product configuration, then pick the card you’re chasing from the dropdown. The big figure is your chance of pulling at least one of that parallel, autograph or insert across your packs; the table below prices every parallel at once. All rates are Topps’ official published odds.
Product configuration
How many packs are you opening?
packs
What are you chasing?
24 packs · Hobby · Base Autograph Variations
77%
chance of at least one Base Autograph Variations across 24 packs
≈ 1.41 expectedbase 1 in 17≈ 12 packs for 50%
Packs to hit
Parallel
Per pack
≥1 in 24
Expected
Base Autograph Variations
1:17
77%
1.41
Base Autograph Variations Refractor
1:47
40%
0.51
Base Autograph Variations Blue Refractor
1:84
25%
0.29
Chrome Lineage Autographs
1:112
19%
0.21
Chrome Lineage Autographs Refractor
1:191
12%
0.13
Future Stars Autographs
1:193
12%
0.12
Base Autograph Variations Gold Refractor
1:243
9.4%
0.10
Chrome Lineage Autographs Blue Refractor
1:248
9.2%
0.10
Future Stars Autographs Refractor
1:305
7.6%
0.08
Future Stars Autographs Blue Refractor
1:400
5.8%
0.06
Octagon Legends Autographs
1:419
5.6%
0.06
Base Autograph Variations Orange Refractor
1:485
4.8%
0.05
Octagon Legends Autographs Refractor
1:684
3.5%
0.04
Chrome Lineage Autographs Gold Refractor
1:745
3.2%
0.03
Octagon Legends Autographs Blue Refractor
1:799
3.0%
0.03
Future Stars Autographs Gold Refractor
1:1199
2.0%
0.02
Base Autograph Variations Black Refractor
1:1236
1.9%
0.02
Chrome Lineage Autographs Orange Refractor
1:1492
1.6%
0.02
Octagon Legends Autographs Gold Refractor
1:2201
1.1%
0.01
Future Stars Autographs Orange Refractor
1:2360
1.0%
0.01
Base Autograph Variations Red Refractor
1:2424
1.0%
0.01
Chrome Lineage Autographs Black Refractor
1:3719
0.6%
0.01
Octagon Legends Autographs Orange Refractor
1:4313
0.6%
0.01
Future Stars Autographs Black Refractor
1:5392
0.4%
0
Quoted Autographs
1:5446
0.4%
0
Chrome Lineage Autographs Red Refractor
1:7437
0.3%
0
Octagon Legends Autographs Black Refractor
1:10783
0.2%
0
Future Stars Autographs Red Refractor
1:10783
0.2%
0
Quoted Autographs Red Refractor
1:10783
0.2%
0
Base Autograph Variations Superfractors
1:12253
0.2%
0
Octagon Legends Autographs Red Refractor
1:21565
0.1%
0
Chrome Lineage Autographs Superfractor
1:37181
0.1%
0
Future Stars Autographs Superfractors
1:53912
0.0%
0
Quoted Autographs SuperFractor
1:53912
0.0%
0
Octagon Legends Autographs Superfractors
1:107824
0.0%
0
UFC Debut Patch Autographs
1:132084
0.0%
0
These are Topps’ official published odds for 2026 UFC Chrome (Hobby). A parallel’s rate is for any card in that parallel — a specific player is far rarer. The model treats each pack as an independent draw at the stated rate; real collation clusters hits.
tcgTalk Topps Tools
Browse every Topps odds calculator
Compare pull rates across Chrome, Bowman, Finest, UFC, F1 and more — every set's official odds in one place.
Topps prints the pull rate of every parallel as “1 in N packs.” The calculator turns that into the numbers people actually ask for:
Chance of ≥1 — the probability at least one of your packs has that card, 1 − (1 − 1/N)^packs.
Expected — the average number across your packs, packs / N.
Packs to a 50 / 90 / 95% shot — solving the same formula backwards, ln(1 − t) / ln(1 − 1/N).
Two honest caveats. A parallel’s odds are for any card in that parallel — a specific player is much rarer. And the model assumes each pack is an independent draw at the stated rate; real Topps collation can cluster or space out hits, so a live box can over- or under-shoot.
Disclaimer: Odds are Topps’ official published figures for 2026 UFC Chrome. The calculator models each pack as an independent draw at the stated per-pack rate; real openings vary. Not financial advice.
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