Advertisement
Configurations
4
Odds Rows
573
Autographs
36
Base Parallels
72
2026 UFC Chrome Pack Odds Calculator
Set how many packs you’re opening, choose your product configuration, then pick the card you’re chasing from the dropdown. The big figure is your chance of pulling at least one of that parallel, autograph or insert across your packs; the table below prices every parallel at once. All rates are Topps’ official published odds.
Product configuration
How many packs are you opening?
packs
What are you chasing?
24 packs · Hobby · Base Autograph Variations
77%
chance of at least one Base Autograph Variations across 24 packs
≈ 1.41 expectedbase 1 in 17≈ 12 packs for 50%
Packs to hit
Every parallel in Hobby
| Parallel | Per pack | ≥1 in 24 | Expected |
|---|---|---|---|
| Base Parallels | |||
| Base Refractor | 1:3 | 100% | 8 |
| Base Prism Refractor | 1:4 | 100% | 6 |
| Base Negative Refractor | 1:4 | 100% | 6 |
| Base Sonar Refractor | 1:6 | 99% | 4 |
| All-Action Refractor | 1:11 | 90% | 2.18 |
| Base Magenta Refractor | 1:13 | 85% | 1.85 |
| Base Teal Refractor | 1:17 | 77% | 1.41 |
| Striking Distance Refractor | 1:18 | 75% | 1.33 |
| Base Yellow Refractor | 1:19 | 73% | 1.26 |
| Base Pink Refractor | 1:21 | 69% | 1.14 |
| Base Aqua Refractor | 1:26 | 61% | 0.92 |
| 1986 Topps Refractor | 1:27 | 60% | 0.89 |
| Base Blue Refractor | 1:34 | 51% | 0.71 |
| Base Green Refractor | 1:52 | 37% | 0.46 |
| All-Action Blue Refractor | 1:71 | 29% | 0.34 |
| Base Gold Refractor | 1:102 | 21% | 0.24 |
| All-Action Green Refractor | 1:107 | 20% | 0.22 |
| Striking Distance Blue Refractor | 1:118 | 18% | 0.20 |
| 1986 Topps Blue Refractor | 1:177 | 13% | 0.14 |
| Striking Distance Green Refractor | 1:178 | 13% | 0.13 |
| 1986 Topps Signatures Refractor | 1:182 | 12% | 0.13 |
| Base Orange Refractor | 1:204 | 11% | 0.12 |
| All-Action Gold Refractor | 1:212 | 11% | 0.11 |
| 1986 Topps Signatures Blue Refractor | 1:241 | 9.5% | 0.10 |
| 1986 Topps Green Refractor | 1:267 | 8.6% | 0.09 |
| Striking Distance Gold Refractor | 1:353 | 6.6% | 0.07 |
| All-Action Orange Refractor | 1:423 | 5.5% | 0.06 |
| Big Ticket Gold Refractor | 1:432 | 5.4% | 0.06 |
| Split Decision Gold Refractor | 1:432 | 5.4% | 0.06 |
| Base Black Refractor | 1:509 | 4.6% | 0.05 |
| 1986 Topps Gold Refractor | 1:529 | 4.4% | 0.05 |
| Fight Night Flashback Gold Refractor | 1:540 | 4.4% | 0.04 |
| Marks of Champions Refractor | 1:540 | 4.4% | 0.04 |
| Striking Distance Orange Refractor | 1:705 | 3.3% | 0.03 |
| Pulse Check Gold Refractor | 1:719 | 3.3% | 0.03 |
| Youthquake Gold Refractor | 1:719 | 3.3% | 0.03 |
| Marks of Champions Blue Refractor | 1:719 | 3.3% | 0.03 |
| 1986 Topps Signatures Gold Refractor | 1:721 | 3.3% | 0.03 |
| Base Red Refractor | 1:1017 | 2.3% | 0.02 |
| All-Action Black Refractor | 1:1057 | 2.2% | 0.02 |
| 1986 Topps Orange Refractor | 1:1057 | 2.2% | 0.02 |
| 1986 Topps Signatures Orange Refractor | 1:1438 | 1.7% | 0.02 |
| Striking Distance Black Refractor | 1:1762 | 1.4% | 0.01 |
| All-Action Red Refractor | 1:2114 | 1.1% | 0.01 |
| Big Ticket Black Refractor | 1:2157 | 1.1% | 0.01 |
| Split Decision Black Refractor | 1:2157 | 1.1% | 0.01 |
| Marks of Champions Gold Refractor | 1:2360 | 1.0% | 0.01 |
| 1986 Topps Black Refractor | 1:2642 | 0.9% | 0.01 |
| Fight Night Flashback Black Refractor | 1:2696 | 0.9% | 0.01 |
| Striking Distance Red Refractor | 1:3523 | 0.7% | 0.01 |
| 2025 Chrome UFC Buyback X-Fractor | 1:3523 | 0.7% | 0.01 |
| Pulse Check Black Refractor | 1:3595 | 0.7% | 0.01 |
| Youthquake Black Refractor | 1:3595 | 0.7% | 0.01 |
| 1986 Topps Signatures Black Refractor | 1:3595 | 0.7% | 0.01 |
| 2025 Chrome UFC Buyback Prism Refractor | 1:4227 | 0.6% | 0.01 |
| Big Ticket Red Refractor | 1:4313 | 0.6% | 0.01 |
| Split Decision Red Refractor | 1:4313 | 0.6% | 0.01 |
| Marks of Champions Orange Refractor | 1:4313 | 0.6% | 0.01 |
| Vanquisher Ink Red Refractor | 1:4879 | 0.5% | 0 |
| 1986 Topps Red Refractor | 1:5284 | 0.5% | 0 |
| Fight Night Flashback Red Refractor | 1:5392 | 0.4% | 0 |
| 2025 Chrome UFC Buyback Refractor | 1:7045 | 0.3% | 0 |
| Pulse Check Red Refractor | 1:7189 | 0.3% | 0 |
| Youthquake Red Refractor | 1:7189 | 0.3% | 0 |
| 1986 Topps Signatures Red Refractor | 1:7189 | 0.3% | 0 |
| Topps 2009 Variation Signatures Red Refractor | 1:7758 | 0.3% | 0 |
| 2025 Chrome UFC Buyback Sepia Refractor | 1:8454 | 0.3% | 0 |
| 2025 Chrome UFC Buyback Negative Refractor | 1:10674 | 0.2% | 0 |
| Marks of Champions Black Refractor | 1:10783 | 0.2% | 0 |
| 2025 Chrome UFC Buyback Red & Blue Refractor | 1:14089 | 0.2% | 0 |
| 2025 Chrome UFC Buyback Purple Refractor | 1:21134 | 0.1% | 0 |
| Marks of Champions Red Refractor | 1:21565 | 0.1% | 0 |
| Inserts | |||
| Base | 5:1 | 100% | — |
| All-Action | 1:3 | 100% | 8 |
| Striking Distance | 1:5 | 100% | 4.80 |
| 1986 Topps | 1:8 | 96% | 3 |
| Big Ticket | 1:57 | 35% | 0.42 |
| Split Decision | 1:57 | 35% | 0.42 |
| Fight Night Flashback | 1:71 | 29% | 0.34 |
| Kings & Queens | 1:72 | 29% | 0.33 |
| Pulse Check | 1:94 | 23% | 0.26 |
| Youthquake | 1:94 | 23% | 0.26 |
| 1986 Topps Signatures | 1:106 | 20% | 0.23 |
| Immortal Force | 1:288 | 8.0% | 0.08 |
| Radiating Rookies | 1:288 | 8.0% | 0.08 |
| Marks of Champions | 1:309 | 7.5% | 0.08 |
| FrozenFractors(#'d -5,-4,-3,-2,-1) | 1:529 | 4.4% | 0.05 |
| Base OctaFractor | 1:636 | 3.7% | 0.04 |
| Helix | 1:1554 | 1.5% | 0.02 |
| Vanquisher Ink | 1:2434 | 1.0% | 0.01 |
| Hidden Gems | 1:3582 | 0.7% | 0.01 |
| Let's Go | 1:3582 | 0.7% | 0.01 |
| Topps 2009 Variation Signatures | 1:3893 | 0.6% | 0.01 |
| Base Superfractors | 1:5081 | 0.5% | 0 |
| All-Action Superfractors | 1:10567 | 0.2% | 0 |
| Striking Distance Superfractors | 1:17612 | 0.1% | 0 |
| Hidden Gems Citrine | 1:17910 | 0.1% | 0 |
| Big Ticket Superfractors | 1:21565 | 0.1% | 0 |
| Split Decision Superfractors | 1:21565 | 0.1% | 0 |
| Vanquisher Ink SuperFractor | 1:23961 | 0.1% | 0 |
| 1986 Topps Superfractors | 1:26417 | 0.1% | 0 |
| Fight Night Flashback Superfractors | 1:26956 | 0.1% | 0 |
| Hidden Gems Alexandrite | 1:35820 | 0.1% | 0 |
| Pulse Check Superfractors | 1:35942 | 0.1% | 0 |
| Youthquake Superfractors | 1:35942 | 0.1% | 0 |
| 1986 Topps Signatures Superfractor | 1:35942 | 0.1% | 0 |
| Topps 2009 Variation Signatures SuperFractor | 1:38509 | 0.1% | 0 |
| Marks of Champions Superfractor | 1:107824 | 0.0% | 0 |
| Helix Superfractor | 1:155393 | 0.0% | 0 |
| Hidden Gems Painite | 1:179097 | 0.0% | 0 |
| Let's Go Superfractor | 1:179097 | 0.0% | 0 |
| Autographs | |||
| Base Autograph Variations | 1:17 | 77% | 1.41 |
| Base Autograph Variations Refractor | 1:47 | 40% | 0.51 |
| Base Autograph Variations Blue Refractor | 1:84 | 25% | 0.29 |
| Chrome Lineage Autographs | 1:112 | 19% | 0.21 |
| Chrome Lineage Autographs Refractor | 1:191 | 12% | 0.13 |
| Future Stars Autographs | 1:193 | 12% | 0.12 |
| Base Autograph Variations Gold Refractor | 1:243 | 9.4% | 0.10 |
| Chrome Lineage Autographs Blue Refractor | 1:248 | 9.2% | 0.10 |
| Future Stars Autographs Refractor | 1:305 | 7.6% | 0.08 |
| Future Stars Autographs Blue Refractor | 1:400 | 5.8% | 0.06 |
| Octagon Legends Autographs | 1:419 | 5.6% | 0.06 |
| Base Autograph Variations Orange Refractor | 1:485 | 4.8% | 0.05 |
| Octagon Legends Autographs Refractor | 1:684 | 3.5% | 0.04 |
| Chrome Lineage Autographs Gold Refractor | 1:745 | 3.2% | 0.03 |
| Octagon Legends Autographs Blue Refractor | 1:799 | 3.0% | 0.03 |
| Future Stars Autographs Gold Refractor | 1:1199 | 2.0% | 0.02 |
| Base Autograph Variations Black Refractor | 1:1236 | 1.9% | 0.02 |
| Chrome Lineage Autographs Orange Refractor | 1:1492 | 1.6% | 0.02 |
| Octagon Legends Autographs Gold Refractor | 1:2201 | 1.1% | 0.01 |
| Future Stars Autographs Orange Refractor | 1:2360 | 1.0% | 0.01 |
| Base Autograph Variations Red Refractor | 1:2424 | 1.0% | 0.01 |
| Chrome Lineage Autographs Black Refractor | 1:3719 | 0.6% | 0.01 |
| Octagon Legends Autographs Orange Refractor | 1:4313 | 0.6% | 0.01 |
| Future Stars Autographs Black Refractor | 1:5392 | 0.4% | 0 |
| Quoted Autographs | 1:5446 | 0.4% | 0 |
| Chrome Lineage Autographs Red Refractor | 1:7437 | 0.3% | 0 |
| Octagon Legends Autographs Black Refractor | 1:10783 | 0.2% | 0 |
| Future Stars Autographs Red Refractor | 1:10783 | 0.2% | 0 |
| Quoted Autographs Red Refractor | 1:10783 | 0.2% | 0 |
| Base Autograph Variations Superfractors | 1:12253 | 0.2% | 0 |
| Octagon Legends Autographs Red Refractor | 1:21565 | 0.1% | 0 |
| Chrome Lineage Autographs Superfractor | 1:37181 | 0.1% | 0 |
| Future Stars Autographs Superfractors | 1:53912 | 0.0% | 0 |
| Quoted Autographs SuperFractor | 1:53912 | 0.0% | 0 |
| Octagon Legends Autographs Superfractors | 1:107824 | 0.0% | 0 |
| UFC Debut Patch Autographs | 1:132084 | 0.0% | 0 |
These are Topps’ official published odds for 2026 UFC Chrome (Hobby). A parallel’s rate is for any card in that parallel — a specific player is far rarer. The model treats each pack as an independent draw at the stated rate; real collation clusters hits.
tcgTalk Topps Tools
Browse every Topps odds calculator
Compare pull rates across Chrome, Bowman, Finest, UFC, F1 and more — every set's official odds in one place.
How the Odds Are Calculated
Topps prints the pull rate of every parallel as “1 in N packs.” The calculator turns that into the numbers people actually ask for:
- Chance of ≥1 — the probability at least one of your packs has that card,
1 − (1 − 1/N)^packs. - Expected — the average number across your packs,
packs / N. - Packs to a 50 / 90 / 95% shot — solving the same formula backwards,
ln(1 − t) / ln(1 − 1/N).
Two honest caveats. A parallel’s odds are for any card in that parallel — a specific player is much rarer. And the model assumes each pack is an independent draw at the stated rate; real Topps collation can cluster or space out hits, so a live box can over- or under-shoot.
Disclaimer: Odds are Topps’ official published figures for 2026 UFC Chrome. The calculator models each pack as an independent draw at the stated per-pack rate; real openings vary. Not financial advice.
Advertisement