Munetaka Murakami is an MLB player, and 2026 MLB Topps NOW® Card 753 is a Topps NOW® card — the line Topps uses to commemorate a specific recent on-field performance, printed to order during a short sales window and then never again. We hold no sourced detail on the performance itself, so this page does not describe it. What it does have is the thing a calculator actually needs: the card’s published parallel structure, which is eight numbered tiers and 107 numbered copies.
And one detail that makes Card 753 the most instructive card in this family. Three card numbers away sits Drew Rasmussen’s Card 756, whose ladder is the same as this one copy for copy — same five Foil parallels, same /10 and /5 Relic Redemptions, same 107 numbered copies. Every probability on the two pages is interchangeable. But the card at the very top of the ladder is not the same card: Card 756 finishes with a 1/1 Relic Redemption, and Card 753 finishes with a 1/1 Auto-Relic Redemption — a relic that is also signed. Identical odds, different prize.
Munetaka Murakami Card 753 Pull-Rate Calculator
Enter the final print run (or drag the slider to model a scenario) and how many cards you ordered. The headline is your chance of landing at least one of the tier you pick, with the expected count and the order size a 50%, 90% or 95% shot would take — plus a row for every Foil parallel and every redemption at once.
| Parallel | Copies | Per card | ≥1 in 5 | Expected |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Foil Parallels | ||||
| /50 Gold Foil | 50 | 1 in 20 | 23% | 0.250 |
| /25 Orange Foil | 25 | 1 in 40 | 12% | 0.125 |
| /10 Black Foil | 10 | 1 in 100 | 4.90% | 0.050 |
| /5 Red Foil | 5 | 1 in 200 | 2.48% | 0.025 |
| 1/1 FoilFractor | 1 | 1 in 1,000 | 0.499% | 0.0050 |
| Relic Redemptions | ||||
| /10 Relic Redemption | 10 | 1 in 100 | 4.90% | 0.050 |
| /5 Relic Redemption | 5 | 1 in 200 | 2.48% | 0.025 |
| 1/1 Auto-Relic Redemption | 1 | 1 in 1,000 | 0.499% | 0.0050 |
Topps NOW® cards are print-to-order: a parallel numbered to /N has exactly N copies no matter how large the print run grows, so a bigger run makes every numbered card rarer per order — and only above the stated thresholds do the Chrome and Opal tiers exist at all. The model treats each card in your order as an independent draw; Topps does not publish per-order collation, so a real order can over- or under-shoot. The print run is confirmed only after the sales window closes.
Two Cards, 107 Identical Copies, One Different Prize
Put the two ladders side by side and the whole lesson of this page is visible in a single column. Copy counts match on all eight rows; names match on seven:
| Copies | Munetaka Murakami Card 753 | Drew Rasmussen Card 756 | Same card? |
|---|---|---|---|
| 50 | /50 Gold Foil | /50 Gold Foil | Yes |
| 25 | /25 Orange Foil | /25 Orange Foil | Yes |
| 10 | /10 Black Foil | /10 Black Foil | Yes |
| 5 | /5 Red Foil | /5 Red Foil | Yes |
| 1 | 1/1 FoilFractor | 1/1 FoilFractor | Yes |
| 10 | /10 Relic Redemption | /10 Relic Redemption | Yes |
| 5 | /5 Relic Redemption | /5 Relic Redemption | Yes |
| 1 | 1/1 Auto-Relic Redemption | 1/1 Relic Redemption | No |
| 107 | Numbered copies in total — identical on both cards | — | |
That is as clean a demonstration as this hobby offers of a rule worth carrying to every other print-to-order card: the serial number sets the odds, and the tier’s name sets what you won. The two are independent. Swapping a plain relic for an autographed one at the top of the ladder changes nothing about the arithmetic — a 1/1 is 1 in 1,000 per card at a 1,000-card run either way — while changing a great deal about what lands in the mailbox.
The practical consequence is a warning about how people search. A collector looking up “2026 MLB Topps NOW odds” as though the line had one answer would come away with the right probabilities and the wrong chase: 107 copies over the run is correct for both cards, and “the 1/1 is a relic redemption” is correct for only one of them. Three card numbers of separation was enough. That is why we transcribe each card’s own “Look for:” list rather than inheriting a ladder from its neighbour — and why you should check the individual product page before ordering, even when you have read a page like this one about the card next door. Nothing about the line guarantees that the next card keeps either the copy counts or the tier names.
The One Number: 107 Numbered Copies
Every tier is capped at its serial, so the numbered population is a sum rather than a rate. The Foil ladder is 50 + 25 + 10 + 5 + 1 = 91. The redemption ladder is 10 + 5 + 1 = 16. Together:
| Ladder | Tiers | Copies | Share of the numbered pool |
|---|---|---|---|
| Foil Parallels | /50 Gold Foil, /25 Orange Foil, /10 Black Foil, /5 Red Foil, 1/1 FoilFractor | 91 | 85% |
| Relic & Auto-Relic Redemptions | /10 Relic Redemption, /5 Relic Redemption, 1/1 Auto-Relic Redemption | 16 | 15% |
| All numbered copies | 8 tiers | 107 | 100% |
Hardly anyone orders a Topps NOW card hunting one named parallel; they order it hoping something comes back that is not the base card. That question has one answer: the chance a given card in your order is something numbered is 107 ÷ print run, and the chance an order of k cards contains at least one is 1 − (1 − 107/run)k. The Open-Edition Base Card is unlimited, so it has no population and is not a tier — it is simply the outcome the rest of the time.
| Print Run | Any numbered card, per card | 1 card | 5 cards | 10 cards | 20 cards | Cards for 50% | Cards for 90% |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 500 | 1 in 4.7 | 21.40% | 70.00% | 91.00% | 99.19% | 3 | 10 |
| 1,000 | 1 in 9.3 | 10.70% | 43.21% | 67.75% | 89.60% | 7 | 21 |
| 2,500 | 1 in 23 | 4.28% | 19.64% | 35.43% | 58.31% | 16 | 53 |
| 5,000 | 1 in 47 | 2.14% | 10.25% | 19.45% | 35.12% | 33 | 107 |
| 10,000 | 1 in 93 | 1.07% | 5.24% | 10.20% | 19.36% | 65 | 215 |
Those print runs are modelling anchors, not estimates. We do not know what Card 753 printed, we are not guessing, and the figure only exists publicly once the window has closed. The row to read is not any single one — it is the gradient between them, which says that the aggregate is the only form of this question with a comfortable answer. At the 1,000-card anchor a 20-card order is about 89.60% to contain something numbered, against about 64.15% on the most attainable single tier (the /50 Gold Foil) and about 1.98% on either 1/1. Split by ladder at the same run and “any Foil parallel” is roughly 85.17% while “any redemption” is roughly 27.57% — the redemption ladder is thinner by 5.7× on copy count, which is where the autograph lives.
The 1/1 Pair: Equally Likely, Not Equivalent
Because the two ladders are built from the same serials, several tiers on this card share a population with another tier on the same card. The pairings are a property of the numbers, not of the presentation:
| Copies | Tiers sharing that population | Per-card odds at 1,000 | ≥1 in a 20-card order | Cards for 50% |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 10 | /10 Black Foil · /10 Relic Redemption | 1 in 100 | 18.21% | 69 |
| 5 | /5 Red Foil · /5 Relic Redemption | 1 in 200 | 9.54% | 139 |
| 1 | 1/1 FoilFractor · 1/1 Auto-Relic Redemption | 1 in 1,000 | 1.98% | 693 |
The bottom row is the one that repays attention, and it is the reason this card gets its own page rather than a line on another. The 1/1 FoilFractor and the 1/1 Auto-Relic Redemption are exactly as likely as one another — 1 in 1,000 per card at a 1,000-card run, 1.98% across a 20-card order, about 693 cards for an even-money shot — and they are not remotely the same object. One is the top of the foil treatment; the other is a slip you mail back for an autographed relic. Probability cannot tell them apart, and nothing in a percentage ever will.
Read that in both directions, because both are useful. If what you want is any one-of-one, you have two shots rather than one: treating the pair as a single two-copy target doubles the per-card chance to 1 in 500 and takes a 20-card order from 1.98% to 3.92%. But if what you want is the autograph specifically, the pair does not help you at all — half of that doubled chance resolves to a card you were not chasing. The same asymmetry applies one tier down: two /10s and two /5s each give you a second route to “a /10” or “a /5” while giving you nothing extra towards either specific card.
We make no claim about which member of a pair collectors prefer. We have no price feed for this card, and Topps does not state what either redemption yields when it is redeemed, so a ranking would be invention. The narrower point stands on its own: two tiers that read as different rarities are the same rarity.
The Per-Tier Scenario Table
Every cell below is 1 − (1 − copies/run)20 — the chance a 20-card order contains at least one copy of that tier, at each print-run anchor. The paired populations show up as repeated rows: the two /10s match down every column, so do the two /5s, and so do the two 1/1s.
| Tier | Copies | 500 run | 1,000 run | 2,500 run | 5,000 run | 10,000 run |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| /50 Gold Foil | 50 | 87.84% | 64.15% | 33.24% | 18.21% | 9.54% |
| /25 Orange Foil | 25 | 64.15% | 39.73% | 18.21% | 9.54% | 4.88% |
| /10 Black Foil | 10 | 33.24% | 18.21% | 7.70% | 3.92% | 1.98% |
| /5 Red Foil | 5 | 18.21% | 9.54% | 3.92% | 1.98% | 1.00% |
| 1/1 FoilFractor | 1 | 3.92% | 1.98% | 0.80% | 0.40% | 0.20% |
| /10 Relic Redemption | 10 | 33.24% | 18.21% | 7.70% | 3.92% | 1.98% |
| /5 Relic Redemption | 5 | 18.21% | 9.54% | 3.92% | 1.98% | 1.00% |
| 1/1 Auto-Relic Redemption | 1 | 3.92% | 1.98% | 0.80% | 0.40% | 0.20% |
| Any numbered card | 107 | 99.19% | 89.60% | 58.31% | 35.12% | 19.36% |
The per-card view is the simpler one. At the 1,000-card anchor the ladder reads 1 in 20 on the /50 Gold Foil, 1 in 40 on the /25 Orange Foil, 1 in 100 on either /10, 1 in 200 on either /5 and 1 in 1,000 on either 1/1. Scale the run and all eight scale with it in lockstep, because the numerators never move: a 10,000-card run divides each of those by ten exactly.
The expectation is worth a sentence next to those percentages, since expectation is linear where P(≥1) saturates. A 20-card order at the 1,000-card anchor expects 2.14 numbered cards; at a 10,000-card run it expects 0.21. An expectation above 1 is not a hit: 2.14 expected is entirely consistent with pulling nothing, which is what 10.40% of 20-card orders at that anchor do.
Across the modelled range the bottom row moves from 99.19% at a 500-card run down to 19.36% at 10,000 — a 5.1× spread created by nothing except how many other people bought the same card.
The Denominator You Cannot See
Print-to-order inverts the usual relationship between information and the purchase. The 107 numbered copies are fixed and published; the number they are divided by is manufactured by the sales window itself, and it is not knowable while you can still order. By the time the run is public, buying is over. So every figure on this page is a conditional probability whose condition is the one quantity nobody has yet — which is why this page is a slider and a scenario table rather than a headline number.
Two consequences, neither of them advice. First, the risk runs the opposite way to intuition: the better this card sells, the worse every tier’s odds get, because the same 107 copies are spread across more base cards. A quiet window is the friendly outcome for anyone chasing. Second, the only lever you hold is order size, and its effect is bounded and computable — the Cards for 50% and Cards for 90% columns above are that lever priced in cards.
On money we are going to be deliberately incomplete. Topps publishes a quantity-discount ladder on this line, but we have not captured Card 753’s own pricing or its sale window, and a neighbouring card’s price sheet is not this card’s price sheet any more than its 1/1 Relic Redemption was its 1/1. So there is no cost-per-shot section here. The entire argument of this page is that you cannot carry a figure across from the card next door; borrowing a price to fill a gap would contradict it in the same breath.
One modelling assumption underpins every table: each card in an order is treated as an independent draw. Topps does not publish how parallels are collated across an order, so if copies are in practice spread one-per-order, a single large order would do slightly worse than these figures say. And 89.60% is not a near-certainty: ten separate orders at 89.60% are ten independent trials, not nine guaranteed hits.
What Topps Does Not Publish
The omissions matter more than the inclusions, so here is the complete list:
- The print run. Set by demand during the sales window and published only afterwards. Every figure here is conditional on a run you supply; the five anchors are modelling scenarios and we do not estimate what Card 753 actually printed.
- Per-tier odds. There is no odds sheet, because there are no packs for one to describe. Topps states exactly one thing on the subject: “Odds of receiving a non-base card are based on total cards ordered.” Everything above is computed from the published copy counts, which are facts, and a run, which is your input.
- Order collation. How the 107 numbered copies are distributed across orders is unstated — the gap our independence assumption fills.
- What the redemptions yield. Topps lists the /10 Relic Redemption, /5 Relic Redemption, 1/1 Auto-Relic Redemption as populations and does not say what redeeming one returns — not the relic, and not whose signature is on the auto-relic. We therefore price the 16 redemption copies as copies and stop there.
- This card’s sale window and pricing. We have not captured them. Topps does publish a quantity-discount ladder for this line, but not one we hold for Card 753, so this page quotes no price, no per-card cost, no order total and no dates rather than importing a different card’s figures.
- Whether other cards share this structure. Demonstrably they do not — that is the point of the comparison above. The redemption tiers are card-specific; check each product page’s own “Look for:” list.
And one absence worth stating outright, for anyone arriving from our Messi page: this card has no Chrome, Opal, SuperFractor or OpalFractor tiers, and no print-run unlock thresholds. Those belong to the 2026-27 Argentina Messi promo alone. All 8 numbered tiers here exist at any print run, which is why no row in any table above appears or disappears as the slider moves.
Frequently Asked Questions
What are the odds of pulling something other than the base card from Munetaka Murakami's MLB Topps NOW® Card 753?
Sum every numbered copy on the card. The Foil ladder is 50 + 25 + 10 + 5 + 1 = 91 copies; the redemption ladder is 10 + 5 + 1 = 16. That is 107 numbered copies, so the chance any single card in your order is one of them is 107 ÷ print run. At a 1,000-card run that is 1 in 9.3 per card, which makes a 5-card order about 43.21% and a 20-card order about 89.60%. At a 10,000-card run the same orders fall to about 5.24% and 19.36%. The print run is set by demand during the sales window and published only afterwards, so it is your input, not ours.
Are the odds the same as on Drew Rasmussen's Card 756?
Yes — exactly the same, and that is the interesting part. Both cards carry the identical Foil ladder (/50 Gold, /25 Orange, /10 Black, /5 Red, 1/1 FoilFractor) and identical /10 and /5 Relic Redemptions, for 107 numbered copies on Card 753 against 107 on Card 756. Every probability on the two pages is interchangeable at the same print run. What differs is the prize at the very top: Card 756's is a 1/1 Relic Redemption, while Card 753's is a 1/1 Auto-Relic Redemption — an autographed relic. So reading "the 2026 MLB Topps NOW odds" generically would get your probabilities right and your chase wrong.
What are the odds of the 1/1 Auto-Relic Redemption?
It is a one-of-one, so p = 1 ÷ print run: 1 in 1,000 per card at a 1,000-card run, or about 1.98% across a 20-card order. A 50% shot at that run would take about 693 cards and a 90% shot about 2,302. Note that the 1/1 FoilFractor sits at precisely the same figures, because it is also a one-of-one — two completely different objects with the same probability. At a 500-card run a 20-card order is about 3.92% on either 1/1; at 10,000 it is about 0.20%.
How many cards would a 50% shot at something numbered take?
Using ceil( ln(0.5) ÷ ln(1 − p) ) on the aggregate p = 107 ÷ run: about 3 cards at a 500-card run, 7 at 1,000, 16 at 2,500, 33 at 5,000 and 65 at 10,000. For a 90% shot the same figures are 10, 21, 53, 107 and 215 cards. Those print runs are modelling anchors, not estimates — we do not know and do not guess what this card printed.
Does this card have Chrome, Opal, SuperFractor or print-run unlock tiers?
No. Topps' "Look for:" list for Card 753 names an Open-Edition Base Card, Foil Parallels Numbered to /50 and lower, a /10 Relic Redemption Card, a /5 Relic Redemption Card and a /1 Auto-Relic Redemption Card. The Foil ladder is /50 Gold, /25 Orange, /10 Black, /5 Red and the 1/1 FoilFractor. There is no Chrome tier, no Opal, no SuperFractor or OpalFractor, and no print-run thresholds that unlock extra tiers — all eight numbered tiers exist at any print run. That larger gated ladder belongs to a different 2026-27 Topps NOW® promo and does not apply here.
Does Topps publish per-tier odds, the print run, or Card 753's price?
There is no odds sheet, because there are no packs — Topps states only that "Odds of receiving a non-base card are based on total cards ordered." The print run is created by demand during the sales window and revealed only after it closes, which is why this page takes it as an input. On price: Topps does publish a quantity-discount ladder on this line, but we have not captured Card 753's own pricing or its sale window, so we quote neither here rather than borrowing another card's figures. Everything above is computed from the published copy counts (91 Foil, 16 redemption, 107 numbered in total) and a run you supply.
Disclaimer: Topps NOW® cards are print-to-order, and the print run is set by demand and published only after the sales window closes. Every figure here is a probability computed from Topps’ stated copy counts (91 Foil copies and 16 redemption copies, 107 numbered in total) and a print run you supply — not a guarantee, and not a forecast of what Card 753 printed. We have not captured this card’s sale window or its pricing and quote neither; we have no price feed for it and make no claim about what any copy is worth. Parallel details are transcribed from the official Topps product page and were correct at the time of writing. This is not financial advice.