Pokémon TCG: Scarlet & Violet—Black Bolt is one half of a paired release, its companion being White Flare. Both sets draw from the Unova region and introduce the Black White Rare (BWR) rarity — the first appearance of this card treatment in a Western release since the original Black & White era. The EV analysis on this page is based on Black Bolt card prices; White Flare shares the same set structure but a different card pool.
Pull rate note: No BWR card was recorded in 750 tracked pack openings. The BWR pull rate used in this analysis (~1 in 1,789 packs) is an estimate based on the lowest Mega Hyper Rare rate observed across comparable sets. Actual BWR rates may differ. All other rates are from community data.
Card prices are sourced from PriceCharting market data (USD). SGD equivalents use an approximate 1.28 exchange rate. Prices reflect current secondary market rates and will change as the set ages.
The Short Answer
Black Bolt is negative expected value at current market prices in every format. A pack costs USD $13 at market against a break-even of $7.86 — you are paying well over the mathematical break-even. The set has an unusually large IR pool (67 cards) that pulls at ~1 in 6 packs, which provides frequent hits, but the high product premium more than offsets this. If you can source packs near SGD $6.50 retail, opening becomes positive EV.
| Product | Market Price (USD) | Expected Card Value | Return at Market | Verdict |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Booster Pack | ~$13 | $7.86 | 0.61× | −EV at market. |
| Booster Bundle (6 packs) | ~$70.3 | $47.14 | 0.67× | −EV at market. |
| ~Break-even bundle | ~$47.14 USD (SGD ~$60.34) | 1.0× | Expected value equals cost. | |
| ~Break-even box (36 packs) | ~$282.83 USD (SGD ~$362) | 1.0× | Expected value equals cost. | |
The Seismitoad wildcard: Seismitoad IR (#105) at USD $220 is the most anomalous card in the set — an IR worth more than most SIRs. It alone accounts for ~$0.55 of the $7.86 EV per pack (7.0%). This price is art-driven; if collector demand for the artwork cools, overall EV will fall. Check current prices before making opening decisions.
Card Prices by Rarity
Black Bolt (172 cards) introduces a new top rarity — the Black White Rare — and features an unusually large Illustration Rare pool covering every Pokémon in the base set.
Black White Rare (★☆ BWR) — #171–172
Two cards. A brand-new rarity not seen in Western Pokémon TCG releases since the original Black & White era. Special full-art treatment with a distinctive black-and-white border. Pull rate unknown from live data; this guide uses ~0.056% (~1 in 1,789 packs), the lowest observed rate from comparable sets.
| # | Card | Price (USD) | Price (SGD est.) |
|---|---|---|---|
| 171 | Victini | $567.48 | ~$726 |
| 172 | Zekrom ex | $540.00 | ~$691 |
Pool average: $553.74 USD. Both BWRs are priced closely, which is unusual — in most sets the top card commands a significant premium over others in the same tier. This reflects genuine market uncertainty about which BWR will be more sought after long-term.
Special Illustration Rares (★★★ SIR) — #164–170
7 cards. Pull rate approximately 1.25% (~1 in 80 packs). Price range: $21–$250. Zekrom ex is the clear chase SIR at more than 3× the next card.
| # | Card | Price (USD) | Price (SGD est.) |
|---|---|---|---|
| 166 | Zekrom ex | $250.00 | ~$320 |
| 165 | Kyurem ex | $70.16 | ~$89.80 |
| 170 | N's Plan | $65.71 | ~$84.11 |
| 164 | Serperior ex | $47.50 | ~$60.80 |
| 169 | Genesect ex | $43.04 | ~$55.09 |
| 167 | Meloetta ex | $36.37 | ~$46.55 |
| 168 | Excadrill ex | $20.81 | ~$26.64 |
Pool average: $76.23 USD. Pool median: $47.50 USD. The Zekrom ex SIR heavily skews the mean — most SIR pulls land in the $20–$70 range. If you pull an SIR, you are far more likely to get something near the median than the Zekrom ex at $250.
Ultra Rares (★☆ UR) — #156–163
8 cards. Full-art versions of the ex cards and a trainer. Pull rate approximately 5.9% (~1 in 17 packs). Most are worth $1.97–$5.48 — this is a low-value UR pool relative to the set's top rarities.
| # | Card | Price (USD) |
|---|---|---|
| 158 | Zekrom ex | $5.48 |
| 163 | N's Plan | $4.50 |
| 159 | Meloetta ex | $2.61 |
| 161 | Genesect ex | $2.49 |
| 156 | Serperior ex | $2.39 |
| 162 | Fennel | $2.22 |
| 157 | Kyurem ex | $2.05 |
| 160 | Excadrill ex | $1.97 |
Pool average: $2.96 USD. Ultra Rare pulls in Black Bolt are worth far less than the IR pool average ($21.06) — an unusual inversion where a lower rarity tier drives more value than the tier above it.
Illustration Rares (★ IR) — #087–155
67 cards — one of the largest IR pools of any Pokémon TCG set. Nearly every Pokémon and trainer in the base set has a dedicated Illustration Rare version. Pull rate approximately 16.7% (~1 in 6 packs). This high pull rate plus the massive pool means IRs dominate the opening experience in Black Bolt.
The standout: Seismitoad (#105) at USD $219.85 is unlike any other IR — it is worth more than all but one SIR in the set. This is purely art-driven: the Black Bolt Seismitoad IR artwork is widely considered one of the most desirable in the set among collectors.
| # | Card | Price (USD) | Notes |
|---|---|---|---|
| 105 | Seismitoad | $219.85 | Art-driven chase IR — anomalously high for this tier |
| 147 | Haxorus | $67.00 | |
| 129 | Dwebble | $56.41 | |
| 137 | Krookodile | $52.00 | |
| 100 | Volcarona | $50.65 | |
| 151 | Audino | $36.00 | |
| 096 | Amoonguss | $33.96 | |
| 118 | Solosis | $31.50 | |
| 091 | Petilil | $30.87 | |
| 106 | Tirtouga | $30.00 | |
| 127 | Conkeldurr | $29.09 | |
| 115 | Eelektross | $28.00 | |
| 148 | Pidove | $27.89 | |
| 141 | Klinklang | $26.92 | |
| 144 | Cobalion | $26.36 | |
| 131 | Landorus | $25.72 | |
| 150 | Unfezant | $25.45 | |
| 087 | Snivy | $25.00 | |
| 089 | Pansage | $25.00 | |
| 134 | Scolipede | $24.41 | |
| 108 | Alomomola | $23.25 | |
| 146 | Fraxure | $23.00 | |
| 153 | Cinccino | $22.62 | |
| 152 | Minccino | $22.29 | |
| 114 | Eelektrik | $19.58 | |
| 094 | Karrablast | $17.41 | |
| 095 | Foongus | $17.20 | |
| 135 | Sandile | $16.50 | |
| 113 | Tynamo | $16.45 | |
| 112 | Emolga | $15.83 | |
| 109 | Cubchoo | $15.82 | |
| 138 | Escavalier | $15.56 | |
| 088 | Servine | $15.25 | |
| 116 | Munna | $15.00 | |
| 125 | Timburr | $13.40 | |
| 104 | Palpitoad | $12.50 | |
| 099 | Larvesta | $12.25 | |
| 101 | Panpour | $11.30 | |
| 097 | Darumaka | $11.24 | |
| 119 | Duosion | $10.87 | |
| 090 | Simisage | $10.57 | |
| 107 | Carracosta | $10.27 | |
| 103 | Tympole | $10.16 | |
| 123 | Golurk | $10.00 | |
| 120 | Elgyem | $9.99 | |
| 098 | Darmanitan | $9.85 | |
| 143 | Bisharp | $9.71 | |
| 126 | Gurdurr | $9.29 | |
| 117 | Musharna | $9.04 | |
| 102 | Simipour | $9.00 | |
| 110 | Beartic | $8.75 | |
| 136 | Krokorok | $8.20 | |
| 155 | Braviary | $7.98 | |
| 111 | Cryogonal | $7.35 | |
| 133 | Whirlipede | $7.00 | |
| 132 | Venipede | $6.99 | |
| 122 | Golett | $6.99 | |
| 154 | Rufflet | $6.99 | |
| 142 | Pawniard | $6.60 | |
| 128 | Throh | $6.37 | |
| 130 | Crustle | $6.35 | |
| 139 | Klink | $6.33 | |
| 149 | Tranquill | $6.07 | |
| 124 | Drilbur | $6.02 | |
| 121 | Beheeyem | $5.68 | |
| 140 | Klang | $5.00 | |
| 093 | Maractus | $4.84 | Lowest-value IR |
Pool average: $21.06 USD. Pool median: $15.00 USD. Seismitoad alone lifts the average noticeably. The median IR pull ($15) is more representative of what most openers will experience — still strong value compared to most sets.
Double Rares (★★ ex) — within #001–086
6 ex cards in the base set numbered alongside commons and uncommons. These appear in the standard card slots, not the premium hit slot. All are priced at approximately $1.05–$1.54 USD — low individual value but a consistent pack filler.
| # | Card | Price (USD) |
|---|---|---|
| 067 | Genesect ex | $1.54 |
| 003 | Serperior ex | $1.33 |
| 034 | Zekrom ex | $1.25 |
| 046 | Excadrill ex | $1.17 |
| 028 | Kyurem ex | $1.08 |
| 044 | Meloetta ex | $1.05 |
Pool average: $1.24 USD. These are treated as part of the residual rare pool in the EV model rather than a dedicated hit slot, consistent with how they appear in the set.
Chase Cards: Top 10 by Value
Black Bolt's top 10 is dominated by the BWR tier and a mix of SIRs and surprisingly valuable IRs. Seismitoad (#105) at $220 as the 4th most valuable card in the set — an IR ahead of most SIRs — is the defining quirk of this set's value landscape. Several of the top 10 by price are IR cards, which is extremely unusual.
Expected Value Per Pack
Using current PriceCharting market prices weighted by community pull rate data, here is where the expected value of each Black Bolt pack comes from:
| Component | Pull Rate | Pool Avg (USD) | EV Contribution |
|---|---|---|---|
| Bulk (commons + uncommons) | 100% | $0.80 | $0.80 |
| Reverse Holo slot | 100% | $1.60 | $1.60 |
| Standard Rare / Double Rare (residual) | 76.1% | $0.66 | $0.50 |
| Illustration Rare (★ IR) | 16.7% | $21.06 | $3.52 |
| Ultra Rare (#156–163) | 5.9% | $2.96 | $0.17 |
| SIR (#164–170) | 1.25% | $76.23 | $0.95 |
| BWR (#171–172) ★ estimated | ~0.056% | $553.74 | $0.31 |
Key observations from this table:
- IRs contribute the most EV of any hit slot at $3.52 per pack (45% of total EV) — this is by far the highest IR contribution across any set analysed on this site, driven by the combination of a ~1 in 6 pull rate and a $21 pool average lifted by Seismitoad.
- BWR contribution ($0.31) is highly uncertain — the actual pull rate may be lower or higher than our ~1 in 1,789 assumption. If BWR pulls at 1 in 500 packs, the EV contribution jumps to ~$1.10, adding ~$0.80 per pack to EV. This is the largest uncertainty in this model.
- The UR tier is unusually weak ($0.17) — the full-art ex cards in #156–163 average only $2.96 each, which is one of the lowest UR pool averages of any set on this site. Hitting a UR in Black Bolt is a disappointment compared to hitting a UR in most other sets.
- SIR and BWR together contribute $1.26 (16% of EV) — a lower concentration than top-heavy sets. This makes Black Bolt moderate-variance: the IR pool provides a frequent floor, while BWR provides the occasional jackpot.
Monte Carlo: Win vs Loss Odds
The EV table above gives averages. What actually happens to individual openers is driven by variance. The charts below show results from 100,000 simulated openings, drawing from the actual card pool prices and pull rates — not averages. Note that the BWR pull rate is estimated; the true distribution may be more or less favourable than shown.
Each bar = $50 profit/loss range. ··· represents an empty gap in outcomes. The +$700–$900 spike represents pulling a BWR. 100,000 simulated openings. Prices from PriceCharting (USD), June 2026.
Win / Loss summary across all formats
| Scenario | Cost | Win % | Loss % | Median P/L | P5 (bad luck) | P95 (good luck) | Avg Return |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Pack — market (~$13.00) | $13 | 11.3% | 88.7% | −$10 | −$10 | +$15 | 0.61× |
| Bundle — market (~$70.30) | $70.3 | 13.9% | 86.1% | −$37 | −$52 | +$33 | 0.67× |
| Box — at break-even (~$282.83) | $282.83 | 33.1% | 66.9% | −$38 | −$126 | +$243 | 1.0× |
P5 = the outcome in the worst 5% of openings. P95 = the outcome in the best 5%. Win = profit > $0. Simulation: 100,000 runs, seed 42.
What these numbers mean in practice:
- Opening a single pack at market ($13) is very high risk — 88.7% of the time you lose money. The tight P5/P95 range (−$10 to +$15) reflects that single packs are either a common IR pull (small win) or nothing special (loss to pack cost).
- At break-even box cost (~$282.83), you still lose 66.9% of the time — the median outcome is −$38. This shows that variance is high enough that even a mathematically neutral opening has a likely-loss median. You need to hit at least one SIR or the rare BWR to pull ahead in a 36-pack opening.
- The P95 upside for a box at break-even (+$243) is driven by SIR and BWR pulls. The cluster of very high outcomes visible in the histogram represents the small fraction of 36-pack openings that contain at least one BWR card.
The Break-Even Price
If the expected value per pack is $7.86 USD, the break-even prices for each product format are:
Singapore context: If retail packs are available at approximately SGD $6.50 each (USD ~$5.08), that is well below the break-even pack price of $7.86. At retail, packs, bundles, and boxes would all be positive expected value. The challenge is that Black Bolt, as a relatively new and hyped set, is often sold at or above secondary market prices in Singapore stores and online platforms.
BWR uncertainty: The assumed BWR pull rate (~1 in 1,789) is the single largest source of model uncertainty. If the actual rate is closer to 1 in 1,000 packs, the EV per pack rises by roughly $0.25; if the actual rate is closer to 1 in 3,000 packs, EV falls by roughly $0.20. As more community opening data accumulates, this estimate will be refined.
Sensitivity to SIR and BWR price changes
| SIR Price Scenario | EV per Pack | Break-even Bundle (USD) | Break-even Box (USD) |
|---|---|---|---|
| Current prices (June 2026) | $7.86 | ~$47.14 | ~$282.83 |
| SIRs −25% | ~$7.62 | ~$45.73 | ~$274.41 |
| SIRs −50% | ~$7.39 | ~$44.31 | ~$265.86 |
| SIRs −75% | ~$7.15 | ~$42.89 | ~$257.31 |
SIR prices contribute only $0.95 (12.1%) of the total $7.86 EV per pack, so even a 75% SIR price collapse drops EV by only $0.71. The IR pool — especially Seismitoad — is a more important driver of EV stability. If Seismitoad (#105) falls 50%, the IR pool average drops sharply, reducing EV by roughly $0.27 per pack.
What You Should Actually Do
If you want a specific card
Buy the single. Use the tcgTalk price comparison to find the best current Singapore price. For a BWR at ~$554, opening packs to find one is not realistic — at the estimated ~1 in 1,789 pull rate, the expected product cost is over 1,700 packs or well over $20,000 at market pack price. For Seismitoad IR at $220, you need to open approximately 6 packs on average to see an IR, but only 1 in 67 IRs will be Seismitoad — so you would expect to open hundreds of packs on average to pull one. At $13 per pack, that is thousands of dollars in product versus buying the single at $220.
If you want to open packs
Wait for a price closer to retail (~SGD $6.50 per pack, USD ~$5.08) before opening. At market prices ($13 per pack), you are paying well over the break-even rate, and only 11.3% of single packs will return a profit. The bundle (6 packs at $70.3) is not meaningfully better at market — a 13.9% win rate. The large IR pool means you will almost always pull something — Seismitoad or Haxorus being the names to watch for.
Check current bundle prices on Carousell or SNKRDUNK. Bundles closer to $47.14 (break-even) are worth opening if you enjoy the experience.
If you are watching the BWR market
Victini and Zekrom ex BWR are both new to the market and priced near $554 with limited price history. These are the highest-risk cards in the set — as community opening data accumulates and the actual pull rate becomes clear, prices may adjust significantly. A confirmed pull rate much higher than 1 in 1,789 would pressure prices downward; a confirmed rate lower would support higher prices. Treat BWR singles as speculative and monitor the community pull data threads closely.
If you already have Black Bolt cards to sell
Seismitoad IR (#105) at $220 is the surprising winner here. If you pulled one and are considering selling, art-driven prices are more volatile than competitive card prices — collector sentiment can shift quickly. The early window after set release tends to have stronger demand for standout art cards. BWR cards near $554 are likely near peak early-release hype; prices for newly introduced rarity cards historically soften after the initial wave settles.
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Frequently Asked Questions
Is it worth opening Black Bolt packs?
At market prices (~$13 per pack), no — EV is ~$7.86 per pack (0.61× return). At retail (~SGD $6.50/pack, USD ~$5.08), opening is positive EV. The large IR pool means you will almost always pull something, but the high market premium makes most formats a clear loss.
What are the most expensive Black Bolt cards?
Victini BWR (#171) at approximately USD $567 (~SGD $726) and Zekrom ex BWR (#172) at approximately USD $540 (~SGD $691). Zekrom ex SIR (#166) is third at USD $250 (~SGD $320). Unusually, Seismitoad IR (#105) at USD $220 ranks fourth — a collector favourite whose artwork commands anomalously high pricing for the IR tier.
How many Black White Rares are in Black Bolt?
Two — Victini (#171) and Zekrom ex (#172). These are the first BWR cards printed in a Western Pokémon TCG set since the original Black & White era. The companion set White Flare contains its own BWR cards with the White version counterparts.
What is the pull rate for the Black White Rare?
Unknown from direct data — zero BWRs were recorded in 750 tracked packs. This guide estimates approximately 1 in 1,789 packs based on the lowest Mega Hyper Rare rate observed in comparable sets (Perfect Order: 0.000559). As more community opening data becomes available, this estimate will be updated.
How does Black Bolt compare to White Flare for pack opening?
Both sets share the same rarity structure, including the new BWR tier. This EV analysis covers Black Bolt only; White Flare has a different card pool and its own separate price landscape. The fundamental opening dynamics — large IR pool, low UR values, high market pack premium — are likely to be similar. A White Flare EV guide will be published separately.
Is Seismitoad really worth $220 as an IR card?
At time of writing, yes — PriceCharting market data shows Seismitoad (#105) at USD $219.85. The price is entirely art-driven: the Black Bolt IR artwork is considered among the most appealing in the set by collectors. Art-demand prices can be more volatile than competitive prices, so verify the current price before using it in buying or selling decisions.
Disclaimer: All card prices are from PriceCharting market data (USD) as of June 2026 and are indicative of current secondary market rates — they will change. SGD equivalents use an approximate 1.28 exchange rate (June 2026). BWR pull rate is an estimate based on community data from comparable sets; zero BWRs were recorded in 750 tracked Black Bolt pack openings. All other pull rates are from community aggregate opening data; The Pokémon Company does not publish official pull rates. Monte Carlo results use 100,000 simulated openings, seed 42. This is not financial advice. Verify current prices on tcgTalk or Carousell before making any buying or selling decisions.