Card prices are sourced from PriceCharting market data (USD). SGD equivalents use an approximate 1.28 exchange rate. Prices reflect current secondary market rates and will change as the set ages.
The Short Answer
At Singapore retail prices, all three Chaos Rising formats are close to break-even but now slightly negative expected value (~0.94–0.95×) after card prices softened this month. At secondary-market prices they are worse: the booster box at market (~$194.8) now sits well above the break-even price (~$173), so box opening at market is clearly negative (0.89×). Individual packs and bundles at market are the poorest value of all.
| Product | Retail Price (USD) | Market Price (USD) | Expected Card Value | Return at Retail | Verdict |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Booster Pack | ~$5.08 | ~$6.42 | $4.81 | 0.94× | ~Break-even at retail. −EV at market. |
| Booster Bundle (6 packs) | ~$30.48 | ~$35.84 | $28.83 | 0.94× | ~Break-even at retail. −EV at market. |
| ~Break-even bundle | ~$28.83 USD (SGD ~$36.90) | $28.83 | 1.0× | Expected value equals cost. | |
| Booster Box (36 packs) | ~$182.88 | ~$194.8 | $173 | 0.95× | ~Break-even at retail. −EV at market. |
| ~Break-even box | ~$173 USD (SGD ~$221) | $173 | 1.0× | Expected value equals cost. | |
The market box, explained: The booster box market price ($194.8) now sits well above the mathematical break-even point ($173). Last cycle the box traded near break-even and was close to a coin-flip opening; this month card prices have softened further while the sealed box price held firm, so the box is now clearly negative EV at market (0.89× expected return). The median outcome is a loss (−$41 at market), because most of the EV is concentrated in SIR and Hyper Rare pulls that require luck.
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Interactive EV Calculator
Before you buy, stress-test the maths yourself: pick a sealed product, choose the price you'd actually pay, set a “sift floor” so worthless bulk counts as $0, and edit any pull-rate assumption. Every change re-runs a live Monte Carlo simulation in your browser and updates the expected value, break-even price, ROI and the profit/loss distribution.
Odds aren't officially published — edit any assumption and the whole model re-runs. Values are auto-normalised.
| Tier | Exp. copies | Value |
|---|---|---|
| Standard Rare (★) | 21.42 | $22.49 |
| Special Illustration Rare (★★ SIR) | 0.35 | $21.60 |
| Illustration Rare (★ IR) | 4.02 | $20.32 |
| Ultra Rare (★★) | 3.01 | $10.51 |
| Double Rare (★★ ex) | 7.17 | $7.36 |
| Mega Hyper Rare (◇) | 0.03 | $4.38 |
| Bulk + reverse holo | — | $86.40 |
Live Monte Carlo simulation in your browser. Card prices: PriceCharting (USD), updated 2026-09-02. Pull rates are community-estimated from published opening data and fully editable above — treat every figure as a planning estimate, not a guarantee. SGD shown at ~S$1.28/USD.
Card Prices by Rarity
Chaos Rising (ME04) has six rarity tiers above common, with 122 total cards. The set is more compact than Ascended Heroes — only 6 SIRs and 1 Mega Hyper Rare — which concentrates value into fewer cards.
Mega Hyper Rare (◇) — #122
One card. The rarest printing in the set — golden full-art treatment of Mega Greninja ex. Estimated pull rate approximately 1 in 1,260 packs.
| # | Card | Price (USD) | Price (SGD est.) |
|---|---|---|---|
| 122 | Mega Greninja ex | $169.00 | ~$216 |
Special Illustration Rares (★★ SIR) — #116–121
6 cards. The main chase tier. Estimated pull rate approximately 1 in 101 packs. Price range: $23–$193.
| # | Card | Price (USD) | Price (SGD est.) |
|---|---|---|---|
| 116 | Mega Greninja ex | $192.62 | ~$247 |
| 119 | Cinccino ex | $53.42 | ~$68.38 |
| 118 | Mega Dragalge ex | $34.57 | ~$44.25 |
| 117 | Mega Floette ex | $26.87 | ~$34.39 |
| 120 | AZ's Tranquility | $26.55 | ~$33.98 |
| 121 | Roxie's Performance | $23.00 | ~$29.44 |
Pool average: $59.51 USD. Pool median: $30.72 USD. The mean is heavily skewed by Mega Greninja ex SIR. If you pull an SIR, you are most likely to get something near the median, not the average.
Illustration Rares (★ IR) — #87–97
11 cards. Expected roughly once every 9 packs. A compact IR pool compared to standard SV-era sets — the standouts are the Mega Evolution starters.
| # | Card | Price (USD) | Notes |
|---|---|---|---|
| 88 | Froakie | $11.00 | Chase IR — fan favourite |
| 91 | Xerneas | $8.13 | |
| 89 | Frogadier | $7.05 | |
| 90 | Ampharos | $6.43 | |
| 87 | Chespin | $4.59 | |
| 96 | Tauros | $3.98 | |
| 94 | Metang | $3.25 | |
| 93 | Crobat | $3.17 | |
| 92 | Claydol | $2.81 | |
| 95 | Sliggoo | $2.79 | |
| 97 | Watchog | $2.25 |
Pool average: $5.04 USD. Pool median: $3.98 USD. No extreme outlier in this pool — the top IRs (Froakie, Frogadier, Xerneas, Ampharos) are tightly clustered. Pulling any of them is a decent outcome.
Ultra Rares (★★) — #98–115
18 cards. Full-art ex cards and trainer cards. Expected roughly once per 12 packs (8.3%). Most are worth a few dollars, with Mega Greninja ex (#100) as the standout at $10.00.
| # | Card | Price (USD) |
|---|---|---|
| 100 | Mega Greninja ex | $10.00 |
| 105 | Cinccino ex | $4.50 |
| 114 | Surfing Beach | $4.38 |
| 109 | Jumbo Ice Cream | $4.35 |
| 113 | Special Red Card | $4.24 |
| 104 | Mega Dragalge ex | $3.75 |
| 98 | Beedrill ex | $3.39 |
| 101 | Mega Floette ex | $3.27 |
| 99 | Mega Pyroar ex | $3.19 |
| 111 | Prism Tower | $3.00 |
| 112 | Roxie's Performance | $2.99 |
| 107 | Emma | $2.75 |
| 103 | Cobalion ex | $2.60 |
| 106 | AZ's Tranquility | $2.28 |
| 110 | Philippe | $2.24 |
| 108 | Energy Retrieval | $2.21 |
| 115 | Tool Scrapper | $2.00 |
| 102 | Gourgeist ex | $2.00 |
Pool average: $3.51 USD. Pulling an Ultra Rare is a decent mid-tier outcome.
Double Rares (★★ ex) — #3, 15, 22, 35, 41, 48, 55, 64, 65, 73
10 ex and Mega ex cards in the base set. Expected roughly once every 5 packs (20%). Most are worth $0.87–$1.23, with Mega Greninja ex (#22) at $1.25 as the notable exception.
| # | Card | Price (USD) |
|---|---|---|
| 22 | Mega Greninja ex | $1.25 |
| 3 | Beedrill ex | $1.23 |
| 48 | Mega Gallade ex | $1.04 |
| 35 | Mega Floette ex | $1.02 |
| 73 | Cinccino ex | $1.01 |
| 41 | Gourgeist ex | $0.99 |
| 15 | Mega Pyroar ex | $0.99 |
| 55 | Krookodile ex | $0.95 |
| 65 | Mega Dragalge ex | $0.91 |
| 64 | Cobalion ex | $0.87 |
Pool average: $1.03 USD. These are the bread-and-butter hits — consistent but low in individual value.
Chase Cards: Top 10 by Value
Mega Greninja ex dominates the value landscape at every rarity — SIR (#116), Hyper Rare (#122), Ultra Rare (#100), and Double Rare (#22) versions all exist. The SIR and Hyper Rare together account for the majority of the set's expected value per pack.
Expected Value Per Pack
Using current PriceCharting market prices weighted by pull rates from Mega Evolution series community opening data, here is where the expected value of each pack comes from:
| Component | Pull Rate | Pool Avg (USD) | EV Contribution |
|---|---|---|---|
| Bulk (commons + uncommons) | 100% | $0.80 | $0.80 |
| Reverse Holo slot | 100% | $1.60 | $1.60 |
| Standard Rare (★) | 59.5% | $1.05 | $0.62 |
| Double Rare (★★ ex) | 20.0% | $1.03 | $0.21 |
| Illustration Rare (★ IR) | 11.1% | $5.04 | $0.56 |
| Ultra Rare (#98–115) | 8.3% | $3.51 | $0.29 |
| SIR (#116–121) | 0.99% | $59.51 | $0.59 |
| Mega Hyper Rare (#122) | 0.079% | $169.00 | $0.13 |
Key observations from this table:
- IRs contribute $0.56 EV — at 11% pull rate with a $5.04 average, they are the most consistent value slot, hitting far more often than SIRs across an opening session.
- SIR and Hyper Rare together contribute $0.72 of the $4.81 EV — meaningful but not the majority. Chaos Rising's EV is fairly evenly distributed, which keeps outcome variance lower than top-heavy sets.
- Ultra Rares add $0.29 EV — the $10.00 Mega Greninja ex UR lifts the whole pool average.
Monte Carlo: Win vs Loss Odds
The EV table above gives averages. What actually happens to individual openers is driven by variance. The charts below show results from 100,000 simulated openings, drawing from the actual card pool prices and pull rates — not averages.
Each bar = $50 profit/loss range. ··· represents an empty gap in outcomes. 100,000 simulated openings. Prices from PriceCharting (USD), September 2026.
Win / Loss summary across all formats
| Scenario | Cost | Win % | Loss % | Median P/L | P5 (bad luck) | P95 (good luck) | Avg Return |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Pack — retail (~$5.08) | $5.08 | 16.7% | 83.3% | −$2 | −$2 | +$4 | 0.94× |
| Bundle — retail (~$30.48) | $30.48 | 16.6% | 83.4% | −$7 | −$10 | +$16 | 0.94× |
| Box — retail (~$182.88) | $182.88 | 18.9% | 81.1% | −$30 | −$49 | +$151 | 0.95× |
| Pack — market (~$6.42) | $6.42 | 8.4% | 91.6% | −$3 | −$3 | +$2 | 0.75× |
| Bundle — market (~$35.84) | $35.84 | 8.3% | 91.7% | −$12 | −$15 | +$11 | 0.81× |
| Box — market (~$194.80) | $194.8 | 14% | 86% | −$41 | −$61 | +$139 | 0.89× |
P5 = the outcome in the worst 5% of openings. P95 = the outcome in the best 5%. Win = profit > $0. Simulation: 100,000 runs, seed 42.
What these numbers mean in practice:
- The retail box at 18.9% win rate has the best opening odds in this set, but with card prices softened it now runs a median loss of −$30 and only 0.95× expected return — close to break-even, not the winning bet it was last cycle.
- The retail bundle at 16.6% win rate is a losing proposition more often than not — acceptable only if you value the smaller quantity.
- The market box (14% win rate) is clearly negative (0.89×) with a deep negative median (−$41). Most box openers at market will lose — you need to hit at least one big SIR to pull ahead.
- Market individual packs are poor value at 0.75× return and 91.6% loss rate. The per-pack premium (~$6.42 vs break-even $4.81) is too high.
The Break-Even Price
If the expected value per pack is $4.81 USD, the break-even prices for each product format are:
Singapore context: Retail packs in Singapore cost approximately SGD $6.50 each (USD ~$5.08), just above the break-even pack price of $4.81. Retail boxes (USD ~$182.88) also sit slightly above break-even ($173). At Singapore retail, all three formats are now marginally negative expected value — close enough to break-even that they are still the cheapest way to open, but no longer a profit.
Sensitivity to SIR price changes
| SIR Price Scenario | EV per Pack | Break-even Bundle (USD) | Break-even Box (USD) |
|---|---|---|---|
| Current prices (September 2026) | $4.81 | ~$28.83 | ~$173 |
| SIRs −25% | ~$4.66 | ~$27.95 | ~$167.70 |
| SIRs −50% | ~$4.51 | ~$27.07 | ~$162.40 |
| SIRs −75% | ~$4.36 | ~$26.18 | ~$157.09 |
Because SIR contributes only about 12% of total EV, even a 75% SIR price crash drops EV only to ~$4.36 per pack. Retail boxes (~$182.88) would slip a little further underwater in that scenario, while the market box would fall well below break-even.
What You Should Actually Do
If you want a specific card
Buy the single. Use the tcgTalk price comparison to find the best current Singapore price. For the Mega Greninja ex SIR at $193, opening packs to find it is not realistic — the expected cost is roughly 606 packs (~1 in 101 packs × 1/6 SIRs) in product at market prices.
If you want to open packs
The retail box is the best format in this set: 18.9% win rate, median P/L of −$30, and 0.95× expected return — roughly break-even now that EV has softened. At market the box is clearly negative (0.89×) — no longer the near-break-even opportunity it was last cycle. Bundles at retail win only 16.6% of the time; individual packs are lowest value at any price.
Watch box prices on Carousell or SNKRDUNK: if the market box dips back below ~$173, secondary-market opening becomes worthwhile again. At today's ~$194.8 it is a clear loss on average.
If you are buying sealed for investment
Chaos Rising sealed at retail is roughly break-even to marginally negative EV on card value alone — the case for holding sealed rests on future appreciation, not the current pull value. The lower hype versus Ascended Heroes means sealed prices have not inflated as aggressively, which is both a risk (slower appreciation) and an opportunity (lower entry cost). Booster boxes are the preferred format. Avoid paying significantly above break-even (~$173 USD) for boxes at market.
If you already have cards to sell
The Mega Greninja ex SIR at $193 is the set's crown jewel. Prices for SIRs in new sets typically soften 25–40% within 3 months of release as the hype peak passes — and this set is already drifting down. If you pulled one and are considering selling, acting sooner rather than later tends to yield better prices. The IR cards (Froakie, Frogadier, Xerneas, Ampharos) are more stable given their moderate price points.
Frequently Asked Questions
Is it worth opening Chaos Rising packs?
At Singapore retail (~SGD $6.50/pack), it is close to break-even but slightly negative — EV is ~$6.16 SGD per pack (~0.94–0.95× return). At secondary-market prices every format is worse: the box at market ($194.8 USD) is now clearly negative (0.89×). The median outcome is a loss in all formats because SIR and Hyper Rare drive most of the upside.
What is the most expensive Chaos Rising card?
Mega Greninja ex SIR (#116) at approximately USD $192.62 (~SGD $247). The Mega Hyper Rare Mega Greninja ex (#122) at USD $169 (~SGD $216) is the second most valuable card in the set.
How many SIRs are in Chaos Rising?
6 Special Illustration Rares (#116–121) and 1 Mega Hyper Rare (#122), for 7 premium rarity cards above the standard IR tier. This is a notably smaller SIR pool than Ascended Heroes (19 SIRs + 2 Hyper Rares).
What is the cheapest SIR in Chaos Rising?
Roxie's Performance (#121) at USD $23 (~SGD $29.44) is the current lowest-value SIR. AZ's Tranquility (#120) at USD $26.55 is close behind.
Are the IR cards in Chaos Rising worth pulling?
Yes — the 11 IRs average $5.04 USD with a tight range. The Froakie, Frogadier, Xerneas, and Ampharos IRs are the strongest pulls. Unlike some sets where IRs are mostly filler, Chaos Rising's IR pool has solid consistent value.
How does Chaos Rising compare to Ascended Heroes for pack opening?
Chaos Rising has a lower EV per pack ($4.81) but also lower product prices. The Chaos Rising SIR pool is concentrated (6 cards, top card ~$193) versus Ascended Heroes' much wider spread. Overall, Chaos Rising is lower variance — fewer jackpot wins, but also fewer catastrophic bust sessions.
Disclaimer: All card prices are from PriceCharting market data (USD) as of September 2026 and are indicative of current secondary market rates — they will change. SGD equivalents use an approximate 1.28 exchange rate. Pull rates are community estimates from Mega Evolution series aggregate opening data; The Pokemon Company does not publish official pull rates. Monte Carlo results use 100,000 simulated openings, seed 42. This is not financial advice. Verify current prices on tcgTalk or Carousell before making any buying or selling decisions.