Card prices are sourced from PriceCharting market data (USD). SGD equivalents use an approximate 1.28 exchange rate. Prices reflect current secondary market rates and will change as the set ages.
The Short Answer
Chaos Rising has an unusual pricing dynamic: the booster box at market price (~USD $236) is actually below the break-even price (~USD $254), making box opening positive expected value even at secondary market rates. Individual packs and bundles at market price are negative EV. At Singapore retail prices, all three formats are positive EV.
| Product | Retail Price (USD) | Market Price (USD) | Expected Card Value | Return at Retail | Verdict |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Booster Pack | ~$5.08 | ~$9.94 | $7.05 | 1.39× | +EV at retail. −EV at market. |
| Booster Bundle (6 packs) | ~$30.48 | ~$49.22 | $42.30 | 1.39× | +EV at retail. −EV at market. |
| ~Break-even bundle | ~$42.30 USD (SGD ~$54) | $42.30 | 1.0× | Expected value equals cost. | |
| Booster Box (36 packs) | ~$182.88 | ~$236.36 | $253.82 | 1.39× | +EV at retail AND market. |
| ~Break-even box | ~$253.82 USD (SGD ~$325) | $253.82 | 1.0× | Expected value equals cost. | |
The box anomaly explained: The booster box market price ($236) sits below the mathematical break-even point ($254) because box demand is relatively moderate for this set compared to Ascended Heroes. This means opening a full box at market price has 1.06× expected return on the cards. However, the median outcome is still a loss (−$24 at market), because most of the EV is concentrated in SIR and Hyper Rare pulls that require luck.
Card Prices by Rarity
Chaos Rising (ME04) has six rarity tiers above common, with 122 total cards. The set is more compact than Ascended Heroes — only 6 SIRs and 1 Mega Hyper Rare — which concentrates value into fewer cards.
Mega Hyper Rare (◇) — #122
One card. The rarest printing in the set — golden full-art treatment of Mega Greninja ex. Estimated pull rate approximately 1 in 1,260 packs.
| # | Card | Price (USD) | Price (SGD est.) |
|---|---|---|---|
| 122 | Mega Greninja ex | $317.89 | ~$407 |
Special Illustration Rares (★★ SIR) — #116–121
6 cards. The main chase tier. Estimated pull rate approximately 1 in 101 packs. Price range: $38–$452.
| # | Card | Price (USD) | Price (SGD est.) |
|---|---|---|---|
| 116 | Mega Greninja ex | $451.64 | ~$578 |
| 119 | Cinccino ex | $91.88 | ~$118 |
| 118 | Mega Dragalge ex | $72.09 | ~$92 |
| 117 | Mega Floette ex | $64.13 | ~$82 |
| 120 | AZ's Tranquility | $44.42 | ~$57 |
| 121 | Roxie's Performance | $38.49 | ~$49 |
Pool average: $127.11 USD. Pool median: $68.11 USD. The mean is heavily skewed by Mega Greninja ex SIR. If you pull an SIR, you are most likely to get something worth $38–$92, not the $127 average.
Illustration Rares (★ IR) — #87–97
11 cards. Expected roughly once every 9 packs. A compact IR pool compared to standard SV-era sets — the standouts are the Mega Evolution starters.
| # | Card | Price (USD) | Notes |
|---|---|---|---|
| 88 | Froakie | $22.48 | Chase IR — fan favourite |
| 89 | Frogadier | $22.25 | |
| 91 | Xerneas | $21.59 | |
| 90 | Ampharos | $19.46 | |
| 96 | Tauros | $11.80 | |
| 87 | Chespin | $10.48 | |
| 93 | Crobat | $8.77 | |
| 95 | Sliggoo | $7.99 | |
| 94 | Metang | $7.22 | |
| 92 | Claydol | $6.86 | |
| 97 | Watchog | $4.18 |
Pool average: $13.01 USD. Pool median: $10.48 USD. No extreme outlier in this pool — the top 4 IRs are tightly clustered between $19–$23. Pulling any of them is a decent outcome.
Ultra Rares (★★) — #98–115
18 cards. Full-art ex cards and trainer cards. Expected roughly once per 12 packs (8.3%). Most are worth $3.42–$11, with Mega Greninja ex (#100) as the standout at $24.35.
| # | Card | Price (USD) |
|---|---|---|
| 100 | Mega Greninja ex | $24.35 |
| 113 | Special Red Card | $11.00 |
| 114 | Surfing Beach | $9.37 |
| 101 | Mega Floette ex | $9.50 |
| 104 | Mega Dragalge ex | $9.02 |
| 98 | Beedrill ex | $7.99 |
| 105 | Cinccino ex | $6.31 |
| 112 | Roxie's Performance | $5.92 |
| 107 | Emma | $5.99 |
| 106 | AZ's Tranquility | $5.91 |
| 111 | Prism Tower | $5.50 |
| 109 | Jumbo Ice Cream | $5.34 |
| 99 | Mega Pyroar ex | $6.22 |
| 108 | Energy Retrieval | $4.25 |
| 115 | Tool Scrapper | $4.15 |
| 110 | Philippe | $4.06 |
| 103 | Cobalion ex | $3.58 |
| 102 | Gourgeist ex | $3.42 |
Pool average: $7.33 USD. Pulling an Ultra Rare is a decent mid-tier outcome — better than the UR tier in Ascended Heroes, which averaged $3.61.
Double Rares (★★ ex) — #3, 15, 22, 35, 41, 48, 55, 64, 65, 73
10 ex and Mega ex cards in the base set. Expected roughly once every 5 packs (20%). Most are worth $1.23–$2.12, with Mega Greninja ex (#22) at $4.51 as the notable exception.
| # | Card | Price (USD) |
|---|---|---|
| 22 | Mega Greninja ex | $4.51 |
| 73 | Cinccino ex | $2.12 |
| 3 | Beedrill ex | $1.90 |
| 65 | Mega Dragalge ex | $1.84 |
| 35 | Mega Floette ex | $1.80 |
| 41 | Gourgeist ex | $1.75 |
| 55 | Krookodile ex | $1.52 |
| 48 | Mega Gallade ex | $1.51 |
| 64 | Cobalion ex | $1.48 |
| 15 | Mega Pyroar ex | $1.23 |
Pool average: $1.97 USD. These are the bread-and-butter hits — consistent but low in individual value.
Chase Cards: Top 10 by Value
Mega Greninja ex dominates the value landscape at every rarity — SIR (#116), Hyper Rare (#122), Ultra Rare (#100), and Double Rare (#22) versions all exist. The SIR and Hyper Rare together account for the majority of the set's expected value per pack.
Expected Value Per Pack
Using current PriceCharting market prices weighted by pull rates from Mega Evolution series community opening data, here is where the expected value of each pack comes from:
| Component | Pull Rate | Pool Avg (USD) | EV Contribution |
|---|---|---|---|
| Bulk (commons + uncommons) | 100% | $0.80 | $0.80 |
| Reverse Holo slot | 100% | $1.60 | $1.60 |
| Standard Rare (★) | 59.5% | $1.05 | $0.62 |
| Double Rare (★★ ex) | 20.0% | $1.97 | $0.39 |
| Illustration Rare (★ IR) | 11.1% | $13.01 | $1.45 |
| Ultra Rare (#98–115) | 8.3% | $7.33 | $0.61 |
| SIR (#116–121) | 0.99% | $127.11 | $1.26 |
| Mega Hyper Rare (#122) | 0.079% | $317.89 | $0.25 |
Key observations from this table:
- SIR and Hyper Rare together contribute only $1.51 of the $7.05 EV (21%) — much less than Ascended Heroes where they drove 44%. Chaos Rising's EV is more evenly distributed, making outcome variance lower.
- IRs contribute the most of any hit slot ($1.45) — at 11% pull rate with a $13 average, they are more consistent value than SIRs for most opening sessions.
- Ultra Rares punch above their weight at $0.61 EV — the $24 Mega Greninja ex UR lifts the whole pool average well above Ascended Heroes' UR tier.
Monte Carlo: Win vs Loss Odds
The EV table above gives averages. What actually happens to individual openers is driven by variance. The charts below show results from 100,000 simulated openings, drawing from the actual card pool prices and pull rates — not averages.
Each bar = $50 profit/loss range. ··· represents an empty gap in outcomes. 100,000 simulated openings. Prices from PriceCharting (USD), May 2026.
Win / Loss summary across all formats
| Scenario | Cost | Win % | Loss % | Median P/L | P5 (bad luck) | P95 (good luck) | Avg Return |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Pack — retail (~$5.08) | $5.08 | 22.6% | 77.4% | −$1 | −$2 | +$17 | 1.38× |
| Bundle — retail (~$30.48) | $30.48 | 49.6% | 50.4% | $0 | −$10 | +$47 | 1.37× |
| Box — retail (~$182.88) | $182.88 | 78.2% | 21.8% | +$30 | −$23 | +$441 | 1.37× |
| Pack — market (~$9.94) | $9.94 | 12.0% | 88.0% | −$6 | −$7 | +$12 | 0.71× |
| Bundle — market (~$49.22) | $49.22 | 15.6% | 84.4% | −$19 | −$29 | +$28 | 0.85× |
| Box — market (~$236.36) | $236.36 | 33.0% | 67.0% | −$24 | −$77 | +$386 | 1.06× |
P5 = the outcome in the worst 5% of openings. P95 = the outcome in the best 5%. Win = profit > $0. Simulation: 100,000 runs, seed 42.
What these numbers mean in practice:
- The retail bundle is nearly a coin flip at 49.6% win rate — the closest to neutral EV of any format in this set.
- The retail box at 78.2% win rate is among the best odds you can get opening Pokemon cards at the current card valuations.
- The market box (33% win rate) has a positive expected return (1.06×) but a negative median outcome (−$24). This means most box openers at market will still lose — you need to hit at least one SIR to pull ahead.
- Market individual packs are poor value at 0.71× return and 88% loss rate. The per-pack premium (~$9.94 vs break-even $7.05) is simply too high.
The Break-Even Price
If the expected value per pack is $7.05 USD, the break-even prices for each product format are:
Singapore context: Retail packs in Singapore cost approximately SGD $6.50 each (USD ~$5.08), comfortably below the break-even pack price of $7.05. Retail boxes (~SGD $234 / USD ~$182.88) are also well below break-even ($253.82). At Singapore retail, all three formats are positive expected value.
Sensitivity to SIR price changes
| SIR Price Scenario | EV per Pack | Break-even Bundle (USD) | Break-even Box (USD) |
|---|---|---|---|
| Current prices (May 2026) | $7.05 | ~$42.30 | ~$253.82 |
| SIRs −25% | ~$6.73 | ~$40.38 | ~$242.28 |
| SIRs −50% | ~$6.42 | ~$38.52 | ~$231.12 |
| SIRs −75% | ~$6.10 | ~$36.60 | ~$219.60 |
Because SIR contributes only 18% of total EV (vs 44% in Ascended Heroes), even a 75% SIR price crash drops EV only to $6.10 per pack. This would bring the break-even box to $219.60 — the market box (~$236) would then become negative EV. But retail boxes ($183) would remain positive EV even in a 75% SIR correction scenario.
What You Should Actually Do
If you want a specific card
Buy the single. Use the tcgTalk price comparison to find the best current Singapore price. For the Mega Greninja ex SIR at $452, opening packs to find it is not realistic — the expected cost is roughly 606 packs (~1 in 101 packs × 1/6 SIRs = 1 in 606 packs) at over $6,000 in product at market prices.
If you want to open packs
The retail box is the best format in this set: 78.2% win rate, median profit of +$30, and 1.37× expected return. Even at market, the box is technically positive EV (1.06×) — though the median outcome is still a loss due to variance. Bundles at retail are a coin-flip (49.6% win) — acceptable if you prefer smaller quantities. Individual packs are lowest value at any price.
If market boxes are available near or below $236, that is an unusual situation where secondary market opening is positive EV. Compare current box prices on Carousell or SNKRDUNK before buying.
If you are buying sealed for investment
Chaos Rising sealed at retail is positive EV. The lower hype versus Ascended Heroes means sealed prices have not inflated as aggressively, which is both a risk (slower appreciation) and an opportunity (lower entry cost). Booster boxes are the preferred format. Avoid paying significantly above break-even (~$254 USD) for boxes at market as investment.
If you already have cards to sell
The Mega Greninja ex SIR at $452 is the set's crown jewel. Prices for SIRs in new sets typically soften 25–40% within 3 months of release as the hype peak passes. If you pulled one and are considering selling, acting sooner rather than later tends to yield better prices for ultra-rare singles. The IR cards (Froakie, Frogadier, Xerneas, Ampharos) are more stable given their moderate price points.
Frequently Asked Questions
Is it worth opening Chaos Rising packs?
At Singapore retail (~SGD $6.50/pack), yes — EV is ~$9.02 SGD per pack (1.38× return). The box at market price ($236 USD) is also technically positive EV (1.06×). Individual packs and bundles at market are negative EV. The median outcome is a loss in all formats because SIR and Hyper Rare drives most of the upside.
What is the most expensive Chaos Rising card?
Mega Greninja ex SIR (#116) at approximately USD $451.64 (~SGD $578). The Mega Hyper Rare Mega Greninja ex (#122) at USD $317.89 (~SGD $407) is the second most valuable card in the set.
How many SIRs are in Chaos Rising?
6 Special Illustration Rares (#116–121) and 1 Mega Hyper Rare (#122), for 7 premium rarity cards above the standard IR tier. This is a notably smaller SIR pool than Ascended Heroes (19 SIRs + 2 Hyper Rares).
What is the cheapest SIR in Chaos Rising?
Roxie's Performance (#121) at USD $38.49 (~SGD $49) is the current lowest-value SIR. AZ's Tranquility (#120) at USD $44.42 is close behind.
Are the IR cards in Chaos Rising worth pulling?
Yes — the 11 IRs average $13.01 USD with a tight range ($4.18–$22.48). The Froakie, Frogadier, Xerneas, and Ampharos IRs at $19–$23 are strong pulls. Unlike some sets where IRs are mostly filler, Chaos Rising's IR pool has solid consistent value.
How does Chaos Rising compare to Ascended Heroes for pack opening?
Chaos Rising has a lower EV per pack ($7.05 vs $11.10) but also lower product prices. The box at market is positive EV for Chaos Rising but negative for Ascended Heroes. The Chaos Rising SIR pool is concentrated (6 cards, top card ~$452) versus Ascended Heroes' spread (19 cards, top card ~$1,400). Overall, Chaos Rising is lower variance — fewer jackpot wins, but also fewer catastrophic bust sessions.
Disclaimer: All card prices are from PriceCharting market data (USD) as of May 2026 and are indicative of current secondary market rates — they will change. SGD equivalents use an approximate 1.28 exchange rate (May 2026). Pull rates are community estimates from Mega Evolution series aggregate opening data; The Pokemon Company does not publish official pull rates. Monte Carlo results use 100,000 simulated openings, seed 42. This is not financial advice. Verify current prices on tcgTalk or Carousell before making any buying or selling decisions.