What Is Chaos Rising?
Chaos Rising is the English-language Pokémon TCG set releasing on 22 May 2026, based on the Japanese set Ninja Spinner (M4). It arrives as part of the Pokémon Legends: Z-A era, reintroducing Mega Evolutions to the Pokémon TCG — and Mega Greninja ex is the undisputed headliner.
The set contains 83 base cards with secret rares extending the numbering up to 120/083. The rarity ladder runs from standard ex through Illustration Rares (IR), Ultra Rares (UR), Special Illustration Rares (SIR), and a Master Hyper Rare (MHR) — the alternate-art Mega Greninja ex at 120/083, sitting at the very top of the chase hierarchy.
Beyond Greninja, Chaos Rising includes Mega Floette ex, Mega Dragalge ex, and Mega Cinccino ex among its Pokémon Legends: Z-A roster. Competitively, the set introduces Special Red Card — already running in roughly half of all Japanese tournament decks — and Cinccino ex, whose Smooth Coat coin-flip ability has players and collectors alike paying attention.
Box Contents & Pack Structure
Chaos Rising is available in three primary retail formats:
- Booster Box — 36 packs per box, 10 cards per pack
- Booster Bundle — 6 packs per bundle, 10 cards per pack
- Single packs — 10 cards per pack
Each 10-card pack contains commons, uncommons, a reverse holo slot, and a rare slot. The rare slot determines your hit — it can be a regular Rare (R), an ex, an IR, UR, SIR, or MHR. Not every pack guarantees an ex. In our 168-pack sample, 97 packs (57.7%) yielded only a regular Rare in the rare slot.
Sample breakdown
The 268 packs across both samples were opened as follows:
- Primary sample (168 packs): 3 booster boxes (108 packs), 3 booster bundles (18 packs), 42 loose single packs
- Additional sample (100 packs): Booster bundles only — opened by PurpleCliff; notable pulls detailed below the main table
Pull Rate Data: 268 Packs
This section covers two separate openings for a combined total of 268 packs. The main pull rate table reflects the primary 168-pack sample (pre-release, mix of booster boxes, bundles, and loose packs). PurpleCliff's additional 100-pack booster bundle sample is detailed below the table. Regular Rare cards in the rare slot are not individually listed in the primary sample — their count is derived by subtraction from the total.
Primary sample — 168 packs (booster boxes, bundles & loose packs)
| Rarity | Pulls | % per Pack | Per 36-Pack Box |
|---|---|---|---|
| Standard ex | 39 | 23.2% | ~8 |
| IR (Illustration Rare) | 18 | 10.7% | ~4 |
| Ex full art (UR ex) | 6 | 3.6% | ~1 |
| Full art non-ex (UR trainer / energy) | 5 | 3.0% | ~1 |
| SIR (Special Illustration Rare) | 1 | 0.6% | ~0.2 (≈1 in 5 boxes) |
| Named UR trainer (Tool Scraper, Special Red Card) | 2 | 1.2% | ~0.4 |
| Regular Rare only (no ex or above) | 97 | 57.7% | ~21 |
| Total | 168 | 100% | 36 |
Named notable pulls
- IRs identified: Claydol IR, Froakie IR (connected triptych), Tauros IR
- Ex full arts: Mega Greninja ex (full art version) confirmed; 5 other ex full arts not individually recorded
- SIR: 1 pulled (specific card not recorded at time of opening)
- UR trainers: Tool Scraper, Special Red Card (106/083)
- MHR (120/083): 0 pulled across all 168 packs
PurpleCliff — 100 Booster Bundle Packs (Additional Sample)
A second sample of 100 packs was opened from booster bundles exclusively. Booster bundles carry higher variance than booster boxes — there is no guaranteed hit distribution per bundle, so runs of blank packs are more common. Confirmed notable pulls from this opening:
- Illustration Rares: Froakie IR ×3, Chespin IR ×2, Prism Tower IR ×2 (connected art, different angles), Matang IR ×1, Crobat IR ×1 — approximately 10–12 IRs total, consistent with the primary sample's ~10% per pack rate
- Ex full arts (UR ex): Mega Greninja ex (full art) ×1, Mega Dragalge ex (full art) ×1, 1 additional unidentified Mega ex full art
- Full art trainers / energies (UR): Special Red Card (gold UR) ×2, Gourgeist full art ×1, Prism Tower full art trainer ×1, Emma full art ×1
- SIR: Mega Dragalge ex SIR (116/083) ×1 — pulled during a 4-consecutive-pack hit run
- Standard ex (confirmed): Cobalion ex ×2, Cinccino ex ×3, plus additional ex cards across 100 packs
- MHR (120/083): 0
The opening showed a pronounced early streak — 3 IRs in approximately 4 packs — followed by a 6-pack dry stretch with no ex or above, illustrating the variance of booster bundle formats. The SIR landed during a pack train (4 consecutive hits). No MHR was pulled in 100 packs.
Key findings
- Hit rate: 42.3% of packs had an ex or better in the primary sample — fewer than half of all packs yield a notable pull
- IR cadence: approximately 1 IR per 9 packs, or 4 per box — confirmed across both samples
- Full art frequency: combined UR/SIR ex and trainer full arts appeared in ~8.3% of packs in the primary sample, or roughly 2–3 per box
- SIR rarity: 2 SIRs from 268 combined packs — approximately 1 per 134 packs (~1 in 3–4 boxes); still a small sample, treat as a rough estimate
- MHR (120/083): zero observed across all 268 packs; expected given its rarity tier
- Booster bundle variance: the 100-pack bundle sample showed wider swings (3 IRs in 4 packs; 6-pack dry runs) versus boxed product — consistent with bundle packs not having guaranteed hit distribution
Rarity Breakdown
| Rarity Tier | Description | Observed Rate | Expected Per Box |
|---|---|---|---|
| Regular Rare (R) | Non-ex rare Pokémon or trainer | 57.7% of packs | ~21 |
| Double Rare (ex) | Standard ex Pokémon | 23.2% of packs | ~8 |
| IR (Illustration Rare) | Full art non-ex Pokémon with illustrated background | 10.7% of packs | ~4 |
| UR ex (ex full art) | Full art ex with alternate illustration | 3.6% of packs | ~1 |
| UR trainer / energy | Full art trainer, supporter, or energy card | 3.0% of packs | ~1 |
| SIR (Special Illustration Rare) | Premium full art with elaborate illustrated background | 0.6% of packs | ~0.2 (≈1 in 5 boxes) |
| MHR (Master Hyper Rare) | Alternate-art Mega Greninja ex (120/083) | 0% observed* | <0.2 (rarer than SIR) |
*MHR rate not observed in this 168-pack sample. This is expected given its rarity. Estimate based on comparable sets.
The Chase Cards: Mega Greninja ex SIR & MHR Odds
Chaos Rising has a clear chase hierarchy driven almost entirely by Mega Greninja ex. The table below covers the most sought-after cards from the set with approximate pre-release market prices.
| Card | Rarity | Set Number | Market Price (USD) | Notes |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Mega Greninja ex | MHR | 120/083 | ~$496 | Rarest pull in the set; alternate full art version |
| Mega Greninja ex | SIR | 114/083 | ~$289 | Primary SIR; most sought-after accessible version of Greninja |
| Cinccino ex | SIR | 117/083 | ~$43 | Smooth Coat ability (coin-flip damage prevention); competitive and collector demand |
| Mega Dragalge ex | SIR | 116/083 | ~$25 | Striking Yasukuni artwork; strong visual appeal |
| Mega Floette ex | SIR | 115/083 | ~$23 | Pivotal to the Pokémon Legends: Z-A story |
| Roxie's Performance | SIR | 119/083 | ~$19 | Niche Poison lock mechanic; strong collector appeal |
| AZ's Tranquility | SIR | 118/083 | ~$18 | Playable Switch supporter; OKACHEKE artwork |
| Froakie | IR | 086/083 | ~$9 | Part 1 of 3-card connected art triptych leading to Greninja |
| Frogadier | IR | 087/083 | ~$6 | Part 2 of the connected art triptych |
| Xerneas | IR | 089/083 | ~$8 | YASHIRO Nanaco artwork; late-game attacker in Psychic decks |
| Beedrill ex | UR | 096/083 | ~$8 | Scaling Bee Rumble attack; Gen I collector interest |
| Special Red Card | UR | 106/083 | ~$1 | Most competitively played card in the set; buy as a single |
The Froakie–Frogadier–Greninja connected art triptych
One of the standout collector hooks in Chaos Rising is the connected art triptych spanning Froakie (086/083), Frogadier (087/083), and the Mega Greninja ex card. All three are Illustration Rares or equivalent, and placed side by side they form a single continuous illustration. Completing this triptych requires pulling three specific IRs from a pool of multiple IRs in the set — at ~4 IRs per box, this is achievable but not guaranteed from a single box.
Should You Open or Buy Singles?
Open if:
- You enjoy the pack-opening experience and are comfortable with the variance (over half of packs yield only a regular Rare)
- You want to build toward the full set including regulars, reverse holos, and IRs
- You are hunting the Froakie–Frogadier–Greninja triptych and enjoy opening for specific IRs
- You want the consistent IR and ex experience — 4 IRs per box is a solid pull frequency
Buy singles if:
- You specifically want Mega Greninja ex SIR (114/083) or MHR (120/083) — the expected cost to pull either through opening boxes far exceeds the single card price
- You want any specific SIR: at ~1 in 5 boxes per SIR pull, and 6 SIRs in the set, targeting any one specifically through opening is extremely expensive
- You want Special Red Card for competitive play — its ~$1 market price makes buying the single the obvious choice
The numbers on chasing Mega Greninja ex SIR
- Observed SIR rate: ~1 per 3–4 boxes (2 SIRs across 268 packs)
- Number of SIRs in set: 6 (cards 114–119/083)
- Odds of hitting specifically Greninja SIR (1 of 6): ~1 in 30 boxes
- At typical booster box retail price, chasing Greninja SIR through opening costs significantly more than buying the single
- The MHR (120/083) at ~$496 is rarer still — buying the single is the clear choice
The honest bottom line: Chaos Rising is a decent opening product if you enjoy the experience — the IR rate is consistent and you will see ex cards regularly. But with over half of packs yielding only a regular Rare, and SIRs hitting roughly once every 5 boxes, this is not a product where the math favours chasing the top cards through opening.
Buy Chaos Rising on TCGPlayer
Frequently Asked Questions
Does every Chaos Rising pack have an ex?
No. From our 168-pack sample, 97 packs (57.7%) yielded only a regular Rare in the rare slot — no ex or above. This is typical for English SV-era products. Expect roughly 1 ex hit per 4–5 packs on average.
Is the Froakie triptych hard to complete?
Each piece of the triptych is an Illustration Rare. With ~4 IRs per box and multiple IRs in the set's pool, completing all three from a single box is unlikely. A more practical approach: open boxes for the experience, and buy the one or two missing triptych pieces as singles.
How does Chaos Rising compare to Ninja Spinner (Japanese)?
Chaos Rising is the English localisation of Ninja Spinner (M4) with the same core card pool. Japanese and English packs differ in structure — Japanese packs have 5 cards each versus 10 for English — so pull rates per pack are not directly comparable between the two. Our data is specific to English product.
What is the MHR (Master Hyper Rare) in Chaos Rising?
The Master Hyper Rare is Mega Greninja ex (120/083) — the alternate full-art version of the set's headliner, with a current market price around $496 USD. It is the rarest pull in the set. Zero were pulled in our 168-pack sample, which is expected at this rarity level.
Is Cinccino ex actually good for competitive play?
Cinccino ex's Smooth Coat ability flips a coin when it takes attack damage — on heads, that damage is prevented. This can swing games where the opponent has committed resources to knock out Cinccino. It has seen play in Japanese formats and is worth watching as the English meta develops. The SIR version is a genuine collector target beyond just competitive interest.
Is Special Red Card worth buying as a single?
Yes — the UR full art version of Special Red Card (106/083) has a market price of approximately $1 USD, making it one of the most cost-efficient competitive pickups in the set. Despite being in roughly half of all Japanese tournament decks, it is not a financially significant single. Never chase it through packs.
Disclaimer: Pull rates are community estimates from 268 packs across two samples. All prices are estimates — verify current prices before buying or selling. This is not financial advice.