Delta Reign Pack Odds Calculator
Set how many packs you’re opening — type a number or tap a sealed product — then pick the card you’re chasing. The big figure is your chance of pulling at least one of that rarity across your packs; the table below prices every tier at once. All rates come from the early 80-pack sample behind our Delta Reign pull-rate page.
Pick the card you actually want — the big number is your chance of pulling at least one across your pack count.
| Rarity | Per pack | Chance of ≥1 | Expected | Base odds |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Standard ex (Double Rare)Common | 25% | 100% | 9 | 1 in 4 |
| Illustration Rare (IR)Common | 6.3% | 90% | 2.3 | 1 in 16 |
| Ultra Rare (UR)Common | 10% | 98% | 3.6 | 1 in 10 |
| SIR (Special Illustration Rare)Chase | 2.5% | 60% | 0.9 | 1 in 40 |
| Mega Hyper RareLottery | 0.5% | 17% | 0.2 | 1 in 200 |
These are category odds. Delta Reign has an estimated 9 SIRs and 2 Mega Hyper Rares, so the chance of hitting one *specific* named card — Mega Rayquaza ex (138/103), say — is far longer than the tier rate shown here. The SIR tier landed just twice in our 80-pack sample.
Estimates only. Rates come from an early 80-pack community sample gathered ahead of the 6 November 2026 official launch, and the SIR/MHR rows rest on just 1–2 pulls, so treat them as provisional — expect this to tighten once more case data lands post-release. Odds assume each pack is an independent draw at the observed per-pack rate; a real box or case can over- or under-shoot. Not affiliated with The Pokémon Company.
The Per-Pack Rates Behind the Calculator
A booster box is 36 packs, the standard English Mega Evolution-era unit, so the presets map straight onto real sealed product. These are the same aggregates published on the pull-rate page:
| Rarity | Per Pack | Base Odds | Notes |
|---|---|---|---|
| Standard ex (Double Rare) | 25.0% | ~1 in 4 | The most common hit — 20 in our 80-pack sample (1 in 4), drawn from 10 distinct main-set ex including Mega Rayquaza ex itself. Expect roughly 9 in a full booster box. |
| Illustration Rare (IR) | 6.3% | ~1 in 16 | Secret-numbered full-bleed Pokémon art (104-117, 14 distinct cards — e.g. Pincurchin 109/103, Groudon 111/103) — 5 in 80 packs (1 in 16), about 2 per box. |
| Ultra Rare (UR) | 10.0% | ~1 in 10 | The set’s single biggest secret tier (118-134, 17 distinct cards) — full-art Trainers (Pokémon Catcher, Zinnia’s Trust, Tate & Liza’s Training, Emcee’s Hype), full-art Mega-ex pulls (Talonflame ex 124/103, Mega Golisopod ex 118/103) and the set’s 3 special Energy cards all land here — 8 in 80 packs (1 in 10), about 4 per box. |
| SIR (Special Illustration Rare) | 2.5% | ~1 in 40 | Premium painterly secret rares (135-140, 6 distinct cards) — 2 in 80 packs (1 in 40), roughly 1 per box. Includes Raikou ex (136/103) and Mega Rayquaza ex (138/103). |
| Mega Hyper Rare | 0.50% | ~1 in 200 | The single rarest card in the set — only 1 exists at this tier, Mega Rayquaza ex (141/103). Not yet pulled in our 80-pack sample (expected, at this scarcity); this rate is an estimate based on comparable sets’ top-secret scarcity, roughly 1 in 200 packs (~1 in 5.6 boxes), and will be replaced the moment a confirmed MHR pull is logged. |
About 44% of packs delivered an ex or better across our 80-pack sample — a hit-heavy but not guaranteed product. The rest (56%) were floor-only (commons, uncommons and regular rares, including a few “connecting art” commons).
How the Odds Are Calculated
The model is deliberately simple and honest. For each rarity it takes the observed per-pack rate and treats every pack as an independent draw:
- Chance of ≥1 — the probability at least one pack in your batch contains that rarity, computed as
1 − (1 − rate)^packs. This is the number most people mean by “my odds.” - Expected — the average number you’d pull across your packs, simply
rate × packs. It can exceed 1 for common tiers over a box — you average ~9 ex per 36-pack box. - Base odds — the flat per-pack rate expressed as “1 in N,” so you can see the single-pack chance at a glance.
Two honest caveats. First, this is an early sample gathered before official launch — the SIR rate rests on just 2 pulls out of 80 packs, and MHR rests on 0 (only 1 card exists at that tier in the whole 141-card set), so they carry real variance and will move once post-launch case data arrives. Second, the model assumes packs are independent at the average rate; real print runs and collation can cluster hits, so a live box or case can over- or under-shoot the numbers here.
Odds of a Specific Named Card
The calculator prices rarity tiers, not individual cards — and that distinction matters. The 2.5% SIR rate is the chance of pulling any SIR, but the set carries 6 confirmed SIRs (Raikou ex, Mega Rayquaza ex, Mega Golisopod ex, Zinnia’s Trust and 2 more, per the official checklist). The odds of a specific one — the fan-favourite Mega Rayquaza ex (138/103) — are a fraction of that tier rate, which is exactly why chasing a named card through packs almost always costs more than buying the single.
The same holds for the Mega Hyper Rare tier at the very top. Use the tier odds to judge whether to open at all; use singles when you want one particular card.
Frequently Asked Questions
What are my odds of pulling an SIR?
Any SIR lands at about 2.5% per pack (~1 in 40) — roughly a 60% chance over a full 36-pack booster box. Set your pack count above and pick SIR to see it live — but remember it’s any SIR, and a specific card like Mega Rayquaza ex (138/103) is much rarer.
How many packs to pull a Mega Hyper Rare?
Mega Hyper Rare is the single rarest card in the set — only 1 exists (Mega Rayquaza ex, 141/103) — and it did not appear in our 80-pack sample. Based on comparable sets we estimate roughly 0.5% per pack, which would need roughly 138 packs — about 3.8 booster boxes — for a coin-flip chance at the one card. That estimate carries real uncertainty until a confirmed pull is logged. It’s the rarest tier in the set and a genuine lottery, so buy the single if you want it.
Does every pack have an ex?
No — about 56% of packs in our sample were floor-only. You average roughly 1 ex per 4 packs (~9 per full box), and 44% of packs carried an ex or better.
How reliable is this data before launch?
It’s a real 80-pack sample from community box breaks, but it’s small and early — gathered 4 days before the official 6 November 2026 release. The common tiers (ex, IR, UR) are reasonably settled; SIR rests on a handful of pulls and MHR rests on zero (expected, with only 1 card at that tier) — both will firm up fast once more boxes open.
Disclaimer: All odds are estimates from an early 80-pack sample and carry real variance, especially in the SIR and MHR tiers. The calculator models each pack as an independent draw at the average per-pack rate; real openings can over- or under-shoot. The Pokémon Company does not publish official pull rates. This is not financial advice.