30th Anniversary Pack Odds Calculator
Set how many packs you’re opening — type a number or tap a sealed product — then pick the card you’re chasing. The big figure is your chance of pulling at least one of that rarity across your packs; the table below prices every tier at once. All rates come from the leaked 191-pack sample behind our 30th Anniversary pull-rate page.
Pick the card you actually want — the big number is your chance of pulling at least one across your pack count.
| Rarity | Per pack | Chance of ≥1 | Expected | Base odds |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Holo PikachuGuaranteed | 100% | 100% | 5 | every pack |
| Standard ex (Double Rare)Common | 22% | 70% | 1.1 | 1 in 4.7 |
| Illustration Rare (IR)Common | 16% | 59% | 0.8 | 1 in 6.2 |
| Classic Reprint (gold border)Chase | 8.9% | 37% | 0.4 | 1 in 11 |
| Special Illustration Rare (SIR)Chase | 6.8% | 30% | 0.3 | 1 in 15 |
| FUR (YOSHIROTTEN)Lottery | 0.5% | 2.5% | 0 | 1 in 200 |
These are category odds. The set has a dozen-plus different SIRs and two FUR cards, so the chance of hitting one *specific* named card is far longer than the tier rate shown here.
Estimates only. Rates come from 191 leaked pre-release packs and carry heavy variance — treat them as a provisional early snapshot that will move at release. Odds assume each pack is independent at the observed per-pack rate; a real run can over- or under-shoot. Not affiliated with The Pokémon Company.
The Per-Pack Rates Behind the Calculator
Every English pack is 5 cards, one always a holo Pikachu from the 30-card / 30-artist subset. Because the booster-box / bundle pack count is still unconfirmed pre-release, we work entirely per pack. These are the same aggregates published on the pull-rate page:
| Rarity | Per Pack | Base Odds | Notes |
|---|---|---|---|
| Holo Pikachu | 100% | every pack | One guaranteed holo Pikachu every pack, from the 30-card / 30-artist subset. The floor, not a chase — 100% of 191 packs had one. |
| Standard ex (Double Rare) | 21.5% | ~1 in 5 | The most common secondary hit — 41 in 191 packs (~1 in 5). Non-full-art ex Pokémon like Umbreon ex, Gengar ex, Pikachu ex. |
| Illustration Rare (IR) | 16.2% | ~1 in 6 | Full-art non-ex with illustrated background — ~1 every 6 packs (31 in 191). Maushold, Drifloon, Gholdengo, Moltres and more. |
| Classic Reprint (gold border) | 8.9% | ~1 in 11 | Gold-border 30th-stamped vintage reprints — ~9% of packs (17 in 191), spread across many different cards. You do not need the UPC to hit them. |
| Special Illustration Rare (SIR) | 6.8% | ~1 in 15 | Premium full-art ex / character art — 13 in 191 packs (~7%, ~1 in 15). Pikachu ex, Gengar ex, Fuecoco ex, Greninja, Sylveon and more. |
| FUR (YOSHIROTTEN) | 0.5% | ~1 in 200 | Mewtwo ex & Mew ex digital fine-art — the top of the set. Exactly one Mewtwo ex FUR in 191 packs (~0.5%, ~1 in 191). A lottery, not a plan. |
A holo Pikachu appears in 100% of packs and is the floor, not a hit. Just under half of packs (46%) contained only the Pikachu, so about 54% delivered a secondary hit — most often a standard ex.
How the Odds Are Calculated
The model is deliberately simple and honest. For each rarity it takes the observed per-pack rate and treats every pack as an independent draw:
- Chance of ≥1 — the probability at least one pack in your batch contains that rarity, computed as
1 − (1 − rate)^packs. This is the number most people mean by “my odds.” - Expected — the average number you’d pull across your packs, simply
rate × packs. It can exceed 1 for common tiers over many packs. - Base odds — the flat per-pack rate expressed as “1 in N,” so you can see the single-pack chance at a glance.
Two honest caveats. First, the rates rest on an early 191-pack sample, so they carry real variance — a rising percentage means “better odds,” not a promise. Second, the model assumes packs are independent at the average rate; real print runs and collation can cluster hits, so a live case can over- or under-shoot the numbers here.
Odds of a Specific Named Card
The calculator prices rarity tiers, not individual cards — and that distinction matters. The ~6.8% SIR rate is the chance of pulling any SIR, but the set has a dozen-plus different SIRs (Pikachu ex, Gengar ex, Fuecoco ex, Greninja, Salamence, Jirachi, Sylveon, Meowth and more). The odds of a specific one are a fraction of that tier rate, which is exactly why chasing a named card through packs almost always costs more than buying the single.
The same holds for the two YOSHIROTTEN FUR cards (Mewtwo ex, Mew ex) at the very top, and for the ~30 gold-border classic reprints. Use the tier odds to judge whether to open at all; use singles when you want one particular card.
Frequently Asked Questions
What are my odds of pulling an SIR?
About 6.8% per pack (~1 in 15) from the 191-pack sample. That is roughly a 30% chance over a 5-pack product and about 87% over 29 packs (one UPC). Set your pack count above and pick SIR to see it live — but remember it’s any SIR, not a specific named one.
How many packs to pull a FUR?
The YOSHIROTTEN FUR cards sit at ~0.5% per pack. You’d need roughly 140 packs for a coin-flip chance at a single FUR — a genuine lottery, so buy the single if you want Mewtwo ex or Mew ex specifically.
Does every pack have a Pikachu?
Yes — one guaranteed holo Pikachu in every pack, from a 30-card, 30-artist subset. It shows as a flat 100% in the calculator, so your Pikachu count always equals your pack count.
Can I pull classic reprints from normal packs?
Yes, at about 8.9% per pack — confirmed pullable from standard packs, not just the UPC classic collection pack. Over 5 packs that’s ~37%; over 29 packs, ~93%.
Disclaimer: All odds are estimates from 191 leaked pre-release packs and carry heavy variance, especially in the rare tiers. The calculator models each pack as an independent draw at the average per-pack rate; real openings can over- or under-shoot. The Pokémon Company does not publish official pull rates. This is not financial advice.