Card prices are sourced from PriceCharting market data (USD). SGD equivalents use an approximate 1.28 exchange rate. Journey Together is currently negative expected value at all price points — retail and market alike. The data below explains why.
The Short Answer
Opening Journey Together loses money on average at every product price point. The expected card value per pack is USD $4.71 — below Singapore retail (~USD $6.64) and well below secondary market pack prices ($7.36):
| Product | Retail Price (USD) | Market Price (USD) | Expected Card Value | Return at Retail | Verdict |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Booster Pack | ~$6.64 | ~$7.36 | $4.71 | 0.71× | −EV at retail and market |
| Booster Bundle (6 packs) | ~$39.84 | ~$40.69 | $28.28 | 0.71× | −EV at retail and market |
| ~Break-even bundle | ~$28.28 USD (SGD ~$36) | $28.28 | 1.0× | Expected value equals cost | |
| Booster Box (36 packs) | ~$239.06 | ~$260.95 | $169.66 | 0.71× | −EV at retail and market |
| ~Break-even box | ~$169.66 USD (SGD ~$217) | $169.66 | 1.0× | Expected value equals cost | |
Why is Journey Together negative EV? Three reasons working together: (1) the Hyper Rare is Spiky Energy (#190), a Special Energy trainer currently worth only USD $5.10 — one of the lowest-value Hyper Rares in the SV era; (2) the SIR pool average is $44.98 — far below sets like Ascended Heroes ($289) or Chaos Rising ($128); (3) the break-even box price is $169.66, but no Journey Together product currently trades below that level. Until card prices rise or sealed product prices fall significantly, the math does not favour opening.
Card Prices by Rarity
Journey Together (SV09) has 190 cards across six rarity tiers above common. Here is the full price breakdown by rarity, using current market prices.
Hyper Rare (◇) — #190
One card. The gold full-art treatment in this set goes to a Special Energy, not a Pokemon — which explains its low market value. Estimated pull rate approximately 1 in 137 packs.
| # | Card | Price (USD) | Price (SGD est.) |
|---|---|---|---|
| 190 | Spiky Energy | $5.10 | ~$6.53 |
At $5.10, Spiky Energy contributes only $0.04 EV per pack — negligible. This is the key reason Journey Together underperforms sets like Stellar Crown or Surging Sparks where the single Hyper Rare is a popular Pokemon.
Special Illustration Rares (★★ SIR) — #182–189
8 cards. The main chase tier, featuring full-art special illustrations of the set's ex Pokemon. Estimated pull rate approximately 1 in 86 packs. Price range: $15–$125.
| # | Card | Price (USD) | Price (SGD est.) |
|---|---|---|---|
| 184 | Lillie's Clefairy ex | $124.97 | ~$160 |
| 187 | Salamence ex | $65.03 | ~$83 |
| 185 | N's Zoroark ex | $47.14 | ~$60 |
| 183 | Iono's Bellibolt ex | $39.60 | ~$51 |
| 186 | Hop's Zacian ex | $30.48 | ~$39 |
| 182 | Volcanion ex | $20.12 | ~$26 |
| 189 | N's Zoroark ex (alt) | $17.49 | ~$22 |
| 188 | Iono's Bellibolt ex (alt) | $15.03 | ~$19 |
Pool average: $44.98 USD. Pool median: $28.98 USD. Lillie's Clefairy ex is the dominant chase card in this tier at more than 2× the next most expensive SIR. Pulling any SIR other than Lillie's returns $15–$65 — meaningful, but not transformative at these product price levels.
Illustration Rares (★ IR) — #160–170
11 cards. Expected roughly once every 12 packs — the most frequently pulled "notable" rarity. Most IRS are worth $3–$23, with Articuno as the standout.
| # | Card | Price (USD) | Notes |
|---|---|---|---|
| 161 | Articuno | $22.80 | Chase IR — strong demand |
| 167 | N's Reshiram | $17.49 | |
| 162 | Wailord | $14.99 | |
| 164 | Lillie's Ribombee | $5.50 | |
| 163 | Iono's Kilowattrel | $5.01 | |
| 169 | Noibat | $6.06 | |
| 168 | Furret | $7.02 | |
| 166 | Lycanroc | $3.70 | |
| 160 | Maractus | $3.37 | |
| 165 | Swinub | $3.08 | |
| 170 | Hop's Wooloo | $4.49 |
Pool average: $8.50 USD. Pool median: $5.50 USD. Articuno and N's Reshiram skew the average — without those two, the average IR is closer to $5. The IR slot contributes $0.71 EV per pack, making it the single most valuable rarity contribution in the set.
Ultra Rares (★★) — #171–181
11 cards. Full-art alt illustrations of the set's ex Pokemon and trainers. Expected roughly once every 15 packs (6.7%). Lower price floor than IRs — most are worth $1.50–$8.
| # | Card | Price (USD) |
|---|---|---|
| 173 | Lillie's Clefairy ex | $7.98 |
| 175 | N's Zoroark ex | $5.51 |
| 179 | Brock's Scouting | $3.13 |
| 172 | Iono's Bellibolt ex | $2.50 |
| 177 | Salamence ex | $2.82 |
| 176 | Hop's Zacian ex | $2.78 |
| 178 | Dudunsparce ex | $2.37 |
| 180 | Iris's Fighting Spirit | $2.37 |
| 174 | Mamoswine ex | $1.81 |
| 171 | Volcanion ex | $1.68 |
| 181 | Ruffian | $1.52 |
Pool average: $3.13 USD. Pulling a UR is a modest hit at best — unlikely to materially offset your pack cost. These are the value floor of the hit slots.
Double Rares (★★ ex) — #001–159
16 ex cards across the base set. Expected roughly once every 5 packs (20%). Most are worth $0.94–$2.67, anchored by Blaziken ex and Lillie's Clefairy ex as the highest-value DRs.
| # | Card | Price (USD) |
|---|---|---|
| 056 | Lillie's Clefairy ex | $2.67 |
| 024 | Blaziken ex | $2.25 |
| 069 | Mimikyu ex | $2.26 |
| 098 | N's Zoroark ex | $1.72 |
| 030 | Reshiram ex | $1.64 |
| 114 | Salamence ex | $1.57 |
| 053 | Iono's Bellibolt ex | $1.49 |
| 043 | Veluza ex | $1.48 |
| 075 | Alcremie ex | $1.53 |
| 079 | Mamoswine ex | $1.32 |
| 011 | Amoonguss ex | $1.29 |
| 121 | Dudunsparce ex | $1.25 |
| 111 | Hop's Zacian ex | $1.33 |
| 031 | Volcanion ex | $1.00 |
| 094 | Paldean Clodsire ex | $1.21 |
| 051 | Tapu Koko ex | $0.94 |
Pool average: $1.56 USD. These are your most common "hit" — expected 7–8 per box — but their low individual value means they contribute modestly to total EV.
Chase Cards: Top 10 by Value
Lillie's Clefairy ex (#184) is the runaway chase card at nearly double the next SIR. Articuno (#161) is the most valuable IR and worth notably more than most URs. The absence of a $200+ SIR and the low HR price are what keep the overall EV anchored below retail product costs.
Expected Value Per Pack
Using current PriceCharting market prices weighted by community pull rates from 8,000 pack sample data, here is where the expected value of each Journey Together pack comes from:
| Component | Pull Rate | Pool Avg (USD) | EV Contribution |
|---|---|---|---|
| Bulk (commons + uncommons) | 100% | $0.80 | $0.80 |
| Reverse Holo slot | 100% | $1.60 | $1.60 |
| Standard Rare (★) | 63.1% | $0.83 | $0.52 |
| Double Rare (★★ ex) | 20.0% | $1.56 | $0.31 |
| Illustration Rare (★ IR) | 8.3% | $8.50 | $0.71 |
| Ultra Rare (#171–181) | 6.7% | $3.13 | $0.21 |
| SIR (#182–189) | 1.16% | $44.98 | $0.52 |
| Hyper Rare (#190) | 0.73% | $5.10 | $0.04 |
Three things stand out in this table:
- The Hyper Rare contributes almost nothing — $0.04 per pack. At $5.10, Spiky Energy is cheaper than many Illustration Rares and gives you 0.73% pull rate with almost no reward. A typical SV-era Hyper Rare (Charizard, Pikachu, popular Pokemon) would contribute $0.20–$0.80 per pack.
- IRs are the most valuable slot — contributing $0.71 EV per pack at an 8.3% rate. Articuno (#161) at $22.80 and N's Reshiram (#167) at $17.49 make the IR pool the best individual hit relative to its frequency.
- The SIR rate is 1/86 packs but the pool average is only $45 — compare this to Ascended Heroes SIRs averaging $289. The low SIR pool average is the structural reason Journey Together is negative EV despite reasonable pull rates.
Monte Carlo: Win vs Loss Odds
The EV table above gives averages. What actually happens to individual openers is driven by variance. The charts below show results from 100,000 simulated openings, drawing from the actual card pool prices and pull rates — not from averages.
Each bar = $50 profit/loss range. ··· represents an empty gap in outcomes. 100,000 simulated openings. Prices from PriceCharting (USD), May 2026.
Win / Loss summary across all formats
| Scenario | Cost | Win % | Loss % | Median P/L | P5 (bad luck) | P95 (good luck) | Avg Return |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Pack — retail (~$6.64) | $6.64 | 9.2% | 90.8% | −$3 | −$4 | +$2 | 0.71× |
| Bundle — retail (~$39.84) | $39.84 | 11.9% | 88.1% | −$17 | −$21 | +$11 | 0.71× |
| Box — retail (~$239.06) | $239.06 | 6.8% | 93.2% | −$80 | −$109 | +$20 | 0.71× |
| Pack — market ($7.36) | $7.36 | 8.5% | 91.5% | −$4 | −$5 | +$1 | 0.64× |
| Bundle — market ($40.69) | $40.69 | 11.0% | 89.0% | −$17 | −$21 | +$10 | 0.70× |
| Box — market ($260.95) | $260.95 | 4.8% | 95.2% | −$102 | −$131 | −$2 | 0.65× |
P5 = the outcome in the worst 5% of openings. P95 = the outcome in the best 5%. Win = profit > $0. Market prices from PriceCharting. Simulation: 100,000 runs, seed 42.
What stands out:
- The box at market has a P95 of −$2 — meaning even in the top 5% of outcomes, a booster box at market barely breaks even. You need to be in the top ~5% of luck just to not lose money.
- The box at retail has a P95 of only +$20 — a modest upside ceiling. The best realistic box outcome pulls a Lillie's Clefairy ex SIR and a few other hits, returning roughly $260–$290 in cards on a $240 investment.
- Opening a single pack: 91–92% of the time you lose. The median outcome is a −$3 to −$4 loss regardless of whether you buy at retail or market price.
The Break-Even Price
If the expected value per pack is $4.71 USD, the break-even prices for each product format are:
What would need to change for Journey Together to become +EV? Either card prices need to rise or product prices need to fall. The most likely path is product price decline as supply builds — once booster boxes approach SGD $217 (~USD $169), the math becomes neutral. Alternatively, if Lillie's Clefairy ex SIR appreciates significantly (as sometimes happens with nostalgic or competitive cards), the SIR pool average could improve enough to bring EV near break-even.
Sensitivity to SIR price changes
| SIR Price Scenario | EV per Pack | Break-even Bundle (USD) | Break-even Box (USD) |
|---|---|---|---|
| Current prices (May 2026) | $4.71 | ~$28.28 | ~$169.66 |
| SIRs +25% | ~$4.84 | ~$29.04 | ~$174.24 |
| SIRs +50% | ~$4.97 | ~$29.82 | ~$178.92 |
| SIRs +100% | ~$5.23 | ~$31.38 | ~$188.28 |
Even a 100% increase in all SIR prices only raises EV to $5.23 per pack — still below Singapore retail (~$6.64). The SIR pool contributes only $0.52 per pack at current rates. SIR prices alone cannot bring Journey Together to positive EV at current product prices. A meaningful reduction in sealed product prices is the more reliable path to a better EV scenario.
What You Should Actually Do
If you want a specific card
Buy the single. Use the tcgTalk price comparison to find the best current Singapore price across Carousell, Facebook, and SNKRDUNK. For any card worth more than approximately $15 USD, buying the single is always cheaper than opening enough packs to pull it. The expected cost to pull a specific SIR (1 of 8 in the SIR pool) is approximately 86 packs × 1/8 ≈ 688 packs — thousands of dollars in product to target a single card.
If you want to open packs
Open at Singapore retail and set a firm budget before you start. Journey Together is negative EV at all price points, so treat the opening cost as entertainment spending rather than an investment. Single packs at a local game store are the lowest-risk format — you know you are spending $6–$9 for the experience. Booster boxes at retail give you the most consistent sampling of the pool, but the P95 box outcome is only +$20 above cost, so upside is limited.
Never open at market prices for value. At $7.36 per pack, you receive $4.71 in expected card value — a 0.64× return. There is no format or price point at current market rates where this set is positive EV.
If you are buying sealed for investment
Journey Together sealed is not a strong investment at current prices. Product is trading above break-even card value, meaning sealed appreciation relies on demand increasing rather than underlying card prices supporting it. If you believe the set has strong long-term appeal (nostalgic characters, competitive staples), sealed product bought at or near Singapore retail may appreciate — but this is a speculative thesis, not a mathematical one. Booster boxes are the most liquid sealed format. Avoid buying at secondary market premiums.
If you already have pulls to sell
Lillie's Clefairy ex SIR (#184) at $124.97 is the set's dominant chase card. If you pulled one, SIR prices in most SV-era sets are front-loaded and tend to soften 2–4 months after release as supply builds. Selling within 6–8 weeks of pulling is usually the highest-price window unless the card has ongoing competitive or collector demand. IRs like Articuno (#161) at $22.80 and N's Reshiram (#167) at $17.49 are more stable — nostalgia and collector appeal often sustains IR prices better than SIRs in the long run.
Frequently Asked Questions
Is it worth opening Journey Together packs?
No, not by the numbers. The expected value per pack ($4.71) is below Singapore retail (~$6.64) and market ($7.36). You are spending $1–$2.65 more per pack than the expected card value returned. Open if you enjoy the experience and can afford the cost as entertainment — but do not open expecting to profit.
What is the most expensive Journey Together card right now?
Lillie's Clefairy ex Special Illustration Rare (#184) at approximately USD $124.97 (~SGD $160). Salamence ex SIR (#187) at USD $65.03 (~SGD $83) and N's Zoroark ex SIR (#185) at USD $47.14 (~SGD $60) are second and third.
What is the Journey Together Hyper Rare?
Spiky Energy (#190) — a gold full-art Special Energy card, currently valued at USD $5.10 (~SGD $6.53). It is one of the lowest-value Hyper Rares in the SV era, reflecting low collector and competitive demand for this particular card.
How many IRs are in Journey Together?
11 Illustration Rares (#160–170): Maractus, Articuno, Wailord, Iono's Kilowattrel, Lillie's Ribombee, Swinub, Lycanroc, N's Reshiram, Furret, Noibat, and Hop's Wooloo. Articuno (#161) at $22.80 is the standout.
What are the best Journey Together cards to collect?
For value and collector appeal: Lillie's Clefairy ex SIR (#184) is the clear chase card. For more accessible collecting, Articuno IR (#161) at $22.80 and N's Reshiram IR (#167) at $17.49 offer strong nostalgia pull at moderate cost. The Salamence ex SIR (#187) and N's Zoroark ex SIR (#185) round out the top tier for collectors focused on SIRs.
When will Journey Together packs become good EV to open?
When sealed product prices fall to approximately USD $4.71 per pack (SGD ~$6) — the current EV. For booster boxes, that means a box price around SGD $217 (~USD $170). Alternatively, if Lillie's Clefairy ex SIR and other top SIRs significantly appreciate, the EV improves — but even a 100% SIR price increase only adds $0.52 per pack EV. Product price decline is the faster path to break-even.
Disclaimer: All card prices are from PriceCharting market data (USD) as of May 2026 and are indicative of current secondary market rates — they will change. SGD equivalents use an approximate 1.28 exchange rate (May 2026). Pull rates are community estimates from aggregate opening data (8,000 packs); The Pokemon Company does not publish official pull rates. Monte Carlo results use 100,000 simulated openings. This is not financial advice. Verify current prices on tcgTalk or Carousell before making any buying or selling decisions.