Card prices are sourced from PriceCharting market data (USD). SGD equivalents use an approximate 1.28 exchange rate. Prices reflect current secondary market rates and will change as the set ages.
The Short Answer
Obsidian Flames is one of the clearest cases in recent SV history where market pricing is dramatically disconnected from card value. The expected card value per pack is $5.79 USD — but market packs cost $11.73, bundles cost $90.97, and boxes cost $370. You lose roughly 50 cents for every dollar you spend opening at market prices. At Singapore retail (~SGD $6.50/pack), the math is slightly positive but the margin is thin.
| Product | Retail Price (USD) | Market Price (USD) | Expected Card Value | Return at Retail | Verdict |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Booster Pack | ~$5.08 | ~$11.73 | $5.79 | 1.14× | +EV at retail. Deeply −EV at market. |
| Booster Bundle (6 packs) | ~$30.48 | ~$90.97 | $34.74 | 1.14× | +EV at retail. Deeply −EV at market. |
| ~Break-even bundle | ~$34.74 USD (SGD ~$44) | $34.74 | 1.0× | Expected value equals cost. | |
| Booster Box (36 packs) | ~$182.88 | ~$370.00 | $208.44 | 1.14× | +EV at retail. Deeply −EV at market. |
| ~Break-even box | ~$208.44 USD (SGD ~$267) | $208.44 | 1.0× | Expected value equals cost. | |
The Charizard premium explained: Obsidian Flames commands inflated sealed prices because of Charizard ex — one of the most desirable cards in the modern Pokemon TCG era. But the Charizard ex SIR (#223) is worth only ~$114, and at 3.1% SIR rate with 8 SIRs in the pool, the expected cost to land it specifically is ~256 packs (~$3,000 at market). The sealed demand outruns the actual card value by a wide margin.
Card Prices by Rarity
Obsidian Flames (SV03) has 230 cards with six rarity tiers above common. The set is anchored by Charizard ex, which appears at four different rarity levels — Double Rare, Ultra Rare, SIR, and Hyper Rare. The IR pool is a standout for its depth: Ninetales and Cleffa both crack $40, making it one of the stronger IR pools in SV-era sets.
Hyper Rare (◇ HR) — #226–230
5 cards. Gold full-art treatment. Estimated pull rate approximately 1 in 52 packs (1.9%). Charizard ex (#228) dominates — the other four cards average only $3.60.
| # | Card | Price (USD) | Price (SGD est.) |
|---|---|---|---|
| 228 | Charizard ex | $40.00 | ~$51 |
| 230 | Fire Energy | $4.68 | ~$6 |
| 226 | Geeta | $4.25 | ~$5 |
| 227 | Poppy | $3.28 | ~$4 |
| 229 | Artazon | $2.20 | ~$3 |
Pool average: $10.88 USD. Pool median: $4.25 USD. The median tells the real story — most HR pulls are worth $2–5, with Charizard being the only meaningful pull in the pool.
Special Illustration Rares (★★ SIR) — #218–225
8 cards. Estimated pull rate approximately 1 in 32 packs (3.1%). Price range: $1.62–$113.80. The pool is extremely top-heavy — Charizard ex SIR alone accounts for 75% of the total pool value.
| # | Card | Price (USD) | Price (SGD est.) |
|---|---|---|---|
| 223 | Charizard ex | $113.80 | ~$146 |
| 225 | Pidgeot ex | $19.49 | ~$25 |
| 222 | Eiscue ex | $5.82 | ~$7 |
| 224 | Revavroom ex | $5.30 | ~$7 |
| 221 | Ryme | $1.86 | ~$2 |
| 220 | Poppy | $1.92 | ~$2 |
| 218 | Geeta | $1.74 | ~$2 |
| 219 | Ortega | $1.62 | ~$2 |
Pool average: $18.94 USD. Pool median: $3.58 USD. The mean is massively skewed by Charizard ex. Without it, the remaining 7 SIRs average only $5.39. If you pull an SIR that is not Charizard ex or Pidgeot ex, it is worth $1.62–$5.82 — barely more than a good IR.
Illustration Rares (★ IR) — #198–209
12 cards. Expected roughly once every 13 packs (7.7%). This is one of the strongest IR pools in SV-era — two cards above $40 and no true "filler" at the low end.
| # | Card | Price (USD) | Notes |
|---|---|---|---|
| 199 | Ninetales | $44.51 | Top IR — fan favourite fire art |
| 202 | Cleffa | $42.39 | Top IR — beloved baby illustration |
| 198 | Gloom | $24.34 | Strong mid-tier IR |
| 207 | Pidgey | $16.99 | |
| 205 | Scizor | $16.67 | |
| 209 | Lechonk | $11.87 | |
| 208 | Pidgeotto | $11.20 | |
| 204 | Houndour | $10.42 | |
| 203 | Larvitar | $7.64 | |
| 201 | Bellibolt | $5.58 | |
| 200 | Palafin | $4.91 | |
| 206 | Varoom | $2.99 | Lowest-value IR in the set |
Pool average: $16.63 USD. Pool median: $11.54 USD. Unlike most SV-era sets where the IR pool is carried by one or two outliers, Obsidian Flames has genuine depth — 8 of 12 IRs are worth $10 or more. Any IR pull is a meaningful outcome.
Ultra Rares (★★ UR) — #210–217
8 cards. Full-art ex cards. Expected roughly once every 15 packs (6.7%). Charizard ex (#215) at $19.99 is the standout; the remaining 7 average only $2.98.
| # | Card | Price (USD) |
|---|---|---|
| 215 | Charizard ex | $19.99 |
| 211 | Tyranitar ex | $5.62 |
| 210 | Eiscue ex | $2.99 |
| 214 | Absol ex | $3.40 |
| 217 | Pidgeot ex | $3.39 |
| 212 | Vespiquen ex | $1.97 |
| 216 | Revavroom ex | $1.61 |
| 213 | Glimmora ex | $1.48 |
Pool average: $5.06 USD. Most UR pulls are worth $1.48–$3.40 — modest filler-level returns. Only Charizard ex (#215) and Tyranitar ex (#211) make a UR feel like a meaningful outcome.
Double Rares (★★ ex) — within #001–185
21 ex cards scattered through the main set. Expected roughly once every 7 packs (14.3%). Charizard ex (#125) leads at $6.00; the rest cluster between $1.00–$3.16.
| # | Card | Price (USD) |
|---|---|---|
| 125 | Charizard ex | $6.00 |
| 159 | Dragonite ex | $3.16 |
| 164 | Pidgeot ex | $2.22 |
| 66 | Tyranitar ex | $1.99 |
| 42 | Eiscue ex | $1.94 |
| 134 | Houndoom ex | $1.83 |
| 135 | Absol ex | $1.74 |
| 15 | Decidueye ex | $1.37 |
| 120 | Klawf ex | $1.34 |
| 179 | Greedent ex | $1.33 |
| 156 | Revavroom ex | $1.47 |
| 124 | Koraidon ex | $1.50 |
| 82 | Clefable ex | $1.49 |
| 79 | Miraidon ex | $1.17 |
| 123 | Glimmora ex | $1.18 |
| 33 | Victini ex | $1.31 |
| 22 | Toedscruel ex | $1.23 |
| 73 | Pawmot ex | $1.21 |
| 96 | Vespiquen ex | $1.02 |
| 102 | Houndstone ex | $1.00 |
| 153 | Melmetal ex | $1.00 |
Pool average: $1.74 USD. These are the lowest-value pulls above bulk — expected often but returning little.
Chase Cards: Top 10 by Value
Charizard ex appears at three of the top ten spots across three different rarities. The other striking feature: 5 of the top 10 cards are Illustration Rares — a much stronger IR pool than typical SV-era sets. The Ninetales and Cleffa IRs at $42–$45 rival or beat many SIRs from other sets.
Expected Value Per Pack
Using current PriceCharting market prices weighted by pull rates from 8,000-pack community aggregate data for Obsidian Flames, here is where the expected value of each pack comes from:
| Component | Pull Rate | Pool Avg (USD) | EV Contribution |
|---|---|---|---|
| Bulk (commons + uncommons) | 100% | $0.80 | $0.80 |
| Reverse Holo slot | 100% | $1.60 | $1.60 |
| Standard Rare (★) | 66.3% | $1.09 | $0.72 |
| Double Rare (★★ ex) | 14.3% | $1.74 | $0.25 |
| Illustration Rare (★ IR) | 7.7% | $16.63 | $1.28 |
| Ultra Rare (#210–217) | 6.7% | $5.06 | $0.34 |
| SIR (#218–225) | 3.1% | $18.94 | $0.59 |
| Hyper Rare (#226–230) | 1.9% | $10.88 | $0.21 |
Key observations from this table:
- IRs are the single largest hit-slot EV contributor at $1.28 per pack — more than SIRs ($0.59) and HRs ($0.21) combined. The deep IR pool with two $40+ cards makes every IR pull meaningful.
- SIRs contribute only 10.2% of total EV despite being the "premium" chase tier. This is because 6 of 8 SIRs are worth under $6, and only Charizard ex ($113.80) and Pidgeot ex ($19.49) move the needle meaningfully.
- The Charizard effect: Remove Charizard ex from the SIR and HR pools and EV drops from $5.79 to approximately $5.23 per pack — a $0.56 reduction. This set's value is structurally dependent on Charizard maintaining its premium.
- The DR pool is a weak spot: 21 ex cards at 14.3% rate returning only $1.74 average. You will hit a DR roughly once every 7 packs and pocket under $2 most of the time.
Monte Carlo: Win vs Loss Odds
The EV table above gives averages. What actually happens to individual openers is driven by variance. The charts below show results from 100,000 simulated openings, drawing from the actual card pool prices and pull rates — not averages.
Each bar = $50 profit/loss range. The -$200 bar (40.5%) is the modal outcome — most openers lose $150–$200 at current market prices. 100,000 simulated openings. Prices from PriceCharting (USD), May 2026.
Win / Loss summary across all formats
| Scenario | Cost | Win % | Loss % | Median P/L | P5 (bad luck) | P95 (good luck) | Avg Return |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Pack — retail (~$5.08) | $5.08 | 16.4% | 83.6% | −$1 | −$3 | +$14 | 1.14× |
| Bundle — retail (~$30.48) | $30.48 | 36.1% | 63.9% | −$5 | −$11 | +$40 | 1.14× |
| Box — retail (~$182.88) | $182.88 | 60.6% | 39.4% | +$12 | −$41 | +$135 | 1.14× |
| Pack — market (~$11.73) | $11.73 | 7.3% | 92.7% | −$8 | −$9 | +$7 | 0.50× |
| Bundle — market (~$90.97) | $90.97 | 2.9% | 97.1% | −$65 | −$72 | −$19 | 0.38× |
| Box — market (~$370.00) | $370.00 | 1.5% | 98.5% | −$175 | −$228 | −$51 | 0.56× |
P5 = the outcome in the worst 5% of openings. P95 = the outcome in the best 5%. Win = profit > $0. Simulation: 100,000 runs, seed 42.
What these numbers mean in practice:
- At market prices, even the P95 (best-luck) bundle outcome is a loss of $19. There is essentially no realistic scenario where opening a bundle at $91 is a winning trade.
- The market box at $370 has a 98.5% loss rate. The median opener loses $175. Even the P95 box outcome (best 5% of runs) results in a $51 loss. You would need to pull 2–3 top-tier SIRs or the Charizard HR to break even.
- The retail box at 60.6% win rate with a median +$12 profit is genuinely decent — comparable to Chaos Rising retail. If you find official retail stock, that is the only format where opening makes sense.
- The +$40 bundle spike visible in the histogram represents the Charizard ex SIR pull scenario — pulling a ~$114 card in a $91 bundle turns a near-certain loss into a ~$43 win.
The Break-Even Price
If the expected value per pack is $5.79 USD, the break-even prices for each product format are:
Singapore context: Retail packs in Singapore cost approximately SGD $6.50 each (USD ~$5.08), below the break-even pack price of $5.79. However, Obsidian Flames is a 2023 set and official retail stock is scarce in 2026 — most purchases will be through secondary market channels where prices are far above break-even.
Sensitivity to SIR and Charizard price changes
| Scenario | EV per Pack | Break-even Bundle (USD) | Break-even Box (USD) |
|---|---|---|---|
| Current prices (May 2026) | $5.79 | ~$34.74 | ~$208.44 |
| All SIRs −25% | ~$5.64 | ~$33.84 | ~$203.04 |
| All SIRs −50% | ~$5.49 | ~$32.94 | ~$197.64 |
| All SIRs −75% | ~$5.34 | ~$32.04 | ~$192.24 |
| Charizard ex cards −50% (all rarities) | ~$5.51 | ~$33.06 | ~$198.36 |
Even in a worst-case SIR correction scenario (−75%), the break-even box price would only fall to ~$192 — still $178 below the current market box price of $370. The gap is too large for card price movements alone to close. Market box prices would need to fall roughly 44% to reach break-even at current card values.
What You Should Actually Do
If you want a specific card
Buy the single. Use the tcgTalk price comparison to find the best current Singapore price. For the Charizard ex SIR at ~$114, opening packs to hit it is not realistic — the expected number of packs to pull a specific SIR is 1/(SIR rate × 1/8 cards) = 1/(0.03125 × 0.125) ≈ 256 packs, or ~$3,003 at market pack prices. For Ninetales or Cleffa IR at ~$42–$45, the expected cost is 1/(IR rate × 1/12) ≈ 156 packs (~$1,829 at market). In both cases, buying the single is dramatically cheaper.
If you want to open packs
Only open at retail price. If you can find official sealed product at Singapore retail pricing (SGD ~$6.50/pack), the retail box gives a 60.6% win rate and 1.14× expected return — a reasonable opening proposition. At any market price above $208 USD per box, you are mathematically losing money on average and 98.5% of the time in practice. There is no bundle price at which market opening is sensible — even the best-case bundle outcome at market is still a loss.
If you are buying sealed for investment
Obsidian Flames sealed has already appreciated significantly from its 2023 retail price due to Charizard ex demand. The key risk is that Charizard ex cards account for a disproportionate share of both the set's collector appeal and its card value. If Charizard ex prices correct (as high-demand singles often do 12–24 months post-release), both sealed prices and card values would compress together, limiting upside on any position entered at current market prices. The break-even box at ~$208 is far below the $370 current market — you are paying a 78% premium above fundamental card value purely for sealed demand.
If you already have cards to sell
The Charizard ex SIR (#223) at ~$114 is the clear priority to sell first if you have one. The Ninetales IR (#199) and Cleffa IR (#202) at $42–$45 are surprisingly stable given their moderate price points — they maintain value because they are genuinely beloved illustrations, not just meta-relevant cards. The Charizard ex HR (#228) at $40 and UR (#215) at $20 are more vulnerable to correction as they derive value from the Charizard premium rather than independent card appeal.
Frequently Asked Questions
Is it worth opening Obsidian Flames packs?
At Singapore retail (~SGD $6.50/pack / USD ~$5.08), yes — EV is ~$5.79 USD per pack (1.14×) and the retail box has a 60.6% win rate. At secondary market prices, no — packs at $11.73, bundles at $90.97, and boxes at $370 all return 0.38×–0.56× on investment. The break-even box price is ~$208 USD; the market box at $370 is 78% above that.
What is the most expensive Obsidian Flames card?
Charizard ex SIR (#223) at approximately USD $113.80 (~SGD $146). The Ninetales IR (#199) at USD $44.51 and Cleffa IR (#202) at USD $42.39 are the second and third most valuable cards — both Illustration Rares, which is unusual for a set with SIRs and Hyper Rares above them in rarity.
How many SIRs are in Obsidian Flames?
8 Special Illustration Rares (#218–225) and 5 Hyper Rares (#226–230), for 13 premium rarity cards above the standard IR tier. However, the SIR pool is extremely uneven — Charizard ex (#223) at $113.80 accounts for 75% of the entire SIR pool's value. The other 7 SIRs average only $5.39.
Why is the Obsidian Flames box so expensive?
Market box prices (~$370) far exceed the mathematical break-even (~$208) because sealed demand is driven by Charizard ex hype, not by expected card value. Collectors and speculators pay a premium for sealed boxes hoping the Charizard ex SIR justifies the product. In pure EV terms, they are paying a 78% premium above the value of the cards inside.
Are the IR cards in Obsidian Flames worth pulling?
Yes — the 12 IRs average $16.63 USD, the second-highest IR pool average in the SV era after Ascended Heroes. Ninetales (#199) at $44.51 and Cleffa (#202) at $42.39 are exceptional. 8 of the 12 IRs are worth $10 or more. Unlike many sets where IRs are mostly filler, Obsidian Flames IRs are meaningful pulls at any position.
How does Obsidian Flames compare to Chaos Rising for pack opening?
Chaos Rising has a higher EV per pack ($7.05 vs $5.79) and a lower market box price ($236 vs $370). Chaos Rising boxes at market are actually positive EV (1.06×); Obsidian Flames boxes at market are deeply negative (0.56×). Obsidian Flames has a stronger IR pool but a weaker SIR pool (excluding Charizard ex). Overall, Chaos Rising is better value to open at market prices by a wide margin.
Disclaimer: All card prices are from PriceCharting market data (USD) as of May 2026 and are indicative of current secondary market rates — they will change. SGD equivalents use an approximate 1.28 exchange rate (May 2026). Pull rates are community estimates from 8,000-pack aggregate opening data; The Pokemon Company does not publish official pull rates. Monte Carlo results use 100,000 simulated openings, seed 42. This is not financial advice. Verify current prices on tcgTalk or Carousell before making any buying or selling decisions.