Card prices are sourced from PriceCharting market data (USD), May 2026. SGD equivalents use an approximate 1.28 exchange rate. Paldea Evolved released in June 2023 — market prices reflect significant secondary market appreciation since launch. Retail product is rare at original prices.
The Short Answer
At current secondary market prices, Paldea Evolved is one of the worst-value sets to open. The market box price (~USD $459) is approximately 1.9× the break-even price (~USD $240). The dominant reason is that the set has appreciated sharply since its 2023 launch — boxes that once cost $100–$120 now trade well above break-even on the secondary market. At Singapore retail (if you can find it), opening is positive EV. At market, it is firmly negative.
| Product | Retail Price (USD) | Market Price (USD) | Expected Card Value | Return at Retail | Verdict |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Booster Pack | ~$5.08 | ~$13.54 | $6.67 | 1.31× | +EV at retail. −EV at market. |
| Booster Bundle (6 packs) | ~$30.48 | ~$96.00 | $40.03 | 1.31× | +EV at retail. −EV at market. |
| ~Break-even bundle | ~$40.03 USD (SGD ~$51) | $40.03 | 1.0× | Expected value equals cost. | |
| Booster Box (36 packs) | ~$182.88 | ~$459.18 | $240.20 | 1.31× | +EV at retail. −EV at market. |
| ~Break-even box | ~$240.20 USD (SGD ~$307) | $240.20 | 1.0× | Expected value equals cost. | |
The Magikarp effect: The Magikarp Illustration Rare (#203) at $345 is an extreme outlier — it is 10× the value of the next comparable IR in the pool. This single card accounts for roughly 10% of total EV per pack (~$0.70 of $6.67). Every time you open a pack, you are betting heavily on a 1-in-36 IR slot landing on 1-in-36 specific IR — a 1-in-468 shot per pack. That is what drives the wild variance in outcomes and the enormous gap in the bundle histogram.
Card Prices by Rarity
Paldea Evolved (SV02) has 279 total cards across six rarity tiers above common. Released June 2023 as the second Scarlet & Violet era set, it introduced Iono, the Paradox Pokémon, and the beloved Paldean starter lines.
Hyper Rare (HR) — #271–279
9 cards. The set's premium gold-treatment tier, featuring ex Pokémon and key trainers. Estimated pull rate approximately 1 in 57 packs (1.75%). The HR cards are distinguishable by their gold etched full-art treatment.
| # | Card | Price (USD) | Price (SGD est.) |
|---|---|---|---|
| 278 | Basic Grass Energy | $10.39 | ~$13 |
| 279 | Basic Water Energy | $8.92 | ~$11 |
| 271 | Meowscarada ex | $8.13 | ~$10 |
| 274 | Chien-Pao ex | $6.99 | ~$9 |
| 272 | Skeledirge ex | $5.95 | ~$8 |
| 273 | Quaquaval ex | $5.96 | ~$8 |
| 276 | Super Rod | $5.84 | ~$7 |
| 275 | Ting-Lu ex | $4.58 | ~$6 |
| 277 | Superior Energy Retrieval | $4.00 | ~$5 |
Pool average: $6.75 USD. Pool median: $5.96 USD. The gold Energy cards are the most sought-after HRs — the Grass Energy at $10.39 is the standout. These are modest values compared to typical Hyper Rares in other sets.
Special Illustration Rares (★★ SIR) — #256–270
15 cards. The main full-art chase tier for ex Pokémon and key trainers. Estimated pull rate approximately 1 in 32 packs (3.13%). The Iono SIR (#269) is the most coveted, reflecting the character's enormous fan following.
| # | Card | Price (USD) | Price (SGD est.) |
|---|---|---|---|
| 269 | Iono | $56.65 | ~$73 |
| 262 | Tinkaton ex | $55.25 | ~$71 |
| 259 | Chi-Yu ex | $45.99 | ~$59 |
| 256 | Meowscarada ex | $29.30 | ~$38 |
| 258 | Skeledirge ex | $28.92 | ~$37 |
| 261 | Chien-Pao ex | $24.12 | ~$31 |
| 268 | Grusha | $19.96 | ~$26 |
| 265 | Boss's Orders (Ghetsis) | $17.81 | ~$23 |
| 270 | Saguaro | $15.44 | ~$20 |
| 257 | Wo-Chien ex | $14.85 | ~$19 |
| 260 | Quaquaval ex | $14.00 | ~$18 |
| 263 | Ting-Lu ex | $12.99 | ~$17 |
| 264 | Squawkabilly ex | $10.59 | ~$14 |
| 266 | Dendra | $9.53 | ~$12 |
| 267 | Giacomo | $5.00 | ~$6 |
Pool average: $24.03 USD. Pool median: $17.81 USD. The top 3 SIRs (Iono, Tinkaton ex, Chi-Yu ex) make up nearly 60% of the pool's total value. If you pull an SIR, the median outcome is ~$18 — decent but not exceptional.
Illustration Rares (★ IR) — #194–229
36 cards. Expected roughly once every 13 packs (7.69%). This is Paldea Evolved's most impactful rarity tier — an unusually high average value driven by the legendary Magikarp IR and several beloved Pokémon illustrations.
| # | Card | Price (USD) | Notes |
|---|---|---|---|
| 203 | Magikarp | $345.00 | The chase IR — legendary composition |
| 211 | Raichu | $97.00 | Fan favourite Kanto Pokémon |
| 226 | Maushold | $87.00 | Internet darling of SV era |
| 222 | Tyranitar | $71.29 | |
| 204 | Marill | $49.08 | |
| 201 | Fuecoco | $49.70 | |
| 196 | Sprigatito | $45.47 | |
| 210 | Baxcalibur | $26.46 | |
| 216 | Tinkatink | $25.14 | |
| 194 | Heracross | $24.40 | |
| 219 | Sudowoodo | $23.44 | |
| 208 | Frigibax | $19.57 | |
| 205 | Eiscue | $17.34 | |
| 202 | Crocalor | $15.01 | |
| 199 | Fletchinder | $15.00 | |
| 218 | Paldean Tauros | $15.36 | |
| 206 | Quaxly | $16.63 | |
| 197 | Floragato | $17.88 | |
| 209 | Arctibax | $16.12 | |
| 217 | Tinkatuff | $33.37 | |
| 212 | Mismagius | $37.50 | |
| 213 | Gothorita | $11.04 | |
| 221 | Paldean Wooper | $11.89 | |
| 228 | Farigiraf | $11.42 | |
| 225 | Rookidee | $11.32 | |
| 195 | Tropius | $10.18 | |
| 227 | Flamigo | $9.90 | |
| 198 | Bramblin | $9.50 | |
| 214 | Sandygast | $8.49 | |
| 207 | Quaxwell | $8.26 | |
| 229 | Dudunsparce | $7.90 | |
| 223 | Grafaiai | $7.03 | |
| 215 | Rabsca | $6.03 | |
| 224 | Orthworm | $5.99 | |
| 220 | Nacli | $5.81 |
Pool average: $32.91 USD. Pool median: $15.74 USD. The massive gap between average and median tells the whole story — the Magikarp IR pulls the mean up by ~$9 on its own. The typical IR pull is worth $8–$25, which is solid but does not come close to recovering a $13.54 market pack price.
Ultra Rares (★★ UR) — #230–255
26 cards. Full-art ex Pokémon (#230–247) and trainer full-arts (#248–255). Expected roughly once every 15 packs (6.67%). This is the largest UR pool in the SV series at this point.
| # | Card | Price (USD) |
|---|---|---|
| 239 | Dedenne ex | $14.74 |
| 254 | Iono | $11.95 |
| 248 | Boss's Orders (Ghetsis) | $11.18 |
| 240 | Tinkaton ex | $9.14 |
| 238 | Slowking ex | $5.77 |
| 242 | Annihilape ex | $4.71 |
| 253 | Grusha | $3.97 |
| 231 | Meowscarada ex | $3.95 |
| 237 | Bellibolt ex | $3.95 |
| 234 | Chi-Yu ex | $3.69 |
| 236 | Chien-Pao ex | $3.21 |
| 241 | Lycanroc ex | $2.90 |
| 250 | Dendra | $2.87 |
| 235 | Quaquaval ex | $2.26 |
| 232 | Wo-Chien ex | $2.00 |
| 233 | Skeledirge ex | $2.56 |
| 244 | Paldean Clodsire ex | $2.50 |
| 246 | Noivern ex | $2.98 |
| 251 | Falkner | $1.99 |
| 247 | Squawkabilly ex | $1.99 |
| 230 | Forretress ex | $1.98 |
| 252 | Giacomo | $1.66 |
| 243 | Ting-Lu ex | $1.64 |
| 245 | Copperajah ex | $1.58 |
| 249 | Clavell | $1.55 |
| 255 | Saguaro | $1.68 |
Pool average: $4.17 USD. Most UR pulls are worth $1.55–$5. The Dedenne ex (#239) at $14.74 and Iono UR (#254) at $11.95 are the standouts.
Double Rares (★★ ex) — 17 cards in main set
17 ex Pokémon in the base numbered set (#001–193). Expected roughly once every 7 packs (14.3%). These are the standard ex cards in Paldea Evolved — mostly worth $0.67–$3.86, with Pikachu ex (#63) as the notable exception.
| # | Card | Price (USD) |
|---|---|---|
| 63 | Pikachu ex | $3.86 |
| 93 | Dedenne ex | $1.83 |
| 61 | Chien-Pao ex | $1.52 |
| 52 | Quaquaval ex | $1.42 |
| 127 | Ting-Lu ex | $1.14 |
| 169 | Squawkabilly ex | $1.11 |
| 40 | Chi-Yu ex | $1.11 |
| 86 | Slowking ex | $1.22 |
| 15 | Meowscarada ex | $1.29 |
| 130 | Paldean Clodsire ex | $1.29 |
| 117 | Lycanroc ex | $1.24 |
| 37 | Skeledirge ex | $1.25 |
| 27 | Wo-Chien ex | $1.00 |
| 79 | Bellibolt ex | $0.99 |
| 153 | Noivern ex | $0.99 |
| 150 | Copperajah ex | $0.93 |
| 5 | Forretress ex | $0.67 |
Pool average: $1.34 USD. These are consistent but low-value hits. Pikachu ex is the notable exception — Pikachu cards tend to hold value across sets.
Chase Cards: Top 10 by Value
The most striking feature of Paldea Evolved's top 10: 7 of the 10 highest-value cards are Illustration Rares, not SIRs. The IR pool in this set is exceptionally strong — Magikarp, Raichu, Maushold, and Tyranitar all command prices that rival or exceed many SIRs from other sets. Iono and Tinkaton ex carry the SIR tier, but they are outclassed by the IR ceiling.
Expected Value Per Pack
Using current PriceCharting market prices weighted by community pull rate data (8,000+ packs), here is where the expected value of each Paldea Evolved pack comes from:
| Component | Pull Rate | Pool Avg (USD) | EV Contribution |
|---|---|---|---|
| Bulk (commons + uncommons) | 100% | $0.80 | $0.80 |
| Reverse Holo slot | 100% | $1.60 | $1.60 |
| Standard Rare (★) | 66.5% | $0.60 | $0.40 |
| Double Rare (★★ ex) | 14.3% | $1.34 | $0.19 |
| Ultra Rare (#230–255) | 6.7% | $4.17 | $0.28 |
| Hyper Rare (#271–279) | 1.75% | $6.75 | $0.12 |
| SIR (#256–270) | 3.1% | $24.03 | $0.75 |
| Illustration Rare (#194–229) | 7.7% | $32.91 | $2.53 |
Key observations from this table:
- Illustration Rares contribute $2.53 of $6.67 EV — 38%. This is extraordinary: IRs normally drive 20–25% of EV in SV sets. The Magikarp IR ($345) is the reason — it contributes ~$0.70 EV on its own, roughly as much as the entire UR tier.
- The IR pool average ($32.91) vs median ($15.74) gap is the largest warning sign. If you pull an IR, the median outcome is $15.74 — not the $33 average. Magikarp is pulling the mean far above the typical experience.
- SIRs contribute only $0.75 EV — less than the IR slot. This is because the SIR pool average ($24) is not exceptional relative to the IR pool, and the IR rate (7.7%) is higher than SIR rate (3.1%).
- Hyper Rares contribute just $0.12 — these gold-treatment cards are surprisingly cheap for a premium rarity slot, averaging only $6.75 each.
Monte Carlo: Win vs Loss Odds
The EV table above gives averages. What actually happens to individual openers is driven by variance. The charts below show results from 100,000 simulated openings, drawing from the actual card pool prices and pull rates — not averages.
Each bar = $50 profit/loss range. The +$350 cluster represents hitting the Magikarp IR (#203) plus other strong hits. 100,000 simulated openings. Prices from PriceCharting (USD), May 2026.
Win / Loss summary across all formats
| Scenario | Cost | Win % | Loss % | Median P/L | P5 (bad luck) | P95 (good luck) | Avg Return |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Pack — retail (~$5.08) | $5.08 | 17.0% | 83.0% | −$2 | −$3 | +$15 | 1.31× |
| Bundle — retail (~$30.48) | $30.48 | 42.3% | 57.7% | −$3 | −$13 | +$68 | 1.31× |
| Box — retail (~$182.88) | $182.88 | 67.7% | 32.3% | +$27 | −$45 | +$341 | 1.31× |
| Pack — market (~$13.54) | $13.54 | 8.7% | 91.3% | −$10 | −$11 | +$6 | 0.50× |
| Bundle — market (~$96.00) | $96.00 | 5.2% | 94.8% | −$69 | −$79 | +$3 | 0.42× |
| Box — market (~$459.18) | $459.18 | 7.5% | 92.5% | −$249 | −$321 | +$65 | 0.52× |
P5 = the outcome in the worst 5% of openings. P95 = the outcome in the best 5%. Win = profit > $0. Simulation: 100,000 runs, seed 42.
What these numbers mean in practice:
- The market box at 7.5% win rate and −$249 median is among the worst EV propositions in the SV era. You need to hit the Magikarp IR or multiple strong IRs just to break even. The P95 outcome at market is only +$65 — meaning even in the lucky 5% of box openings, you only make $65 profit.
- At retail, the box improves to 67.7% win rate with a +$27 median — a solid positive outcome. The P95 outcome at retail is +$341, representing a box where the Magikarp IR lands.
- The bundle at market has a 94.8% loss rate and a −$69 median. You are essentially paying $96 for ~$40 in expected cards. The jump in the histogram from +$110 to +$260 is the Magikarp IR appearing in your 6 packs — a roughly 1-in-200 occurrence for a specific bundle.
- Market packs at 0.50× return are the worst format. You recover about 50 cents for every dollar spent.
The Break-Even Price
If the expected value per pack is $6.67 USD, the break-even prices for each product format are:
Singapore context: If you find Paldea Evolved at retail (~SGD $6.50/pack), you are paying below break-even on a per-pack basis (break-even SGD ~$8.54). Retail boxes (~SGD $234 / USD ~$182.88) are similarly well below break-even ($240.20). At Singapore retail, all formats are positive expected value. The challenge is sourcing sealed product at retail — Paldea Evolved has been out since 2023 and is largely sold through secondary channels at elevated prices.
Sensitivity to IR price changes
Because the IR pool drives 38% of EV, IR price movements have a disproportionate impact on break-even prices.
| SIR Price Scenario | EV per Pack | Break-even Bundle (USD) | Break-even Box (USD) |
|---|---|---|---|
| Current prices (May 2026) | $6.67 | ~$40.03 | ~$240.20 |
| SIRs −25% | ~$6.48 | ~$38.88 | ~$233.28 |
| SIRs −50% | ~$6.30 | ~$37.80 | ~$226.80 |
| SIRs −75% | ~$6.11 | ~$36.66 | ~$219.96 |
Even if SIR prices drop 75%, the break-even box only falls to ~$220 — still less than half the current market box price of $459. This set's break-even is relatively resilient to SIR price changes because SIRs only contribute $0.75 of $6.67 EV (11%). The dominant risk is an IR price correction, particularly the Magikarp — if it dropped 50%, EV would fall by approximately $1.25/pack, moving break-even box to ~$195.
What You Should Actually Do
If you want a specific card
Buy the single. Use the tcgTalk price comparison to find the best current Singapore price. For the Magikarp IR at $345, opening packs is mathematically absurd — the expected cost to target it is roughly 468 packs (~$6,300 at market pack price, or 1-in-36 IRs × 1-in-13 packs per IR). For the Iono SIR at $57, buy it directly rather than hoping to pull one in ~32 packs of expensive product.
If you want to open packs
At market prices, do not open Paldea Evolved. The box at $459 returns ~$240 in expected card value — you are handing $219 to the house on average. Even in the lucky P95 box, you only profit $65 at market prices.
If you can source sealed product at or near original retail (~SGD $6.50/pack or $182–234 for a box), the math flips: 67.7% win rate, median +$27 profit, 1.31× expected return. The retail box is a legitimately good value proposition for Paldea Evolved if you can find one.
If you are buying sealed for investment
Paldea Evolved sealed has already appreciated substantially since its 2023 launch. At the current market box price of $459, you need the set to appreciate further to generate a return — the cards inside are worth approximately $240 in expected value, so you are paying a significant premium for the sealed premium itself. Further appreciation is possible but not guaranteed for a 3-year-old set. Compare risk-adjusted returns against newer releases with more upside potential.
If you already have cards to sell
The Magikarp IR (#203) at $345 is the crown jewel and tends to be stable given its cult status. Raichu IR (#211) and Maushold IR (#226) are also well-supported by strong fan bases. The Iono SIR (#269) is the most liquid SIR. These iconic cards have held value well since 2023 — no immediate price pressure unless the set sees a reprint announcement.
Frequently Asked Questions
Is it worth opening Paldea Evolved packs?
At Singapore retail (~SGD $6.50/pack), yes — EV is ~SGD $8.54 per pack (1.31× return) and the retail box hits 67.7% win rate. At market prices (~USD $13.54/pack, $459 box), no — you get back about 50 cents per dollar spent, with 92.5% loss rate for boxes. The Magikarp IR at $345 drives most of the upside; without it or a strong IR pull, essentially every market-price opening session is unprofitable.
What is the most expensive Paldea Evolved card?
The Magikarp Illustration Rare (#203) at approximately USD $345 (~SGD $442). It is one of the most valuable non-legendary Pokémon IRs in the SV era, prized for its iconic composition. Raichu IR (#211) at $97 and Maushold IR (#226) at $87 follow.
How many SIRs are in Paldea Evolved?
15 Special Illustration Rares (#256–270) and 9 Hyper Rares (#271–279), for 24 premium rarity cards above the standard IR tier. The SIR pool is large by SV standards — pull rates are approximately 1 in 32 packs for an SIR.
Why is the Paldea Evolved Magikarp so expensive?
The Magikarp IR (#203) depicts an intimate, beautifully illustrated scene featuring a beloved Pokémon in a composition that resonated strongly with the community at launch. Combined with scarcity (1 of 36 IRs, ~1 in 468 packs), the card has maintained exceptional value since June 2023. Its price of $345 is more typical of a SIR featuring a fan-favourite legendary Pokémon.
What is the cheapest SIR in Paldea Evolved?
Giacomo (#267) at USD $5.00 (~SGD $6) is the current lowest-value SIR. Dendra (#266) at $9.53 is next. Both are trainer-character SIRs from relatively minor characters in the Paldea story.
How does Paldea Evolved compare to other SV sets for pack opening?
At market prices, Paldea Evolved is one of the worst SV sets to open — the 1.9× premium over break-even exceeds most sets in the era. At retail, it is comparable to other early SV sets. Its unique feature is the IR pool: more EV comes from IRs (38%) than SIRs in Paldea Evolved, a reversal of the typical SV pattern. This makes the outcome more binary — pull a good IR and you win; pull a weak IR and you lose badly at market prices.
Disclaimer: All card prices are from PriceCharting market data (USD) as of May 2026 and are indicative of current secondary market rates — they will change. SGD equivalents use an approximate 1.28 exchange rate (May 2026). Pull rates are community estimates from aggregate opening data (8,000+ packs); The Pokémon Company does not publish official pull rates. Monte Carlo results use 100,000 simulated openings, seed 42. Card list sourced from the official Pokémon TCG card list PDF (SV02). This is not financial advice. Verify current prices on tcgTalk or Carousell before making any buying or selling decisions.