Card prices sourced from PriceCharting market data (USD). PHP values use live exchange rates. Destined Rivals market prices are far above mathematical value due to Team Rocket nostalgia premium.
The Short Answer
Destined Rivals is negative expected value at market prices across every format. The box costs ₱ 26,598 at market versus a break-even of ₱ 11,998 — nearly 2.7× above mathematical value. At Philippine retail prices (~₱ 319/pack), all three formats are positive EV at 1.13×.
| Product | Retail Price (PHP) | Market Price (PHP) | Expected Card Value | Return at Retail | Verdict |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Booster Pack | ₱ 319 | ₱ 628 | ₱ 333 | 1.13× | +EV at retail. −EV at market. |
| Booster Bundle (6 packs) | ₱ 1,915 | ₱ 3,707 | ₱ 2,000 | 1.13× | +EV at retail. −EV at market. |
| Booster Box (36 packs) | ₱ 11,490 | ₱ 26,598 | ₱ 11,998 | 1.13× | +EV at retail. −EV at market. |
Card Prices by Rarity
Hyper Rare (HR) — #243–244
Two cards. Estimated pull rate ~1 in 149 packs. Pool average: ₱ 483.
| # | Card | Price (USD) | Price (PHP) |
|---|---|---|---|
| 243 | Jamming Tower | $7.77 | ₱ 488 |
| 244 | Levincia | $7.61 | ₱ 478 |
Special Illustration Rares (★★ SIR) — #228–242
15 cards. Main chase tier. Pull rate ~~1 in 94 packs. Price range: ₱ 1,055 – ₱ 35,724.
| # | Card | Price (USD) | Price (PHP) |
|---|---|---|---|
| 231 | Team Rocket's Mewtwo ex | $484.07 | ₱ 30,414 |
| 232 | Cynthia's Garchomp ex | $201.33 | ₱ 12,650 |
| 230 | Ethan's Ho-Oh ex | $151.12 | ₱ 9,495 |
| 233 | Team Rocket's Nidoking ex | $92.54 | ₱ 5,814 |
| 229 | Team Rocket's Moltres ex | $90.90 | ₱ 5,711 |
| 234 | Team Rocket's Crobat ex | $60.43 | ₱ 3,797 |
| 240 | Team Rocket's Mewtwo ex | $59.99 | ₱ 3,769 |
| 236 | Ethan's Adventure | $35.07 | ₱ 2,203 |
| 241 | Cynthia's Garchomp ex | $28.99 | ₱ 1,821 |
| 235 | Arven's Mabosstiff ex | $28.07 | ₱ 1,764 |
| 238 | Team Rocket's Giovanni | $23.60 | ₱ 1,483 |
| 239 | Ethan's Ho-Oh ex | $22.55 | ₱ 1,417 |
| 237 | Team Rocket's Ariana | $20.19 | ₱ 1,269 |
| 228 | Yanmega ex | $19.67 | ₱ 1,236 |
| 242 | Team Rocket's Crobat ex | $13.68 | ₱ 860 |
Pool average: ₱ 5,580. Pool median: ₱ 2,203. The mean is skewed heavily by Team Rocket's Mewtwo ex — most SIR pulls will land in the ₱ 1,068–₱ 2,513 range.
Illustration Rares (★ IR) — #183–219
37 cards. Expected ~~1 in 12 packs. Price range: ₱ 124 – ₱ 4,086.
| # | Card | Price (USD) | Price (PHP) | Notes |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 193 | Misty's Psyduck | $61.75 | ₱ 3,880 | Top IR — fan favourite |
| 194 | Misty's Lapras | $30.00 | ₱ 1,885 | Strong pull |
| 203 | Team Rocket's Meowth | $26.41 | ₱ 1,659 | |
| 190 | Ethan's Typhlosion | $24.03 | ₱ 1,510 | |
| 213 | Team Rocket's Mewtwo ex | $18.86 | ₱ 1,185 | Ex Pokemon IR |
| 191 | Team Rocket's Houndoom | $14.85 | ₱ 933 | |
| 184 | Cynthia's Roserade | $11.38 | ₱ 715 | |
| 204 | Kangaskhan | $10.78 | ₱ 677 | |
| 185 | Shaymin | $10.47 | ₱ 658 | |
| 192 | Blaziken | $9.99 | ₱ 628 | |
| 189 | Rapidash | $9.41 | ₱ 591 | |
| 199 | Team Rocket's Weezing | $8.95 | ₱ 562 | |
| 200 | Team Rocket's Murkrow | $7.55 | ₱ 474 | |
| 208 | Team Rocket's Moltres ex | $6.13 | ₱ 385 | Ex Pokemon IR |
| 187 | Team Rocket's Spidops | $5.95 | ₱ 374 | |
| 202 | Team Rocket's Raticate | $5.54 | ₱ 348 | |
| 209 | Ethan's Ho-Oh ex | $5.45 | ₱ 342 | Ex Pokemon IR |
| 195 | Clamperl | $5.24 | ₱ 329 | |
| 201 | Zamazenta | $5.19 | ₱ 326 | |
| 215 | Cynthia's Garchomp ex | $5.01 | ₱ 315 | Ex Pokemon IR |
| 219 | Team Rocket's Persian ex | $4.75 | ₱ 298 | Ex Pokemon IR |
| 188 | Hydrapple | $4.31 | ₱ 271 | |
| 183 | Yanma | $4.10 | ₱ 258 | |
| 197 | Rotom | $4.01 | ₱ 252 | |
| 205 | Arven's Greedent | $3.90 | ₱ 245 | |
| 196 | Electrike | $3.90 | ₱ 245 | |
| 216 | Team Rocket's Nidoking ex | $3.89 | ₱ 244 | Ex Pokemon IR |
| 198 | Team Rocket's Orbeetle | $3.35 | ₱ 210 | |
| 217 | Team Rocket's Crobat ex | $3.26 | ₱ 205 | Ex Pokemon IR |
| 186 | Crustle | $2.95 | ₱ 185 | |
| 207 | Arboliva ex | $2.50 | ₱ 157 | Ex Pokemon IR |
| 210 | Cetitan ex | $1.87 | ₱ 117 | Ex Pokemon IR |
| 218 | Arven's Mabosstiff ex | $1.77 | ₱ 111 | Ex Pokemon IR |
| 212 | Electivire ex | $1.65 | ₱ 104 | Ex Pokemon IR |
| 206 | Yanmega ex | $1.56 | ₱ 98 | Ex Pokemon IR |
| 214 | Regirock ex | $1.50 | ₱ 94 | Ex Pokemon IR |
| 211 | Dondozo ex | $1.25 | ₱ 79 | Ex Pokemon IR |
Pool average: ₱ 566. Pool median: ₱ 326. Most IR pulls land in the ₱ 188–₱ 440 range.
Ultra Rares — #220–227
8 full-art trainer cards. Pull rate ~~1 in 16 packs. Pool average: ₱ 278.
| # | Card | Price (USD) | Price (PHP) |
|---|---|---|---|
| 226 | Team Rocket's Petrel | $9.00 | ₱ 565 |
| 225 | Team Rocket's Giovanni | $6.68 | ₱ 420 |
| 224 | Team Rocket's Ariana | $4.58 | ₱ 288 |
| 227 | Team Rocket's Proton | $3.60 | ₱ 226 |
| 221 | Ethan's Adventure | $3.45 | ₱ 217 |
| 223 | Team Rocket's Archer | $3.34 | ₱ 210 |
| 220 | Emcee's Hype | $2.46 | ₱ 155 |
| 222 | Judge | $2.26 | ₱ 142 |
Double Rares (★★ ex) — Main Set
17 ex cards. Pull rate ~~1 in 5 packs. Pool average: ₱ 66.
| # | Card | Price (USD) | Price (PHP) |
|---|---|---|---|
| 81 | Team Rocket's Mewtwo ex | $1.61 | ₱ 101 |
| 104 | Cynthia's Garchomp ex | $1.40 | ₱ 88 |
| 136 | Marnie's Grimmsnarl ex | $1.30 | ₱ 82 |
| 31 | Team Rocket's Moltres ex | $1.28 | ₱ 80 |
| 119 | Team Rocket's Nidoking ex | $1.19 | ₱ 75 |
| 145 | Steven's Metagross ex | $1.17 | ₱ 74 |
| 23 | Arboliva ex | $1.17 | ₱ 74 |
| 150 | Team Rocket's Persian ex | $1.09 | ₱ 68 |
| 122 | Team Rocket's Crobat ex | $1.00 | ₱ 63 |
| 66 | Dondozo ex | $0.99 | ₱ 62 |
| 69 | Electivire ex | $0.99 | ₱ 62 |
| 39 | Ethan's Ho-Oh ex | $0.96 | ₱ 60 |
| 139 | Arven's Mabosstiff ex | $0.75 | ₱ 47 |
| 3 | Yanmega ex | $0.75 | ₱ 47 |
| 25 | Rabsca ex | $0.73 | ₱ 46 |
| 65 | Cetitan ex | $0.73 | ₱ 46 |
| 101 | Regirock ex | $0.68 | ₱ 43 |
Chase Cards: Top 10 by Value
Team Rocket's Mewtwo ex appears across four rarities: SIR #231 (₱ 35,724), SIR #240 (₱ 4,051), IR #213 (₱ 1,659), and DR #81 (₱ 172).
Expected Value Per Pack
Using current PriceCharting market prices weighted by pull rates from ~8,000 documented pack openings:
| Component | Pull Rate | Pool Avg (USD) | EV Contribution |
|---|---|---|---|
| Bulk (commons + uncommons) | 100% | $0.80 | $0.80 |
| Reverse Holo slot | 100% | $1.60 | $1.60 |
| Standard Rare (★) | 63.7% | $1.06 | $0.68 |
| Double Rare (★★ ex) | 20.0% | $1.05 | $0.21 |
| Illustration Rare (★ IR) | 8.33% | $9.01 | $0.75 |
| Ultra Rare (#220–227) | 6.25% | $4.42 | $0.28 |
| SIR (#228–242) | 1.06% | $88.81 | $0.94 |
| Hyper Rare (#243–244) | 0.67% | $7.69 | $0.05 |
Monte Carlo: Win vs Loss Odds
Results from 100,000 simulated openings drawing from actual card pool prices and pull rates. Simulation prices are in USD; PHP values depend on current exchange rates.
Each bar = $50 profit/loss range. ··· = empty gap in outcomes. The +$400–$650 cluster represents hitting Team Rocket's Mewtwo ex SIR (~$484). 100,000 simulated openings. Prices from PriceCharting (USD), September 2026.
Win / Loss summary across all formats
| Scenario | Cost (USD) | Win % | Loss % | Median P/L | P5 (bad luck) | P95 (good luck) | Avg Return |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Pack — retail (~$5.08) | $5.08 | 13% | 87% | −$2 | −$2 | +$5 | 1.02× |
| Bundle — retail (~$30.48) | $30.48 | 21% | 79% | −$7 | −$10 | +$27 | 1.05× |
| Box — retail (~$182.88) | $182.88 | 31.6% | 68.4% | −$21 | −$50 | +$161 | 1.04× |
| Pack — market (~$9.99) | $9.99 | 5.2% | 94.8% | −$7 | −$7 | +$0 | 0.53× |
| Bundle — market (~$59.00) | $59 | 4.8% | 95.2% | −$36 | −$39 | −$2 | 0.54× |
| Box — market (~$423.34) | $423.34 | 2.9% | 97.1% | −$261 | −$291 | −$79 | 0.45× |
P5 = worst 5% of openings. P95 = best 5%. Win = profit > $0. Simulation: 100,000 runs, seed 42.
The Break-Even Price
What You Should Actually Do
If you want a specific card
Buy the single. Use tcgTalk price comparison to find the best current price. For Team Rocket's Mewtwo ex SIR at ₱ 35,724, opening packs to find it is impractical — the expected cost is ~94 packs × 15 = ~1,410 packs.
If you want to open packs
The retail box is the only defensible format: 41.4% win rate and 1.13× return. Look for retail prices at Datablitz / Game One / Shopee PH / Lazada PH. Do not open at market prices — the market box at ₱ 26,598 has a 97.3% loss rate and a negative P95.
If you already hold sealed product
Destined Rivals sealed at market prices (₱ 26,598/box) is ~2.7× above the mathematical value floor (₱ 11,998). Sealed premiums typically compress as supply increases. Retail is the only justifiable entry point for opening.
Buy Destined Rivals on TCGPlayer
Frequently Asked Questions
Is it worth opening Destined Rivals packs in the Philippines?
At retail (~₱ 319/pack), technically yes at 1.13× EV — but the median outcome is a small loss in every format. At market prices (₱ 628/pack), opening is 0.46× EV — deeply negative. For most collectors, buying singles is better value.
What is the most expensive Destined Rivals card?
Team Rocket's Mewtwo ex SIR (#231) at approximately USD $568.58 (₱ 35,724). Cynthia's Garchomp ex SIR (#232) is second at ₱ 15,550. Ethan's Ho-Oh ex SIR (#230) is third at ₱ 10,598.
How many SIRs are in Destined Rivals?
15 Special Illustration Rares (#228–242) and 2 Hyper Rares (#243–244). With 15 SIRs in the pool, most SIR pulls will land in the ₱ 1,068–₱ 2,513 range rather than the pool average of ₱ 6,408.
Why is the Destined Rivals market box so expensive?
The set features Team Rocket, Cynthia, Misty, and Ethan alongside new SV rival mechanics. This nostalgia premium has driven sealed demand well above card value fundamentals. The market box at ~₱ 26,598 is priced at 2.7× the mathematical break-even of ~₱ 11,998.
Disclaimer: All card prices from PriceCharting market data (USD) as of September 2026. PHP values use live exchange rates. Pull rates are community estimates from ~8,000 documented pack openings. Monte Carlo uses 100,000 simulations, seed 42. This is not financial advice.