Card prices are sourced from PriceCharting market data (USD). PHP values use a live exchange rate. Prices reflect current secondary market rates and will change as the set ages.
The Short Answer
At secondary-market prices, none of the Chaos Rising formats are profitable: the booster box at market (~USD $188.75) now sits just above the break-even price (~USD $184.87), so box opening at market is essentially break-even and marginally negative (0.98×). Individual packs and bundles at market price are clearly negative EV. At retail prices, all three formats are roughly break-even to marginally positive EV (~1.01×).
| Product | Retail Price (PHP) | Market Price (PHP) | Expected Card Value | Return at Retail | Verdict |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Booster Pack | ₱313 | ₱432 | ₱317 | 1.39× | +EV at retail. −EV at market. |
| Booster Bundle (6 packs) | ₱1,880 | ₱2,390 | ₱1,900 | 1.39× | +EV at retail. −EV at market. |
| Booster Box (36 packs) | ₱11,278 | ₱11,640 | ₱11,401 | 1.39× | +EV at retail AND market. |
The market box, explained: The market box price (₱11,640) sits right around the mathematical break-even (₱11,401). Last cycle the box traded below break-even and was a rare positive-EV opening; this month card prices have softened enough that the box is now a coin-flip at market (0.98× expected return). The median outcome is still a loss — you need at least one SIR to pull ahead.
Card Prices by Rarity
Chaos Rising (ME04) has six rarity tiers above common, with 122 total cards. The set is compact compared to Ascended Heroes — only 6 SIRs and 1 Mega Hyper Rare.
Mega Hyper Rare (◇) — #122
One card. The rarest printing in the set. Estimated pull rate approximately 1 in 1,260 packs.
| # | Card | Price (USD) | Price (PHP) |
|---|---|---|---|
| 122 | Mega Greninja ex | $199.25 | ₱12,288 |
Special Illustration Rares (★★ SIR) — #116–121
6 cards. The main chase tier. Estimated pull rate approximately 1 in 101 packs. Price range: ₱1,418–₱14,269.
| # | Card | Price (USD) | Price (PHP) |
|---|---|---|---|
| 116 | Mega Greninja ex | $231.37 | ₱14,269 |
| 119 | Cinccino ex | $63.39 | ₱3,909 |
| 118 | Mega Dragalge ex | $39.00 | ₱2,405 |
| 117 | Mega Floette ex | $30.75 | ₱1,896 |
| 120 | AZ's Tranquility | $27.71 | ₱1,709 |
| 121 | Roxie's Performance | $23.00 | ₱1,418 |
Pool average: ₱4,268. Pool median: ₱2,151. The mean is heavily skewed by Mega Greninja ex SIR — most SIR pulls are worth ₱2,343–₱5,674, not the pool average.
Illustration Rares (★ IR) — #87–97
11 cards. Expected roughly once every 9 packs. A compact IR pool with solid consistent value across the board.
| # | Card | Price (USD) | Price (PHP) | Notes |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 88 | Froakie | $10.54 | ₱650 | Chase IR — fan favourite |
| 91 | Xerneas | $10.00 | ₱617 | |
| 89 | Frogadier | $9.81 | ₱605 | |
| 90 | Ampharos | $8.40 | ₱518 | |
| 87 | Chespin | $5.32 | ₱328 | |
| 93 | Crobat | $4.03 | ₱249 | |
| 96 | Tauros | $4.00 | ₱247 | |
| 95 | Sliggoo | $3.25 | ₱200 | |
| 92 | Claydol | $3.25 | ₱200 | |
| 94 | Metang | $3.00 | ₱185 | |
| 97 | Watchog | $2.00 | ₱123 |
Pool average: ₱356. Pool median: ₱249. The top 4 IRs (Froakie, Frogadier, Xerneas, Ampharos) cluster tightly at ₱1,172–₱1,418 — solid pulls.
Ultra Rares (★★) — #98–115
18 cards. Full-art ex and trainer cards. Expected roughly once per 12 packs (8.3%).
| # | Card | Price (USD) | Price (PHP) |
|---|---|---|---|
| 100 | Mega Greninja ex | $13.00 | ₱802 |
| 114 | Surfing Beach | $4.99 | ₱308 |
| 98 | Beedrill ex | $4.83 | ₱298 |
| 109 | Jumbo Ice Cream | $4.64 | ₱286 |
| 105 | Cinccino ex | $4.50 | ₱278 |
| 104 | Mega Dragalge ex | $4.02 | ₱248 |
| 113 | Special Red Card | $4.00 | ₱247 |
| 107 | Emma | $3.73 | ₱230 |
| 111 | Prism Tower | $3.50 | ₱216 |
| 101 | Mega Floette ex | $3.49 | ₱215 |
| 99 | Mega Pyroar ex | $3.44 | ₱212 |
| 112 | Roxie's Performance | $3.25 | ₱200 |
| 106 | AZ's Tranquility | $3.23 | ₱199 |
| 103 | Cobalion ex | $2.92 | ₱180 |
| 108 | Energy Retrieval | $2.89 | ₱178 |
| 110 | Philippe | $2.35 | ₱145 |
| 102 | Gourgeist ex | $2.23 | ₱138 |
| 115 | Tool Scrapper | $2.01 | ₱124 |
Pool average: ₱250.
Double Rares (★★ ex) — #3, 15, 22, 35, 41, 48, 55, 64, 65, 73
10 ex and Mega ex cards. Expected roughly once every 5 packs (20%). Pool average: ₱88.
Chase Cards: Top 10 by Value
Mega Greninja ex dominates the value landscape at every rarity — SIR (#116), Hyper Rare (#122), Ultra Rare (#100), and Double Rare (#22) versions all exist in this set.
Expected Value Per Pack
| Component | Pull Rate | Pool Avg (USD) | EV Contribution |
|---|---|---|---|
| Bulk (commons + uncommons) | 100% | $0.80 | $0.80 |
| Reverse Holo slot | 100% | $1.60 | $1.60 |
| Standard Rare (★) | 59.5% | $1.05 | $0.62 |
| Double Rare (★★ ex) | 20.0% | $1.43 | $0.29 |
| Illustration Rare (★ IR) | 11.1% | $5.78 | $0.64 |
| Ultra Rare (#98–115) | 8.3% | $4.06 | $0.34 |
| SIR (#116–121) | 0.99% | $69.20 | $0.69 |
| Mega Hyper Rare (#122) | 0.079% | $199.25 | $0.16 |
Monte Carlo: Win vs Loss Odds
Results from 100,000 simulated openings using real card pool prices and pull rates.
Each bar = $50 profit/loss range. ··· represents an empty gap in outcomes. 100,000 simulated openings. Prices from PriceCharting (USD), August 2026.
Win / Loss summary across all formats
| Scenario | Cost (USD) | Win % | Loss % | Median P/L | P5 (bad luck) | P95 (good luck) | Avg Return |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Pack — retail (~$5.08) | $5.08 | 18.1% | 81.9% | −$2 | −$2 | +$6 | 1.01× |
| Bundle — retail (~$30.48) | $30.48 | 23.1% | 76.9% | −$6 | −$10 | +$20 | 1.01× |
| Box — retail (~$182.88) | $182.88 | 25.3% | 74.7% | −$21 | −$44 | +$195 | 1.01× |
| Pack — market (~$7.01) | $7.01 | 7.9% | 92.1% | −$4 | −$4 | +$4 | 0.73× |
| Bundle — market (~$38.76) | $38.76 | 8.5% | 91.5% | −$14 | −$18 | +$12 | 0.81× |
| Box — market (~$188.75) | $188.75 | 21.4% | 78.6% | −$27 | −$50 | +$189 | 0.98× |
The Break-Even Price
What You Should Actually Do
If you want a specific card
Buy the single. Use the tcgTalk price comparison to find the best current price. For the Mega Greninja ex SIR at ₱14,269, opening packs to pull it is not realistic — the expected cost is roughly 606 packs.
If you want to open packs
The retail box is the best format: 25.3% win rate, median P/L of −$21, and 1.01× expected return — roughly break-even now that EV has softened. At market the box is essentially break-even (0.98×) — no longer the positive-EV opportunity it was last cycle. Compare current box prices on Shopee PH / Lazada / local card shops in Metro Manila before buying.
If you are buying sealed for investment
Chaos Rising sealed at retail is roughly break-even to marginally positive EV. Lower hype versus Ascended Heroes means sealed prices haven't inflated as aggressively — a risk (slower appreciation) and an opportunity (lower entry cost). Booster boxes are the preferred format.
If you already have cards to sell
The Mega Greninja ex SIR at ₱14,269 is the crown jewel. SIR prices typically soften 25–40% within 3 months of release. The IR cards (Froakie, Frogadier, Xerneas, Ampharos) are more stable at their moderate price points.
Buy Chaos Rising on TCGPlayer
Frequently Asked Questions
Is it worth opening Chaos Rising packs in the Philippines?
At retail (~₱313/pack), EV is ₱317 (~1.01× return) — roughly break-even. The market box (~₱11,640) now sits just above break-even (0.98×). Individual packs and bundles at market are negative EV. The median is still a loss in all formats.
What is the most expensive Chaos Rising card?
Mega Greninja ex SIR (#116) at approximately USD $231.37 (₱14,269). The Mega Hyper Rare Mega Greninja ex (#122) at USD $199.25 (₱12,288) is second most valuable.
How many SIRs are in Chaos Rising?
6 Special Illustration Rares (#116–121) and 1 Mega Hyper Rare (#122) — a much smaller SIR pool than Ascended Heroes (19 SIRs + 2 Hyper Rares).
How does Chaos Rising compare to Ascended Heroes for pack opening?
Chaos Rising has lower EV per pack (USD $5.14) but also lower product prices, with a concentrated SIR pool (6 cards, top card ~$231) versus Ascended Heroes' much wider spread. Overall, Chaos Rising has lower variance — fewer jackpot wins but also fewer catastrophic bust sessions.
Disclaimer: All card prices are from PriceCharting market data (USD) as of August 2026. PHP values use a live exchange rate. Pull rates are community estimates from Mega Evolution series aggregate opening data. Monte Carlo uses 100,000 simulated openings, seed 42. This is not financial advice.