Card prices are sourced from PriceCharting market data (USD). PHP values use a live exchange rate. Prices reflect current secondary market rates — Pitch Black is a fresh release (17 July 2026), so expect the top-end Mega Darkrai ex cards to move quickly as the set settles.
The Short Answer
At retail prices, all three Pitch Black formats are positive expected value (~1.03×). At secondary-market prices, only the booster box holds up: at market (~₱11,186) it sits below the break-even price (~₱12,092), so box opening at market is positive (1.08×). Individual packs and bundles at market price are clearly negative EV.
| Product | Retail Price (PHP) | Market Price (PHP) | Expected Card Value | Return at Retail | Verdict |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Booster Pack | ₱323 | ₱445 | ₱336 | 1.03× | +EV at retail. −EV at market. |
| Booster Bundle (6 packs) | ₱1,939 | ₱2,361 | ₱2,015 | 1.04× | +EV at retail. −EV at market. |
| Booster Box (36 packs) | ₱11,637 | ₱11,186 | ₱12,092 | 1.04× | +EV at retail AND market. |
The market box, explained: The market box price (₱11,186) sits below the mathematical break-even (₱12,092), so on average a box returns about 1.08× at market — a positive edge driven entirely by the Mega Darkrai ex chase. However, the median outcome is still a loss — you need at least one premium Darkrai to pull ahead.
Card Prices by Rarity
Pitch Black (ME05) — the English release of the Japanese Abyss Eye (M5) set — has six rarity tiers above common, with 120 total cards. Like Chaos Rising, it is a compact Mega Evolution set: only 6 SIRs and 1 gold Mega Hyper Rare, which concentrates value heavily into the Mega Darkrai ex chase.
Mega Hyper Rare (◇) — #120
One card. The rarest printing in the set — the gold full-art treatment of Mega Darkrai ex. Estimated pull rate approximately 1 in 1,260 packs.
| # | Card | Price (USD) | Price (PHP) |
|---|---|---|---|
| 120 | Mega Darkrai ex | $189.99 | ₱12,089 |
Special Illustration Rares (★★ SIR) — #114–119
6 cards. The main chase tier. Estimated pull rate approximately 1 in 101 packs. Price range: ₱1,908–₱14,328.
| # | Card | Price (USD) | Price (PHP) |
|---|---|---|---|
| 116 | Mega Darkrai ex | $225.18 | ₱14,328 |
| 117 | Morpeko ex | $89.84 | ₱5,717 |
| 114 | Mega Zeraora ex | $50.71 | ₱3,227 |
| 115 | Mega Chandelure ex | $39.06 | ₱2,485 |
| 119 | Gwynn | $30.68 | ₱1,952 |
| 118 | Gladion's Final Battle | $29.99 | ₱1,908 |
Pool average: ₱4,936. Pool median: ₱2,856. The mean is heavily skewed by the Mega Darkrai ex SIR — most SIR pulls land near the median, not the top card.
Illustration Rares (★ IR) — #85–95
11 cards. Expected roughly once every 9 packs. A compact IR pool — the standouts are Slowbro and Goldeen, both riding Mega Evolution line interest.
| # | Card | Price (USD) | Price (PHP) | Notes |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 90 | Slowbro | $13.50 | ₱859 | Chase IR — Mega Slowbro line interest |
| 87 | Goldeen | $9.25 | ₱589 | |
| 86 | Armarouge | $5.05 | ₱321 | |
| 88 | Primarina | $4.81 | ₱306 | |
| 94 | Toucannon | $4.31 | ₱274 | |
| 91 | Dhelmise | $4.02 | ₱256 | |
| 89 | Manectric | $3.46 | ₱220 | |
| 95 | Silvally | $3.25 | ₱207 | |
| 85 | Fomantis | $2.95 | ₱188 | |
| 93 | Bastiodon | $2.91 | ₱185 | |
| 92 | Thievul | $2.33 | ₱148 |
Pool average: ₱323. Pool median: ₱256. Slowbro (₱1,331) and Goldeen (₱958) sit above the pack, but the pool is otherwise tightly clustered — pulling any IR is a decent outcome.
Ultra Rares (★★) — #96–113
18 cards. Full-art ex and trainer cards. Expected roughly once per 12 packs (8.3%).
| # | Card | Price (USD) | Price (PHP) |
|---|---|---|---|
| 111 | Misty's Vitality | $18.92 | ₱1,204 |
| 101 | Mega Darkrai ex | $12.34 | ₱785 |
| 109 | Gwynn | $8.74 | ₱556 |
| 99 | Mega Chandelure ex | $8.22 | ₱523 |
| 98 | Mega Zeraora ex | $7.25 | ₱461 |
| 103 | Mega Excadrill ex | $6.99 | ₱445 |
| 102 | Morpeko ex | $6.75 | ₱430 |
| 97 | Wailord ex | $4.99 | ₱318 |
| 105 | Crushing Hammer | $4.59 | ₱292 |
| 108 | Gladion's Final Battle | $4.22 | ₱269 |
| 100 | Rampardos ex | $4.07 | ₱259 |
| 104 | Brave Bangle | $3.98 | ₱253 |
| 112 | Rust Syndicate Grunt | $3.76 | ₱239 |
| 96 | Lurantis ex | $3.63 | ₱231 |
| 106 | Dark Bell | $3.55 | ₱226 |
| 110 | Iron Defender | $2.60 | ₱165 |
| 113 | Tremendous Bomb | $2.53 | ₱161 |
| 107 | Energy Switch | $2.24 | ₱143 |
Pool average: ₱387.
Double Rares (★★ ex) — #4, 8, 16, 27, 31, 38, 45, 48, 55, 65
10 ex and Mega ex cards. Expected roughly once every 5 packs (20%). Pool average: ₱84.
Chase Cards: Top 10 by Value
Mega Darkrai ex dominates the value landscape — the SIR (#116) and the gold Hyper Rare (#120) are the two most valuable cards in the set by a wide margin, with a full-art Ultra Rare (#101) and base Double Rare (#48) rounding out the Darkrai chase at every rarity.
Expected Value Per Pack
| Component | Pull Rate | Pool Avg (USD) | EV Contribution |
|---|---|---|---|
| Bulk (commons + uncommons) | 100% | $0.80 | $0.80 |
| Reverse Holo slot | 100% | $1.60 | $1.60 |
| Standard Rare (★) | 59.5% | $1.05 | $0.62 |
| Double Rare (★★ ex) | 20.0% | $1.32 | $0.26 |
| Illustration Rare (★ IR) | 11.1% | $5.08 | $0.56 |
| Ultra Rare (#96–113) | 8.3% | $6.08 | $0.51 |
| SIR (#114–119) | 0.99% | $77.58 | $0.77 |
| Mega Hyper Rare (#120) | 0.079% | $189.99 | $0.15 |
Monte Carlo: Win vs Loss Odds
Results from 100,000 simulated openings using real card pool prices and pull rates.
Each bar = $50 profit/loss range. ··· represents an empty gap in outcomes. 100,000 simulated openings. Prices from PriceCharting (USD), September 2026.
Win / Loss summary across all formats
| Scenario | Cost (USD) | Win % | Loss % | Median P/L | P5 (bad luck) | P95 (good luck) | Avg Return |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Pack — retail (~$5.08) | $5.08 | 18.1% | 81.9% | −$2 | −$2 | +$5 | 1.03× |
| Bundle — retail (~$30.48) | $30.48 | 24% | 76% | −$6 | −$10 | +$25 | 1.04× |
| Box — retail (~$182.88) | $182.88 | 31.1% | 68.9% | −$18 | −$44 | +$191 | 1.04× |
| Pack — market (~$7.00) | $7 | 8.7% | 91.3% | −$4 | −$4 | +$3 | 0.75× |
| Bundle — market (~$37.10) | $37.1 | 12.2% | 87.8% | −$12 | −$16 | +$19 | 0.86× |
| Box — market (~$175.80) | $175.8 | 37% | 63% | −$10 | −$37 | +$198 | 1.08× |
The Break-Even Price
What You Should Actually Do
If you want a specific card
Buy the single. Use the tcgTalk price comparison to find the best current price. For the Mega Darkrai ex SIR at ₱14,328 or the gold Hyper Rare at ₱12,089, opening packs to pull it is not realistic — the expected cost is roughly 606 packs.
If you want to open packs
The retail box is the best format: 31.1% win rate, median result of −$18, and 1.04× expected return. Even at market, the box is positive EV (1.08×) — a thin edge that a small dip in the Mega Darkrai ex price would erase. Compare current box prices on Shopee PH / Lazada / local card shops in Metro Manila before buying.
If you are buying sealed for investment
Pitch Black sealed at retail is positive EV, and the Mega Darkrai ex headliner gives the set genuine long-term appeal — Darkrai is one of the most talked-about chase cards in the Mega Evolution series. Booster boxes are the preferred format. Avoid paying significantly above break-even (~₱12,092) for boxes at market, especially this early when top-card prices are still elevated.
If you already have cards to sell
The Mega Darkrai ex SIR at ₱14,328 and the gold Hyper Rare at ₱12,089 are the set's crown jewels. SIR prices typically soften 25–40% within 3 months of release. The IR cards (Slowbro, Goldeen) are more stable at their moderate price points.
Buy Pitch Black on TCGPlayer
Frequently Asked Questions
Is it worth opening Pitch Black packs in the Philippines?
At retail (~₱323/pack), EV is ₱336 (~1.03× return). The market box (~₱11,186) is also positive EV (1.08×). Individual packs and bundles at market are negative EV. The median is still a loss in all formats.
What is the most expensive Pitch Black card?
Mega Darkrai ex SIR (#116) at approximately USD $225.18 (₱14,328). The gold Mega Hyper Rare Mega Darkrai ex (#120) at USD $189.99 (₱12,089) is second most valuable, with Morpeko ex SIR (#117) at USD $89.84 third.
How many SIRs are in Pitch Black?
6 Special Illustration Rares (#114–119) and 1 gold Mega Hyper Rare (#120) — the same compact SIR pool as sister set Chaos Rising.
What is the cheapest SIR in Pitch Black?
Gladion's Final Battle (#118) at USD $29.99 (₱1,908) is the current lowest-value SIR.
How does Pitch Black compare to Chaos Rising for pack opening?
Both are compact Mega Evolution sets with 6 SIRs + 1 Hyper Rare and the same pull-rate structure. Pitch Black is the more top-heavy of the two — more of its value rides on a single chase card, the Mega Darkrai ex SIR. Overall it has lower variance than the larger Mega Evolution sets — fewer jackpot wins but also fewer catastrophic bust sessions.
Disclaimer: All card prices are from PriceCharting market data (USD) as of September 2026. PHP values use a live exchange rate. Pull rates are community estimates from Mega Evolution series aggregate opening data. Monte Carlo uses 100,000 simulated openings, seed 42. This is not financial advice.