Card prices sourced from PriceCharting market data (USD). PHP values use live exchange rates. Pull rates derived from Mega Evolution series community opening data.
The Short Answer
Mega Evolution (ME01) is a set where the gap between retail and market price matters enormously. At retail (~₱313/pack), EV is 1.10× — slightly positive. At market prices, every format is significantly −EV.
| Product | Retail Price (PHP) | Market Price (PHP) | Expected Card Value | Retail Return | Verdict |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Booster Pack | ₱313 | ₱706 | ₱346 | 1.10× | +EV retail. −EV market. |
| Booster Bundle (6 packs) | ₱1,879 | ₱3,483 | ₱2,079 | 1.10× | +EV retail. −EV market. |
| Booster Box (36 packs) | ₱11,275 | ₱18,987 | ₱12,474 | 1.10× | +EV retail. −EV market. |
Card Prices by Rarity
Mega Hyper Rare (◇) — #187–188
2 cards. The rarest print — ~1 in 1,260 packs. Full gold-art treatment for the two flagship Mega ex cards.
| # | Card | Price (USD) | Price (PHP) |
|---|---|---|---|
| 188 | Mega Lucario ex | $261.37 | ₱16,113 |
| 187 | Mega Gardevoir ex | $211.58 | ₱13,044 |
Pool average: ₱14,579.
Special Illustration Rares (★★ SIR) — #177–186
10 cards. The primary chase tier. ~1 in 101 packs. Price range ₱1,192–₱13,563.
| # | Card | Price (USD) | Price (PHP) |
|---|---|---|---|
| 179 | Mega Lucario ex | $213.57 | ₱13,167 |
| 178 | Mega Gardevoir ex | $186.26 | ₱11,483 |
| 177 | Mega Venusaur ex | $153.14 | ₱9,441 |
| 181 | Mega Latias ex | $85.00 | ₱5,240 |
| 184 | Lillie's Determination | $70.35 | ₱4,337 |
| 180 | Mega Absol ex | $65.78 | ₱4,055 |
| 182 | Mega Kangaskhan ex | $59.76 | ₱3,684 |
| 183 | Acerola's Mischief | $31.73 | ₱1,956 |
| 186 | Wally's Compassion | $22.01 | ₱1,357 |
| 185 | Lt. Surge's Bargain | $17.72 | ₱1,092 |
Pool average: ₱5,581. Pool median: ₱4,196.
Illustration Rares (★ IR) — #133–154
22 cards. Expected ~1 in 9 packs. Bulbasaur (#133) and Ivysaur (#134) are the top chase IRs.
| # | Card | Price (USD) | Price (PHP) | Note |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 133 | Bulbasaur | $24.00 | ₱1,480 | Chase IR |
| 134 | Ivysaur | $21.25 | ₱1,310 | |
| 146 | Marshadow | $16.00 | ₱986 | |
| 138 | Vulpix | $16.00 | ₱986 | |
| 150 | Steelix | $7.78 | ₱480 | |
| 136 | Shuckle | $7.31 | ₱451 | |
| 135 | Exeggutor | $6.07 | ₱374 | |
| 154 | Stufful | $5.50 | ₱339 | |
| 139 | Litleo | $4.64 | ₱286 | |
| 137 | Ninjask | $4.13 | ₱255 | |
| 151 | Spearow | $4.00 | ₱247 | |
| 153 | Gumshoos | $4.00 | ₱247 | |
| 143 | Helioptile | $3.63 | ₱224 | |
| 148 | Spiritomb | $3.13 | ₱193 | |
| 152 | Delibird | $3.07 | ₱189 | |
| 144 | Shedinja | $3.01 | ₱186 | |
| 145 | Houndstone | $2.99 | ₱184 | |
| 142 | Inteleon | $2.70 | ₱166 | |
| 140 | Snover | $2.50 | ₱154 | |
| 149 | Shroodle | $2.42 | ₱149 | |
| 141 | Clawitzer | $2.17 | ₱134 | |
| 147 | Garganacl | $1.84 | ₱113 |
Pool average: ₱415. Pool median: ₱247.
Ultra Rares (★★ UR) — #155–176
22 cards. Expected ~1 in 12 packs. Lillie's Determination (#169) at ₱1,258 and Mega Lucario ex (#160) at ₱947 are the best pulls.
| # | Card | Price (USD) | Price (PHP) |
|---|---|---|---|
| 169 | Lillie's Determination | $19.76 | ₱1,218 |
| 160 | Mega Lucario ex | $14.85 | ₱916 |
| 155 | Mega Venusaur ex | $13.96 | ₱861 |
| 164 | Mega Kangaskhan ex | $5.94 | ₱366 |
| 159 | Mega Gardevoir ex | $5.79 | ₱357 |
| 167 | Buddy-Buddy Poffin | $5.76 | ₱355 |
| 163 | Mega Latias ex | $5.72 | ₱353 |
| 161 | Mega Absol ex | $5.59 | ₱345 |
| 173 | Night Stretcher | $4.39 | ₱271 |
| 175 | Rare Candy | $4.03 | ₱248 |
| 176 | Wally's Compassion | $3.91 | ₱241 |
| 165 | Acerola's Mischief | $3.85 | ₱237 |
| 158 | Mega Manectric ex | $3.31 | ₱204 |
| 168 | Fighting Gong | $3.06 | ₱189 |
| 166 | Air Balloon | $2.97 | ₱183 |
| 174 | Premium Power Pro | $2.88 | ₱178 |
| 162 | Mega Mawile ex | $2.85 | ₱176 |
| 156 | Mega Camerupt ex | $2.82 | ₱174 |
| 157 | Mega Abomasnow ex | $2.60 | ₱160 |
| 172 | Mystery Garden | $2.19 | ₱135 |
| 170 | Lt. Surge's Bargain | $2.00 | ₱123 |
| 171 | Mega Signal | $1.96 | ₱121 |
Pool average: ₱337.
Double Rares (★★ ex) — #3, 22, 36, 50, 60, 77, 86, 94, 100, 104
10 Mega ex cards. Expected ~1 in 5 packs. Pool average: ₱91.
Chase Cards: Top 10 by Value
Expected Value per Pack
| Component | Pull Rate | Pool Avg (USD) | EV Contribution |
|---|---|---|---|
| Bulk (commons + uncommons) | 100% | $0.80 | $0.80 |
| Reverse Holo slot | 100% | $1.60 | $1.60 |
| Standard Rare (★) | 59.5% | $1.07 | $0.64 |
| Double Rare (★★ Mega ex) | 20.0% | $1.48 | $0.30 |
| Illustration Rare (★ IR) | 11.1% | $6.73 | $0.75 |
| Ultra Rare (#155–176) | 8.3% | $5.46 | $0.46 |
| SIR (#177–186) | 0.99% | $90.53 | $0.90 |
| Mega Hyper Rare (#187–188) | 0.079% | $236.48 | $0.19 |
Monte Carlo: Win vs Loss Odds
The chart below shows results from 100,000 simulated openings. Simulation prices are in USD; your PHP value depends on the current exchange rate.
Each bar = $50 profit/loss range. Market box price ($308) is far above break-even ($202). 100,000 simulated openings. Prices from PriceCharting (USD), June 2026.
Win / Loss Summary across all formats
| Scenario | Cost (USD) | Win % | Loss % | Median P/L | P5 | P95 | Avg Return |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Pack — retail (~$5.08) | $5.08 | 17% | 83% | −$2 | −$2 | +$5 | 1.11× |
| Bundle — retail (~$30.48) | $30.48 | 25.9% | 74.1% | −$6 | −$10 | +$31 | 1.11× |
| Box — retail (~$182.88) | $182.88 | 39.8% | 60.2% | −$10 | −$43 | +$197 | 1.11× |
| Pack — market (~$11.45) | $11.45 | 4.2% | 95.8% | −$8 | −$8 | −$2 | 0.50× |
| Bundle — market (~$56.49) | $56.49 | 5.7% | 94.3% | −$32 | −$36 | +$7 | 0.60× |
| Box — market (~$307.98) | $307.98 | 12.1% | 87.9% | −$135 | −$168 | +$73 | 0.66× |
Break-Even Prices
Retail prices in the Philippines (~₱313/pack) are below break-even — opening at retail is +EV. Market prices (~₱706/pack) significantly exceed break-even — do not open at market prices.
What You Should Do
If you want a specific card
Buy the single. Use tcgTalk price comparison to find the best price. For Mega Lucario ex MHR at ~₱15,721, pack opening is unrealistic — the expected cost is approximately 2,520 packs.
If you want to open packs
Open at retail only. The booster box at retail (38.6% win rate, median −$10, 1.10× return) is the best format. At market prices, no format is worth opening for value.
If you are buying sealed for investment
ME01 is the first set in the Mega Evolution series — Mega Lucario and Mega Gardevoir are among the most popular characters in the franchise. Collector demand keeps sealed prices well above EV. The market box at ₱18,987 costs ₱6,513 more than the mathematical break-even.
Buy Mega Evolution on TCGPlayer
FAQ
Is it worth opening Mega Evolution packs in the Philippines?
At retail (+EV, 1.10×), yes. At market (−EV, 0.71× for box), no. The market box at ₱18,987 has a median loss of −$112.
What is the most expensive Mega Evolution card right now?
Mega Lucario ex MHR (#188) at approximately ₱15,723. Mega Lucario ex SIR (#179) at ₱13,563 is second.
How many SIRs and MHRs are in Mega Evolution?
10 Special Illustration Rares (#177–186) and 2 Mega Hyper Rares (#187–188). Different from Chaos Rising which has only 1 MHR.
What are the pull rates for Mega Evolution?
SIR ~0.99% (1 in ~101 packs), MHR ~0.079% (1 in ~1,260 packs), IR ~11.1% (1 in ~9 packs), UR ~8.3% (1 in ~12 packs), DR ~20% (1 in ~5 packs).
Disclaimer: All card prices from PriceCharting market data (USD) as of May 2026. PHP values use live exchange rates. Pull rates are community estimates. Monte Carlo uses 100,000 simulations. This is not financial advice.