Card prices are sourced from PriceCharting market data (USD). PHP equivalents use live exchange rates. Pull rates are derived from approximately 3,500 community pack openings.
The Short Answer
Surging Sparks is negative EV at market prices across all formats — but +EV at retail. The expected card value per pack is USD $5.6:
| Product | Retail Price (PHP) | Market Price (PHP) | Expected Card Value | Verdict (retail) |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Booster Pack | ₱265 | ₱573 | ₱345 | +EV at retail (1.17×) |
| Booster Bundle (6 packs) | ₱1,590 | ₱3,723 | ₱2,072 | +EV at retail (1.17×) |
| Booster Box (36 packs) | ₱9,540 | ₱18,437 | ₱12,431 | +EV at retail (1.17×) |
The key insight: at market prices, you are paying a significant premium above EV — packs return just 0.63× on average. At retail, EV is positive across all formats at 1.17×. Buy retail when available, and buy singles for specific targets.
Card Prices by Rarity
Hyper Rare (HR) — #249–252
4 cards. The rarest non-SIR tier. Estimated pull rate ~1 in 188 packs. Gold treatment on trainer items.
| # | Card | Price (USD) | Price (PHP) |
|---|---|---|---|
| 251 | Night Stretcher | $9.94 | ₱613 |
| 250 | Gravity Mountain | $9.51 | ₱586 |
| 252 | Jet Energy | $5.14 | ₱317 |
| 249 | Counter Gain | $3.87 | ₱239 |
Special Illustration Rares (★★ SIR) — #236–248
13 cards. The main chase tier. Estimated pull rate ~1 in 87 packs. Price range ₱540–₱19,867. Pikachu ex SIR (#238) dominates at over $305 USD.
| # | Card | Price (USD) | Price (PHP) |
|---|---|---|---|
| 238 | Pikachu ex | $305.00 | ₱18,809 |
| 239 | Latias ex | $176.25 | ₱10,869 |
| 237 | Milotic ex | $110.86 | ₱6,837 |
| 247 | Pikachu ex | $84.49 | ₱5,210 |
| 240 | Hydreigon ex | $34.89 | ₱2,152 |
| 242 | Alolan Exeggutor ex | $31.96 | ₱1,971 |
| 236 | Durant ex | $31.70 | ₱1,955 |
| 246 | Lisia's Appeal | $27.27 | ₱1,682 |
| 245 | Jasmine's Gaze | $22.47 | ₱1,386 |
| 241 | Archaludon ex | $13.00 | ₱802 |
| 248 | Alolan Exeggutor ex | $10.87 | ₱670 |
| 243 | Clemont's Quick Wit | $9.18 | ₱566 |
| 244 | Drayton | $8.42 | ₱519 |
Pool average: ₱4,110. Pool median: ₱1,955.
Ultra Rares (★★ UR) — #215–235
21 cards. Expected ~1 in 15 packs. Pool average ₱236 — modest but Pikachu ex UR (#219) at ₱1,696 is a standout.
| # | Card | Price (USD) | Price (PHP) |
|---|---|---|---|
| 219 | Pikachu ex | $30.29 | ₱1,868 |
| 220 | Latias ex | $6.99 | ₱431 |
| 223 | Hydreigon ex | $4.40 | ₱271 |
| 234 | Lisia's Appeal | $4.07 | ₱251 |
| 222 | Flygon ex | $3.23 | ₱199 |
| 218 | Black Kyurem ex | $2.99 | ₱184 |
| 230 | Cyrano | $2.79 | ₱172 |
| 217 | Milotic ex | $2.56 | ₱158 |
| 225 | Alolan Exeggutor ex | $2.50 | ₱154 |
| 233 | Jasmine's Gaze | $2.21 | ₱136 |
| 226 | Tatsugiri ex | $2.13 | ₱131 |
| 221 | Palossand ex | $2.00 | ₱123 |
| 229 | Clemont's Quick Wit | $1.99 | ₱123 |
| 215 | Durant ex | $1.99 | ₱123 |
| 232 | Drayton | $1.89 | ₱117 |
| 228 | Cyclizar ex | $1.69 | ₱104 |
| 224 | Archaludon ex | $1.58 | ₱97 |
| 227 | Slaking ex | $1.44 | ₱89 |
| 235 | Surfer | $1.39 | ₱86 |
| 216 | Scovillain ex | $1.17 | ₱72 |
| 231 | Drasna | $1.09 | ₱67 |
Illustration Rares (★ IR) — #192–214
23 cards. Expected ~1 in 13 packs. Latios (#203) at ₱1,925 is the top IR — a fan favourite design.
| # | Card | Price (USD) | Price (PHP) | Notes |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 203 | Latios | $31.50 | ₱1,943 | Top IR — fan favourite design |
| 197 | Ceruledge | $20.80 | ₱1,283 | High demand from competitive players |
| 212 | Slakoth | $11.88 | ₱733 | |
| 204 | Mesprit | $11.09 | ₱684 | |
| 209 | Skarmory | $10.27 | ₱633 | |
| 198 | Feebas | $9.07 | ₱559 | |
| 199 | Spheal | $9.06 | ₱559 | |
| 205 | Phanpy | $8.55 | ₱527 | |
| 208 | Alolan Dugtrio | $8.50 | ₱524 | |
| 195 | Castform Sunny Form | $8.11 | ₱500 | |
| 192 | Exeggcute | $7.81 | ₱482 | |
| 213 | Kecleon | $7.17 | ₱442 | |
| 211 | Appletun | $6.93 | ₱427 | |
| 207 | Clobbopus | $6.86 | ₱423 | |
| 214 | Braviary | $4.92 | ₱303 | |
| 193 | Vivillon | $4.25 | ₱262 | |
| 210 | Flapple | $4.04 | ₱249 | |
| 194 | Shiinotic | $3.97 | ₱245 | |
| 206 | Vibrava | $3.65 | ₱225 | |
| 196 | Larvesta | $3.11 | ₱192 | |
| 201 | Cetitan | $3.09 | ₱191 | |
| 200 | Bruxish | $2.50 | ₱154 | |
| 202 | Stunfisk | $1.99 | ₱123 |
ACE SPEC Rare — #162–191 (select)
Expected ~1 in 20 packs. Pool average: ₱147. Enriching Energy (#191) leads at ₱210.
| # | Card | Price (USD) | Price (PHP) |
|---|---|---|---|
| 191 | Enriching Energy | $3.41 | ₱210 |
| 185 | Precious Trolley | $2.95 | ₱182 |
| 186 | Scramble Switch | $0.82 | ₱51 |
Double Rare ex / Rare (residual) — #001–161
The residual slot — ~79% residual of packs land here. Pool average: ₱109. Pikachu ex (#57) at ₱293 and Latias ex (#76) at ₱251 lead the DR tier.
Chase Cards: Top 10 by Value
Expected Value Per Pack
| Component | Pull Rate | Pool Avg (USD) | EV Contribution |
|---|---|---|---|
| Bulk (commons + uncommons) | 100% | $0.80 | $0.80 |
| Reverse Holo slot | 100% | $1.60 | $1.60 |
| Rare / Double Rare ex (residual) | 79.0% | $1.76 | $1.39 |
| ACE SPEC Rare | 5.0% | $2.39 | $0.12 |
| Ultra Rare (#215–235) | 6.67% | $3.83 | $0.26 |
| Illustration Rare (#192–214) | 7.69% | $8.22 | $0.63 |
| Hyper Rare (#249–252) | 0.53% | $7.12 | $0.04 |
| SIR (#236–248) | 1.15% | $66.64 | $0.77 |
Monte Carlo: Win vs Loss Odds
Results from 100,000 simulated openings, drawing from actual card pool prices and pull rates. Simulation costs are in USD; your PHP value depends on the live exchange rate.
Each bar = $50 profit/loss range. ··· represents an empty gap in outcomes. 100,000 simulated openings. Prices from PriceCharting (USD), August 2026.
Win / Loss summary across all formats
| Scenario | Cost (USD) | Win % | Loss % | Median P/L | P5 (bad luck) | P95 (good luck) | Avg Return |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Pack — retail (~$4.30) | $4.3 | 39.3% | 60.7% | +$0 | −$1 | +$6 | 1.29× |
| Bundle — retail (~$25.78) | $25.78 | 64.1% | 35.9% | +$2 | −$4 | +$31 | 1.31× |
| Box — retail (~$154.69) | $154.69 | 92.7% | 7.3% | +$26 | −$2 | +$193 | 1.30× |
| Pack — market (~$9.29) | $9.29 | 6.3% | 93.7% | −$5 | −$6 | +$1 | 0.61× |
| Bundle — market (~$60.37) | $60.37 | 3.5% | 96.5% | −$33 | −$38 | −$4 | 0.56× |
| Box — market (~$298.97) | $298.97 | 7.4% | 92.6% | −$119 | −$146 | +$51 | 0.67× |
The Break-Even Price
Market prices sit well above break-even for all formats. The market box at ₱18,437 costs ₱6,007 more than expected card value — a significant premium to pay for the opening experience.
What You Should Actually Do
If you want a specific card
Buy the single. Use the tcgTalk price comparison. Targeting a specific SIR by opening packs is expensive — the expected number of packs to hit one specific SIR is roughly 87 packs.
If you want to open packs
Find retail pricing if at all possible — ₱9,540 for a box at 1.17× EV is a reasonable deal. At market prices (₱18,437), you are paying well above EV and the median outcome is a significant loss.
If you are buying sealed for investment
At current market prices, sealed Surging Sparks is priced above EV — sealed box at ₱18,437 against card EV of ₱12,431. The investment case relies on prices rising further, which is uncertain.
Buy Surging Sparks on TCGPlayer
Frequently Asked Questions
Is it worth opening Surging Sparks in the Philippines?
At retail, yes — all formats return 1.17× EV. At market prices (pack ~₱573, box ~₱18,437), all formats are negative EV. Find retail or buy singles.
How many SIRs are in Surging Sparks?
13 Special Illustration Rares (#236–248) plus 4 Hyper Rares (#249–252), for 17 premium rarity cards total. A larger SIR pool than most SV-era sets, dominated by Pikachu ex at $322 USD.
Are the IRs in Surging Sparks worth pulling?
Yes — the IR pool averages ₱507 with standout cards like Latios (#203) at ₱1,925 and Ceruledge (#197) at ₱1,171. IRs are pulled ~1 in 13 packs, making them a meaningful EV contributor.
Disclaimer: All card prices are from PriceCharting market data (USD) as of August 2026. PHP equivalents use live exchange rates. Pull rates are community estimates from approximately 3,500 pack openings. Monte Carlo uses 100,000 simulations. This is not financial advice.