Card prices are sourced from PriceCharting market data (USD). SGD equivalents use an approximate 1.28 exchange rate. Retail price estimates assume SGD $5.50/pack (~USD $4.3) — verify with your local store. Prices reflect current secondary market rates and will change as the set ages.
The Short Answer
Surging Sparks (SV08) is a tough set for pack openers at market price. The EV per pack is approximately USD $5.59, while the market pack price is USD $9.53 — a 0.59× return. The booster box at market (~$292.98) is well above the break-even price of ~$201.21, meaning you are paying a significant premium over expected card value. Opening is only positive expected value if you can source product at or below the break-even prices above.
| Product | Retail Price (USD) | Market Price (USD) | Expected Card Value | Return at Retail | Verdict |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Booster Pack | ~$4.3 | ~$9.53 | $5.59 | 1.31× | +EV at retail. −EV at market. |
| Booster Bundle (6 packs) | ~$25.78 | ~$52 | $33.54 | 1.30× | +EV at retail. −EV at market. |
| ~Break-even bundle | ~$33.54 USD (SGD ~$42.93) | $33.54 | 1.0× | Expected value equals cost. | |
| Booster Box (36 packs) | ~$154.69 | ~$292.98 | $201.21 | 1.30× | +EV at retail. −EV at market. |
| ~Break-even box | ~$201.21 USD (SGD ~$258) | $201.21 | 1.0× | Expected value equals cost. | |
Why the gap? The market box price ($292.98) is roughly 46% above the break-even price ($201.21). This premium reflects collector demand for sealed Surging Sparks product — primarily driven by the Pikachu ex SIR (#238) at ~$315 and Latias ex SIR (#239) at ~$181. Opening at market prices means you need a significant lucky hit just to break even, let alone profit.
Card Prices by Rarity
Surging Sparks (SV08) has 252 cards across six rarity tiers above common. The set has 13 SIRs, 4 Hyper Rares, 21 Ultra Rares, 23 Illustration Rares, and ACE SPEC trainers. Pikachu ex dominates the value landscape with multiple premium printings.
Hyper Rares (HR) — #249–252
4 gold full-art ACE SPEC trainers. Estimated pull rate approximately 1 in 188 packs (0.53%). These are gold-treatment reprints of the set's ACE SPEC cards.
| # | Card | Price (USD) | Price (SGD est.) |
|---|---|---|---|
| 250 | Gravity Mountain | $10.43 | ~$13.35 |
| 251 | Night Stretcher | $9.42 | ~$12.06 |
| 252 | Jet Energy | $5.32 | ~$6.81 |
| 249 | Counter Gain | $3.84 | ~$4.92 |
Pool average: $7.25 USD. The HR pool is low-value relative to other sets — these are utility trainers rather than fan-favourite Pokemon, which limits demand.
Special Illustration Rares (★★ SIR) — #236–248
13 cards. The primary chase tier. Estimated pull rate approximately 1 in 87 packs (1.15%). Price range: $8.48–$315. The Pikachu ex SIR (#238) is one of the most valuable SIR cards in the SV era.
| # | Card | Price (USD) | Price (SGD est.) |
|---|---|---|---|
| 238 | Pikachu ex | $315.24 | ~$404 |
| 239 | Latias ex | $180.53 | ~$231 |
| 237 | Milotic ex | $128.50 | ~$164 |
| 247 | Pikachu ex | $90.00 | ~$115 |
| 240 | Hydreigon ex | $39.32 | ~$50.33 |
| 242 | Alolan Exeggutor ex | $29.90 | ~$38.27 |
| 236 | Durant ex | $29.80 | ~$38.14 |
| 246 | Lisia's Appeal | $28.14 | ~$36.02 |
| 245 | Jasmine's Gaze | $22.13 | ~$28.33 |
| 241 | Archaludon ex | $12.25 | ~$15.68 |
| 248 | Alolan Exeggutor ex | $10.99 | ~$14.07 |
| 243 | Clemont's Quick Wit | $9.29 | ~$11.89 |
| 244 | Drayton | $8.48 | ~$10.85 |
Pool average: $69.58 USD. Pool median: $29.8 USD. The mean is heavily skewed by Pikachu ex SIR at $315. If you pull an SIR, the median outcome is a card worth ~$29.8 — solid, but most of the EV comes from the top 3 cards. There are two distinct Pikachu ex SIR printings (#238 and #247) with very different values — #238 is the chase version at $315.
Ultra Rares (★★ UR) — #215–235
21 cards. Full-art ex cards and trainer full arts. Expected roughly once every 15 packs (6.67%). Most are worth $1.25–$7.00, with Pikachu ex (#219) as the standout at $28.66.
| # | Card | Price (USD) |
|---|---|---|
| 219 | Pikachu ex | $28.66 |
| 220 | Latias ex | $7.00 |
| 223 | Hydreigon ex | $5.00 |
| 234 | Lisia's Appeal | $4.11 |
| 230 | Cyrano | $3.90 |
| 222 | Flygon ex | $3.62 |
| 218 | Black Kyurem ex | $3.00 |
| 217 | Milotic ex | $3.00 |
| 225 | Alolan Exeggutor ex | $2.74 |
| 226 | Tatsugiri ex | $2.66 |
| 233 | Jasmine's Gaze | $2.50 |
| 228 | Cyclizar ex | $2.27 |
| 221 | Palossand ex | $2.25 |
| 216 | Scovillain ex | $1.94 |
| 224 | Archaludon ex | $1.78 |
| 235 | Surfer | $1.75 |
| 229 | Clemont's Quick Wit | $1.65 |
| 231 | Drasna | $1.59 |
| 215 | Durant ex | $1.50 |
| 232 | Drayton | $1.39 |
| 227 | Slaking ex | $1.25 |
Pool average: $3.98 USD. The Pikachu ex UR (#219) at $28.66 is the only standout — the rest of the pool is tightly clustered in the low single-dollar range. Pulling a UR feels underwhelming unless it's Pikachu.
Illustration Rares (★ IR) — #192–214
23 cards. Expected roughly once every 13 packs (7.69%). A large IR pool with several standouts — Latios (#203) and Ceruledge (#197) carry the pool average significantly.
| # | Card | Price (USD) | Notes |
|---|---|---|---|
| 203 | Latios | $32.57 | Top IR — fan favourite design |
| 197 | Ceruledge | $19.99 | High demand from competitive players |
| 212 | Slakoth | $12.50 | |
| 204 | Mesprit | $11.57 | |
| 209 | Skarmory | $11.00 | |
| 199 | Spheal | $9.84 | |
| 195 | Castform Sunny Form | $9.03 | |
| 192 | Exeggcute | $8.07 | |
| 198 | Feebas | $8.00 | |
| 207 | Clobbopus | $7.90 | |
| 208 | Alolan Dugtrio | $7.57 | |
| 205 | Phanpy | $7.00 | |
| 211 | Appletun | $6.33 | |
| 213 | Kecleon | $6.00 | |
| 214 | Braviary | $5.68 | |
| 193 | Vivillon | $5.37 | |
| 210 | Flapple | $4.01 | |
| 194 | Shiinotic | $3.54 | |
| 206 | Vibrava | $3.49 | |
| 201 | Cetitan | $2.93 | |
| 196 | Larvesta | $2.78 | |
| 200 | Bruxish | $2.72 | |
| 202 | Stunfisk | $2.25 |
Pool average: $8.27 USD. Pool median: $7 USD. This is a decent IR pool — Latios at $33 and Ceruledge at $20 pull the average up, and the bottom of the pool (~$2–$4) is not extreme filler. An IR hit in Surging Sparks is a consistent outcome worth $2–$33.
ACE SPEC Rares — #162–191 (select trainers)
ACE SPEC trainers appear in a dedicated hit slot at approximately 1 in 20 packs (5.0%). These are high-rarity trainer cards with the ACE SPEC border. The gold Hyper Rare versions of these cards are at #249–252.
| # | Card | Price (USD) |
|---|---|---|
| 191 | Enriching Energy | $3.05 |
| 185 | Precious Trolley | $2.44 |
| 186 | Scramble Switch | $1.39 |
Pool average: $2.29 USD. ACE SPEC cards have low secondary market value in this set — the hit slot contributes only $0.11 per pack on average. They are playable trainers but not collector chase cards.
Double Rare ex (★★) — main set #001–161
18 ex cards in the base set, identified by the Double Rare star symbol. These appear in the regular hit slot alongside standard rares. Most are worth $0.87–$4.53, with the Pikachu ex base version (#57) at $4.53 and Latias ex (#76) at $4.53 as the top pulls.
| # | Card | Price (USD) |
|---|---|---|
| 57 | Pikachu ex | $4.53 |
| 76 | Latias ex | $4.53 |
| 86 | Sylveon ex | $2.69 |
| 36 | Ceruledge ex | $1.90 |
| 106 | Flygon ex | $1.56 |
| 133 | Alolan Exeggutor ex | $1.45 |
| 119 | Hydreigon ex | $1.41 |
| 91 | Palossand ex | $1.31 |
| 142 | Tatsugiri ex | $1.28 |
| 68 | Kilowattrel ex | $1.25 |
| 159 | Cyclizar ex | $1.24 |
| 147 | Slaking ex | $1.23 |
| 130 | Archaludon ex | $1.20 |
| 48 | Black Kyurem ex | $1.02 |
| 42 | Milotic ex | $0.99 |
| 37 | Scovillain ex | $0.99 |
| 4 | Durant ex | $0.98 |
| 160 | Flamigo ex | $0.87 |
Pool average: $1.69 USD. These are the lowest-value hit slot outcomes — below the pack cost in virtually all cases.
Chase Cards: Top 10 by Value
Pikachu ex appears at four different rarity levels in this set — SIR #238 ($315), SIR #247 ($90), UR #219 ($28.66), and DR #57 ($4.53). The top SIR is one of the most valuable Pikachu ex printings of the SV era. Latias ex SIR (#239) and Milotic ex SIR (#237) round out the chase tier at $181 and $129 respectively.
Expected Value Per Pack
Using current PriceCharting market prices weighted by pull rates from community mass-opening data (8,000+ packs), here is where the expected value of each Surging Sparks pack comes from:
| Component | Pull Rate | Pool Avg (USD) | EV Contribution |
|---|---|---|---|
| Bulk (commons + uncommons) | 100% | $0.80 | $0.80 |
| Reverse Holo slot | 100% | $1.60 | $1.60 |
| Rare / Double Rare ex (residual) | 79.0% | $1.69 | $1.33 |
| ACE SPEC Rare | 5.0% | $2.29 | $0.11 |
| Ultra Rare (#215–235) | 6.67% | $3.98 | $0.27 |
| Illustration Rare (#192–214) | 7.69% | $8.27 | $0.64 |
| Hyper Rare (#249–252) | 0.53% | $7.25 | $0.04 |
| SIR (#236–248) | 1.15% | $69.58 | $0.80 |
Key observations from this table:
- Bulk and reverse holo contribute 43% of the EV ($2.40 of $5.59) — a large share, because the hit-slot cards in Surging Sparks are not valuable enough to dominate.
- SIR is the largest single hit-slot contributor at $0.80, but this comes from a pool where the mean ($69.58) is skewed by the $315 Pikachu ex SIR. The median SIR pull is only $29.8.
- The residual rare / Double Rare slot adds $1.33 at 79% — low per-card value, but it hits in most packs.
- IRs contribute $0.64 at 7.69% pull rate — a reliable consistent value component, with Latios IR ($33) and Ceruledge IR ($20) as the standouts.
- ACE SPEC and HR together add only $0.15 per pack — both pools are low in secondary market value. The HR cards are utility trainers with limited collector demand.
Monte Carlo: Win vs Loss Odds
The EV table above gives averages. What actually happens to individual openers is driven by variance. The charts below show results from 100,000 simulated openings, drawing from the actual card pool prices and pull rates — not averages.
Each bar = $50 profit/loss range. ··· represents an empty gap in outcomes. 100,000 simulated openings. Prices from PriceCharting (USD), June 2026.
Win / Loss summary across all formats
| Scenario | Cost | Win % | Loss % | Median P/L | P5 (bad luck) | P95 (good luck) | Avg Return |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Pack — retail (~$4.30) | $4.3 | 34.9% | 65.1% | −$1 | −$1 | +$6 | 1.31× |
| Bundle — retail (~$25.78) | $25.78 | 61.7% | 38.3% | +$1 | −$4 | +$30 | 1.30× |
| Box — retail (~$154.69) | $154.69 | 90.5% | 9.5% | +$24 | −$4 | +$200 | 1.30× |
| Pack — market (~$9.53) | $9.53 | 5.4% | 94.6% | −$6 | −$6 | +$1 | 0.59× |
| Bundle — market (~$52.00) | $52 | 7% | 93% | −$25 | −$30 | +$4 | 0.65× |
| Box — market (~$292.98) | $292.98 | 8.5% | 91.5% | −$114 | −$142 | +$59 | 0.69× |
P5 = the outcome in the worst 5% of openings. P95 = the outcome in the best 5%. Win = profit > $0. Simulation: 100,000 runs, seed 42.
What these numbers mean in practice:
- At market prices, this set is among the worst-value opens in recent SV history. An 8.5% box win rate and 0.69× return means opening a market box is expected to cost you ~$92 in card value versus its price. The median loss on a market box is $114.
- The P95 box outcome at +$59 — the best 5% of box openings — doesn't even recover the cost of the product at market price. You need the top few percent of outcomes (hitting a Pikachu ex SIR or Latias ex SIR) to profit meaningfully.
- Market bundles at 7% win rate and −$25 median are particularly poor value — you need exactly the right SIR hit in just 6 packs, which is unlikely at 1.15% per pack.
- At retail prices (~$4.3/pack), the box win rate of 90.5% and +$24 median outcome make retail opening clearly the best format for this set.
The Break-Even Price
If the expected value per pack is $5.59 USD, the break-even prices for each product format are:
Singapore context: Verify current local retail prices before opening — Singapore retail for SV-era packs varies by wave and store. The break-even pack price is SGD $7.16. If you can source packs below this price, opening is positive expected value.
Sensitivity to SIR price changes
The Pikachu ex SIR (#238) at $315 is a highly volatile card — it could appreciate further or correct significantly. Here is how the EV and break-even prices change if SIR prices drop:
| SIR Price Scenario | EV per Pack | Break-even Bundle (USD) | Break-even Box (USD) |
|---|---|---|---|
| Current prices (June 2026) | $5.59 | ~$33.54 | ~$201.24 |
| SIRs −25% | ~$5.39 | ~$32.34 | ~$194.04 |
| SIRs −50% | ~$5.19 | ~$31.14 | ~$186.84 |
| SIRs −75% | ~$4.99 | ~$29.94 | ~$179.64 |
SIR contributes $0.80 per pack (14% of total EV). Because the SIR pool includes relatively lower-priced cards alongside the $315 Pikachu ex SIR, even a 75% SIR correction reduces EV by only ~$0.60 per pack. The market box would remain well above break-even regardless of SIR price movements — the core issue is the product premium, not SIR prices alone.
What You Should Actually Do
If you want a specific card
Buy the single. Use the tcgTalk price comparison to find the best current Singapore price. For the Pikachu ex SIR at $315, the expected cost to pull one through opening is enormous — statistically 87 packs per SIR hit times the chance of it being specifically #238 (1 of 13 SIRs) ≈ 1,131 packs on average. At $9.53 market per pack, that is over $10,778 in product for one expected copy.
If you want to open packs
Only open at or close to retail prices (SGD $5.50/pack or below). At retail, all three formats are positive expected value (1.31× return). The retail box has approximately 90.5% win rate and a +$24 median outcome — the best format if you want to open. Bundles at retail are favourable too (61.7% win). Individual packs at market ($9.53) should be avoided — 94.6% loss rate.
If you are buying sealed for investment
The sealed product premium over break-even is steep (~46% at market). For sealed investment, the upside depends on SIR prices holding or appreciating — specifically the Pikachu ex SIR maintaining its premium. Sealed Surging Sparks boxes are unlikely to appreciate significantly at market prices given the negative pack-opening EV already priced in. Retail-sourced sealed has better upside potential. Compare current sealed prices on Carousell or SNKRDUNK before committing.
If you already have cards to sell
The Pikachu ex SIR (#238) at $315 is the top-priority card to evaluate. SIR prices in SV sets typically soften 20–40% within the first 3–6 months of peak demand passing. If you have the #238, consider the timing carefully — acting at or near current prices captures the premium. The Latias ex SIR (#239) at $181 and Milotic ex SIR (#237) at $129 are also high-priority given their size. Latios IR (#203) at $33 is the standout lower-rarity sell candidate.
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Frequently Asked Questions
Is it worth opening Surging Sparks packs?
Not at market prices. EV per pack is ~$5.59 USD vs a market pack price of ~$9.53 (0.59× return). The break-even box price is ~$201.21, while market boxes are ~$292.98 — you are paying 46% over EV. At Singapore retail prices (~SGD $5.50 / USD $4.3 per pack), opening is positive expected value (1.31×). Verify current retail prices locally before opening.
What is the most expensive Surging Sparks card?
Pikachu ex SIR (#238) at approximately USD $315 (~SGD $404). This is one of the highest-valued Pikachu ex cards in the SV era. Latias ex SIR (#239) at USD $181 (~SGD $231) and Milotic ex SIR (#237) at USD $129 (~SGD $164) are the next tier.
How many SIRs are in Surging Sparks?
13 Special Illustration Rares (#236–248) and 4 Hyper Rares (#249–252), for 17 premium rarity cards above the IR tier. The SIR pool includes two distinct Pikachu ex printings (#238 at $315 and #247 at $90) — a notable design choice that splits the top-rarity value across multiple cards.
What is the difference between Pikachu ex #238 and #247?
Both are Special Illustration Rares of Pikachu ex. Card #238 is the primary full-art SIR version with the high-demand artwork, priced at ~$315. Card #247 is a second SIR printing (alternate art or different treatment) at ~$90. Both are in the same SIR pull pool, so any SIR pull has a 2 in 13 chance of being a Pikachu ex (though values differ significantly).
Are the IR cards in Surging Sparks worth pulling?
Yes — the 23 IRs average $8.27 USD with notable standouts: Latios (#203) at $33, Ceruledge (#197) at $20, Slakoth (#212) at $13, and Mesprit (#204) at $12. The floor of the pool (~$2–$4) is not exciting, but the top IRs are solid pulls that offset many bulk packs.
How does Surging Sparks compare to Destined Rivals for pack opening?
Both sets are negative EV at market prices. Surging Sparks has a lower EV per pack than Destined Rivals but with the Pikachu ex SIR creating a larger single jackpot outcome. Destined Rivals has a more distributed SIR pool. In both cases, retail sourcing is the only sensible opening strategy — market prices are significantly above break-even for both sets.
Disclaimer: All card prices are from PriceCharting market data (USD) as of June 2026 and are indicative of current secondary market rates — they will change. SGD equivalents use an approximate 1.28 exchange rate (June 2026). Pull rates are community estimates from 8,000+ pack aggregate opening data; The Pokemon Company does not publish official pull rates. Retail price estimates assume SGD $5.50/pack — verify with your local store. Monte Carlo results use 100,000 simulated openings, seed 42. This is not financial advice. Verify current prices on tcgTalk or Carousell before making any buying or selling decisions.