Masterset Calculator
A masterset means one of every card in the set. Set your cost per pack, choose which rarity tiers you want every card from, and the calculator estimates how many packs — and how much money — it takes to finish. Everything is built on the combined 753-pack sample behind our Pitch Black pull-rate page, so as we fold in more opening data, this number updates with it.
A Pitch Black booster box ran around $289 at launch (~$8 a pack), and a Booster Bundle works out cheaper per pack. Use your real cost — the total scales straight off it.
Toggle the tiers you want every card from. Turn on the gold MHR for a “true” masterset — one card, but ~770 packs on its own.
| Tier | Cards | Per pack | Packs to finish | Cost |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| SIR (Special Illustration Rare)Bottleneck 6 Special Illustration Rares at ~0.8%/pack — including the Mega Darkrai ex SIR (114/081). Six chase cards at a sub-1% rate is the usual bottleneck. | 6 | 0.80% | 1,837 ~90%: 3,032 | $14,700 |
| UR / full art (ex & trainer) 18 Ultra Rares (full-art ex, trainers, supporters) at only ~3.6%/pack — 18 distinct cards at a low rate makes this a heavy bottleneck alongside the SIRs. | 18 | 3.6% | 1,748 ~90%: 2,570 | $13,980 |
| MHR (gold Mega Darkrai ex) The single gold MHR (Mega Darkrai ex 118/081) at ~0.13%/pack. One card, but ~770 packs on its own — off by default, like a true "100%" chase. | 1 | 0.13% | 769 ~90%: 1,731 | $6,154 |
| Illustration Rare (IR) All 11 Illustration Rares. At ~11.6%/pack the pool fills in a few boxes — Armarouge is the most frequently pulled. | 11 | 11.6% | 286 ~90%: 441 | $2,291 |
| Standard ex (Double Rare) 6 Mega Evolution ex + 4 Pokémon ex = 10 distinct. The most common hit (~25%/pack), so it completes quickly. | 10 | 25.0% | 117 ~90%: 182 | $937 |
Each row is what that tier alone would take to complete. Your masterset finishes when the slowest included tier does, so the headline number tracks the bottleneck row (highlighted) — the others fill in well before it.
How to Read the Number
The calculator gives you two headline figures, and the gap between them is the whole point:
- Average (expected) — if you could run the masterset attempt many times, this is the typical pack count. It is the mean, and for a task like this the mean sits well below what most people actually experience.
- ~90% confidence budget — the pack count that finishes the set in about 9 of 10 attempts. This is the number to actually plan around, because completion has a long right tail: the unlucky runs are much longer than the lucky ones.
Multiply either by your cost per pack and you have the money figure. The tool defaults to the launch booster-box rate (~$8/pack), but the honest input is whatever you pay — cheaper sealed product drops the per-pack cost and scales the whole total down.
The Stats: Why It Costs So Much
Completing a set is a textbook “coupon collector’s problem.” The counter-intuitive part is that the last few cards cost far more than the first many, and that is exactly what makes a masterset so expensive. Here is the reasoning the calculator uses.
For a rarity tier with n distinct cards, where each pack has probability P of yielding some card from that tier, the expected number of packs to collect all n is:
That trailing sum (the harmonic number) is why the tail hurts. When you have 1 of 6 SIRs, almost every SIR you hit is new. When you have 5 of 6, you have to wait — on average — for 6 more SIR pulls just to see the single missing card. Since a SIR only shows up in ~0.8% of packs, that final card alone can cost hundreds of packs.
A worked example on the current data, for the heaviest tiers:
| Tier | Distinct cards (n) | Per-pack rate (P) | ≈ Packs to complete |
|---|---|---|---|
| SIR (Special Illustration Rare) | 6 | 0.8% | ~1,840 |
| UR / full art | 18 | 3.6% | ~1,750 |
| MHR (gold Mega Darkrai ex) | 1 | 0.13% | ~770 |
| IR (Illustration Rare) | 11 | 11.6% | ~285 |
| Standard ex | 10 | 25.0% | ~120 |
These are the per-tier figures the calculator sums up. The n-values are confirmed from the set breakdown; the SIR and MHR per-pack rates are the least-settled inputs and move the total the most.
The Bottleneck Explained
Notice the tiers finish at wildly different rates. The ex tier is done in ~120 packs; the IRs in ~285. But those same packs are also rolling for URs and SIRs — so by the time you have every ex and IR, you are nowhere near done on the SIRs. The masterset only completes when its slowest tier does, which is why the headline number tracks the bottleneck (the highlighted row in the calculator), not the sum of every tier.
On today’s data the bottleneck is the 6 SIRs at ~0.8% per pack — roughly 1,840 packs on their own — with the 18 URs at ~3.6% a close second at ~1,750. Everything else completes comfortably inside that window, so ~1,840 packs is the honest average for the whole pack-obtainable masterset. Flip on the single gold MHR and it adds a ~770-pack floor of its own — brutal for one card, though still below the SIR bottleneck.
Three caveats keep this honest, and the calculator states them inline:
- Independence assumption: the model treats each pack as an independent draw at the average rate. Real print runs cluster hits, so a live attempt can over- or under-shoot.
- Early rate inputs: the per-pack rates rest on 753 packs, and the rare tiers (SIR, MHR) move the total the most; the distinct-card counts, by contrast, are confirmed.
- Some cards aren’t pack-obtainable: the stamped prerelease, ETB and blister promos never drop from standard packs, so a true 100% masterset needs singles on top of any pack count.
The bottom line: Pitch Black opens well — a steady ~9 ex and 4–5 IRs a box — but a masterset is decided by its rarest, most numerous tiers, and coupon-collector math means the last handful of SIRs and URs dominate the cost. For nearly everyone, opening to a point and then buying the singles you are missing is far cheaper than ripping to completion.
Frequently Asked Questions
How many packs to complete a masterset?
About 1,840 on average on the current data, bottlenecked by the 6 SIRs — and closer to 3,000 to be ~90% sure. The calculator shows the live figure and lets you add or drop tiers.
How much will it cost?
Enter your cost per pack — it multiplies straight through. At the ~$8 launch box rate that’s roughly $14,700 average and ~$24,000 for the ~90% budget. Cheaper sealed product scales it down.
Why is the last SIR so expensive?
Coupon-collector math: once you own most of a tier, nearly every hit is a duplicate, so the final missing SIR can take as many packs as the first several combined. That tail — often the Mega Darkrai ex SIR itself — is where most of the cost lives.
Can I finish a masterset from packs alone?
No — the stamped prerelease, ETB and blister promos never come from standard packs. The calculator prices the pack-obtainable tiers; the rest must be bought.
Disclaimer: All figures are modelled estimates from 753 packs and confirmed per-tier card counts, and carry variance in the rare tiers. The model assumes independent packs at the average rate and equally likely cards within a tier; real openings can over- or under-shoot. The Pokémon Company does not publish official pull rates. This is not financial advice.