Pitch Black Pack Odds Calculator
Set how many packs you’re opening — type a number or tap a sealed product — then pick the card you’re chasing. The big figure is your chance of pulling at least one of that rarity across your packs; the table below prices every tier at once. All rates come from the combined 753-pack sample behind our Pitch Black pull-rate page.
Pick the card you actually want — the big number is your chance of pulling at least one across your pack count.
| Rarity | Per pack | Chance of ≥1 | Expected | Base odds |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Standard ex (Double Rare)Common | 25% | 100% | 9 | 1 in 4 |
| Illustration Rare (IR)Common | 12% | 99% | 4.2 | 1 in 8.6 |
| Shiny / holo energyCommon | 5.6% | 87% | 2 | 1 in 18 |
| UR / full art (ex & trainer)Chase | 3.6% | 73% | 1.3 | 1 in 28 |
| SIR (Special Illustration Rare)Chase | 0.8% | 25% | 0.3 | 1 in 125 |
| MHR (gold Mega Darkrai ex)Lottery | 0.1% | 4.6% | 0 | 1 in 769 |
These are category odds. Pitch Black has 6 different SIRs, 18 URs and 11 IRs, so the chance of hitting one *specific* named card — the Mega Darkrai ex SIR (114/081), say — is far longer than the tier rate shown here. Across ~21 boxes the Darkrai SIR landed just once.
Estimates only. Rates come from a combined 753-pack sample — three fully counted 36-pack boxes plus three community openings (the largest apportioned by observed cadence) — and the SIR/MHR rows rest on a handful of pulls, so treat them as provisional. Odds assume each pack is an independent draw at the observed per-pack rate; a real box or case can over- or under-shoot. Not affiliated with The Pokémon Company.
The Per-Pack Rates Behind the Calculator
Every English pack is 10 cards, and the rare slot is a Regular Rare at minimum — so there is no guaranteed premium hit, and just over half of packs (53.4%) are Rare-only. A full booster box is 36 packs, so the presets map straight onto real sealed product. These are the same aggregates published on the pull-rate page:
| Rarity | Per Pack | Base Odds | Notes |
|---|---|---|---|
| Standard ex (Double Rare) | 25.0% | ~1 in 4 | The most common hit — ~188 in 753 packs (~1 in 4). Every full box landed about 9. Standard & Mega ex like Mega Chandelure ex, Mega Zeraora ex, Wailord ex. |
| Illustration Rare (IR) | 11.6% | ~1 in 9 | Full-art non-ex with illustrated background — ~1 every 9 packs (~87 in 753), 4–5 per full box. Armarouge is by far the most frequently pulled. |
| Shiny / holo energy | 5.6% | ~1 in 18 | Shiny holo energy insert — ~5.6% of packs (~2 per box). A minor but frequent bonus; energies are rares in this set. |
| UR / full art (ex & trainer) | 3.6% | ~1 in 28 | Full-art ex, trainer or supporter — ~3.6% of packs (~1 per box). 18 in the set: Mega Zeraora ex, Mega Chandelure ex, the accessible Mega Darkrai ex UR (099/081), Misty and more. |
| SIR (Special Illustration Rare) | 0.80% | ~1 in 125 | Premium full-art — ~6 in 753 packs (~1 any-SIR every 3–4 boxes). 6 in the set: Mega Darkrai ex (114/081, the top chase), Mega Chandelure ex, Misty, Gladion’s Final Battle. |
| MHR (gold Mega Darkrai ex) | 0.13% | ~1 in 769 | The gold Master Hyper Rare Mega Darkrai ex (118/081) — the rarest card in the set. Pulled exactly once in 753 packs (~1 in 21 boxes observed). A lottery, not a plan. |
About 41% of packs delivered an ex or better across 753 packs — a hit-heavy but not guaranteed product. The rest were a Regular Rare (or a shiny/holo energy) only.
How the Odds Are Calculated
The model is deliberately simple and honest. For each rarity it takes the observed per-pack rate and treats every pack as an independent draw:
- Chance of ≥1 — the probability at least one pack in your batch contains that rarity, computed as
1 − (1 − rate)^packs. This is the number most people mean by “my odds.” - Expected — the average number you’d pull across your packs, simply
rate × packs. It can exceed 1 for common tiers over a box — you average ~9 ex per 36-pack box. - Base odds — the flat per-pack rate expressed as “1 in N,” so you can see the single-pack chance at a glance.
Two honest caveats. First, the SIR and MHR rates rest on few pulls even across 753 packs, so they carry real variance — one community box hit the Mega Darkrai ex SIR while a 500-pack run hunting it hit zero. Second, the model assumes packs are independent at the average rate; real print runs and collation can cluster hits, so a live box or case can over- or under-shoot the numbers here.
Odds of a Specific Named Card
The calculator prices rarity tiers, not individual cards — and that distinction matters. The ~0.8% SIR rate is the chance of pulling any SIR, but the set has six different SIRs (Mega Darkrai ex, Mega Chandelure ex, Misty, Gladion’s Final Battle and more). The odds of a specific one — the fan-favourite Mega Darkrai ex SIR (114/081) — are a fraction of that tier rate, which is exactly why it landed just once across ~21 boxes and why chasing a named card through packs almost always costs more than buying the single.
The same holds for the single gold MHR at the very top and for the 18 UR full arts. Use the tier odds to judge whether to open at all; use singles when you want one particular card.
Frequently Asked Questions
What are my odds of pulling the Mega Darkrai ex SIR?
Any SIR lands at about 0.8% per pack (~1 in 125) — roughly a 25% chance over a full 36-pack booster box and about 7% over a 9-pack ETB. Set your pack count above and pick SIR to see it live — but remember it’s any SIR, and the specific Mega Darkrai ex SIR (114/081) is far rarer, landing once in ~21 boxes in our data.
How many packs to pull the gold MHR?
The gold Mega Darkrai ex MHR (118/081) sits at ~0.13% per pack. You’d need roughly 530 packs — about 15 booster boxes — for a coin-flip chance at a single one. It’s the rarest card in the set and a genuine lottery, so buy the single if you want it specifically.
Does every pack have an ex?
No — about 53% of packs are a Regular Rare only. You average roughly 1 ex per 4 packs (~9 per full box), and 41% of packs carried an ex or better across the sample.
What are the odds of a UR full art per box?
About 3.6% per pack — roughly 1 per 36-pack box, or a ~73% chance of at least one UR across a full box. With 18 different URs in the set, a specific one is longer odds than the tier rate.
Disclaimer: All odds are estimates from a combined 753-pack sample and carry variance, especially in the SIR and MHR tiers. The calculator models each pack as an independent draw at the average per-pack rate; real openings can over- or under-shoot. The Pokémon Company does not publish official pull rates. This is not financial advice.