Card prices are sourced from PriceCharting market data (USD). SGD equivalents use an approximate 1.28 exchange rate. Prices reflect current secondary market rates — Pitch Black is a fresh release (17 July 2026), so expect the top-end cards to move quickly as the set settles.
The Short Answer
At Singapore retail prices, all three Pitch Black formats are positive expected value (~1.25×). At secondary-market prices, only the booster box holds up: at market (~$215.75) it sits just below the break-even price (~$228.73), so box opening at market is marginally positive (1.06×). Individual packs and bundles at market are clearly negative EV.
| Product | Retail Price (USD) | Market Price (USD) | Expected Card Value | Return at Retail | Verdict |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Booster Pack | ~$5.08 | ~$8.66 | $6.35 | 1.24× | +EV at retail. −EV at market. |
| Booster Bundle (6 packs) | ~$30.48 | ~$42 | $38.12 | 1.25× | +EV at retail. −EV at market. |
| ~Break-even bundle | ~$38.12 USD (SGD ~$48.79) | $38.12 | 1.0× | Expected value equals cost. | |
| Booster Box (36 packs) | ~$182.88 | ~$215.75 | $228.73 | 1.25× | +EV at retail. Marginally +EV at market. |
| ~Break-even box | ~$228.73 USD (SGD ~$293) | $228.73 | 1.0× | Expected value equals cost. | |
The market box, explained: The booster box market price ($215.75) sits just below the mathematical break-even point ($228.73), so on average a box returns about 1.06× at market — a slim positive edge driven entirely by the Mega Darkrai ex chase. The median outcome remains a loss (−$19 at market), because most of the EV is concentrated in the SIR and gold Hyper Rare, which most boxes never hit. You need at least one premium Darkrai to come out ahead.
Card Prices by Rarity
Pitch Black (ME05) — the English release of the Japanese Abyss Eye set — has six rarity tiers above common, with 120 total cards including secret rares. Like Chaos Rising, it is a compact Mega Evolution set: only 6 SIRs and 1 Mega Hyper Rare, which concentrates value heavily into the Mega Darkrai ex chase cards.
Mega Hyper Rare (◇) — #120
One card. The rarest printing in the set — the gold full-art treatment of Mega Darkrai ex. Estimated pull rate approximately 1 in 1,260 packs.
| # | Card | Price (USD) | Price (SGD est.) |
|---|---|---|---|
| 120 | Mega Darkrai ex | $232.50 | ~$298 |
Special Illustration Rares (★★ SIR) — #114–119
6 cards. The main chase tier. Estimated pull rate approximately 1 in 101 packs. Price range: $31–$337.
| # | Card | Price (USD) | Price (SGD est.) |
|---|---|---|---|
| 116 | Mega Darkrai ex | $337.08 | ~$431 |
| 117 | Morpeko ex | $103.09 | ~$132 |
| 114 | Mega Zeraora ex | $70.00 | ~$89.60 |
| 115 | Mega Chandelure ex | $55.99 | ~$71.67 |
| 119 | Gwynn | $41.94 | ~$53.68 |
| 118 | Gladion's Final Battle | $31.27 | ~$40.03 |
Pool average: $106.56 USD. Pool median: $63 USD. The mean is heavily skewed by the Mega Darkrai ex SIR ($337). If you pull an SIR, you are far more likely to get something near the median ($63) than the top card.
Illustration Rares (★ IR) — #85–95
11 cards. Expected roughly once every 9 packs. A compact IR pool — the standouts are Slowbro and Goldeen, both riding Mega Evolution line interest.
| # | Card | Price (USD) | Notes |
|---|---|---|---|
| 90 | Slowbro | $22.51 | Chase IR — Mega Slowbro line interest |
| 87 | Goldeen | $15.47 | |
| 88 | Primarina | $8.88 | |
| 86 | Armarouge | $8.85 | |
| 91 | Dhelmise | $8.36 | |
| 85 | Fomantis | $7.99 | |
| 94 | Toucannon | $6.57 | |
| 95 | Silvally | $6.50 | |
| 89 | Manectric | $5.99 | |
| 93 | Bastiodon | $4.99 | |
| 92 | Thievul | $4.64 |
Pool average: $9.16 USD. Pool median: $7.99 USD. Slowbro and Goldeen sit above the pack, but the pool is otherwise tightly clustered — pulling any IR is a decent outcome.
Ultra Rares (★★) — #96–113
18 cards. Full-art ex cards and trainer cards. Expected roughly once per 12 packs (8.3%). Most are worth a few dollars, with Misty's Vitality (#111) as the standout at $26.72 and the Mega Darkrai ex full art (#101) at $14.13.
| # | Card | Price (USD) |
|---|---|---|
| 111 | Misty's Vitality | $26.72 |
| 101 | Mega Darkrai ex | $14.13 |
| 99 | Mega Chandelure ex | $9.99 |
| 109 | Gwynn | $9.99 |
| 98 | Mega Zeraora ex | $9.75 |
| 102 | Morpeko ex | $9.00 |
| 103 | Mega Excadrill ex | $8.27 |
| 108 | Gladion's Final Battle | $6.87 |
| 105 | Crushing Hammer | $5.73 |
| 97 | Wailord ex | $5.63 |
| 104 | Brave Bangle | $4.99 |
| 112 | Rust Syndicate Grunt | $4.56 |
| 100 | Rampardos ex | $4.51 |
| 96 | Lurantis ex | $4.01 |
| 106 | Dark Bell | $3.99 |
| 107 | Energy Switch | $3.15 |
| 113 | Tremendous Bomb | $2.95 |
| 110 | Iron Defender | $2.92 |
Pool average: $7.62 USD. Pulling an Ultra Rare is a decent mid-tier outcome.
Double Rares (★★ ex) — #4, 8, 16, 27, 31, 38, 45, 48, 55, 65
10 ex and Mega ex cards in the base set. Expected roughly once every 5 packs (20%). Most are worth $1.90–$2.75, tightly clustered — the base Mega Darkrai ex (#48) at $2.75 tops the pool but there is no big outlier here.
| # | Card | Price (USD) |
|---|---|---|
| 48 | Mega Darkrai ex | $2.75 |
| 38 | Mega Chandelure ex | $2.50 |
| 27 | Mega Zeraora ex | $2.30 |
| 31 | Mega Slowbro ex | $2.23 |
| 8 | Mega Delphox ex | $2.15 |
| 16 | Wailord ex | $2.11 |
| 4 | Lurantis ex | $2.01 |
| 65 | Mega Excadrill ex | $1.96 |
| 55 | Morpeko ex | $1.93 |
| 45 | Rampardos ex | $1.90 |
Pool average: $2.18 USD. These are the bread-and-butter hits — consistent but low in individual value.
Chase Cards: Top 10 by Value
Mega Darkrai ex dominates the value landscape — the SIR (#116) and the gold Hyper Rare (#120) are the two most valuable cards in the set by a wide margin, and a full-art Ultra Rare (#101) and base Double Rare (#48) round out the Darkrai chase at every rarity. Together the SIR and Hyper Rare account for roughly a fifth of the set's expected value per pack.
Expected Value Per Pack
Using current PriceCharting market prices weighted by pull rates from Mega Evolution series community opening data, here is where the expected value of each pack comes from:
| Component | Pull Rate | Pool Avg (USD) | EV Contribution |
|---|---|---|---|
| Bulk (commons + uncommons) | 100% | $0.80 | $0.80 |
| Reverse Holo slot | 100% | $1.60 | $1.60 |
| Standard Rare (★) | 59.5% | $1.05 | $0.62 |
| Double Rare (★★ ex) | 20.0% | $2.18 | $0.44 |
| Illustration Rare (★ IR) | 11.1% | $9.16 | $1.02 |
| Ultra Rare (#96–113) | 8.3% | $7.62 | $0.64 |
| SIR (#114–119) | 0.99% | $106.56 | $1.06 |
| Mega Hyper Rare (#120) | 0.079% | $232.50 | $0.18 |
Key observations from this table:
- SIRs contribute the most of any hit slot ($1.06) — at just under 1% pull rate, the Mega Darkrai ex SIR's $337 price tag single-handedly lifts the whole tier.
- IRs are the most consistent value ($1.02) — at 11% pull rate with a $9.16 average, they deliver reliable returns session to session, unlike the boom-or-bust SIR slot.
- SIR and Hyper Rare together contribute $1.24 of the $6.35 EV — about a fifth of the total, and it takes real luck to realise it. Miss both, and a pack's value collapses to bulk plus an IR or ex.
Monte Carlo: Win vs Loss Odds
The EV table above gives averages. What actually happens to individual openers is driven by variance. The charts below show results from 100,000 simulated openings, drawing from the actual card pool prices and pull rates — not averages.
Each bar = $50 profit/loss range. ··· represents an empty gap in outcomes. 100,000 simulated openings. Prices from PriceCharting (USD), July 2026.
Win / Loss summary across all formats
| Scenario | Cost | Win % | Loss % | Median P/L | P5 (bad luck) | P95 (good luck) | Avg Return |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Pack — retail (~$5.08) | $5.08 | 22.4% | 77.6% | −$2 | −$2 | +$7 | 1.24× |
| Bundle — retail (~$30.48) | $30.48 | 43.3% | 56.7% | −$1 | −$9 | +$40 | 1.25× |
| Box — retail (~$182.88) | $182.88 | 65.6% | 34.4% | +$13 | −$27 | +$320 | 1.25× |
| Pack — market (~$8.66) | $8.66 | 12.8% | 87.2% | −$5 | −$5 | +$3 | 0.73× |
| Bundle — market (~$42.00) | $42 | 18.4% | 81.6% | −$13 | −$20 | +$29 | 0.91× |
| Box — market (~$215.75) | $215.75 | 33.8% | 66.2% | −$19 | −$60 | +$286 | 1.06× |
P5 = the outcome in the worst 5% of openings. P95 = the outcome in the best 5%. Win = profit > $0. Simulation: 100,000 runs, seed 42.
What these numbers mean in practice:
- The retail box at 65.6% win rate is the best opening odds in this set — a median profit of +$13 and 1.25× expected return.
- The retail bundle at 43.3% win rate is roughly a coin flip — acceptable if you prefer smaller quantities.
- The market box (33.8% win rate) is marginally positive (1.06×) but carries a negative median (−$19). Most box openers at market still lose — the positive average is carried by the minority of boxes that hit a Mega Darkrai ex SIR or gold.
- Market individual packs are poor value at 0.73× return and 87.2% loss rate. The per-pack premium (~$8.66 vs break-even $6.35) is too high.
The Break-Even Price
If the expected value per pack is $6.35 USD, the break-even prices for each product format are:
Singapore context: Retail packs in Singapore cost approximately SGD $6.50 each (USD ~$5.08), comfortably below the break-even pack price of $6.35. Retail boxes (USD ~$182.88) are well below break-even ($228.73). At Singapore retail, all three formats are positive expected value.
Sensitivity to SIR price changes
| SIR Price Scenario | EV per Pack | Break-even Bundle (USD) | Break-even Box (USD) |
|---|---|---|---|
| Current prices (July 2026) | $6.35 | ~$38.12 | ~$228.73 |
| SIRs −25% | ~$6.09 | ~$36.54 | ~$219.24 |
| SIRs −50% | ~$5.83 | ~$34.96 | ~$209.74 |
| SIRs −75% | ~$5.56 | ~$33.37 | ~$200.25 |
Because SIR contributes about 17% of total EV, a 25% SIR price crash — very plausible as launch hype cools — already pulls the break-even box down to ~$219, at which point the market box slips back below water. A 75% crash drops EV to ~$5.56 per pack; retail boxes (~$182.88) stay positive EV even then, while the market box would fall clearly negative.
What You Should Actually Do
If you want a specific card
Buy the single. Use the tcgTalk price comparison to find the best current Singapore price. For the Mega Darkrai ex SIR at $337 or the gold Hyper Rare at $233, opening packs to find it is not realistic — the expected cost to hit one specific SIR is roughly 606 packs (~1 in 101 packs × 1/6 SIRs) in product at market prices, many times the single price.
If you want to open packs
The retail box is the best format in this set: 65.6% win rate, median profit of +$13, and 1.25× expected return. At market the box is only marginally positive (1.06×) — a thin edge that a small dip in the Mega Darkrai ex price would erase. Bundles at retail are a coin-flip (43.3% win); individual packs are lowest value at any price.
Watch box prices on Carousell or SNKRDUNK: at today's ~$215.75 the market box is a slim positive, but because Pitch Black is freshly released, the Mega Darkrai ex chase cards are still near their hype peak. If SIR prices soften — as they usually do within a few months — the market box will drop below break-even (~$228.73).
If you are buying sealed for investment
Pitch Black sealed at retail is positive EV, and the Mega Darkrai ex headliner gives the set genuine long-term appeal — Darkrai is one of the most talked-about chase cards since Crown Zenith. Booster boxes are the preferred format. Avoid paying significantly above break-even (~$228.73 USD) for boxes at market, especially this early when top-card prices are still elevated.
If you already have cards to sell
The Mega Darkrai ex SIR at $337 and the gold Hyper Rare at $233 are the set's crown jewels. Prices for SIRs in new sets typically soften 25–40% within 3 months of release as the hype peak passes. If you pulled one and are considering selling, acting sooner rather than later tends to yield better prices. The IR cards (Slowbro, Goldeen) are more stable given their moderate price points.
Buy Pitch Black on TCGPlayer
Frequently Asked Questions
Is it worth opening Pitch Black packs?
At Singapore retail (~SGD $6.50/pack), yes — EV is ~$8.13 SGD per pack (~1.25× return). At secondary-market prices only the box holds up: at market ($215.75 USD) it is marginally positive (1.06×), while packs and bundles are negative. The median outcome is a loss in all formats because the Mega Darkrai ex SIR and gold Hyper Rare drive most of the upside.
What is the most expensive Pitch Black card?
Mega Darkrai ex SIR (#116) at approximately USD $337.08 (~SGD $431). The gold Mega Hyper Rare Mega Darkrai ex (#120) at USD $232.5 (~SGD $298) is the second most valuable card in the set.
How many SIRs are in Pitch Black?
6 Special Illustration Rares (#114–119) and 1 gold Mega Hyper Rare (#120), for 7 premium rarity cards above the standard IR tier. This mirrors sister set Chaos Rising's compact SIR pool.
What is the cheapest SIR in Pitch Black?
Gladion's Final Battle (#118) at USD $31.27 (~SGD $40.03) is the current lowest-value SIR. Gwynn (#119) at USD $41.94 is close behind.
Are the IR cards in Pitch Black worth pulling?
Yes — the 11 IRs average $9.16 USD, led by Slowbro ($23) and Goldeen ($15). With an IR expected roughly once every 9 packs, they are the most reliable source of value when you miss the SIR slot.
How does Pitch Black compare to Chaos Rising for pack opening?
Both are compact Mega Evolution sets with 6 SIRs + 1 Hyper Rare and the same pull-rate structure. Pitch Black has a slightly higher EV per pack ($6.35 vs Chaos Rising's) because the Mega Darkrai ex SIR commands a stronger price than Chaos Rising's top card. It is the more top-heavy of the two — more of its value rides on a single chase card.
Disclaimer: All card prices are from PriceCharting market data (USD) as of July 2026 and are indicative of current secondary market rates — they will change, and Pitch Black is a fresh release with fast-moving prices. SGD equivalents use an approximate 1.28 exchange rate. Pull rates are community estimates from Mega Evolution series aggregate opening data; The Pokemon Company does not publish official pull rates. Monte Carlo results use 100,000 simulated openings, seed 42. This is not financial advice. Verify current prices on tcgTalk or Carousell before making any buying or selling decisions.