Card prices are sourced from PriceCharting market data (USD). SGD equivalents use an approximate 1.28 exchange rate. Prices reflect current secondary market rates and will change as the set ages.
The Short Answer
Mega Evolution (ME01) is a set where the gap between retail and market pricing matters enormously. At Singapore retail (~SGD $6.50/pack), EV is 1.11× — mildly positive. At secondary market prices, all three formats are significantly negative EV: the market box at ~$307.98 costs over $100 more than the mathematical break-even of $202.33, returning only 0.66×.
| Product | Retail Price (USD) | Market Price (USD) | Expected Card Value | Return at Retail | Verdict |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Booster Pack | ~$5.08 | ~$11.45 | $5.62 | 1.11× | +EV at retail. −EV at market. |
| Booster Bundle (6 packs) | ~$30.48 | ~$56.49 | $33.72 | 1.11× | +EV at retail. −EV at market. |
| ~Break-even bundle | ~$33.72 USD (SGD ~$43.16) | $33.72 | 1.0× | Expected value equals cost. | |
| Booster Box (36 packs) | ~$182.88 | ~$307.98 | $202.33 | 1.11× | +EV at retail. −EV at market. |
| ~Break-even box | ~$202.33 USD (SGD ~$259) | $202.33 | 1.0× | Expected value equals cost. | |
The market premium explained: ME01 is the debut set of the Mega Evolution series and features the most iconic Mega Pokémon — Mega Gardevoir, Mega Lucario, Mega Venusaur. Market box prices (~$307.98) reflect collector demand for the set's prestige characters, and have climbed further above break-even this cycle. This premium severely erodes opening value. Opening at market prices is a 0.66× return on the box — you should expect to recoup only about 66 cents in card value for every dollar spent.
Card Prices by Rarity
Mega Evolution (ME01) has 188 total cards across six rarity tiers. The set has two Mega Hyper Rares — both iconic Mega ex — and ten SIRs spanning the Mega ex cards and trainer supporters.
Mega Hyper Rare (◇) — #187–188
Two cards. The rarest printing in the set — golden full-art treatments of the two marquee Mega ex. Estimated pull rate approximately 1 in 1,260 packs each.
| # | Card | Price (USD) | Price (SGD est.) |
|---|---|---|---|
| 188 | Mega Lucario ex | $261.37 | ~$335 |
| 187 | Mega Gardevoir ex | $211.58 | ~$271 |
Pool average: $236.48 USD. Unlike a single-MHR set, ME01 splits the slot between two cards — slightly reducing jackpot potential per pull but giving a second trophy card.
Special Illustration Rares (★★ SIR) — #177–186
10 cards. The main chase tier. Estimated pull rate approximately 1 in 101 packs. Price range: $18–$214. The top of this pool is dominated by Mega Lucario ex and Mega Gardevoir ex.
| # | Card | Price (USD) | Price (SGD est.) |
|---|---|---|---|
| 179 | Mega Lucario ex | $213.57 | ~$273 |
| 178 | Mega Gardevoir ex | $186.26 | ~$238 |
| 177 | Mega Venusaur ex | $153.14 | ~$196 |
| 181 | Mega Latias ex | $85.00 | ~$109 |
| 184 | Lillie's Determination | $70.35 | ~$90.05 |
| 180 | Mega Absol ex | $65.78 | ~$84.20 |
| 182 | Mega Kangaskhan ex | $59.76 | ~$76.49 |
| 183 | Acerola's Mischief | $31.73 | ~$40.61 |
| 186 | Wally's Compassion | $22.01 | ~$28.17 |
| 185 | Lt. Surge's Bargain | $17.72 | ~$22.68 |
Pool average: $90.53 USD. Pool median: $68.06 USD. The top three SIRs (Mega Lucario, Gardevoir, Venusaur) are all $153+. Pulling any of these is a significant win. The bottom two trainer SIRs (~$18–$22) are the consolation tier.
Illustration Rares (★ IR) — #133–154
22 cards. Expected roughly once every 9 packs. A wide IR pool, with lower average value per card. The chase IRs are the Bulbasaur and Ivysaur artworks.
| # | Card | Price (USD) | Notes |
|---|---|---|---|
| 133 | Bulbasaur | $24.00 | Chase IR |
| 134 | Ivysaur | $21.25 | |
| 146 | Marshadow | $16.00 | |
| 138 | Vulpix | $16.00 | |
| 150 | Steelix | $7.78 | |
| 136 | Shuckle | $7.31 | |
| 135 | Exeggutor | $6.07 | |
| 154 | Stufful | $5.50 | |
| 139 | Litleo | $4.64 | |
| 137 | Ninjask | $4.13 | |
| 151 | Spearow | $4.00 | |
| 153 | Gumshoos | $4.00 | |
| 143 | Helioptile | $3.63 | |
| 148 | Spiritomb | $3.13 | |
| 152 | Delibird | $3.07 | |
| 144 | Shedinja | $3.01 | |
| 145 | Houndstone | $2.99 | |
| 142 | Inteleon | $2.70 | |
| 140 | Snover | $2.50 | |
| 149 | Shroodle | $2.42 | |
| 141 | Clawitzer | $2.17 | |
| 147 | Garganacl | $1.84 |
Pool average: $6.73 USD. Pool median: $4 USD. The pool is wide, which dilutes expected value — most IR pulls land in the $2.50–$5 range. Bulbasaur and Ivysaur are the standout pulls.
Ultra Rares (★★ full art) — #155–176
22 cards. Full-art Mega ex and trainer cards. Expected roughly once per 12 packs (8.3%). Lillie's Determination (#169), Mega Lucario ex (#160), and Mega Venusaur ex (#155) are the standouts at $14–$20.
| # | Card | Price (USD) |
|---|---|---|
| 169 | Lillie's Determination | $19.76 |
| 160 | Mega Lucario ex | $14.85 |
| 155 | Mega Venusaur ex | $13.96 |
| 164 | Mega Kangaskhan ex | $5.94 |
| 159 | Mega Gardevoir ex | $5.79 |
| 167 | Buddy-Buddy Poffin | $5.76 |
| 163 | Mega Latias ex | $5.72 |
| 161 | Mega Absol ex | $5.59 |
| 173 | Night Stretcher | $4.39 |
| 175 | Rare Candy | $4.03 |
| 176 | Wally's Compassion | $3.91 |
| 165 | Acerola's Mischief | $3.85 |
| 158 | Mega Manectric ex | $3.31 |
| 168 | Fighting Gong | $3.06 |
| 166 | Air Balloon | $2.97 |
| 174 | Premium Power Pro | $2.88 |
| 162 | Mega Mawile ex | $2.85 |
| 156 | Mega Camerupt ex | $2.82 |
| 157 | Mega Abomasnow ex | $2.60 |
| 172 | Mystery Garden | $2.19 |
| 170 | Lt. Surge's Bargain | $2.00 |
| 171 | Mega Signal | $1.96 |
Pool average: $5.46 USD. The UR pool is large (22 cards) with a few standouts — Lillie's Determination ($20), Mega Lucario ex ($15), Mega Venusaur ex ($14) — pulling up the average while most cards settle in the $2–$6 range.
Double Rares (★★ ex) — #3, 22, 36, 50, 60, 77, 86, 94, 100, 104
10 Mega ex cards in the base set. Expected roughly once every 5 packs (20%). All are worth around $1–$2, with Mega Lucario ex (#77) at $2.03 as the top of the pool.
| # | Card | Price (USD) |
|---|---|---|
| 77 | Mega Lucario ex | $2.03 |
| 60 | Mega Gardevoir ex | $1.74 |
| 3 | Mega Venusaur ex | $1.68 |
| 104 | Mega Kangaskhan ex | $1.55 |
| 86 | Mega Absol ex | $1.48 |
| 100 | Mega Latias ex | $1.46 |
| 94 | Mega Mawile ex | $1.39 |
| 36 | Mega Abomasnow ex | $1.25 |
| 22 | Mega Camerupt ex | $1.23 |
| 50 | Mega Manectric ex | $1.00 |
Pool average: $1.48 USD. These are the regular hits — consistent but low value. A Double Rare pull in ME01 will rarely move the needle on profitability.
Chase Cards: Top 10 by Value
Mega Lucario ex and Mega Gardevoir ex dominate the value chart at every rarity tier — MHR, SIR, UR, and DR versions all exist for both. The top 5 cards alone account for the bulk of the expected hit value per pack. Pulling anything outside this tier will rarely offset the cost of opening.
Expected Value Per Pack
Using current PriceCharting market prices weighted by pull rates from Mega Evolution series community opening data, here is where the expected value of each pack comes from:
| Component | Pull Rate | Pool Avg (USD) | EV Contribution |
|---|---|---|---|
| Bulk (commons + uncommons) | 100% | $0.80 | $0.80 |
| Reverse Holo slot | 100% | $1.60 | $1.60 |
| Standard Rare (★) | 59.5% | $1.07 | $0.64 |
| Double Rare (★★ Mega ex) | 20.0% | $1.48 | $0.30 |
| Illustration Rare (★ IR) | 11.1% | $6.73 | $0.75 |
| Ultra Rare (#155–176) | 8.3% | $5.46 | $0.46 |
| SIR (#177–186) | 0.99% | $90.53 | $0.90 |
| Mega Hyper Rare (#187–188) | 0.079% | $236.48 | $0.19 |
Key observations from this table:
- SIR and Hyper Rare together contribute $1.09 of the $5.62 EV (~19%) — but they are the only path to a profitable pack opening session. Without them, every pack generates approximately $4.53 in value against a retail cost of $5.08.
- The IR pool contributes $0.75 — modest given 22 cards in the pool, because the majority are worth $2.50–$5 rather than the $21–$24 top IRs.
- Reverse Holo ($1.60) and Bulk ($0.80) together form the $2.40 floor — guaranteed value regardless of the hit slot. This floor is a large share of total EV, indicating the hit-slot variance is relatively contained.
Monte Carlo: Win vs Loss Odds
The EV table above gives averages. What actually happens to individual openers is driven by variance. The charts below show results from 100,000 simulated openings, drawing from the actual card pool prices and pull rates — not averages.
Each bar = $50 profit/loss range. Market box price ($308) is far above break-even ($202). 100,000 simulated openings. Prices from PriceCharting (USD), June 2026.
Win / Loss summary across all formats
| Scenario | Cost | Win % | Loss % | Median P/L | P5 (bad luck) | P95 (good luck) | Avg Return |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Pack — retail (~$5.08) | $5.08 | 17% | 83% | −$2 | −$2 | +$5 | 1.11× |
| Bundle — retail (~$30.48) | $30.48 | 25.9% | 74.1% | −$6 | −$10 | +$31 | 1.11× |
| Box — retail (~$182.88) | $182.88 | 39.8% | 60.2% | −$10 | −$43 | +$197 | 1.11× |
| Pack — market (~$11.45) | $11.45 | 4.2% | 95.8% | −$8 | −$8 | −$2 | 0.50× |
| Bundle — market (~$56.49) | $56.49 | 5.7% | 94.3% | −$32 | −$36 | +$7 | 0.60× |
| Box — market (~$307.98) | $307.98 | 12.1% | 87.9% | −$135 | −$168 | +$73 | 0.66× |
P5 = the outcome in the worst 5% of openings. P95 = the outcome in the best 5%. Win = profit > $0. Simulation: 100,000 runs, seed 42.
What these numbers mean in practice:
- The market bundle at 5.7% win rate is among the worst-value formats of any set in the Mega Evolution series — you lose money on roughly 94 in 100 sessions.
- The market box at 12.1% win rate has a median loss of −$135. That means half of all box openers at market price will finish down over $100 in card value versus what they paid.
- The retail box at 39.8% win rate is still a minority win scenario, but it is the best available format. The P95 of +$197 is achievable by hitting a top SIR or MHR.
- Market pack opening at 0.50× return means on average you destroy roughly half the value per pack opened at market. There is no format at market price that returns even 70 cents on the dollar on average.
The Break-Even Price
If the expected value per pack is $5.62 USD, the break-even prices for each product format are:
Singapore context: Retail packs in Singapore cost approximately SGD $6.50 each (USD ~$5.08), comfortably below the break-even pack price of $5.62. Retail boxes (USD ~$182.88) are also below break-even ($202.33). At Singapore retail, all three formats are positive expected value. At any price significantly above retail, opening becomes a losing proposition.
Sensitivity to SIR price changes
| SIR Price Scenario | EV per Pack | Break-even Bundle (USD) | Break-even Box (USD) |
|---|---|---|---|
| Current prices (June 2026) | $5.62 | ~$33.72 | ~$202.33 |
| SIRs −25% | ~$5.40 | ~$32.38 | ~$194.26 |
| SIRs −50% | ~$5.17 | ~$31.03 | ~$186.20 |
| SIRs −75% | ~$4.95 | ~$29.69 | ~$178.13 |
SIR contributes $0.90 of the $5.62 EV — about 16%. Because of this, SIR price drops have a relatively muted effect on break-even. Even a 75% SIR correction drops EV to ~$4.95 and brings the break-even box to ~$178. At that point, retail boxes (~$182.88) would still be close to break-even, and market boxes (~$307.98) would be even more deeply negative. The MHR cards are the more impactful variable — both are iconic enough to hold value, but monitor their prices if considering sealed investment.
What You Should Actually Do
If you want a specific card
Buy the single. Use the tcgTalk price comparison to find the best current Singapore price. For the Mega Lucario ex MHR at ~$261, opening packs is not realistic — the expected cost is roughly 2,520 packs (1 in 1,260 packs × 1/2 MHRs) in product at market pack price. For specific SIRs, expect to open ~1,010 packs on average to target a single named SIR.
If you want to open packs
Only open at retail prices. The retail box (39.8% win rate, median −$10, 1.11× return) is the best format — the break-even price of $202.33 is well above the Singapore retail box price of ~$182.88. Retail packs and bundles are positive EV but have lower win rates (17–25.9%) because a single pack rarely clears the cost bar without hitting something rare.
At market prices, there is no format worth opening for value. The market box at $307.98 costs over $100 above break-even — you would need to pull well above the expected number of SIRs or MHRs just to break even. Pass on market-priced sealed if your goal is value.
If you are buying sealed for investment
ME01 is the flagship set of the Mega Evolution series — Mega Lucario and Mega Gardevoir are among the most beloved characters in the franchise. Collector demand keeps sealed prices elevated well above EV. Whether that premium persists long-term depends on how the set is remembered relative to future releases. At current market box prices ($307.98), you are buying well above mathematical value; any appreciation requires the secondary card market to hold or grow.
If you already have cards to sell
Mega Lucario ex and Mega Gardevoir ex — in their SIR and MHR versions — are the set's most price-sensitive assets. SIR prices for new sets typically soften 20–40% in the first 3–6 months after peak hype. If you pulled one and are considering selling, acting closer to release tends to yield better prices. The IR cards (Bulbasaur, Ivysaur, Marshadow, Vulpix) at $16–$24 are more stable given their moderate price points and dedicated collectors for these Pokémon.
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Frequently Asked Questions
Is it worth opening Mega Evolution packs?
At Singapore retail (~SGD $6.50/pack), yes — EV is ~$7.19 SGD per pack (1.11× return). At market prices, all formats are negative EV (0.50× to 0.66×). The median outcome is a loss at every format and price point. Only open at retail; buy singles at market.
What is the most expensive Mega Evolution card?
Mega Lucario ex Mega Hyper Rare (#188) at approximately USD $261.37 (~SGD $335). Mega Lucario ex SIR (#179) at USD $213.57 (~SGD $273) and Mega Gardevoir ex MHR (#187) at USD $211.58 (~SGD $271) are the second and third most valuable cards in the set.
How many SIRs are in Mega Evolution?
10 Special Illustration Rares (#177–186) and 2 Mega Hyper Rares (#187–188), for 12 premium rarity cards above the standard IR tier. ME01's SIR pool is larger than some later sets, and its SIR prices run high on average — which is why the SIR slot still contributes a meaningful share of EV.
What is the cheapest SIR in Mega Evolution?
Lt. Surge's Bargain (#185) at USD $17.72 (~SGD $22.68) and Wally's Compassion (#186) at USD $22.01 (~SGD $28.17) are the lowest-value SIRs. The trainer SIRs consistently carry lower market prices than the Mega ex SIRs in this set.
How does Mega Evolution compare to Chaos Rising for pack opening?
Mega Evolution has a lower EV per pack than Chaos Rising but higher market product prices — making market opening significantly worse. Chaos Rising's box at market is roughly break-even; Mega Evolution's box at market is 0.66×. For retail opening, ME01 is mildly positive (1.11×). Chaos Rising offers better value at every price point by current numbers.
Are the IR cards in Mega Evolution worth pulling?
The top 4 IRs (Bulbasaur, Ivysaur, Marshadow, Vulpix at $16–$24) are solid pulls — they recover a meaningful portion of the pack cost at retail. The remaining 18 IRs average under $6, making them filler at market prices. ME01's wide 22-card IR pool dilutes the expected IR value significantly.
Disclaimer: All card prices are from PriceCharting market data (USD) as of June 2026 and are indicative of current secondary market rates — they will change. SGD equivalents use an approximate 1.28 exchange rate (June 2026). Pull rates are community estimates from Mega Evolution series aggregate opening data; The Pokemon Company does not publish official pull rates. Monte Carlo results use 100,000 simulated openings, seed 42. This is not financial advice. Verify current prices on tcgTalk or Carousell before making any buying or selling decisions.