Card prices are sourced from PriceCharting market data (USD). SGD equivalents use an approximate 1.28 exchange rate. Prices reflect current secondary market rates and will change as the set ages.
The Short Answer
Prismatic Evolutions is one of the most hyped Pokemon sets ever released — and the market prices reflect that. At current market rates, all three product formats are deeply negative expected value. The EV per pack is ~$7.01 but packs sell for $16.74 on the secondary market. Opening at market is essentially a donation to whoever sold you the product.
At Singapore retail (~SGD $6.50/pack ≈ USD $5.08), all formats are positive EV — but most individual packs still lose money. The entire expected value is concentrated in SIR pulls (2.22% rate, averaging $138 per pull), which requires luck. The 13.2% retail pack win rate means 87 out of 100 retail packs will return less than $5.08 in card value.
| Product | Retail Price (USD) | Market Price (USD) | Expected Card Value | Return at Retail | Verdict |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Booster Pack | ~$5.08 | ~$16.74 | $7.01 | 1.38× | +EV at retail. −EV at market (0.42×). |
| Booster Bundle (6 packs) | ~$30.48 | ~$79.12 | $42.05 | 1.38× | +EV at retail. −EV at market (0.53×). |
| ~Break-even bundle | ~$42.05 USD (SGD ~$53.83) | $42.05 | 1.0× | Expected value equals cost. | |
| Elite Trainer Box (9 packs) | ~$45.72 | ~$159.18 | $63.08 | 1.38× | +EV at retail. −EV at market (0.40×). |
| ~Break-even ETB | ~$63.08 USD (SGD ~$80.74) | $63.08 | 1.0× | Expected value equals cost. | |
Note on product formats: Prismatic Evolutions does not have a traditional 36-pack booster box. The primary formats are the Booster Pack, Booster Bundle (6 packs), and Elite Trainer Box (9 packs). The Booster Bundle Display Box contains 18 bundles (108 packs) and is a case-level purchase.
Pack Structure: Foil Slots Explained
Prismatic Evolutions uses the same foil slot mechanic as Paldean Fates and 151. Instead of a guaranteed standard reverse holo, the “foil slot” in each pack randomly falls into one of three categories:
| Foil Slot Type | Pull Rate | Avg Value (USD) | Notes |
|---|---|---|---|
| Master Ball foil | ~5.0% | $8.94 | Rarer pattern. Umbreon [Master Ball] at ~$80 drives this high. |
| Poke Ball foil | ~33.3% | $0.83 | Standard foil pattern. Most worth $0.30–$2.50. |
| Regular reverse holo | ~61.7% | ~$1.60 | Standard SV-era reverse holo. |
The Master Ball foil slot is a meaningful EV contributor — $0.45 per pack — primarily because Umbreon [Master Ball] (#59) is worth approximately USD $80.38 (~SGD $103). If you pull a Master Ball foil card, check immediately if it's the Umbreon. That single card accounts for a large share of the Master Ball slot's value.
The Poke Ball foil, despite hitting 1 in 3 packs, contributes only ~$0.28 per pack because most Poke Ball foil commons and uncommons are worth under $1.00. The Eeveelution Poke Ball foils (Umbreon $4.00, Vaporeon $2.47, Sylveon $2.01) are the standouts.
Card Prices by Rarity
Prismatic Evolutions (SV8.5) has 180 total cards. The Eeveelution theme creates extreme price concentration at the SIR tier — Umbreon ex SIR alone is worth more than the next three most expensive SIRs combined.
Hyper Rare (⭐) — #176–180
5 cards. The gold rainbow cards. Pull rate approximately 0.56% (~1 in 180 packs). Pikachu ex at $60 is the only standout; the rest are $5–$11.
| # | Card | Price (USD) | Price (SGD est.) |
|---|---|---|---|
| 179 | Pikachu ex | $60.00 | ~$77 |
| 177 | Teal Mask Ogerpon ex | $10.55 | ~$14 |
| 180 | Terapagos ex | $10.52 | ~$13 |
| 176 | Iron Leaves ex | $6.49 | ~$8 |
| 178 | Walking Wake ex | $5.90 | ~$8 |
Pool average: $18.69 USD. Pikachu ex severely skews the mean — median is $10.52. Pulling a non-Pikachu Hyper Rare at market pack price ($16.74) is a loss.
Special Illustration Rares (SIR) — #144–175
32 cards across two groups: full-art Eeveelution ex and other ex cards (#144–169), plus trainer character art (#170–175). Pull rate approximately 2.22% (~1 in 45 packs). This tier drives the majority of the set's expected value.
| # | Card | Price (USD) | Price (SGD est.) |
|---|---|---|---|
| 161 | Umbreon ex | $1,418.70 | ~$1,816 |
| 156 | Sylveon ex | $390.50 | ~$500 |
| 144 | Leafeon ex | $300.00 | ~$384 |
| 155 | Espeon ex | $289.66 | ~$371 |
| 149 | Vaporeon ex | $249.99 | ~$320 |
| 150 | Glaceon ex | $240.00 | ~$307 |
| 153 | Jolteon ex | $183.75 | ~$235 |
| 146 | Flareon ex | $183.33 | ~$235 |
| 162 | Roaring Moon ex | $169.26 | ~$217 |
| 167 | Eevee ex | $167.38 | ~$214 |
| 165 | Dragapult ex | $115.36 | ~$148 |
| 147 | Ceruledge ex | $91.47 | ~$117 |
| 166 | Raging Bolt ex | $68.76 | ~$88 |
| 168 | Bloodmoon Ursaluna ex | $65.32 | ~$84 |
| 157 | Iron Valiant ex | $44.02 | ~$56 |
| 151 | Palafin ex | $41.67 | ~$53 |
| 164 | Gholdengo ex | $40.18 | ~$51 |
| 171 | Crispin | $38.05 | ~$49 |
| 158 | Iron Crown ex | $34.00 | ~$44 |
| 154 | Iron Hands ex | $34.35 | ~$44 |
| 169 | Terapagos ex | $32.47 | ~$42 |
| 163 | Pecharunt ex | $29.66 | ~$38 |
| 175 | Lacey | $24.13 | ~$31 |
| 173 | Janine's Secret Art | $24.98 | ~$32 |
| 159 | Sandy Shocks ex | $23.28 | ~$30 |
| 174 | Kieran | $20.44 | ~$26 |
| 145 | Teal Mask Ogerpon ex | $19.72 | ~$25 |
| 148 | Hearthflame Mask Ogerpon ex | $19.27 | ~$25 |
| 160 | Cornerstone Mask Ogerpon ex | $17.43 | ~$22 |
| 172 | Drayton | $15.31 | ~$20 |
| 170 | Amarys | $15.10 | ~$19 |
| 152 | Wellspring Mask Ogerpon ex | $15.21 | ~$19 |
Pool average: $138.21 USD. Pool median: $40.92 USD. Umbreon ex ($1,419) violently skews the mean. If you pull a random SIR, the most likely outcome is a card worth $15–$50, not $138. Pulling Umbreon ex specifically (1 of 32 SIRs in the pool) is a 1-in-1,440-packs event.
Ultra Rare Trainer Full Arts (UR) — #132–143
12 trainer character art cards. Pull rate approximately 7.69% (~1 in 13 packs). Despite hitting frequently, these are among the cheapest rare pulls in the set — most are worth $1–$2.
| # | Card | Price (USD) |
|---|---|---|
| 136 | Eri | $2.09 |
| 137 | Friends in Paldea | $1.93 |
| 143 | Tyme | $1.87 |
| 140 | Mela | $1.84 |
| 133 | Atticus | $1.61 |
| 134 | Atticus | $1.62 |
| 132 | Amarys | $1.58 |
| 142 | Raifort | $1.59 |
| 141 | Ortega | $1.29 |
| 139 | Larry's Skill | $1.46 |
| 138 | Giacomo | $0.99 |
| 135 | Brassius | $1.02 |
Pool average: $1.57 USD. Pulling an Ultra Rare trainer in Prismatic Evolutions is a low-value outcome — these cards hit at 7.69% but are worth less than a double rare.
ACE SPEC Rares — #116, 117, 119, 128, 129, 131
6 reprinted ACE SPEC trainer cards. Pull rate approximately 4.76% (~1 in 21 packs). These are powerful game cards but the reprinted versions in PE are cheap — collectors prefer the original-set art.
| # | Card | Price (USD) |
|---|---|---|
| 117 | Maximum Belt | $1.52 |
| 119 | Prime Catcher | $1.47 |
| 128 | Scoop Up Cyclone | $1.45 |
| 116 | Max Rod | $1.22 |
| 129 | Sparkling Crystal | $1.27 |
| 131 | Treasure Tracker | $0.96 |
Pool average: $1.31 USD. These are playable cards but their reprint status keeps prices low. An ACE SPEC pull is slightly better than a common — but not by much.
Double Rares (★★ ex) — 25 in-set ex cards
The base-set ex cards within the main set (#001–131). Approximately 18% of packs. The Eeveelution ex cards command a premium over typical SV-era double rares due to the set's theme.
| # | Card | Price (USD) |
|---|---|---|
| 75 | Eevee ex | $5.64 |
| 60 | Umbreon ex | $5.00 |
| 14 | Flareon ex | $5.14 |
| 30 | Jolteon ex | $4.44 |
| 34 | Espeon ex | $4.03 |
| 41 | Sylveon ex | $3.98 |
| 6 | Leafeon ex | $3.93 |
| 26 | Glaceon ex | $3.75 |
| 23 | Vaporeon ex | $2.75 |
| 28 | Pikachu ex | $2.84 |
| 80 | Dudunsparce | $1.13 / $2.65 (Snorlax ex) |
| 12 | Teal Mask Ogerpon ex | $3.01 |
| 73 | Dragapult ex | $2.24 |
| 76 | Snorlax ex | $2.65 |
| 82 | Lugia ex | $2.16 |
| 11 | Hydrapple ex | $1.93 |
| 64 | Tyranitar ex | $1.76 |
| 31 | Iron Hands ex | $1.64 |
| 51 | Lucario ex | $1.58 |
| 56 | Sandy Shocks ex | $1.34 |
| 27 | Wellspring Mask Ogerpon ex | $1.32 |
| 17 | Hearthflame Mask Ogerpon ex | $1.17 |
| 91 | Noivern ex | $0.99 |
| 92 | Terapagos ex | $1.20 |
| 58 | Cornerstone Mask Ogerpon ex | $1.29 |
Pool average: $2.66 USD. Pool median: $2.24 USD. The Eeveelution double rares (Eevee ex, Flareon ex, Jolteon ex, Espeon ex, Sylveon ex, Leafeon ex, Glaceon ex, Umbreon ex) all command $4–$5.60 — meaningfully above typical SV-era double rares. Still, at market pack price ($16.74), even the best double rare is a significant loss.
Chase Cards: Top 10 by Value
The top 10 are all SIRs — and all 8 Eeveelution ex SIRs appear in the top 10. Umbreon ex at $1,419 is in a tier by itself: it is worth more than the next three most expensive SIRs combined ($390 + $300 + $290 = $980). The non-Eeveelution SIRs (Dragapult ex, Ceruledge ex, Raging Bolt ex) are notable at $69–$115 but are not the reason people open this set.
Expected Value Per Pack
Using current PriceCharting market prices weighted by pull rates from community opening data (1,200 packs), here is where the expected value of each pack comes from:
| Component | Pull Rate | Pool Avg (USD) | EV Contribution |
|---|---|---|---|
| Bulk (commons + uncommons) | 100% | $0.80 | $0.80 |
| Regular Reverse Holo | 61.7% | $1.60 | $0.99 |
| Poke Ball Foil | 33.3% | $0.83 | $0.28 |
| Master Ball Foil | 5.0% | $8.94 | $0.45 |
| Standard Rare (★) | 66.8% | $0.99 | $0.66 |
| Double Rare (★★ ex) | 18.0% | $2.66 | $0.48 |
| ACE SPEC Rare (★) | 4.76% | $1.31 | $0.06 |
| Ultra Rare Trainer (UR) | 7.69% | $1.57 | $0.12 |
| Special Illustration Rare (SIR) | 2.22% | $138.21 | $3.07 |
| Hyper Rare (⭐) | 0.56% | $18.69 | $0.10 |
Key observations:
- SIR contributes $3.07 of $7.01 EV (44%) — this is entirely driven by Umbreon ex ($1,419) inflating the pool average. Without Umbreon ex, the SIR pool average would be ~$44/card and contribute ~$1.07/pack. Umbreon ex alone adds ~$0.99 per pack to EV.
- The Master Ball foil slot adds $0.45 per pack — surprisingly meaningful, because Umbreon [Master Ball] (#59) at $80.38 and other Eeveelution Master Balls ($24–$31) are pull-worthy cards.
- Ultra Rare trainers (7.69% rate) contribute only $0.12 — they hit often but are worth less than most double rares. An UR trainer pull is one of the worst hits in this set.
- ACE SPEC cards contribute nearly nothing ($0.06) despite a 4.76% rate. These are reprints and the market does not value them.
- The floor of any pack is approximately $2.53 (bulk $0.80 + avg foil slot $1.22 + expected rare hit floor). At retail $5.08, losing $2.50 per pack is the typical outcome without a DR or better hit.
Monte Carlo: Win vs Loss Odds
The EV table above gives averages. What actually happens to individual openers is driven by variance. The charts below show results from 100,000 simulated openings, drawing from the actual card pool prices and pull rates — not averages.
Each bar = $10 profit/loss range. ··· = empty gap. The +$1355 cluster is hitting Umbreon ex SIR. 100,000 simulated openings. Prices from PriceCharting (USD), May 2026.
Win / Loss summary across all formats
| Scenario | Cost | Win % | Loss % | Median P/L | P5 (bad luck) | P95 (good luck) | Avg Return |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Pack — retail (~$5.08) | $5.08 | 13.2% | 86.8% | −$2 | −$3 | +$3 | 1.38× |
| Bundle — retail (~$30.48) | $30.48 | 20.3% | 79.7% | −$8 | −$13 | +$78 | 1.39× |
| ETB — retail (~$45.72) | $45.72 | 24.5% | 75.5% | −$11 | −$18 | +$166 | 1.39× |
| Pack — market (~$16.74) | $16.74 | 3.1% | 96.9% | −$13 | −$15 | −$8 | 0.42× |
| Bundle — market (~$79.12) | $79.12 | 6.7% | 93.3% | −$57 | −$62 | +$30 | 0.54× |
| ETB — market (~$159.18) | $159.18 | 6.3% | 93.7% | −$125 | −$132 | +$52 | 0.40× |
P5 = the outcome in the worst 5% of openings. P95 = the outcome in the best 5%. Win = profit > $0. Simulation: 100,000 runs, seed 42. DR rate estimated at 18% (NaN in community data).
What these numbers mean in practice:
- The market pack P95 is −$8 — meaning even the top 5% of market pack openings is a loss. You need to be in roughly the top 3% (hit a SIR or Pikachu HR) to profit at market prices.
- At retail, the ETB is the best format with 24.5% win rate. Even so, 3 in 4 ETB openings lose money. The P95 of +$166 represents hitting a mid-tier SIR like Eevee ex, Roaring Moon ex, or Dragapult ex.
- The histogram shows a characteristic pattern: a huge loss cluster around −$57 for the bundle (most packs returning ~$42 in bulk + foils + low-value hits against a $79 cost), a thin positive tail from mid-tier SIRs ($100–350 profit), and a tiny jackpot cluster at +$1,355 from pulling Umbreon ex SIR.
- Opening a 9-pack ETB at market gives you a median loss of $125. You would need to open approximately 16 ETBs at market to expect one SIR pull — at a total cost of roughly $2,547 in product versus ~$138 average SIR value.
The Break-Even Price
If the expected value per pack is $7.01 USD, the break-even prices for each product format are:
Singapore context: Retail packs in Singapore cost approximately SGD $6.50 each (USD ~$5.08), below the break-even pack price of $7.01. Retail ETBs (~SGD $58 / USD ~$45.72) are below the break-even ETB ($63.08). At Singapore retail, all formats are positive expected value — but barely. The win rates remain low because variance is extreme.
Sensitivity to SIR price changes
The SIR tier (specifically Umbreon ex) is responsible for 44% of total EV. Price sensitivity here is high:
| SIR Price Scenario | EV per Pack | Break-even Bundle (USD) | Break-even ETB (USD) |
|---|---|---|---|
| Current prices (May 2026) | $7.01 | ~$42.05 | ~$63.08 |
| SIRs −25% | ~$6.24 | ~$37.44 | ~$56.16 |
| SIRs −50% | ~$5.47 | ~$32.82 | ~$49.23 |
| SIRs −75% | ~$4.71 | ~$28.26 | ~$42.39 |
A 50% SIR price correction (which would still leave Umbreon ex at ~$709) would push the break-even ETB to $49.23. At that point, Singapore retail ETBs (~$45.72) would be marginally negative EV. If Umbreon ex declines significantly, the entire EV proposition of opening this set degrades rapidly.
What You Should Actually Do
If you want Umbreon ex SIR specifically
Buy the single. At USD $1,419 (~SGD $1,816), it sounds expensive — but opening packs to find it costs far more. The expected cost to pull any SIR is ~45 packs ($753 at market). To hit Umbreon ex specifically — 1 of 32 SIRs — you would need approximately 1,440 packs on average, at a market cost of roughly $24,000. Use the tcgTalk price comparison to find the best current Singapore price for the single.
If you want to open for fun
Open at Singapore retail (~SGD $6.50/pack) and accept the odds. The ETB at retail gives 24.5% win rate — about 1 in 4 sessions turns a profit. The experience of opening Eeveelution packs and seeing which foil pattern appears is genuinely fun, but the median outcome is a loss. Set a budget and stick to it. Opening one ETB at retail (~SGD $58) is a reasonable experience budget. Opening multiple ETBs at market in pursuit of an SIR is not rational expected value play.
Look for bundles priced close to the break-even bundle price (~SGD $54 / USD $42). At that price you are roughly EV-neutral, and any SIR pull is pure upside.
If you already hold sealed product
Prismatic Evolutions sealed product remains elevated above EV. The ETB at $159 market is 2.52× break-even — significant premium. If you hold sealed ETBs bought at retail (~$46), you are sitting on roughly 3.5× paper return. The sealed premium tends to compress over 12–24 months as print runs reach the market. Whether to hold or sell depends on your view of how long the premium persists.
If you are watching the market
The Eeveelution SIR prices (Umbreon especially) have stayed elevated since release due to continued demand from collectors and players. Watch for Umbreon ex corrections on Carousell and SNKRDUNK — the single is much more efficient than product. The Master Ball foil Umbreon (#59) at $80 is a notable secondary target that provides Umbreon exposure at a fraction of the SIR price.
Frequently Asked Questions
Is it worth opening Prismatic Evolutions packs?
At Singapore retail (~SGD $6.50/pack), yes mathematically — EV is ~$8.97 SGD per pack (1.38× return). But only 13.2% of individual packs return a profit, because 44% of the EV lives in SIR cards that hit at 2.22%. At market prices ($16.74/pack), opening is 0.42× EV — deeply negative. For most people, buying singles is better value than opening for specific cards.
What is the most expensive Prismatic Evolutions card?
Umbreon ex SIR (#161) at approximately USD $1,418.70 (~SGD $1,816). It is in a tier by itself — the next card, Sylveon ex SIR (#156), is $390. The eight Eeveelution SIRs (Umbreon, Sylveon, Leafeon, Espeon, Vaporeon, Glaceon, Jolteon, Flareon) all exceed $183.
What is the rarest card in Prismatic Evolutions?
By pull rate, the Hyper Rare cards (#176–180) are the rarest at ~0.56% (1 in 180 packs). Any specific SIR (#144–175) is approximately 1 in 1,440 packs (2.22% SIR rate ÷ 32 cards). Umbreon ex SIR specifically is approximately 1 in 1,440 packs.
How does Prismatic Evolutions compare to other sets for opening?
Prismatic Evolutions has similar EV per pack (~$7.01) to Chaos Rising (~$7.05), but very different product pricing. Chaos Rising booster boxes at market ($236) were below the break-even box price ($253), making box opening technically positive EV. No PE format at market is above break-even — the market premium is simply too high. For comparable fun at better odds, retail PE is excellent; market PE is not.
What is a “God Pack” in Prismatic Evolutions?
A God Pack is a rumoured pack variant where all cards are SIR-rarity — essentially every card in the pack is a chase card. It is an extremely rare phenomenon. See our Prismatic Evolutions Pull Rates & God Pack guide for more details on the probability and community data.
What is the Poke Ball vs Master Ball foil in Prismatic Evolutions?
These are two foil patterns that replace the standard reverse holo in ~38% of packs. Poke Ball foils appear in 1 in 3 packs (~$0.83 avg) and Master Ball foils in 1 in 20 packs (~$8.94 avg). The Master Ball foil is far more desirable because the Umbreon Master Ball (#59) is worth ~$80 and Eeveelution Master Balls ($25–$31 each) are collectible. If you pull a Master Ball foil, check which card it is immediately.
Disclaimer: All card prices are from PriceCharting market data (USD) as of May 2026 and are indicative of current secondary market rates — they will change. SGD equivalents use an approximate 1.28 exchange rate (May 2026). Pull rates are community estimates from aggregate opening data (1,200 packs tracked); The Pokemon Company does not publish official pull rates. The Double Rare rate (18%) is an estimate — it is not broken out in the community dataset. Monte Carlo results use 100,000 simulated openings, seed 42. This is not financial advice. Verify current prices on tcgTalk or Carousell before making any buying or selling decisions.