Card prices are sourced from PriceCharting market data (USD). SGD equivalents use an approximate 1.28 exchange rate. Prices reflect current secondary market rates and will change as the set ages.
The Short Answer
Prismatic Evolutions is the most hyped Pokemon set in years — and market prices reflect it. At current secondary-market prices, every product format is deeply negative expected value. The EV per pack is ~$6.86 but packs sell for $$12.25 on the secondary market. At Singapore retail, all three formats are positive EV on average — but the median pack is still a loss because the value is so top-heavy.
| Product | Retail Price (USD) | Market Price (USD) | Expected Card Value | Return at Retail | Verdict |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Booster Pack | ~$5.08 | ~$12.25 | $6.86 | 1.33× | +EV at retail. −EV at market (0.53×). |
| Booster Bundle (6 packs) | ~$30.48 | ~$84.28 | $41.14 | 1.35× | +EV at retail. −EV at market (0.50×). |
| Elite Trainer Box (9 packs) | ~$45.72 | ~$155 | $61.71 | 1.34× | +EV at retail. −EV at market (0.40×). |
Product format note: Prismatic Evolutions (SV8.5) has no traditional 36-pack booster box. The main formats are the Booster Pack, Booster Bundle (6 packs), and Elite Trainer Box (9 packs).
The market ETB, explained: The Elite Trainer Box market price ($155) sits at roughly 2.5× the mathematical break-even point ($61.71) — a steep premium driven by the set's ongoing hype. Opening at market is clearly negative EV (0.40× expected return), and the median outcome is a loss (−$121 at market), because most of the value is concentrated in SIR pulls that require luck.
Buy Prismatic Evolutions on TCGPlayer
Pack Structure: Foil Slots Explained
Prismatic Evolutions uses a special foil-slot mechanic. Instead of a guaranteed standard reverse holo, the “foil slot” in each pack falls randomly into one of three categories:
| Foil Slot Type | Pull Rate | Avg Value (USD) | Avg Value (SGD est.) |
|---|---|---|---|
| Master Ball foil | ~5.0% | $8.94 | ~$11.44 |
| Poke Ball foil | ~33.3% | $0.83 | ~$1.06 |
| Regular reverse holo | ~61.7% | ~$1.60 | ~$2.05 |
The Master Ball slot is a meaningful EV contributor — $0.45 per pack — largely because the Master Ball Umbreon is worth well into the tens of dollars. If you pull a Master Ball foil, check immediately whether it is the Umbreon.
Card Prices by Rarity
Special Illustration Rares (SIR) — #144–175
32 cards. The main chase tier. Pull rate approximately 2.22% (~1 in 45 packs). The price range is extreme — from $12.48 to $1,312.50.
| # | Card | Price (USD) | Price (SGD est.) |
|---|---|---|---|
| 161 | Umbreon ex | $1,312.50 | ~$1,680 |
| 156 | Sylveon ex | $475.00 | ~$608 |
| 144 | Leafeon ex | $298.82 | ~$382 |
| 155 | Espeon ex | $290.00 | ~$371 |
| 149 | Vaporeon ex | $267.40 | ~$342 |
| 150 | Glaceon ex | $260.80 | ~$334 |
| 146 | Flareon ex | $179.96 | ~$230 |
| 153 | Jolteon ex | $175.60 | ~$225 |
| 162 | Roaring Moon ex | $159.99 | ~$205 |
| 167 | Eevee ex | $151.76 | ~$194 |
| 165 | Dragapult ex | $105.00 | ~$134 |
| 147 | Ceruledge ex | $96.96 | ~$124 |
| 166 | Raging Bolt ex | $65.45 | ~$83.78 |
| 168 | Bloodmoon Ursaluna ex | $60.47 | ~$77.40 |
| 164 | Gholdengo ex | $49.11 | ~$62.86 |
| 157 | Iron Valiant ex | $46.50 | ~$59.52 |
| 151 | Palafin ex | $41.03 | ~$52.52 |
| 154 | Iron Hands ex | $29.79 | ~$38.13 |
| 163 | Pecharunt ex | $29.43 | ~$37.67 |
| 158 | Iron Crown ex | $29.27 | ~$37.47 |
| 171 | Crispin | $28.81 | ~$36.88 |
| 169 | Terapagos ex | $28.02 | ~$35.87 |
| 159 | Sandy Shocks ex | $25.66 | ~$32.84 |
| 173 | Janine's Secret Art | $24.44 | ~$31.28 |
| 175 | Lacey | $23.34 | ~$29.88 |
| 174 | Kieran | $18.84 | ~$24.12 |
| 145 | Teal Mask Ogerpon ex | $18.75 | ~$24.00 |
| 148 | Hearthflame Mask Ogerpon ex | $18.02 | ~$23.07 |
| 152 | Wellspring Mask Ogerpon ex | $17.07 | ~$21.85 |
| 172 | Drayton | $15.04 | ~$19.25 |
| 160 | Cornerstone Mask Ogerpon ex | $13.16 | ~$16.84 |
| 170 | Amarys | $12.48 | ~$15.97 |
Pool average: $136.51 USD. Pool median: $43.77 USD. The mean is heavily skewed by Umbreon ex — if you pull an SIR, you are most likely to land near the median, not the average.
Hyper Rare (⭐) — #176–180
5 cards. Gold rainbow cards. Pull rate approximately 0.56% (~1 in 180 packs). Pikachu ex at $52.42 is the only standout; the rest sit around $10 or below.
| # | Card | Price (USD) | Price (SGD est.) |
|---|---|---|---|
| 179 | Pikachu ex | $52.42 | ~$67.10 |
| 180 | Terapagos ex | $9.80 | ~$12.54 |
| 177 | Teal Mask Ogerpon ex | $8.86 | ~$11.34 |
| 178 | Walking Wake ex | $6.84 | ~$8.76 |
| 176 | Iron Leaves ex | $5.72 | ~$7.32 |
Pool average: $16.73 USD. Pool median: $8.86 USD. Pulling a Hyper Rare other than Pikachu ex at market pack prices is a loss.
Double Rares (★★ ex) — 25 ex cards in the set
About 18% of packs. The Eeveelution ex cards command a premium over typical SV-era double rares — Eevee ex, Flareon ex, and Jolteon ex are all a few dollars each.
| # | Card | Price (USD) | Price (SGD est.) |
|---|---|---|---|
| 60 | Umbreon ex | $7.07 | ~$9.05 |
| 75 | Eevee ex | $5.26 | ~$6.73 |
| 6 | Leafeon ex | $4.80 | ~$6.14 |
| 14 | Flareon ex | $4.69 | ~$6.00 |
| 34 | Espeon ex | $4.13 | ~$5.29 |
| 30 | Jolteon ex | $3.57 | ~$4.57 |
| 23 | Vaporeon ex | $3.47 | ~$4.44 |
| 41 | Sylveon ex | $2.99 | ~$3.83 |
| 26 | Glaceon ex | $2.99 | ~$3.83 |
| 28 | Pikachu ex | $2.78 | ~$3.56 |
| 12 | Teal Mask Ogerpon ex | $2.77 | ~$3.55 |
| 76 | Snorlax ex | $1.99 | ~$2.55 |
| 73 | Dragapult ex | $1.97 | ~$2.52 |
| 82 | Lugia ex | $1.54 | ~$1.97 |
| 91 | Noivern ex | $1.35 | ~$1.73 |
| 51 | Lucario ex | $1.13 | ~$1.45 |
| 11 | Hydrapple ex | $1.12 | ~$1.43 |
| 27 | Wellspring Mask Ogerpon ex | $1.03 | ~$1.32 |
| 58 | Cornerstone Mask Ogerpon ex | $1.00 | ~$1.28 |
| 64 | Tyranitar ex | $1.00 | ~$1.28 |
| 92 | Terapagos ex | $0.98 | ~$1.25 |
| 80 | Dudunsparce | $0.92 | ~$1.18 |
| 17 | Hearthflame Mask Ogerpon ex | $0.84 | ~$1.08 |
| 31 | Iron Hands ex | $0.83 | ~$1.06 |
| 56 | Sandy Shocks ex | $0.72 | ~$0.92 |
Pool average: $2.44 USD. Pool median: $1.97 USD.
Ultra Rare Trainer Full Art (UR) — #132–143
12 character-art trainer cards. Pull rate approximately 7.69% (~1 in 13 packs). Frequent hits but low value — most are around a dollar or two.
| # | Card | Price (USD) | Price (SGD est.) |
|---|---|---|---|
| 137 | Friends in Paldea | $1.44 | ~$1.84 |
| 136 | Eri | $1.40 | ~$1.79 |
| 140 | Mela | $1.00 | ~$1.28 |
| 142 | Raifort | $1.00 | ~$1.28 |
| 139 | Larry's Skill | $1.00 | ~$1.28 |
| 133 | Atticus | $0.99 | ~$1.27 |
| 135 | Brassius | $0.99 | ~$1.27 |
| 132 | Amarys | $0.97 | ~$1.24 |
| 134 | Atticus | $0.96 | ~$1.23 |
| 138 | Giacomo | $0.93 | ~$1.19 |
| 141 | Ortega | $0.89 | ~$1.14 |
| 143 | Tyme | $0.81 | ~$1.04 |
Pool average: $1.03 USD. Pulling an Ultra Rare trainer is one of the weakest outcomes in this set.
ACE SPEC Rare — #116, 117, 119, 128, 129, 131
6 reprinted ACE SPEC trainer cards. Pull rate approximately 4.76% (~1 in 21 packs). Playable cards but low priced due to reprint status.
| # | Card | Price (USD) | Price (SGD est.) |
|---|---|---|---|
| 116 | Max Rod | $0.99 | ~$1.27 |
| 117 | Maximum Belt | $0.99 | ~$1.27 |
| 129 | Sparkling Crystal | $0.97 | ~$1.24 |
| 119 | Prime Catcher | $0.87 | ~$1.11 |
| 131 | Treasure Tracker | $0.80 | ~$1.02 |
| 128 | Scoop Up Cyclone | $0.78 | ~$1.00 |
Pool average: $0.9 USD.
Chase Cards: Top 10 by Value
The top 10 are all SIRs — and all 8 Eeveelution ex SIRs appear in the list. Umbreon ex at $1,312.50 is in a class of its own: it is worth more than the next three most expensive SIRs combined.
Expected Value Per Pack
Using current PriceCharting market prices weighted by pull rates from community opening data, here is where the expected value of each pack comes from:
| Component | Pull Rate | Pool Avg (USD) | EV Contribution |
|---|---|---|---|
| Bulk (commons + uncommons) | 100% | $0.80 | $0.80 |
| Regular Reverse Holo | 61.7% | $1.60 | $0.99 |
| Poke Ball Foil | 33.3% | $0.83 | $0.28 |
| Master Ball Foil | 5.0% | $8.94 | $0.45 |
| Standard Rare (★) | 66.8% | $0.99 | $0.66 |
| Double Rare (★★ ex) | 18.0% | $2.44 | $0.44 |
| ACE SPEC Rare | 4.76% | $0.90 | $0.04 |
| Ultra Rare Trainer (UR) | 7.69% | $1.03 | $0.08 |
| Special Illustration Rare (SIR) | 2.22% | $136.51 | $3.03 |
| Hyper Rare (⭐) | 0.56% | $16.73 | $0.09 |
SIR contributes $3.03 of the $6.86 EV (~44%) — almost all of it driven by Umbreon ex ($1,312.50) lifting the pool average. Without Umbreon ex, the SIR contribution would fall by roughly two-thirds.
Monte Carlo: Win vs Loss Odds
The EV table above gives averages. What actually happens to individual openers is driven by variance. The charts below show results from 100,000 simulated openings, drawing from the actual card pool prices and pull rates — not averages.
Each bar = $10 profit/loss range. ··· = empty gap. The +$110 cluster is a mid-tier SIR; an Umbreon ex SIR lands far off-chart at ~+$1,200. 100,000 simulated openings. Prices from PriceCharting (USD), September 2026.
Win / Loss summary across all formats
| Scenario | Cost | Win % | Loss % | Median P/L | P5 (bad luck) | P95 (good luck) | Avg Return |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Pack — retail (~$5.08) | $5.08 | 10.7% | 89.3% | −$2 | −$2 | +$2 | 1.33× |
| Bundle — retail (~$30.48) | $30.48 | 14.4% | 85.6% | −$8 | −$10 | +$59 | 1.35× |
| ETB — retail (~$45.72) | $45.72 | 18.3% | 81.7% | −$11 | −$14 | +$160 | 1.34× |
| Pack — market (~$12.25) | $12.25 | 2.3% | 97.7% | −$9 | −$9 | −$5 | 0.53× |
| Bundle — market (~$84.28) | $84.28 | 5.6% | 94.4% | −$62 | −$63 | +$33 | 0.50× |
| ETB — market (~$155.00) | $155 | 6.2% | 93.8% | −$121 | −$124 | +$51 | 0.40× |
P5 = the outcome in the worst 5% of openings. P95 = the outcome in the best 5%. Win = profit > $0. Simulation: 100,000 runs, seed 42.
The Break-Even Price
If the expected value per pack is $6.86 USD, the break-even prices for each product format are:
What You Should Actually Do
If you want the Umbreon ex SIR specifically
Buy the single. At $1,312.50 it looks expensive — but opening packs to find it is far more expensive. The expected cost to pull any SIR is ~45 packs (~$551 at market prices). For Umbreon ex specifically — 1 of 32 SIRs — you would need roughly 1,440 packs on average. Use the tcgTalk price comparison to find the best Singapore price for the single.
If you want to open packs for fun
Buy at Singapore retail (~$5.08/pack) and accept the odds. The ETB at retail gives a 18.3% win rate. Set a firm budget — opening one ETB at retail (~$45.72) is a reasonable experience budget. Look for bundles priced near the break-even bundle (~$41.14) for the closest thing to EV-neutral.
If you already hold sealed product
Prismatic Evolutions sealed remains well above EV. The ETB at $155 market is ~2.5× break-even — a significant premium. If you hold an ETB bought at retail (~$45.72), you have a paper return of roughly 3.4×. Sealed premiums typically compress over 12–24 months as additional print runs reach the market.
Frequently Asked Questions
Is it worth opening Prismatic Evolutions packs?
At Singapore retail (~$5.08/pack), yes mathematically — EV is ~SGD $8.78 per pack (1.33×). But only 10.7% of individual packs turn a profit. At market prices ($12.25/pack), opening is 0.53× EV — deeply negative. For most people, buying singles is better value.
What is the most expensive Prismatic Evolutions card right now?
Umbreon ex SIR (#161) at approximately USD $1,312.50 (~SGD $1,680). It is in a class of its own — the next card, Sylveon ex SIR (#156), is ~$$475.00. All 8 Eeveelution SIRs are worth over $176.
Does Prismatic Evolutions have a booster box?
No — Prismatic Evolutions (SV8.5) has no traditional 36-pack booster box. The main formats are the Booster Pack (1 pack), Booster Bundle (6 packs), and Elite Trainer Box (9 packs).
What are Poke Ball vs Master Ball foils in Prismatic Evolutions?
These are two foil patterns that replace the standard reverse holo in ~38% of packs. Poke Ball foil appears in about 1 in 3 packs (~$0.83 average) and Master Ball foil in about 1 in 20 packs (~$8.94 average). If you pull a Master Ball foil, check whether it is the Umbreon — that card carries most of the slot's value.
Disclaimer: All card prices are from PriceCharting market data (USD) as of September 2026 and are indicative of current secondary market rates — they will change. SGD equivalents use an approximate 1.28 exchange rate. Pull rates are community estimates from aggregate opening data. Monte Carlo results use 100,000 simulated openings, seed 42. This is not financial advice. Verify current prices on tcgTalk or Carousell before making any buying or selling decisions.