500-Pack Opening: The Real Data
A documented 500-pack opening of Surging Sparks produced the results below. This is real data from a large-sample case opening — one of the more statistically meaningful sample sizes available for this set — and illustrates both the expected hit rates and the considerable variance that collectors face pack to pack.
What was opened
- 500 booster packs total (multiple cases)
- Standard English Surging Sparks booster packs
- No product type filtering — mixed across booster boxes and ETBs
Hits pulled
- 85 EX cards (~1 in 6 packs)
- 25 Ace Specs (~1 in 20 packs) — 8 different Ace Specs across the set
- 39 Illustration Rares (IRs) (~1 in 13 packs) — out of 23 total IRs in set
- 22 Full Art Pokémon (~1 in 23 packs) — out of 14 unique Full Art Pokémon
- 12 Full Art Trainers (~1 in 42 packs) — out of 7 Full Art Trainers in set
- 5 Gold cards (~1 in 100 packs) — including 2× Pikachu EX gold
- 7 SIRs (~1 in 71 packs) — Clement's Quick Wit, Alolan Executor, Lisa's Appeal, Jasmine's Gaze, Ludos EX, Alolan Executor (×2), Pikachu EX
Hit rate breakdown
- EX cards: ~17% (1 in ~6 packs)
- Ace Spec: ~5% (1 in ~20 packs)
- Illustration Rare (IR): ~7.8% (1 in ~13 packs)
- Full Art Pokémon: ~4.4% (1 in ~23 packs)
- Full Art Trainer: ~2.4% (1 in ~42 packs)
- Gold card: ~1% (1 in ~100 packs)
- SIR: ~1.4% (1 in ~71 packs)
Key takeaway: Surging Sparks is a hit-dense set by Scarlet & Violet standards. Even without SIRs, a booster box will typically deliver several EX cards, at least one Ace Spec, multiple IRs, and a good spread of full arts. The SIR rate of ~1 in 71 is more generous than sets like Ascended Heroes — but hitting your specific target SIR remains a very different proposition.
Surging Sparks SIR Pull Rates: What the Numbers Say
The Pokemon Company does not publish official pull rates for Surging Sparks or any other set. The estimates below are derived from the 500-pack opening documented above, cross-referenced with community aggregate data from collectors globally.
| Card Type | Est. Per Pack | Per ETB (9 packs) | Per Booster Box (36 packs) | Variance |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Secret Illustration Rare (SIR) | ~1 in 71 | ~1 in 8 ETBs | ~1 per 2 boxes | High — clustering common, dry boxes happen |
| Gold Card | ~1 in 100 | ~1 in 11 ETBs | ~1 per 3 boxes | Very high — rare enough to feel exceptional |
| Full Art Trainer | ~1 in 42 | ~1 in 5 ETBs | ~0.8 per box | Moderate — not guaranteed per box |
| Full Art Pokémon | ~1 in 23 | ~0.4 per ETB | ~1.5 per box | Low-moderate — reliably 1–2 per box |
| Illustration Rare (IR) | ~1 in 13 | ~0.7 per ETB | ~2.8 per box | Low — among the most consistent hits |
| Ace Spec | ~1 in 20 | ~0.45 per ETB | ~1.8 per box | Low — roughly guaranteed per box |
| EX Card | ~1 in 6 | ~1.5 per ETB | ~6 per box | Very low — highly consistent |
Why variance still matters at these rates
Even with an SIR rate of ~1 in 71, the variance in any single session is significant:
- Opening one booster box (36 packs) gives roughly a 40% chance of pulling an SIR — meaning most single-box sessions end with zero
- Print run batching means SIRs can cluster into specific cases, leaving adjacent cases dry
- The 500-pack opening pulled 7 SIRs — but distribution across individual boxes within that 500 would not be uniform
- Small samples (1–2 boxes) are too small to draw conclusions about personal luck or set rates
Chasing a specific SIR: the real odds
- Total SIRs in set: 11 (7 Pokémon SIRs + 4 Trainer SIRs)
- Avg packs per any SIR: ~71
- Avg packs per specific SIR: ~781
- At 36 packs per booster box, that is roughly 22 booster boxes per specific SIR on average
- Verdict: For a specific card, buy the single. The math does not favour pack opening as a targeting strategy.
The Pikachu SIR: Why It's the Biggest Chase
The Pikachu EX Secret Illustration Rare is the headline card of Surging Sparks — and one of the most talked-about pulls in any English Scarlet & Violet set. Its significance goes beyond just being a chase card in a single set.
Why this Pikachu SIR is different
- First ever Pikachu SIR in the Scarlet & Violet era — prior to Surging Sparks, Pikachu had not appeared as a Secret Illustration Rare in the SV card format
- Pikachu as a character commands a demand premium across all product types — any Pikachu card in the top rarity tier draws buyers well beyond the standard collector base
- The full art treatment on Pikachu EX SIR is widely considered one of the cleanest, most visually striking cards in the entire set
- Strong crossover appeal: desirable to competitive players, collectors, casual fans, and gift buyers simultaneously
- The gold version of Pikachu EX was pulled twice in the 500-pack opening — confirming it is among the more commonly featured cards even in the rarer tiers
Pikachu SIR vs other Pikachu cards
Surging Sparks has a Pikachu EX at multiple rarity levels — standard EX, IR, full art, SIR, and gold. The SIR is the pinnacle of the Pikachu chase in this set. Collectors targeting the complete Pikachu rainbow (all rarities of the same card) will find Surging Sparks one of the best sets ever released for that goal.
Hydreigon EX SIR: The Runner-Up Chase
If the Pikachu EX SIR is the headline chase, the Hydreigon EX SIR is the collector's choice — widely regarded as the best pure art in the entire set, and consistently in demand among collectors who prioritise illustration quality over name recognition.
Why Hydreigon EX SIR stands out
- The illustration has a dramatic, atmospheric quality that collectors have compared to standout Moon Bon-era artwork from previous sets
- Hydreigon is the dragon anchor of Surging Sparks — the set draws directly from the Japanese Paradise Dragona set, making Hydreigon EX the thematic centrepiece
- Strong long-term demand: Hydreigon has a dedicated competitive and collector following, and high-rarity Hydreigon cards historically hold value well
- The contrast between Hydreigon's dark, menacing design and the full-bleed SIR art treatment makes it one of the more visually distinctive cards in the SV era
Alolan Executor EX SIR: notable mention
The Alolan Executor EX SIR was among the first SIRs pulled in the 500-pack opening — and its rainbow border treatment drew immediate attention. The Alolan Executor design translates exceptionally well to the full-bleed SIR format. It is not the top chase, but it is widely considered a beautiful card and commands meaningful collector interest.
Full SIR list in Surging Sparks
There are 11 total SIRs in Surging Sparks:
- Pokémon SIRs (7): Durant, Milotic, Slaking, Pikachu EX, Latios EX, Archaludon, Alolan Executor EX
- Trainer SIRs (4): Lisa's Appeal, Drayton, Clement's Quick Wit, Jasmine's Gaze
The Durant SIR has a unique feature: 10 copies of the card placed side by side form a single cohesive panoramic illustration. It is the kind of collectible mechanic that rewards set completionists specifically.
IRs vs SIRs: What You'll Actually Pull More Of
In any Surging Sparks opening session, Illustration Rares will be your most common premium pull by a significant margin. At roughly 1 in 13 packs, IRs hit around five times more frequently than SIRs — and with 23 distinct IRs in the set, there is genuine variety in what you open.
Why IRs matter in Surging Sparks
- 23 total IRs — one of the larger IR pools in any Scarlet & Violet set
- The 500-pack opening pulled 39 IRs — roughly 1.7 per box on average
- Latios EX IR is notably valuable relative to its rarity tier — collector demand for Latios has been underestimated by the market historically
- IRs in Surging Sparks benefit from the dual-theme set design (dragon cards from Paradise Dragona + electric/Pikachu cards from Supercharged Breaker) — hits feel thematically varied
- From a pure opening experience standpoint, the high IR rate means most sessions produce at least one visually striking card even without hitting SIR territory
IRs vs SIRs: direct comparison
| Metric | Illustration Rares (IR) | Secret Illustration Rares (SIR) |
|---|---|---|
| Total unique cards in set | 23 | 11 |
| Pull rate (est.) | ~1 in 13 packs | ~1 in 71 packs |
| Per booster box (36 packs) | ~2–3 IRs | ~0–1 SIRs |
| From 500-pack opening | 39 pulled | 7 pulled |
| Typical market value | Lower (varies by card) | Higher (varies by card) |
Collector angle: If you enjoy the opening experience, the IR rate in Surging Sparks is high enough that most boxes deliver genuine hits. You are unlikely to open a box and feel nothing — unlike sets where only SIRs register as exciting pulls, Surging Sparks IRs are desirable in their own right.
What This Means For Singapore Collectors
If you want a specific SIR
Buy the single. The Pikachu EX SIR, Hydreigon EX SIR, and Alolan Executor EX SIR are all available from Singapore sellers. At the expected pack cost to pull a specific SIR (~22 booster boxes), buying outright is orders of magnitude more efficient. Use the tcgTalk price comparison to find the best current listing from Singapore collectors.
If you want to open packs
Set a clear budget upfront and treat any SIR as a bonus rather than the target. At ~1 in 71 packs, Surging Sparks is more generous than some other sets — but the odds are still firmly against hitting in any single session. The set rewards opening with a genuinely high IR rate and reliable Ace Spec frequency. Booster boxes give the best packs-per-dollar. ETBs add the promo card and accessories if that experience matters to you.
If you are buying sealed for investment
Surging Sparks has been described as one of the most popular English sets in years — comparable in collector sentiment to 151. Sets with strong Pikachu pulls and iconic chase cards historically hold sealed value well over multi-year horizons. Buy at or near retail, store sealed, and think in 3–5 year windows rather than months.
On Ace Specs specifically
The approximately 1-per-box Ace Spec rate makes Surging Sparks unusually generous for competitive players. There are 8 different Ace Specs in the set — opening a few boxes gives a reasonable chance of acquiring playsets of the less sought-after Ace Specs while filling gaps through singles for the higher-demand ones.
Frequently Asked Questions
What are the Surging Sparks SIR pull rates?
Based on a documented 500-pack opening, approximately 1 SIR per 71 packs on average — 7 SIRs from 500 packs. This is more favourable than some other Scarlet & Violet sets. At this rate, a booster box (36 packs) has roughly a 40% chance of containing one SIR. The Pokemon Company does not publish official pull rates.
Is the Pikachu SIR worth chasing by opening packs?
No — if chasing a specific card is the goal, buying the single is far cheaper. With ~1 SIR per 71 packs and 11 SIRs in the set, the average expected packs to pull the specific Pikachu EX SIR is roughly 780 packs. Open packs for the experience and the full spread of hits — buy the Pikachu SIR directly if that card is your target.
How many Ace Specs can I expect from one booster box?
Approximately 1–2 Ace Specs per booster box (36 packs). The 500-pack opening produced 25 Ace Specs at roughly 1 per 20 packs — working out to about 1.8 per booster box on average. There are 8 different Ace Specs in Surging Sparks, so multiple box openings will typically yield variety across the pool.
What are the biggest illustration rares in Surging Sparks?
Surging Sparks has 23 total Illustration Rares — one of the larger IR pools in any SV set. Among the most notable: Latios EX IR (surprisingly valuable), Hydreigon EX IR (strong art, fits the dragon theme), and the full spread of Pikachu-themed IRs. The 500-pack opening pulled 39 IRs, averaging roughly 1 in 13 packs.
Does Surging Sparks have a god pack?
No confirmed god pack mechanic has been documented for Surging Sparks. Unlike Prismatic Evolutions or Ascended Heroes where god pack pulls have been filmed and reported, Surging Sparks has not produced reliable community evidence of a god pack. Do not factor a god pack into your opening expectations for this set.
Looking for specific Surging Sparks SIRs or IRs from Singapore sellers? Browse current listings at tcgTalk Price Comparison.
Disclaimer: Pull rates are community estimates derived from aggregate opening data, including a documented 500-pack opening. The Pokemon Company does not publish official pull rates for Surging Sparks or any other set. All rate estimates carry uncertainty — actual results will vary significantly across individual opening sessions. This is not financial advice.