2025 Bowman Draft Baseball Pack Odds Calculator
Set how many packs you’re opening, choose your product configuration, then pick the card you’re chasing from the dropdown. The big figure is your chance of pulling at least one of that parallel, autograph or insert across your packs; the table below prices every parallel at once. All rates are Topps’ official published odds.
| Parallel | Per pack | ≥1 in 24 | Expected |
|---|---|---|---|
| Chrome Prospect Autograph Variation | 1:8 | 96% | 3 |
| Chrome Prospect Autograph Variation Refractor Parallel | 1:34 | 51% | 0.71 |
| Chrome Prospect Autograph Variation Purple Refractor Parallel | 1:68 | 30% | 0.35 |
| Chrome Prospect Autograph Variation Aqua Lava Refractor Parallel | 1:84 | 25% | 0.29 |
| Chrome Prospect Autograph Variation Blue Wave Refractor Parallel | 1:110 | 20% | 0.22 |
| Chrome Prospect Autograph Variation Blue Refractor Parallel | 1:111 | 20% | 0.22 |
| Chrome Prospect Autograph Variation Yellow Refractor Parallel | 1:135 | 16% | 0.18 |
| Chrome Prospect Autograph Variation Green Refractor Parallel | 1:168 | 13% | 0.14 |
| Chrome Prospect Autograph Variation Sparkles Refractor Parallel | 1:231 | 9.9% | 0.10 |
| Achromatic Autographs Refractor Parallel | 1:245 | 9.3% | 0.10 |
| Chrome Prospect Autograph Variation Gold Wave Refractor Parallel | 1:329 | 7.0% | 0.07 |
| Chrome Prospect Autograph Variation Gold Refractor Parallel | 1:330 | 7.0% | 0.07 |
| Chrome Prospect Autograph Variation Orange Refractor Parallel | 1:397 | 5.9% | 0.06 |
| Achromatic Autographs Green Refractor | 1:619 | 3.8% | 0.04 |
| Bowman In Action Autographs Refractor Parallel | 1:1,193 | 2.0% | 0.02 |
| Achromatic Autographs Gold Refractor | 1:1,225 | 1.9% | 0.02 |
| Prospect Dual Autographs | 1:1,391 | 1.7% | 0.02 |
| Bowman In Action Autographs Wave Refractor | 1:1,577 | 1.5% | 0.02 |
| Chrome Prospect Autograph Variation Black Refractor Parallel | 1:1,626 | 1.5% | 0.01 |
| Chrome Prospect Autograph Variation Black X-fractor Refractor Parallel | 1:1,642 | 1.5% | 0.01 |
| Chrome Prospect Autographs Gold Ink Variation | 1:1,707 | 1.4% | 0.01 |
| Prized Prospects Autographs Refractor Parallel | 1:1,853 | 1.3% | 0.01 |
| Bowman In Action Autographs Gold Mini-diamond Refractor | 1:2,365 | 1.0% | 0.01 |
| Prospect Dual Autographs Gold Refractor | 1:2,547 | 0.9% | 0.01 |
| Bowman In Action Autographs Orange Refractor | 1:2,887 | 0.8% | 0.01 |
| Prospect Dual Autographs Orange Refractor | 1:3,104 | 0.8% | 0.01 |
| Chrome Prospect Autograph Variation Red Lava Refractor Parallel | 1:3,235 | 0.7% | 0.01 |
| Chrome Prospect Autograph Variation Red Refractor Parallel | 1:3,235 | 0.7% | 0.01 |
| Bowman Draft Night Autographs Refractor Parallel | 1:3,333 | 0.7% | 0.01 |
| Image Variations Autographs Refractor Parallel | 1:3,333 | 0.7% | 0.01 |
| Draft Prospect Portrait Autographs | 1:4,038 | 0.6% | 0.01 |
| Chrome Prospect Autograph Variation Printing Plates | 1:4,104 | 0.6% | 0.01 |
| Bowman Draft Night Autographs Gold Mini-diamond Refractor | 1:6,666 | 0.4% | 0 |
| Bowman Draft Night Autographs Orange Refractor | 1:8,010 | 0.3% | 0 |
| Achromatic Autographs Red Refractor | 1:11,684 | 0.2% | 0 |
| Prospect Dual Autographs Black Refractor | 1:11,823 | 0.2% | 0 |
| Chrome Prospect Autograph Variation Superfractor | 1:16,019 | 0.1% | 0 |
| Bowman In Action Autographs Red Refractor | 1:22,070 | 0.1% | 0 |
| Prospect Dual Autographs Red Refractor | 1:23,646 | 0.1% | 0 |
| Dream Draft Picks Autograph Variation Gold Refractor | 1:32,037 | 0.1% | 0 |
| Retrofractor Autograph Variation Gold Refractor | 1:32,037 | 0.1% | 0 |
| Prized Prospects Autographs Red Refractor | 1:36,783 | 0.1% | 0 |
| Dream Draft Picks Autograph Variation Orange Refractor | 1:39,725 | 0.1% | 0 |
| Retrofractor Autograph Variation Orange Refractor | 1:39,725 | 0.1% | 0 |
| Achromatic Autographs Superfractor | 1:58,419 | 0.0% | 0 |
| Bowman Draft Night Autographs Red Refractor | 1:66,208 | 0.0% | 0 |
| Bowman In Action Autographs Superfractor | 1:110,347 | 0.0% | 0 |
| Prospect Dual Autographs Superfractor | 1:110,347 | 0.0% | 0 |
| Prized Prospects Autographs Superfractor | 1:198,624 | 0.0% | 0 |
| 2025 Draft Lottery Ping Pong Ball Autographs | 1:248,281 | 0.0% | 0 |
| Dream Draft Picks Autograph Variation Red Refractor | 1:331,040 | 0.0% | 0 |
| Retrofractor Autograph Variation Red Refractor | 1:331,040 | 0.0% | 0 |
| Bowman Draft Night Autographs Superfractor | 1:331,040 | 0.0% | 0 |
| Dream Draft Picks Autograph Variation Superfractor | 1:993,121 | 0.0% | 0 |
| Retrofractor Autograph Variation Superfractor | 1:993,121 | 0.0% | 0 |
These are Topps’ official published odds for 2025 Bowman Draft Baseball (Hobby). A parallel’s rate is for any card in that parallel — a specific player is far rarer. The model treats each pack as an independent draw at the stated rate; real collation clusters hits.
How the Odds Are Calculated
Topps prints the pull rate of every parallel as “1 in N packs.” The calculator turns that into the numbers people actually ask for:
- Chance of ≥1 — the probability at least one of your packs has that card,
1 − (1 − 1/N)^packs. - Expected — the average number across your packs,
packs / N. - Packs to a 50 / 90 / 95% shot — solving the same formula backwards,
ln(1 − t) / ln(1 − 1/N).
Two honest caveats. A parallel’s odds are for any card in that parallel — a specific player is much rarer. And the model assumes each pack is an independent draw at the stated rate; real Topps collation can cluster or space out hits, so a live box can over- or under-shoot.
Disclaimer: Odds are Topps’ official published figures for 2025 Bowman Draft Baseball. The calculator models each pack as an independent draw at the stated per-pack rate; real openings vary. Not financial advice.