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Configurations
5
Odds Rows
487
Autographs
55
Base Parallels
76
2025 Bowman Draft Baseball Pack Odds Calculator
Set how many packs you’re opening, choose your product configuration, then pick the card you’re chasing from the dropdown. The big figure is your chance of pulling at least one of that parallel, autograph or insert across your packs; the table below prices every parallel at once. All rates are Topps’ official published odds.
Product configuration
How many packs are you opening?
packs
What are you chasing?
24 packs · Hobby · Chrome Prospect Autograph Variation
96%
chance of at least one Chrome Prospect Autograph Variation across 24 packs
≈ 3 expectedbase 1 in 8≈ 6 packs for 50%
Packs to hit
Every parallel in Hobby
| Parallel | Per pack | ≥1 in 24 | Expected |
|---|---|---|---|
| Base Parallels | |||
| Base Cards | 1:1 | 100% | — |
| Chrome Base Cards Refractor Parallel | 1:1 | 100% | — |
| Chrome Base Cards Sky Blue Refractor Parallel | 1:12 | 88% | 2 |
| Chrome Base Cards X-fractor Parallel | 1:12 | 88% | 2 |
| Base Cards Sky Blue Parallel | 1:15 | 81% | 1.60 |
| Chrome Base Cards Purple Refractor Parallel | 1:30 | 56% | 0.80 |
| Chrome Base Cards Sparkles Refractor Parallel | 1:38 | 47% | 0.63 |
| Chrome Base Cards Fuchsia Reptilian Refractor Parallel | 1:38 | 47% | 0.63 |
| Base Cards Blue Border Parallel | 1:50 | 38% | 0.48 |
| Chrome Base Cards Blue Refractor Parallel | 1:50 | 38% | 0.48 |
| Chrome Base Cards Aqua Wave Refractor Parallel | 1:60 | 33% | 0.40 |
| Chrome Base Cards Aqua Reptilian Parallel | 1:60 | 33% | 0.40 |
| Base Cards Green Parallel | 1:75 | 28% | 0.32 |
| Chrome Base Cards Steel Metal Refractor Parallel | 1:75 | 28% | 0.32 |
| Chrome Base Cards Green Refractor Parallel | 1:76 | 27% | 0.32 |
| Chrome Base Cards Green Grass Refractor Parallel | 1:76 | 27% | 0.32 |
| Chrome Base Cards Green Reptilian Refractor Parallel | 1:76 | 27% | 0.32 |
| Chrome Base Cards Yellow Reptilian Refractor Parallel | 1:100 | 21% | 0.24 |
| Chrome Base Cards Yellow Refractor Parallel | 1:100 | 21% | 0.24 |
| Base Cards Gold Parallel | 1:148 | 15% | 0.16 |
| Chrome Base Cards Gold Refractor Parallel | 1:149 | 15% | 0.16 |
| Base Cards Orange Parallel | 1:208 | 11% | 0.12 |
| Chrome Base Cards Orange Refractor Parallel | 1:208 | 11% | 0.12 |
| Chrome Base Cards Bowmanfractor Parallel | 1:213 | 11% | 0.11 |
| Axis Refractor | 1:298 | 7.8% | 0.08 |
| Prized Prospects Refractor | 1:298 | 7.8% | 0.08 |
| Bowman In Action Green Refractor Parallel | 1:501 | 4.7% | 0.05 |
| Bowman Draft Night Refractor | 1:596 | 4.0% | 0.04 |
| Chrome Base Cards Black Refractor Parallel | 1:744 | 3.2% | 0.03 |
| Chrome Base Cards Black X-fractor Parallel | 1:744 | 3.2% | 0.03 |
| Axis Green Refractor Parallel | 1:752 | 3.1% | 0.03 |
| Prized Prospects Green Refractor Parallel | 1:752 | 3.1% | 0.03 |
| Bowman In Action Gold Refractor | 1:993 | 2.4% | 0.02 |
| Bowman In Action Orange Refractor | 1:1,389 | 1.7% | 0.02 |
| Base Cards Red Parallel | 1:1,476 | 1.6% | 0.02 |
| Chrome Base Cards Red Lava Refractor Parallel | 1:1,487 | 1.6% | 0.02 |
| Chrome Base Cards Red Refractor Parallel | 1:1,487 | 1.6% | 0.02 |
| Axis Gold Refractor | 1:1,487 | 1.6% | 0.02 |
| Prized Prospects Gold Refractor | 1:1,487 | 1.6% | 0.02 |
| Bowman Draft Night Green Refractor Parallel | 1:1,503 | 1.6% | 0.02 |
| Base Cards Printing Plates | 1:1,843 | 1.3% | 0.01 |
| Crystalized Gold Refractor | 1:1,987 | 1.2% | 0.01 |
| Axis Orange Refractor | 1:2,083 | 1.1% | 0.01 |
| Prized Prospects Orange Refractor | 1:2,083 | 1.1% | 0.01 |
| Crystalized Orange Refractor | 1:2,775 | 0.9% | 0.01 |
| Bowman Draft Night Gold Refractor | 1:2,974 | 0.8% | 0.01 |
| Chrome Prospect College Variations Gold Refractor | 1:2,974 | 0.8% | 0.01 |
| Bowman Draft Night Orange Refractor | 1:4,173 | 0.6% | 0.01 |
| Chrome Prospect College Variations Orange Refractor | 1:4,173 | 0.6% | 0.01 |
| Bowman In Action Black Refractor | 1:4,966 | 0.5% | 0 |
| Dream Draft Picks Refractor | 1:4,966 | 0.5% | 0 |
| Base Cards Black Parallel | 1:7,357 | 0.3% | 0 |
| Axis Black Refractor | 1:7,412 | 0.3% | 0 |
| Prized Prospects Black Refractor | 1:7,412 | 0.3% | 0 |
| Chrome Prospect College Variations Black Refractor | 1:7,412 | 0.3% | 0 |
| Dream Draft Picks Aqua Lava Refractor | 1:7,468 | 0.3% | 0 |
| Bowman In Action Red Refractor | 1:10,032 | 0.2% | 0 |
| Crystalized Black Refractor | 1:10,032 | 0.2% | 0 |
| Dream Draft Picks Blue Refractor | 1:10,032 | 0.2% | 0 |
| Axis Red Refractor | 1:15,048 | 0.2% | 0 |
| Bowman Draft Night Black Refractor | 1:15,048 | 0.2% | 0 |
| Prized Prospects Red Refractor | 1:15,048 | 0.2% | 0 |
| Dream Draft Picks Green Refractor | 1:15,048 | 0.2% | 0 |
| Final Draft Red Refractor | 1:15,048 | 0.2% | 0 |
| Retrofractor Variations Gold Refractor | 1:15,048 | 0.2% | 0 |
| Bowman Spotlights Red Refractor | 1:19,863 | 0.1% | 0 |
| Crystalized Red Refractor | 1:19,863 | 0.1% | 0 |
| Dream Draft Picks Yellow Refractor | 1:19,863 | 0.1% | 0 |
| Retrofractor Variations Orange Refractor | 1:21,131 | 0.1% | 0 |
| Bowman Draft Night Red Refractor | 1:30,095 | 0.1% | 0 |
| Chrome Prospect College Variations Red Refractor | 1:30,095 | 0.1% | 0 |
| Dream Draft Picks Gold Refractor | 1:30,095 | 0.1% | 0 |
| Dream Draft Picks Orange Refractor | 1:41,380 | 0.1% | 0 |
| Retrofractor Variations Black Refractor | 1:76,394 | 0.0% | 0 |
| Retrofractor Variations Red Refractor | 1:141,875 | 0.0% | 0 |
| Dream Draft Picks Red Refractor | 1:331,040 | 0.0% | 0 |
| Inserts | |||
| Chrome Base Cards | 1:1 | 100% | — |
| Axis | 1:3 | 100% | 8 |
| Prized Prospects | 1:3 | 100% | 8 |
| Bowman Draft Night | 1:6 | 99% | 4 |
| Bowman In Action Base | 1:12 | 88% | 2 |
| Bowman In Action Mini-diamond | 1:331 | 7.0% | 0.07 |
| Etched-in Glass Variation | 1:372 | 6.3% | 0.06 |
| Final Draft | 1:372 | 6.3% | 0.06 |
| Image Variations | 1:425 | 5.5% | 0.06 |
| Axis Mini-diamond | 1:496 | 4.7% | 0.05 |
| Prized Prospects Mini-diamond | 1:496 | 4.7% | 0.05 |
| Bowman Spotlights | 1:662 | 3.6% | 0.04 |
| Chrome Prospect College Variations | 1:744 | 3.2% | 0.03 |
| Bowman Draft Night Mini-diamond | 1:993 | 2.4% | 0.02 |
| Crystalized Base | 1:993 | 2.4% | 0.02 |
| Chrome Base Cards Printing Plates | 1:1,860 | 1.3% | 0.01 |
| Dream Draft Picks Base | 1:2,974 | 0.8% | 0.01 |
| Retrofractor Variations | 1:2,974 | 0.8% | 0.01 |
| Chrome Base Cards Superfractor | 1:7,412 | 0.3% | 0 |
| Bowman In Action Superfractor | 1:49,656 | 0.0% | 0 |
| Axis Superfractor | 1:76,394 | 0.0% | 0 |
| Prized Prospects Superfractor | 1:76,394 | 0.0% | 0 |
| Final Draft Superfractor | 1:76,394 | 0.0% | 0 |
| Bowman Spotlights Superfractor | 1:99,312 | 0.0% | 0 |
| Crystalized Superfractor | 1:99,312 | 0.0% | 0 |
| Bowman Draft Night Superfractor | 1:141,875 | 0.0% | 0 |
| Chrome Prospect College Variations Superfractor | 1:141,875 | 0.0% | 0 |
| Dream Draft Picks Superfractor | 1:993,121 | 0.0% | 0 |
| Retrofractor Variations Superfractor | 1:993,121 | 0.0% | 0 |
| Autographs | |||
| Chrome Prospect Autograph Variation | 1:8 | 96% | 3 |
| Chrome Prospect Autograph Variation Refractor Parallel | 1:34 | 51% | 0.71 |
| Chrome Prospect Autograph Variation Purple Refractor Parallel | 1:68 | 30% | 0.35 |
| Chrome Prospect Autograph Variation Aqua Lava Refractor Parallel | 1:84 | 25% | 0.29 |
| Chrome Prospect Autograph Variation Blue Wave Refractor Parallel | 1:110 | 20% | 0.22 |
| Chrome Prospect Autograph Variation Blue Refractor Parallel | 1:111 | 20% | 0.22 |
| Chrome Prospect Autograph Variation Yellow Refractor Parallel | 1:135 | 16% | 0.18 |
| Chrome Prospect Autograph Variation Green Refractor Parallel | 1:168 | 13% | 0.14 |
| Chrome Prospect Autograph Variation Sparkles Refractor Parallel | 1:231 | 9.9% | 0.10 |
| Achromatic Autographs Refractor Parallel | 1:245 | 9.3% | 0.10 |
| Chrome Prospect Autograph Variation Gold Wave Refractor Parallel | 1:329 | 7.0% | 0.07 |
| Chrome Prospect Autograph Variation Gold Refractor Parallel | 1:330 | 7.0% | 0.07 |
| Chrome Prospect Autograph Variation Orange Refractor Parallel | 1:397 | 5.9% | 0.06 |
| Achromatic Autographs Green Refractor | 1:619 | 3.8% | 0.04 |
| Bowman In Action Autographs Refractor Parallel | 1:1,193 | 2.0% | 0.02 |
| Achromatic Autographs Gold Refractor | 1:1,225 | 1.9% | 0.02 |
| Prospect Dual Autographs | 1:1,391 | 1.7% | 0.02 |
| Bowman In Action Autographs Wave Refractor | 1:1,577 | 1.5% | 0.02 |
| Chrome Prospect Autograph Variation Black Refractor Parallel | 1:1,626 | 1.5% | 0.01 |
| Chrome Prospect Autograph Variation Black X-fractor Refractor Parallel | 1:1,642 | 1.5% | 0.01 |
| Chrome Prospect Autographs Gold Ink Variation | 1:1,707 | 1.4% | 0.01 |
| Prized Prospects Autographs Refractor Parallel | 1:1,853 | 1.3% | 0.01 |
| Bowman In Action Autographs Gold Mini-diamond Refractor | 1:2,365 | 1.0% | 0.01 |
| Prospect Dual Autographs Gold Refractor | 1:2,547 | 0.9% | 0.01 |
| Bowman In Action Autographs Orange Refractor | 1:2,887 | 0.8% | 0.01 |
| Prospect Dual Autographs Orange Refractor | 1:3,104 | 0.8% | 0.01 |
| Chrome Prospect Autograph Variation Red Lava Refractor Parallel | 1:3,235 | 0.7% | 0.01 |
| Chrome Prospect Autograph Variation Red Refractor Parallel | 1:3,235 | 0.7% | 0.01 |
| Bowman Draft Night Autographs Refractor Parallel | 1:3,333 | 0.7% | 0.01 |
| Image Variations Autographs Refractor Parallel | 1:3,333 | 0.7% | 0.01 |
| Draft Prospect Portrait Autographs | 1:4,038 | 0.6% | 0.01 |
| Chrome Prospect Autograph Variation Printing Plates | 1:4,104 | 0.6% | 0.01 |
| Bowman Draft Night Autographs Gold Mini-diamond Refractor | 1:6,666 | 0.4% | 0 |
| Bowman Draft Night Autographs Orange Refractor | 1:8,010 | 0.3% | 0 |
| Achromatic Autographs Red Refractor | 1:11,684 | 0.2% | 0 |
| Prospect Dual Autographs Black Refractor | 1:11,823 | 0.2% | 0 |
| Chrome Prospect Autograph Variation Superfractor | 1:16,019 | 0.1% | 0 |
| Bowman In Action Autographs Red Refractor | 1:22,070 | 0.1% | 0 |
| Prospect Dual Autographs Red Refractor | 1:23,646 | 0.1% | 0 |
| Dream Draft Picks Autograph Variation Gold Refractor | 1:32,037 | 0.1% | 0 |
| Retrofractor Autograph Variation Gold Refractor | 1:32,037 | 0.1% | 0 |
| Prized Prospects Autographs Red Refractor | 1:36,783 | 0.1% | 0 |
| Dream Draft Picks Autograph Variation Orange Refractor | 1:39,725 | 0.1% | 0 |
| Retrofractor Autograph Variation Orange Refractor | 1:39,725 | 0.1% | 0 |
| Achromatic Autographs Superfractor | 1:58,419 | 0.0% | 0 |
| Bowman Draft Night Autographs Red Refractor | 1:66,208 | 0.0% | 0 |
| Bowman In Action Autographs Superfractor | 1:110,347 | 0.0% | 0 |
| Prospect Dual Autographs Superfractor | 1:110,347 | 0.0% | 0 |
| Prized Prospects Autographs Superfractor | 1:198,624 | 0.0% | 0 |
| 2025 Draft Lottery Ping Pong Ball Autographs | 1:248,281 | 0.0% | 0 |
| Dream Draft Picks Autograph Variation Red Refractor | 1:331,040 | 0.0% | 0 |
| Retrofractor Autograph Variation Red Refractor | 1:331,040 | 0.0% | 0 |
| Bowman Draft Night Autographs Superfractor | 1:331,040 | 0.0% | 0 |
| Dream Draft Picks Autograph Variation Superfractor | 1:993,121 | 0.0% | 0 |
| Retrofractor Autograph Variation Superfractor | 1:993,121 | 0.0% | 0 |
These are Topps’ official published odds for 2025 Bowman Draft Baseball (Hobby). A parallel’s rate is for any card in that parallel — a specific player is far rarer. The model treats each pack as an independent draw at the stated rate; real collation clusters hits.
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Browse every Topps odds calculator
Compare pull rates across Chrome, Bowman, Finest, UFC, F1 and more — every set's official odds in one place.
How the Odds Are Calculated
Topps prints the pull rate of every parallel as “1 in N packs.” The calculator turns that into the numbers people actually ask for:
- Chance of ≥1 — the probability at least one of your packs has that card,
1 − (1 − 1/N)^packs. - Expected — the average number across your packs,
packs / N. - Packs to a 50 / 90 / 95% shot — solving the same formula backwards,
ln(1 − t) / ln(1 − 1/N).
Two honest caveats. A parallel’s odds are for any card in that parallel — a specific player is much rarer. And the model assumes each pack is an independent draw at the stated rate; real Topps collation can cluster or space out hits, so a live box can over- or under-shoot.
Disclaimer: Odds are Topps’ official published figures for 2025 Bowman Draft Baseball. The calculator models each pack as an independent draw at the stated per-pack rate; real openings vary. Not financial advice.
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