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Configurations
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Odds Rows
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Autographs
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Base Parallels
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2025 Topps Inception Baseball Pack Odds Calculator
Set how many packs you’re opening then pick the card you’re chasing from the dropdown. The big figure is your chance of pulling at least one of that parallel, autograph or insert across your packs; the table below prices every parallel at once. All rates are Topps’ official published odds.
How many packs are you opening?
packs
What are you chasing?
24 packs · Standard · Rookie and Emerging Stars Autographs
99%
chance of at least one Rookie and Emerging Stars Autographs across 24 packs
≈ 4 expectedbase 1 in 6≈ 4 packs for 50%
Packs to hit
Every parallel in Standard
| Parallel | Per pack | ≥1 in 24 | Expected |
|---|---|---|---|
| Inserts | |||
| Base | 1:1 | 100% | — |
| Base Green | 1:1 | 100% | — |
| Base Short Prints | 1:2 | 100% | 12 |
| Base Yellow | 1:6 | 99% | 4 |
| Base Purple | 1:8 | 96% | 3 |
| Base Red | 1:11 | 90% | 2.18 |
| Base Aqua | 1:15 | 81% | 1.60 |
| Base Gold Electricity | 1:22 | 67% | 1.09 |
| Base Hot Pink | 1:31 | 54% | 0.77 |
| Inception Signings Silver | 1:33 | 52% | 0.73 |
| Base Blue 01:44:00 Base Orange | 1:108 | 20% | 0.22 |
| Inception Signings Gold | 1:119 | 18% | 0.20 |
| Base Sky | 1:216 | 11% | 0.11 |
| Base Printing Plate Cyan | 1:270 | 8.5% | 0.09 |
| Base Printing Plate Magenta | 1:270 | 8.5% | 0.09 |
| Base Printing Plate Yellow | 1:270 | 8.5% | 0.09 |
| Base Printing Plate Black | 1:270 | 8.5% | 0.09 |
| Base Inception | 1:1083 | 2.2% | 0.02 |
| Inception Signings Gold Inscriptions | 1:2,886 | 0.8% | 0.01 |
| Autographs | |||
| Rookie and Emerging Stars Autographs | 1:6 | 99% | 4 |
| Rookie and Emerging Stars Autographs Purple | 1:8 | 96% | 3 |
| Rookie and Emerging Stars Autographs Green | 1:12 | 88% | 2 |
| Rookie and Emerging Stars Autographs Red | 1:15 | 81% | 1.60 |
| MLB First Milestone Autograph Relics | 1:20 | 71% | 1.20 |
| Rookie and Emerging Stars Autographs Aqua | 1:21 | 69% | 1.14 |
| Rookie and Emerging Stars Autographs Gold | 1:33 | 52% | 0.73 |
| Inception Molecular Autographs | 1:46 | 41% | 0.52 |
| Inception Autograph Jumbo Patch Cards Gold | 1:63 | 32% | 0.38 |
| Rookie and Emerging Stars Autographs Blue | 1:65 | 31% | 0.37 |
| MLB First Milestone Autograph Relics Blue | 1:71 | 29% | 0.34 |
| Dawn of Greatness Autographs | 1:74 | 28% | 0.32 |
| Base Short Prints Alpha Inception Autograph Patch 01:15:00 | 1:80 | 26% | 0.30 |
| Inception Autograph Patch Gold 01:42:00 Inception Autograph Patch Blue | 1:80 | 26% | 0.30 |
| Inception Immersion Autographs | 1:80 | 26% | 0.30 |
| Inception Autograph Game Relics Sock | 1:89 | 24% | 0.27 |
| Inception Transformation Autographs | 1:94 | 23% | 0.26 |
| Inception Autograph Game Relics Fielding Glove | 1:99 | 22% | 0.24 |
| Inception Autograph Relic Book | 1:102 | 21% | 0.24 |
| Inception Molecular Autographs Red | 1:103 | 21% | 0.23 |
| Inception Autograph Game Relics Batting Glove | 1:119 | 18% | 0.20 |
| Inception Autograph Jumbo Patch Cards Blue | 1:122 | 18% | 0.20 |
| Dawn of Greatness Autographs Red | 1:134 | 16% | 0.18 |
| Inception Transformation Autographs Red | 1:146 | 15% | 0.16 |
| Inception Immersion Autographs Red | 1:146 | 15% | 0.16 |
| Rookie and Emerging Stars Autographs Orange | 1:152 | 15% | 0.16 |
| Inception Molecular Autographs Gold | 1:163 | 14% | 0.15 |
| MLB First Milestone Autograph Relics Home Run | 1:175 | 13% | 0.14 |
| MLB First Milestone Autograph Relics Orange | 1:179 | 13% | 0.13 |
| Inception Autograph Patch Orange | 1:187 | 12% | 0.13 |
| Inception Transformation Autographs Gold | 1:187 | 12% | 0.13 |
| Inception Immersion Autographs Gold | 1:214 | 11% | 0.11 |
| Dawn of Greatness Autographs Gold | 1:222 | 10% | 0.11 |
| Inception Molecular Autographs Blue | 1:278 | 8.3% | 0.09 |
| Inception Autograph Jumbo Patch Cards Orange | 1:306 | 7.6% | 0.08 |
| Inception Transformation Autographs Blue | 1:353 | 6.6% | 0.07 |
| Inception Immersion Autographs Blue | 1:353 | 6.6% | 0.07 |
| MLB First Milestone Autograph Relics Sky | 1:359 | 6.5% | 0.07 |
| Inception Autograph Patch Sky | 1:372 | 6.3% | 0.06 |
| Dawn of Greatness Autographs Blue | 1:408 | 5.7% | 0.06 |
| Dual Autograph Relic Book | 1:452 | 5.2% | 0.05 |
| Inception Autograph Jumbo Relic Hat Team Logo | 1:473 | 5.0% | 0.05 |
| Inception Autograph Jumbo Relic Hat New Era Logo | 1:473 | 5.0% | 0.05 |
| Inception Autograph Jumbo Relic Hat MLB Silhouetted Batter | 1:473 | 5.0% | 0.05 |
| Inception Autograph Jumbo Relic Hat Button | 1:473 | 5.0% | 0.05 |
| Inception Autograph Jumbo Relic Hat Laundry Tag | 1:473 | 5.0% | 0.05 |
| Inception Autograph Jumbo Relic Hat 59Fifty | 1:473 | 5.0% | 0.05 |
| Inception Molecular Autographs Orange | 1:547 | 4.3% | 0.04 |
| Gameday Gear Autograph Relic Book | 1:594 | 4.0% | 0.04 |
| Inception Immersion Autographs Orange | 1:680 | 3.5% | 0.04 |
| Inception Dual Autographs | 1:693 | 3.4% | 0.03 |
| MLB First Milestone Autograph Relics Home Run Blue | 1:693 | 3.4% | 0.03 |
| Inception Transformation Autographs Orange | 1:852 | 2.8% | 0.03 |
| Dawn of Greatness Autographs Orange | 1:945 | 2.5% | 0.03 |
| Rookie and Emerging Stars Autographs Inception | 1:1,181 | 2.0% | 0.02 |
| Inception Autograph Relic Book Laundry Tag | 1:1,237 | 1.9% | 0.02 |
| Inception Autograph Relic Book Patch | 1:1,268 | 1.9% | 0.02 |
| Inception Autograph Relic Book Letters | 1:1,368 | 1.7% | 0.02 |
| MLB First Milestone Autograph Relics Inception | 1:1,676 | 1.4% | 0.01 |
| Inception Autograph Patch Inception | 1:1,856 | 1.3% | 0.01 |
| Inception Autograph Patch MLB Silhouetted Batter Inception Autograph Jumbo Patch Cards 01:33:00 | 1:1,856 | 1.3% | 0.01 |
| MLB First Milestone Autograph Relics Home Run Orange | 1:2,078 | 1.1% | 0.01 |
| Inception Autograph Game Relics Sock Logo | 1:2,211 | 1.1% | 0.01 |
| Inception Autograph Game Relics Fielding Glove Prime | 1:2,474 | 1.0% | 0.01 |
| Inception Autograph Relic Book MLB Silhouetted Batter | 1:2,474 | 1.0% | 0.01 |
| Inception Triple Autographs | 1:2,598 | 0.9% | 0.01 |
| Dual Autograph Relic Book Patch | 1:2,886 | 0.8% | 0.01 |
| Inception Autograph Game Relics Batting Glove Strap | 1:2,969 | 0.8% | 0.01 |
| Inception Autograph Game Relics Batting Glove Logo | 1:2,969 | 0.8% | 0.01 |
| Gameday Gear Autograph Relic Book Inception | 1:2,969 | 0.8% | 0.01 |
| Inception Autograph Jumbo Patch Cards Inception | 1:3,056 | 0.8% | 0.01 |
| Inception Dual Autographs Sky | 1:3,464 | 0.7% | 0.01 |
| MLB First Milestone Autograph Relics Home Run Sky | 1:4,156 | 0.6% | 0.01 |
| Inception Molecular Autographs Inception | 1:4,518 | 0.5% | 0.01 |
| Inception Triple Autographs Sky | 1:5,195 | 0.5% | 0 |
| Inception Immersion Autographs Inception | 1:5,469 | 0.4% | 0 |
| Dawn of Greatness Autographs Inception | 1:6,927 | 0.3% | 0 |
| Inception Transformation Autographs Inception | 1:6,927 | 0.3% | 0 |
| Dual Autograph Relic Book Inception | 1:8,658 | 0.3% | 0 |
| Inception Dual Autographs Inception | 1:17,316 | 0.1% | 0 |
| MLB Bat Knob Sticker Autograph Cards | 1:17,316 | 0.1% | 0 |
| MLB First Milestone Autograph Relics Home Run Inception | 1:20,780 | 0.1% | 0 |
| Inception Triple Autographs Inception | 1:25,974 | 0.1% | 0 |
These are Topps’ official published odds for 2025 Topps Inception Baseball (Standard). A parallel’s rate is for any card in that parallel — a specific player is far rarer. The model treats each pack as an independent draw at the stated rate; real collation clusters hits.
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Compare pull rates across Chrome, Bowman, Finest, UFC, F1 and more — every set's official odds in one place.
How the Odds Are Calculated
Topps prints the pull rate of every parallel as “1 in N packs.” The calculator turns that into the numbers people actually ask for:
- Chance of ≥1 — the probability at least one of your packs has that card,
1 − (1 − 1/N)^packs. - Expected — the average number across your packs,
packs / N. - Packs to a 50 / 90 / 95% shot — solving the same formula backwards,
ln(1 − t) / ln(1 − 1/N).
Two honest caveats. A parallel’s odds are for any card in that parallel — a specific player is much rarer. And the model assumes each pack is an independent draw at the stated rate; real Topps collation can cluster or space out hits, so a live box can over- or under-shoot.
Disclaimer: Odds are Topps’ official published figures for 2025 Topps Inception Baseball. The calculator models each pack as an independent draw at the stated per-pack rate; real openings vary. Not financial advice.
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