2026 Bowman Baseball Pack Odds Calculator
Set how many packs you’re opening, choose your product configuration, then pick the card you’re chasing from the dropdown. The big figure is your chance of pulling at least one of that parallel, autograph or insert across your packs; the table below prices every parallel at once. All rates are Topps’ official published odds.
| Parallel | Per pack | ≥1 in 24 | Expected |
|---|---|---|---|
| Chrome Prospect Autograph | 1:56 | 35% | 0.43 |
| Chrome Prospect Autograph Refractor | 1:200 | 11% | 0.12 |
| Chrome Prospect Autograph Speckle Refractor | 1:245 | 9.3% | 0.10 |
| Chrome Prospect Autograph Purple Refractor | 1:282 | 8.2% | 0.09 |
| Chrome Prospect Autograph Blue Refractor | 1:477 | 4.9% | 0.05 |
| Chrome Prospect Autograph Blue X- Fractor Refractor | 1:489 | 4.8% | 0.05 |
| Chrome Prospect Autograph Aqua Refractor | 1:577 | 4.1% | 0.04 |
| Chrome Prospect Autograph Mini- Diamond Refractor | 1:711 | 3.3% | 0.03 |
| Chrome Prospect Autograph Orange Refractor | 1:1,090 | 2.2% | 0.02 |
| Chrome Rookie Autograph Refractor | 1:1,090 | 2.2% | 0.02 |
| Chrome Prospect Autograph Orange Shimmer Refractor | 1:1,092 | 2.2% | 0.02 |
| Chrome Prospect Autograph Orange X- Fractor | 1:1,098 | 2.2% | 0.02 |
| Chrome Prospect Autograph Green Grass Refractor | 1:1,149 | 2.1% | 0.02 |
| Chrome Prospect Autograph Gold Shimmer Refractor | 1:1,410 | 1.7% | 0.02 |
| Chrome Rookie Autograph | 1:1,439 | 1.7% | 0.02 |
| Chrome Prospect Autograph Gold Refractor | 1:1,444 | 1.6% | 0.02 |
| Chrome Prospect Autograph Yellow X- Fractor | 1:1,519 | 1.6% | 0.02 |
| Chrome Prospect Autograph Yellow Refractor | 1:1,536 | 1.6% | 0.02 |
| Chrome Prospect Autograph Bowman Logofractor | 1:2,052 | 1.2% | 0.01 |
| Chrome Prospect Autograph Packfractor Variation | 1:2,948 | 0.8% | 0.01 |
| Chrome Rookie Autograph Blue Refractor | 1:3,207 | 0.7% | 0.01 |
| Chrome Rookie Autograph Mini-diamond Refractor | 1:4,791 | 0.5% | 0.01 |
| Under the Radar Autograph | 1:5,029 | 0.5% | 0 |
| Chrome Prospect Autograph Gum Ball Refractor | 1:5,453 | 0.4% | 0 |
| Chrome Prospect Autograph Sunflower Seeds Refractor | 1:5,454 | 0.4% | 0 |
| Chrome Prospect Autograph Peanuts Refractor | 1:5,466 | 0.4% | 0 |
| Chrome Prospect Autograph Pop Corn Refractor | 1:5,479 | 0.4% | 0 |
| Chrome Prospect Autograph Black & White Shimmer Refractor | 1:6,170 | 0.4% | 0 |
| Chrome Prospect Autograph Black & White Shimmer Refractor | 1:6,195 | 0.4% | 0 |
| Bowman Sterling Autograph | 1:6,634 | 0.4% | 0 |
| Power Chords Autograph Orange Refractor | 1:6,710 | 0.4% | 0 |
| Chrome Prospect Autograph Black Refractor | 1:6,875 | 0.3% | 0 |
| Chrome Prospect Autograph Black X- Fractor | 1:6,883 | 0.3% | 0 |
| Electric Sluggers Autograph Orange Refractor | 1:7,231 | 0.3% | 0 |
| Under the Radar Autograph Orange Refractor | 1:7,231 | 0.3% | 0 |
| Chrome Rookie Autograph Orange Refractor | 1:7,254 | 0.3% | 0 |
| Power Chords Autograph Gold Refractor | 1:8,529 | 0.3% | 0 |
| Electric Sluggers Autograph | 1:8,624 | 0.3% | 0 |
| Chrome Rookie Autograph Gold Refractor | 1:9,866 | 0.2% | 0 |
| Electric Sluggers Autograph Gold Refractor | 1:9,950 | 0.2% | 0 |
| Under the Radar Autograph Gold Refractor | 1:9,950 | 0.2% | 0 |
| Power Chords Autograph | 1:10,036 | 0.2% | 0 |
| Bowman Sterling Autograph Orange Refractor | 1:10,441 | 0.2% | 0 |
| Chrome Rookie Autograph Yellow Refractor | 1:10,488 | 0.2% | 0 |
| Bowman Sterling Autograph Gold Refractor | 1:13,229 | 0.2% | 0 |
| Draft Pick Pairings Autograph | 1:13,459 | 0.2% | 0 |
| Chrome Prospect Autograph Red Lava Refractor | 1:13,898 | 0.2% | 0 |
| Chrome Prospect Autograph Red Refractor | 1:13,903 | 0.2% | 0 |
| Chrome Prospect Autographs Gold Ink Variation | 1:14,197 | 0.2% | 0 |
| Chrome Prospect Autograph Printing Plates | 1:17,282 | 0.1% | 0 |
| All-america Game Autographs | 1:29,472 | 0.1% | 0 |
| Draft Pick Pairings Autograph Red Refractor | 1:59,699 | 0.0% | 0 |
| Chrome Prospect Autograph Superfractor | 1:65,916 | 0.0% | 0 |
| Power Chords Autograph Red Refractor | 1:77,608 | 0.0% | 0 |
| Electric Sluggers Autograph Red Refractor | 1:83,152 | 0.0% | 0 |
| Under the Radar Autograph Red Refractor | 1:89,548 | 0.0% | 0 |
| Chrome Rookie Autograph Red Refractor | 1:89,548 | 0.0% | 0 |
| Bowman Sterling Autograph Red Refractor | 1:116,412 | 0.0% | 0 |
| Chrome Rookie Autograph Printing Plates | 1:116,412 | 0.0% | 0 |
| Electric Sluggers Autograph Superfractor | 1:388,040 | 0.0% | 0 |
| Power Chords Autograph Superfractor | 1:388,040 | 0.0% | 0 |
| Under the Radar Autograph Superfractor | 1:465,648 | 0.0% | 0 |
| Chrome Rookie Autograph Superfractor | 1:465,648 | 0.0% | 0 |
| Draft Pick Pairings Autograph Superfractor | 1:465,648 | 0.0% | 0 |
| Bowman Sterling Autograph Superfractor | 1:582,060 | 0.0% | 0 |
| 2026 Bowman Ultimate Autograph Book Redemption Card | 1:582,060 | 0.0% | 0 |
| All-america Game Autographs Red Ink | 1:582,060 | 0.0% | 0 |
These are Topps’ official published odds for 2026 Bowman Baseball (Hobby). A parallel’s rate is for any card in that parallel — a specific player is far rarer. The model treats each pack as an independent draw at the stated rate; real collation clusters hits.
How the Odds Are Calculated
Topps prints the pull rate of every parallel as “1 in N packs.” The calculator turns that into the numbers people actually ask for:
- Chance of ≥1 — the probability at least one of your packs has that card,
1 − (1 − 1/N)^packs. - Expected — the average number across your packs,
packs / N. - Packs to a 50 / 90 / 95% shot — solving the same formula backwards,
ln(1 − t) / ln(1 − 1/N).
Two honest caveats. A parallel’s odds are for any card in that parallel — a specific player is much rarer. And the model assumes each pack is an independent draw at the stated rate; real Topps collation can cluster or space out hits, so a live box can over- or under-shoot.
Disclaimer: Odds are Topps’ official published figures for 2026 Bowman Baseball. The calculator models each pack as an independent draw at the stated per-pack rate; real openings vary. Not financial advice.