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Configurations
3
Odds Rows
1,218
Autographs
67
Base Parallels
82
2026 Bowman Baseball Pack Odds Calculator
Set how many packs you’re opening, choose your product configuration, then pick the card you’re chasing from the dropdown. The big figure is your chance of pulling at least one of that parallel, autograph or insert across your packs; the table below prices every parallel at once. All rates are Topps’ official published odds.
Product configuration
How many packs are you opening?
packs
What are you chasing?
24 packs · Hobby · Chrome Prospect Autograph
35%
chance of at least one Chrome Prospect Autograph across 24 packs
≈ 0.43 expectedbase 1 in 56≈ 39 packs for 50%
Packs to hit
Every parallel in Hobby
| Parallel | Per pack | ≥1 in 24 | Expected |
|---|---|---|---|
| Base Parallels | |||
| Chrome Prospects Reptilian Refractor | 1:10 | 92% | 2.40 |
| Base Card Rookie Red RC Variation | 1:14 | 83% | 1.71 |
| Chrome Prospects X-fractor | 1:20 | 71% | 1.20 |
| Chrome Prospects Wave | 1:46 | 41% | 0.52 |
| Chrome Prospects Blue Raywave | 1:108 | 20% | 0.22 |
| Chrome Prospects Fuschia Wave Refractor | 1:172 | 13% | 0.14 |
| Chrome Prospects Refractor | 1:178 | 13% | 0.13 |
| Base Cards Sky Blue | 1:268 | 8.6% | 0.09 |
| Chrome Prospects Aqua X-fractor | 1:273 | 8.4% | 0.09 |
| Chrome Prospects Yellow X-fractor | 1:277 | 8.3% | 0.09 |
| Base Cards Neon Green | 1:335 | 6.9% | 0.07 |
| Chrome Prospects Purple Refractor | 1:357 | 6.5% | 0.07 |
| Chrome Prospects Purple Raywave | 1:357 | 6.5% | 0.07 |
| Base Cards Fuchsia | 1:449 | 5.2% | 0.05 |
| Chrome Prospects Fuschia Refractor | 1:449 | 5.2% | 0.05 |
| Chrome Prospects Reptilian Fuschia Refractor | 1:449 | 5.2% | 0.05 |
| Chrome Prospects Yellow Wave | 1:455 | 5.1% | 0.05 |
| Base Cards Purple | 1:536 | 4.4% | 0.04 |
| Base Cards Purple Pattern | 1:536 | 4.4% | 0.04 |
| Chrome Prospects Blue Refractor | 1:596 | 4.0% | 0.04 |
| Chrome Prospects Reptilian Blue Refractor | 1:596 | 4.0% | 0.04 |
| Chrome Prospects Reptilian Orange Refractor | 1:643 | 3.7% | 0.04 |
| Base Cards Pink | 1:766 | 3.1% | 0.03 |
| Base Cards Blue | 1:894 | 2.7% | 0.03 |
| Base Cards Blue Pattern | 1:894 | 2.7% | 0.03 |
| Bowman Scouts' Top 100 Mini-diamond Refractor | 1:894 | 2.7% | 0.03 |
| Base Cards Orange | 1:965 | 2.5% | 0.02 |
| Bowman Scouts' Top 100 Orange Refractor | 1:965 | 2.5% | 0.02 |
| Base Cards Orange Pattern | 1:965 | 2.5% | 0.02 |
| Bowman Scouts' Top 100 Aqua Refractor | 1:1,072 | 2.2% | 0.02 |
| Base Cards Bowman Logo Pattern | 1:1,165 | 2.0% | 0.02 |
| Chrome Prospects Yellow Refractor | 1:1,192 | 2.0% | 0.02 |
| Chrome Prospects Sunflower Seeds Refractor | 1:1,454 | 1.6% | 0.02 |
| Chrome Prospects Gum Ball Refractor | 1:1,455 | 1.6% | 0.02 |
| Chrome Prospects Peanuts Refractor | 1:1,540 | 1.5% | 0.02 |
| Chrome Prospects Pop Corn Refractor | 1:1,540 | 1.5% | 0.02 |
| Base Cards Yellow | 1:1,787 | 1.3% | 0.01 |
| Base Cards Yellow Pattern | 1:1,787 | 1.3% | 0.01 |
| Chrome Prospects Gold Refractor | 1:1,789 | 1.3% | 0.01 |
| Chrome Prospects Reptilian Gold Refractor | 1:1,789 | 1.3% | 0.01 |
| Base Cards Black | 1:2,411 | 1.0% | 0.01 |
| Base Cards Black Pattern | 1:2,411 | 1.0% | 0.01 |
| Base Cards Gold | 1:2,680 | 0.9% | 0.01 |
| Bowman Scouts' Top 100 Gold Refractor | 1:2,680 | 0.9% | 0.01 |
| Base Cards Gold Pattern | 1:2,680 | 0.9% | 0.01 |
| Electric Sluggers Mini-diamond Refractor | 1:3,577 | 0.7% | 0.01 |
| Power Chords Mini-diamond Refractor | 1:3,577 | 0.7% | 0.01 |
| Electric Sluggers Orange Refractor | 1:3,855 | 0.6% | 0.01 |
| Power Chords Orange Refractor | 1:3,855 | 0.6% | 0.01 |
| Electric Sluggers Aqua Refractor | 1:4,288 | 0.6% | 0.01 |
| Power Chords Aqua Refractor | 1:4,288 | 0.6% | 0.01 |
| Under the Radar Mini-diamond Refractor | 1:4,469 | 0.5% | 0.01 |
| Under the Radar Orange Refractor | 1:4,811 | 0.5% | 0 |
| Crystallized Orange Refractor | 1:4,811 | 0.5% | 0 |
| Under the Radar Aqua Refractor | 1:5,365 | 0.4% | 0 |
| Bowman Sterling Mini-diamond Refractor | 1:5,955 | 0.4% | 0 |
| Chrome Prospects Rose Gold X-fractor | 1:5,970 | 0.4% | 0 |
| Bowman Sterling Orange Refractor | 1:6,397 | 0.4% | 0 |
| Bowman Sterling Aqua Refractor | 1:7,142 | 0.3% | 0 |
| Chrome Prospects Black Refractor | 1:8,973 | 0.3% | 0 |
| Chrome Prospects Black X-fractor Refractor | 1:8,973 | 0.3% | 0 |
| Electric Sluggers Gold Refractor | 1:10,730 | 0.2% | 0 |
| Power Chords Gold Refractor | 1:10,730 | 0.2% | 0 |
| Under the Radar Gold Refractor | 1:13,381 | 0.2% | 0 |
| Crystallized Gold Refractor | 1:13,381 | 0.2% | 0 |
| Bowman Sterling Gold Refractor | 1:17,910 | 0.1% | 0 |
| Chrome Prospects Red Refractor | 1:18,049 | 0.1% | 0 |
| Chrome Prospects Reptilian Red Refractor | 1:18,049 | 0.1% | 0 |
| Anime Black Refractor | 1:25,870 | 0.1% | 0 |
| Base Cards Red | 1:26,762 | 0.1% | 0 |
| Bowman Scouts' Top 100 Red Refractor | 1:26,762 | 0.1% | 0 |
| Base Cards Printing Plates | 1:33,743 | 0.1% | 0 |
| Final Draft Black Refractor | 1:42,332 | 0.1% | 0 |
| Anime Red Refractor | 1:46,565 | 0.1% | 0 |
| Final Draft Red Refractor | 1:77,608 | 0.0% | 0 |
| Electric Sluggers Red Refractor | 1:105,830 | 0.0% | 0 |
| Power Chords Red Refractor | 1:105,830 | 0.0% | 0 |
| Base Cards Platinum Border Rainbow Foil | 1:136,956 | 0.0% | 0 |
| Under the Radar Red Refractor | 1:136,956 | 0.0% | 0 |
| Crystallized Red Refractor | 1:136,956 | 0.0% | 0 |
| Bowman Sterling Red Refractor | 1:179,096 | 0.0% | 0 |
| Bowman Spotlights Red Refractor | 1:179,096 | 0.0% | 0 |
| Inserts | |||
| Paper Prospects | 1:1 | 100% | — |
| Chrome Prospects | 1:1 | 100% | — |
| Bowman Scouts' Top 100 | 1:3 | 100% | 8 |
| Electric Sluggers | 1:6 | 99% | 4 |
| Under the Radar | 1:6 | 99% | 4 |
| Bowman Sterling | 1:6 | 99% | 4 |
| Power Chords | 1:10 | 92% | 2.40 |
| Chrome Prospects Mini Diamond | 1:20 | 71% | 1.20 |
| Paper Prospects Sky Blue | 1:178 | 13% | 0.13 |
| Paper Prospects Neon Green | 1:223 | 10% | 0.11 |
| Chrome Prospects Lava | 1:223 | 10% | 0.11 |
| Chrome Prospects League Logofractor | 1:241 | 9.5% | 0.10 |
| Chrome Prospects Aqua Shimmer | 1:273 | 8.4% | 0.09 |
| Paper Prospects Fuchsia | 1:298 | 7.8% | 0.08 |
| Chrome Prospects Speckle | 1:298 | 7.8% | 0.08 |
| Paper Prospects Purple | 1:357 | 6.5% | 0.07 |
| Paper Prospects Purple Pattern | 1:360 | 6.5% | 0.07 |
| Paper Prospects Pink | 1:511 | 4.6% | 0.05 |
| Paper Prospects Blue | 1:596 | 4.0% | 0.04 |
| Paper Prospects Blue Pattern | 1:596 | 4.0% | 0.04 |
| Chrome Prospects Blue Shimmer | 1:596 | 4.0% | 0.04 |
| Paper Prospects Orange | 1:643 | 3.7% | 0.04 |
| Chrome Prospects Orange | 1:643 | 3.7% | 0.04 |
| Chrome Prospects Orange Shimmer | 1:643 | 3.7% | 0.04 |
| Paper Prospects Orange Pattern | 1:643 | 3.7% | 0.04 |
| Paper Prospects Bowman Logo Pattern | 1:699 | 3.4% | 0.03 |
| Chrome Prospects Steel Metal | 1:894 | 2.7% | 0.03 |
| Chrome Prospects Green Grass | 1:903 | 2.6% | 0.03 |
| Paper Prospects Yellow | 1:1,192 | 2.0% | 0.02 |
| Paper Prospects Yellow Pattern | 1:1,192 | 2.0% | 0.02 |
| Paper Prospects Black | 1:1,607 | 1.5% | 0.01 |
| Paper Prospects Black Pattern | 1:1,607 | 1.5% | 0.01 |
| Anime | 1:1,664 | 1.4% | 0.01 |
| Chrome Prospects Packfractor Variation | 1:1,711 | 1.4% | 0.01 |
| Paper Prospects Gold | 1:1,789 | 1.3% | 0.01 |
| Chrome Prospects Gold Shimmer | 1:1,789 | 1.3% | 0.01 |
| Paper Prospects Gold Pattern | 1:1,789 | 1.3% | 0.01 |
| Chrome Prospects Bowman Logofractor | 1:2,553 | 0.9% | 0.01 |
| Etched In Glass Variation | 1:2,914 | 0.8% | 0.01 |
| Final Draft | 1:3,350 | 0.7% | 0.01 |
| Bowman Spotlights | 1:5,955 | 0.4% | 0 |
| Chrome Prospects Rose Gold | 1:5,970 | 0.4% | 0 |
| Crystallized | 1:6,691 | 0.4% | 0 |
| Paper Prospects Red | 1:18,049 | 0.1% | 0 |
| Chrome Prospects Red Lava | 1:18,049 | 0.1% | 0 |
| Paper Prospects Printing Plates | 1:22,496 | 0.1% | 0 |
| Chrome Prospects Printing Plates | 1:22,496 | 0.1% | 0 |
| Chrome Prospects Superfractor | 1:33,743 | 0.1% | 0 |
| Paper Prospects Platinum Border Rainbow Foil | 1:91,304 | 0.0% | 0 |
| Bowman Scouts' Top 100 Superfractor | 1:136,956 | 0.0% | 0 |
| Anime Superfractor | 1:211,659 | 0.0% | 0 |
| Anime Kanji Variation | 1:232,824 | 0.0% | 0 |
| Final Draft Superfractor | 1:465,648 | 0.0% | 0 |
| Electric Sluggers Superfractor | 1:582,060 | 0.0% | 0 |
| Under the Radar Superfractor | 1:582,060 | 0.0% | 0 |
| Power Chords Superfractor | 1:582,060 | 0.0% | 0 |
| Crystallized Superfractor | 1:582,060 | 0.0% | 0 |
| Bowman Sterling Superfractor | 1:776,080 | 0.0% | 0 |
| Bowman Spotlights Superfractor | 1:776,080 | 0.0% | 0 |
| Autographs | |||
| Chrome Prospect Autograph | 1:56 | 35% | 0.43 |
| Chrome Prospect Autograph Refractor | 1:200 | 11% | 0.12 |
| Chrome Prospect Autograph Speckle Refractor | 1:245 | 9.3% | 0.10 |
| Chrome Prospect Autograph Purple Refractor | 1:282 | 8.2% | 0.09 |
| Chrome Prospect Autograph Blue Refractor | 1:477 | 4.9% | 0.05 |
| Chrome Prospect Autograph Blue X- Fractor Refractor | 1:489 | 4.8% | 0.05 |
| Chrome Prospect Autograph Aqua Refractor | 1:577 | 4.1% | 0.04 |
| Chrome Prospect Autograph Mini- Diamond Refractor | 1:711 | 3.3% | 0.03 |
| Chrome Prospect Autograph Orange Refractor | 1:1,090 | 2.2% | 0.02 |
| Chrome Rookie Autograph Refractor | 1:1,090 | 2.2% | 0.02 |
| Chrome Prospect Autograph Orange Shimmer Refractor | 1:1,092 | 2.2% | 0.02 |
| Chrome Prospect Autograph Orange X- Fractor | 1:1,098 | 2.2% | 0.02 |
| Chrome Prospect Autograph Green Grass Refractor | 1:1,149 | 2.1% | 0.02 |
| Chrome Prospect Autograph Gold Shimmer Refractor | 1:1,410 | 1.7% | 0.02 |
| Chrome Rookie Autograph | 1:1,439 | 1.7% | 0.02 |
| Chrome Prospect Autograph Gold Refractor | 1:1,444 | 1.6% | 0.02 |
| Chrome Prospect Autograph Yellow X- Fractor | 1:1,519 | 1.6% | 0.02 |
| Chrome Prospect Autograph Yellow Refractor | 1:1,536 | 1.6% | 0.02 |
| Chrome Prospect Autograph Bowman Logofractor | 1:2,052 | 1.2% | 0.01 |
| Chrome Prospect Autograph Packfractor Variation | 1:2,948 | 0.8% | 0.01 |
| Chrome Rookie Autograph Blue Refractor | 1:3,207 | 0.7% | 0.01 |
| Chrome Rookie Autograph Mini-diamond Refractor | 1:4,791 | 0.5% | 0.01 |
| Under the Radar Autograph | 1:5,029 | 0.5% | 0 |
| Chrome Prospect Autograph Gum Ball Refractor | 1:5,453 | 0.4% | 0 |
| Chrome Prospect Autograph Sunflower Seeds Refractor | 1:5,454 | 0.4% | 0 |
| Chrome Prospect Autograph Peanuts Refractor | 1:5,466 | 0.4% | 0 |
| Chrome Prospect Autograph Pop Corn Refractor | 1:5,479 | 0.4% | 0 |
| Chrome Prospect Autograph Black & White Shimmer Refractor | 1:6,170 | 0.4% | 0 |
| Chrome Prospect Autograph Black & White Shimmer Refractor | 1:6,195 | 0.4% | 0 |
| Bowman Sterling Autograph | 1:6,634 | 0.4% | 0 |
| Power Chords Autograph Orange Refractor | 1:6,710 | 0.4% | 0 |
| Chrome Prospect Autograph Black Refractor | 1:6,875 | 0.3% | 0 |
| Chrome Prospect Autograph Black X- Fractor | 1:6,883 | 0.3% | 0 |
| Electric Sluggers Autograph Orange Refractor | 1:7,231 | 0.3% | 0 |
| Under the Radar Autograph Orange Refractor | 1:7,231 | 0.3% | 0 |
| Chrome Rookie Autograph Orange Refractor | 1:7,254 | 0.3% | 0 |
| Power Chords Autograph Gold Refractor | 1:8,529 | 0.3% | 0 |
| Electric Sluggers Autograph | 1:8,624 | 0.3% | 0 |
| Chrome Rookie Autograph Gold Refractor | 1:9,866 | 0.2% | 0 |
| Electric Sluggers Autograph Gold Refractor | 1:9,950 | 0.2% | 0 |
| Under the Radar Autograph Gold Refractor | 1:9,950 | 0.2% | 0 |
| Power Chords Autograph | 1:10,036 | 0.2% | 0 |
| Bowman Sterling Autograph Orange Refractor | 1:10,441 | 0.2% | 0 |
| Chrome Rookie Autograph Yellow Refractor | 1:10,488 | 0.2% | 0 |
| Bowman Sterling Autograph Gold Refractor | 1:13,229 | 0.2% | 0 |
| Draft Pick Pairings Autograph | 1:13,459 | 0.2% | 0 |
| Chrome Prospect Autograph Red Lava Refractor | 1:13,898 | 0.2% | 0 |
| Chrome Prospect Autograph Red Refractor | 1:13,903 | 0.2% | 0 |
| Chrome Prospect Autographs Gold Ink Variation | 1:14,197 | 0.2% | 0 |
| Chrome Prospect Autograph Printing Plates | 1:17,282 | 0.1% | 0 |
| All-america Game Autographs | 1:29,472 | 0.1% | 0 |
| Draft Pick Pairings Autograph Red Refractor | 1:59,699 | 0.0% | 0 |
| Chrome Prospect Autograph Superfractor | 1:65,916 | 0.0% | 0 |
| Power Chords Autograph Red Refractor | 1:77,608 | 0.0% | 0 |
| Electric Sluggers Autograph Red Refractor | 1:83,152 | 0.0% | 0 |
| Under the Radar Autograph Red Refractor | 1:89,548 | 0.0% | 0 |
| Chrome Rookie Autograph Red Refractor | 1:89,548 | 0.0% | 0 |
| Bowman Sterling Autograph Red Refractor | 1:116,412 | 0.0% | 0 |
| Chrome Rookie Autograph Printing Plates | 1:116,412 | 0.0% | 0 |
| Electric Sluggers Autograph Superfractor | 1:388,040 | 0.0% | 0 |
| Power Chords Autograph Superfractor | 1:388,040 | 0.0% | 0 |
| Under the Radar Autograph Superfractor | 1:465,648 | 0.0% | 0 |
| Chrome Rookie Autograph Superfractor | 1:465,648 | 0.0% | 0 |
| Draft Pick Pairings Autograph Superfractor | 1:465,648 | 0.0% | 0 |
| Bowman Sterling Autograph Superfractor | 1:582,060 | 0.0% | 0 |
| 2026 Bowman Ultimate Autograph Book Redemption Card | 1:582,060 | 0.0% | 0 |
| All-america Game Autographs Red Ink | 1:582,060 | 0.0% | 0 |
| Relics & Memorabilia | |||
| Patchwork | 1:2,233 | 1.1% | 0.01 |
| Patchwork Red Refractor | 1:89,548 | 0.0% | 0 |
| Patchwork Superfractor | 1:465,648 | 0.0% | 0 |
These are Topps’ official published odds for 2026 Bowman Baseball (Hobby). A parallel’s rate is for any card in that parallel — a specific player is far rarer. The model treats each pack as an independent draw at the stated rate; real collation clusters hits.
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Browse every Topps odds calculator
Compare pull rates across Chrome, Bowman, Finest, UFC, F1 and more — every set's official odds in one place.
How the Odds Are Calculated
Topps prints the pull rate of every parallel as “1 in N packs.” The calculator turns that into the numbers people actually ask for:
- Chance of ≥1 — the probability at least one of your packs has that card,
1 − (1 − 1/N)^packs. - Expected — the average number across your packs,
packs / N. - Packs to a 50 / 90 / 95% shot — solving the same formula backwards,
ln(1 − t) / ln(1 − 1/N).
Two honest caveats. A parallel’s odds are for any card in that parallel — a specific player is much rarer. And the model assumes each pack is an independent draw at the stated rate; real Topps collation can cluster or space out hits, so a live box can over- or under-shoot.
Disclaimer: Odds are Topps’ official published figures for 2026 Bowman Baseball. The calculator models each pack as an independent draw at the stated per-pack rate; real openings vary. Not financial advice.
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