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Configurations
6
Odds Rows
1,183
Autographs
75
Base Parallels
37
2026 Topps Chrome Baseball Pack Odds Calculator
Set how many packs you’re opening, choose your product configuration, then pick the card you’re chasing from the dropdown. The big figure is your chance of pulling at least one of that parallel, autograph or insert across your packs; the table below prices every parallel at once. All rates are Topps’ official published odds.
Product configuration
How many packs are you opening?
packs
What are you chasing?
24 packs · Hobby · Topps Chrome Rookie Autographs
41%
chance of at least one Topps Chrome Rookie Autographs across 24 packs
≈ 0.52 expectedbase 1 in 46≈ 32 packs for 50%
Packs to hit
Every parallel in Hobby
| Parallel | Per pack | ≥1 in 24 | Expected |
|---|---|---|---|
| Base Parallels | |||
| Base Cards Refractor | 1:3 | 100% | 8 |
| Base Cards Prism Refractor | 1:5 | 100% | 4.80 |
| Base Cards Negative Refractor | 1:43 | 43% | 0.56 |
| Base Cards Pink Refractor | 1:69 | 30% | 0.35 |
| Base Cards Aqua Refractor | 1:86 | 24% | 0.28 |
| Base Cards Image Variations | 1:103 | 21% | 0.23 |
| Base Cards Blue Refractor | 1:114 | 19% | 0.21 |
| Base Cards Green Refractor | 1:173 | 13% | 0.14 |
| Base Cards Topps 75th Anniversary | 1:228 | 10% | 0.11 |
| Base Cards Purple Refractor | 1:228 | 10% | 0.11 |
| Base Cards Gold Refractor | 1:341 | 6.8% | 0.07 |
| Base Cards White Refractor | 1:569 | 4.1% | 0.04 |
| Base Cards Orange Refractor | 1:683 | 3.5% | 0.04 |
| Base Cards Image Variations Green Refractor | 1:1,034 | 2.3% | 0.02 |
| Base Cards Image Variations Purple Refractor | 1:1,364 | 1.7% | 0.02 |
| Diamond Moments Purple Refractor | 1:1,582 | 1.5% | 0.02 |
| Base Cards Black Refractor | 1:1,705 | 1.4% | 0.01 |
| Base Cards Image Variations Gold Refractor | 1:2,047 | 1.2% | 0.01 |
| Diamond Moments Gold Refractor | 1:2,374 | 1.0% | 0.01 |
| Base Cards Red Refractor | 1:3,416 | 0.7% | 0.01 |
| Base Cards Image Variations Orange Refractor | 1:4,094 | 0.6% | 0.01 |
| Base Cards Printing Plate | 1:4,259 | 0.6% | 0.01 |
| Diamond Moments Orange Refractor | 1:4,748 | 0.5% | 0.01 |
| Base Cards Image Variations Padpardascha Base Cards Super Short Prints | 1:5,115 | 0.5% | 0 |
| Base Cards Frozenfractor | 1:9,892 | 0.2% | 0 |
| Base Cards Image Variations Black Refractor | 1:10,248 | 0.2% | 0 |
| Class of 2025 Cooperstown Calls Green Refractor | 1:10,322 | 0.2% | 0 |
| Diamond Moments Black Refractor | 1:11,870 | 0.2% | 0 |
| Mvp Buybacks Refractor | 1:12,833 | 0.2% | 0 |
| Base Cards Superfractor | 1:16,958 | 0.1% | 0 |
| Mvp Buybacks Prism | 1:17,059 | 0.1% | 0 |
| Base Cards Image Variations Red Refractor | 1:20,495 | 0.1% | 0 |
| Diamond Moments Red Refractor | 1:23,740 | 0.1% | 0 |
| Mvp Buybacks X-fractor | 1:25,899 | 0.1% | 0 |
| Mvp Buybacks Negative Refractor | 1:50,872 | 0.0% | 0 |
| Base Cards Image Variations Superfractor Base Cards Image Variations Sapphire | 1:101,743 | 0.0% | 0 |
| Minions MLB Red Refractor | 1:284,880 | 0.0% | 0 |
| Inserts | |||
| 1991 Topps Baseball | 1:9 | 94% | 2.67 |
| Big Ticket Players | 1:10 | 92% | 2.40 |
| Wrecking Crew | 1:10 | 92% | 2.40 |
| Future Stars | 1:25 | 62% | 0.96 |
| Perspectives | 1:25 | 62% | 0.96 |
| Chrome Rivals Home | 1:40 | 46% | 0.60 |
| Wild Style | 1:40 | 46% | 0.60 |
| Diamond Moments | 1:120 | 18% | 0.20 |
| Chrome Radiating Rookies | 1:480 | 4.9% | 0.05 |
| Shadow Etch | 1:480 | 4.9% | 0.05 |
| Ink Strokes | 1:500 | 4.7% | 0.05 |
| Ink Strokes Blue | 1:901 | 2.6% | 0.03 |
| Ink Strokes Green | 1:1,279 | 1.9% | 0.02 |
| Hobby Masters | 1:1,487 | 1.6% | 0.02 |
| Ultraviolet | 1:1,516 | 1.6% | 0.02 |
| World Series At Night | 1:1,705 | 1.4% | 0.01 |
| 1991 Topps Baseball Green | 1:1,723 | 1.4% | 0.01 |
| Big Ticket Players Green | 1:2,066 | 1.2% | 0.01 |
| Wrecking Crew Green | 1:2,066 | 1.2% | 0.01 |
| 1991 Topps Baseball Purple | 1:2,274 | 1.1% | 0.01 |
| Ink Strokes Gold | 1:2,347 | 1.0% | 0.01 |
| Chrome Rivals Home Green | 1:2,396 | 1.0% | 0.01 |
| Wild Style Green | 1:2,396 | 1.0% | 0.01 |
| Big Ticket Players Purple | 1:2,727 | 0.9% | 0.01 |
| Wrecking Crew Purple | 1:2,727 | 0.9% | 0.01 |
| Chrome Rivals Home Purple | 1:3,162 | 0.8% | 0.01 |
| Wild Style Purple | 1:3,162 | 0.8% | 0.01 |
| 1991 Topps Baseball Gold | 1:3,412 | 0.7% | 0.01 |
| Helix | 1:3,412 | 0.7% | 0.01 |
| Big Ticket Players Gold | 1:4,094 | 0.6% | 0.01 |
| Wrecking Crew Gold | 1:4,094 | 0.6% | 0.01 |
| Ink Strokes Orange | 1:4,686 | 0.5% | 0.01 |
| Chrome Rivals Home Gold | 1:4,748 | 0.5% | 0.01 |
| Wild Style Gold | 1:4,748 | 0.5% | 0.01 |
| Future Stars Green | 1:5,161 | 0.5% | 0 |
| Perspectives Green | 1:5,161 | 0.5% | 0 |
| Chromographs | 1:5,521 | 0.4% | 0 |
| Topps Chrome Champion Gold | 1:6,402 | 0.4% | 0 |
| 1991 Topps Baseball Orange | 1:6,816 | 0.4% | 0 |
| Future Stars Purple | 1:6,816 | 0.4% | 0 |
| Perspectives Purple | 1:6,816 | 0.4% | 0 |
| Big Ticket Players Orange | 1:8,163 | 0.3% | 0 |
| Wrecking Crew Orange | 1:8,163 | 0.3% | 0 |
| Chrome Rivals Home Orange | 1:9,465 | 0.3% | 0 |
| Wild Style Orange | 1:9,465 | 0.3% | 0 |
| Chromographs Orange | 1:9,625 | 0.2% | 0 |
| Shadow Etch Gold | 1:9,892 | 0.2% | 0 |
| Future Stars Gold | 1:10,248 | 0.2% | 0 |
| Perspectives Gold | 1:10,248 | 0.2% | 0 |
| Class of 2025 Cooperstown Calls | 1:11,350 | 0.2% | 0 |
| Ink Strokes Black | 1:11,676 | 0.2% | 0 |
| Minions MLB | 1:12,775 | 0.2% | 0 |
| 1991 Topps Baseball Black | 1:17,059 | 0.1% | 0 |
| Shadow Etch Orange | 1:19,784 | 0.1% | 0 |
| Big Ticket Players Black | 1:20,495 | 0.1% | 0 |
| Future Stars Orange | 1:20,495 | 0.1% | 0 |
| Perspectives Orange | 1:20,495 | 0.1% | 0 |
| Wrecking Crew Black | 1:20,495 | 0.1% | 0 |
| Ink Strokes Red | 1:23,161 | 0.1% | 0 |
| Chrome Rivals Home Black | 1:23,740 | 0.1% | 0 |
| Wild Style Black | 1:23,740 | 0.1% | 0 |
| Chromographs Black | 1:24,143 | 0.1% | 0 |
| Numbers Live Forever | 1:25,899 | 0.1% | 0 |
| Topps Chrome Expose | 1:28,206 | 0.1% | 0 |
| Ink Strokes Printing Plates | 1:29,370 | 0.1% | 0 |
| Award Winners Base Variation | 1:33,126 | 0.1% | 0 |
| 1991 Topps Baseball Red | 1:34,323 | 0.1% | 0 |
| Big Ticket Players Red | 1:40,698 | 0.1% | 0 |
| Wrecking Crew Red | 1:40,698 | 0.1% | 0 |
| Chrome Rivals Home Red | 1:47,480 | 0.1% | 0 |
| Wild Style Red | 1:47,480 | 0.1% | 0 |
| Chromographs Red | 1:47,480 | 0.1% | 0 |
| Shadow Etch Black | 1:49,118 | 0.0% | 0 |
| Future Stars Black | 1:50,872 | 0.0% | 0 |
| Numbers Live Forever Gold | 1:50,872 | 0.0% | 0 |
| Perspectives Black | 1:50,872 | 0.0% | 0 |
| Topps Chrome Expose Red | 1:56,976 | 0.0% | 0 |
| Shadow Etch Red | 1:98,235 | 0.0% | 0 |
| Future Stars Red | 1:101,743 | 0.0% | 0 |
| Numbers Live Forever Orange | 1:101,743 | 0.0% | 0 |
| Perspectives Red | 1:101,743 | 0.0% | 0 |
| Ink Strokes Superfractor | 1:113,952 | 0.0% | 0 |
| Diamond Moments Superfractor | 1:118,700 | 0.0% | 0 |
| 1991 Topps Baseball Superfractor | 1:167,577 | 0.0% | 0 |
| Big Ticket Players Superfractor | 1:203,486 | 0.0% | 0 |
| Wrecking Crew Superfractor | 1:203,486 | 0.0% | 0 |
| Chrome Rivals Home Superfractor | 1:237,400 | 0.0% | 0 |
| Wild Style Superfractor | 1:237,400 | 0.0% | 0 |
| Chromographs Superfractor | 1:237,400 | 0.0% | 0 |
| Chrome Radiating Rookies Superfractor | 1:258,982 | 0.0% | 0 |
| Numbers Live Forever Black | 1:258,982 | 0.0% | 0 |
| Topps Chrome Expose Superfractor | 1:284,880 | 0.0% | 0 |
| Helix Superfractor | 1:316,534 | 0.0% | 0 |
| Topps Chrome Champion Gold Superfractor | 1:316,534 | 0.0% | 0 |
| Ultraviolet Superfractor | 1:316,534 | 0.0% | 0 |
| Hobby Masters Superfractor | 1:406,972 | 0.0% | 0 |
| Future Stars Superfractor | 1:474,800 | 0.0% | 0 |
| Numbers Live Forever Red | 1:474,800 | 0.0% | 0 |
| Perspectives Superfractor | 1:474,800 | 0.0% | 0 |
| Shadow Etch Superfractor | 1:474,800 | 0.0% | 0 |
| Minions MLB Superfractor | 1:1,424,400 | 0.0% | 0 |
| 2025 MLB Commissioner’s Trophy | 1:2,848,800 | 0.0% | 0 |
| Numbers Live Forever Superfractor | 1:2,848,800 | 0.0% | 0 |
| Autographs | |||
| Topps Chrome Rookie Autographs | 1:46 | 41% | 0.52 |
| Topps Chrome Rookie Autographs Refractor | 1:191 | 12% | 0.13 |
| Topps Chrome Rookie Autographs Teal Refractor | 1:299 | 7.7% | 0.08 |
| Topps Chrome Rookie Autographs Yellow Refractor | 1:326 | 7.1% | 0.07 |
| Topps Chrome Rookie Autographs Pink Refractor | 1:357 | 6.5% | 0.07 |
| Topps Chrome Rookie Autographs Aqua Refractor | 1:445 | 5.3% | 0.05 |
| Topps Chrome Rookie Autographs Blue Refractor | 1:577 | 4.1% | 0.04 |
| Topps Chrome Rookie Autographs Green Refractor | 1:886 | 2.7% | 0.03 |
| 75th Diamond Autographs | 1:964 | 2.5% | 0.02 |
| Topps Chrome Rookie Autographs Purple Refractor | 1:1,137 | 2.1% | 0.02 |
| 75th Diamond Autographs Blue | 1:1,460 | 1.6% | 0.02 |
| 75th Diamond Autographs Green | 1:1,507 | 1.6% | 0.02 |
| Topps Chrome Rookie Autographs Gold Refractor | 1:1,680 | 1.4% | 0.01 |
| 75th Diamond Autographs Gold | 1:2,663 | 0.9% | 0.01 |
| Topps Chrome Rookie Autographs White Refractor | 1:2,815 | 0.8% | 0.01 |
| Topps Chrome Rookie Autographs Orange Refractor | 1:3,319 | 0.7% | 0.01 |
| 75th Diamond Autographs Orange | 1:4,854 | 0.5% | 0 |
| World Series Champions Autographs | 1:6,194 | 0.4% | 0 |
| Topps Chrome Rookie Autographs Black Refractor | 1:7,684 | 0.3% | 0 |
| Topps Chrome Legends Autographs Gold Refractor | 1:8,187 | 0.3% | 0 |
| Future Stars Autographs | 1:10,031 | 0.2% | 0 |
| 75th Diamond Autographs Black | 1:12,021 | 0.2% | 0 |
| 2025 World Series Champions Autographs Gold 0.39374999999999999 Refractor | 1:1,2175 | 0.2% | 0 |
| Topps Chrome Rookie Autographs Red Refractor | 1:15,154 | 0.2% | 0 |
| Topps Chrome Legends Autographs Orange Refractor | 1:16,095 | 0.1% | 0 |
| Perspectives Autographs | 1:18,146 | 0.1% | 0 |
| Topps Chrome Radiating Rookies Autographs | 1:18,499 | 0.1% | 0 |
| Topps Chrome Rookie Autographs Printing Plate | 1:19,039 | 0.1% | 0 |
| Future Stars Autographs Gold | 1:19,380 | 0.1% | 0 |
| 75th Diamond Autographs Red | 1:23,940 | 0.1% | 0 |
| 75th Diamond Autographs Printing Plates | 1:30,633 | 0.1% | 0 |
| 1991 Topps Chrome Autographs | 1:31,306 | 0.1% | 0 |
| 1991 Topps Chrome Autographs Gold | 1:32,373 | 0.1% | 0 |
| Topps Chrome Legends Autographs Black Refractor | 1:36,998 | 0.1% | 0 |
| Future Stars Autographs Orange | 1:38,498 | 0.1% | 0 |
| Dual Autographs | 1:49,118 | 0.0% | 0 |
| Perspectives Autographs Orange | 1:51,797 | 0.0% | 0 |
| Perspectives Autographs Gold | 1:52,756 | 0.0% | 0 |
| 1991 Topps Chrome Autographs Orange | 1:61,931 | 0.0% | 0 |
| Topps Chrome Legends Autographs Red Refractor | 1:73,047 | 0.0% | 0 |
| Topps Chrome Rookie Autographs Superfractor | 1:74,251 | 0.0% | 0 |
| Numbers Live Forever Autograph Variation | 1:81,395 | 0.0% | 0 |
| Topps Chrome Legends Autographs Printing Plate | 1:98,235 | 0.0% | 0 |
| Future Stars Autographs Black | 1:98,235 | 0.0% | 0 |
| Class of 2026 Cooperstown Calls Autograph Variation | 1:101,743 | 0.0% | 0 |
| Dual Autographs Black | 1:105,512 | 0.0% | 0 |
| 75th Diamond Autographs Superfractor | 1:118,700 | 0.0% | 0 |
| Perspectives Autographs Black | 1:129,491 | 0.0% | 0 |
| Topps Chrome Mvp Buybacks Autographs | 1:149,936 | 0.0% | 0 |
| 1991 Topps Chrome Autographs Black | 1:149,937 | 0.0% | 0 |
| Numbers Live Forever Autograph Variation Orange | 1:167,577 | 0.0% | 0 |
| Dual Autographs Red | 1:189,920 | 0.0% | 0 |
| Future Stars Autographs Red | 1:189,920 | 0.0% | 0 |
| Class of 2026 Cooperstown Calls Autograph Variation Black | 1:258,982 | 0.0% | 0 |
| Perspectives Autographs Red | 1:258,982 | 0.0% | 0 |
| Topps Autograph Card Jerry Seinfeld | 1:316,534 | 0.0% | 0 |
| 1991 Topps Chrome Autographs Red | 1:316,534 | 0.0% | 0 |
| Topps Chrome Legends Autographs Superfractor | 1:356,100 | 0.0% | 0 |
| Numbers Live Forever Autograph Variation Black | 1:406,972 | 0.0% | 0 |
| Topps Chrome Radiating Rookies Autographs Superfractor | 1:474,800 | 0.0% | 0 |
| Class of 2026 Cooperstown Calls Autograph Variation Red | 1:474,800 | 0.0% | 0 |
| 2025 World Series Champions Autographs Superfractor | 1:569,760 | 0.0% | 0 |
| World Series Champions Autographs Superfractor | 1:712,200 | 0.0% | 0 |
| Topps Autograph Card Jerry Seinfeld Black Refractor | 1:949,600 | 0.0% | 0 |
| Dual Autographs Superfractor | 1:949,600 | 0.0% | 0 |
| Future Stars Autographs Superfractor | 1:949,600 | 0.0% | 0 |
| Numbers Live Forever Autograph Variation Red | 1:949,600 | 0.0% | 0 |
| Topps Autograph Card Jerry Seinfeld Red Refractor | 1:1,424,400 | 0.0% | 0 |
| 1991 Topps Chrome Autographs Superfractor | 1:1,424,400 | 0.0% | 0 |
| Perspectives Autographs Superfractor | 1:1,424,400 | 0.0% | 0 |
| Gold Logoman Autograph Relics Redemption Card | 1:1,424,400 | 0.0% | 0 |
| Topps Autograph Card Jerry Seinfeld Superfractor | 1:2,848,800 | 0.0% | 0 |
| Class of 2026 Cooperstown Calls Autograph Variation Superfractor | 1:2,848,800 | 0.0% | 0 |
| Numbers Live Forever Autograph Variation Superfractor | 1:2,848,800 | 0.0% | 0 |
| Gold Logoman Dual Autograph Relics Redemption Card | 1:2,848,800 | 0.0% | 0 |
| Relics & Memorabilia | |||
| Gold Logoman Relics Redemption Card | 1:316,534 | 0.0% | 0 |
| Gold Logoman Dual Relics Redemption Card | 1:569,760 | 0.0% | 0 |
These are Topps’ official published odds for 2026 Topps Chrome Baseball (Hobby). A parallel’s rate is for any card in that parallel — a specific player is far rarer. The model treats each pack as an independent draw at the stated rate; real collation clusters hits.
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Compare pull rates across Chrome, Bowman, Finest, UFC, F1 and more — every set's official odds in one place.
How the Odds Are Calculated
Topps prints the pull rate of every parallel as “1 in N packs.” The calculator turns that into the numbers people actually ask for:
- Chance of ≥1 — the probability at least one of your packs has that card,
1 − (1 − 1/N)^packs. - Expected — the average number across your packs,
packs / N. - Packs to a 50 / 90 / 95% shot — solving the same formula backwards,
ln(1 − t) / ln(1 − 1/N).
Two honest caveats. A parallel’s odds are for any card in that parallel — a specific player is much rarer. And the model assumes each pack is an independent draw at the stated rate; real Topps collation can cluster or space out hits, so a live box can over- or under-shoot.
Disclaimer: Odds are Topps’ official published figures for 2026 Topps Chrome Baseball. The calculator models each pack as an independent draw at the stated per-pack rate; real openings vary. Not financial advice.
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