2026 Topps Chrome Black Pack Odds Calculator
Set how many packs you’re opening, choose your product configuration, then pick the card you’re chasing from the dropdown. The big figure is your chance of pulling at least one of that parallel, autograph or insert across your packs; the table below prices every parallel at once. All rates are Topps’ official published odds.
| Parallel | Per pack | ≥1 in 24 | Expected |
|---|---|---|---|
| Base Parallels | |||
| Carbon Ink Refractor | 1:27 | 60% | 0.89 |
| Carbon Ink Blue Refractor | 1:28 | 58% | 0.86 |
| Carbon Ink Green Refractor | 1:43 | 43% | 0.56 |
| Carbon Ink Purple Refractor | 1:55 | 36% | 0.44 |
| Carbon Ink Purple Mini Diamond Refractor | 1:55 | 36% | 0.44 |
| Carbon Ink Gold Refractor | 1:81 | 26% | 0.30 |
| Carbon Ink Gold Mini Diamond Refractor | 1:82 | 26% | 0.29 |
| Shrouded Signatures Refractor | 1:94 | 23% | 0.26 |
| Shrouded Signatures Refractor Gold | 1:158 | 14% | 0.15 |
| Carbon Ink Orange Refractor | 1:163 | 14% | 0.15 |
| Glow Up Signatures Refractor | 1:197 | 11% | 0.12 |
| Glow Up Signatures Refractor Gold | 1:212 | 11% | 0.11 |
| Carbon Ink Rose Gold Wave | 1:271 | 8.5% | 0.09 |
| Shrouded Signatures Refractor Orange | 1:316 | 7.3% | 0.08 |
| Glow Up Signatures Refractor Orange | 1:379 | 6.1% | 0.06 |
| Carbon Ink White Refractor | 1:404 | 5.8% | 0.06 |
| Carbon Ink Red Refractor | 1:806 | 2.9% | 0.03 |
| Shrouded Signatures Refractor Red | 1:1,578 | 1.5% | 0.02 |
| Glow Up Signatures Refractor Red | 1:1,894 | 1.3% | 0.01 |
| Inserts | |||
| Carbon Ink Base | 1:40 | 46% | 0.60 |
| Carbon Ink SuperFractor | 1:4,117 | 0.6% | 0.01 |
| Shrouded Signatures SuperFractors | 1:7,890 | 0.3% | 0 |
| Glow Up Signatures SuperFractors | 1:9,468 | 0.3% | 0 |
| Autographs | |||
| Rookie Autographs Base | 1:50 | 38% | 0.48 |
| Rookie Autographs Refractor | 1:58 | 34% | 0.41 |
| Autographs Refractor | 1:71 | 29% | 0.34 |
| Autographs Base | 1:76 | 27% | 0.32 |
| Super Futures Autographs Refractor | 1:76 | 27% | 0.32 |
| Rookie Autographs Purple Refractor | 1:78 | 27% | 0.31 |
| Rookie Autographs Blue Refractor | 1:80 | 26% | 0.30 |
| Rookie Autographs Green Refractor | 1:81 | 26% | 0.30 |
| Rookie Autographs Gold Refractor | 1:85 | 25% | 0.28 |
| Autographs Gold Refractor | 1:89 | 24% | 0.27 |
| Autographs Purple Refractor | 1:98 | 22% | 0.24 |
| Rookie Autographs Purple Mini Diamond Refractor | 1:98 | 22% | 0.24 |
| Ivory Autographs Refractor | 1:98 | 22% | 0.24 |
| Black Fire Autographs Refractor | 1:100 | 21% | 0.24 |
| Super Futures Autographs Refractor Gold | 1:101 | 21% | 0.24 |
| Autographs Green Refractor | 1:115 | 19% | 0.21 |
| Autographs Blue Refractor | 1:116 | 19% | 0.21 |
| Rookie Autographs Gold Mini Diamond Refractor | 1:116 | 19% | 0.21 |
| Rookie Autographs Orange Refractor | 1:162 | 14% | 0.15 |
| Autographs Orange Refractor | 1:173 | 13% | 0.14 |
| Super Futures Autographs Refractor Orange | 1:191 | 12% | 0.13 |
| Ivory Autographs Refractor Orange | 1:196 | 12% | 0.12 |
| Black Fire Autographs Refractor Gold | 1:200 | 11% | 0.12 |
| Rookie Autographs Rose Gold Wave | 1:259 | 8.9% | 0.09 |
| Autographs Rose Gold Wave | 1:282 | 8.2% | 0.09 |
| Autographs Gold Mini Diamond Refractor | 1:318 | 7.3% | 0.08 |
| Autographs Purple Mini Diamond Refractor | 1:363 | 6.4% | 0.07 |
| Rookie Autographs White Refractor | 1:380 | 6.1% | 0.06 |
| Black Fire Autographs Refractor Orange | 1:402 | 5.8% | 0.06 |
| Autographs White Refractor | 1:423 | 5.5% | 0.06 |
| Rookie Autographs Red Refractor | 1:764 | 3.1% | 0.03 |
| Autographs Red Refractor | 1:842 | 2.8% | 0.03 |
| Super Futures Autographs Refractor Red | 1:952 | 2.5% | 0.03 |
| Ivory Autographs Refractor Red | 1:972 | 2.4% | 0.02 |
| Black Fire Autographs Refractor Red | 1:2,015 | 1.2% | 0.01 |
| Rookie Autographs SuperFractor | 1:3,788 | 0.6% | 0.01 |
| Autographs SuperFractor | 1:4,208 | 0.6% | 0.01 |
| Super Futures Autographs SuperFractors | 1:4,734 | 0.5% | 0.01 |
| Ivory Autographs SuperFractors | 1:4,855 | 0.5% | 0 |
| Black Fire Autographs SuperFractors | 1:9,967 | 0.2% | 0 |
These are Topps’ official published odds for 2026 Topps Chrome Black (Hobby Box Topper: Autographs). A parallel’s rate is for any card in that parallel — a specific player is far rarer. The model treats each pack as an independent draw at the stated rate; real collation clusters hits.
How the Odds Are Calculated
Topps prints the pull rate of every parallel as “1 in N packs.” The calculator turns that into the numbers people actually ask for:
- Chance of ≥1 — the probability at least one of your packs has that card,
1 − (1 − 1/N)^packs. - Expected — the average number across your packs,
packs / N. - Packs to a 50 / 90 / 95% shot — solving the same formula backwards,
ln(1 − t) / ln(1 − 1/N).
Two honest caveats. A parallel’s odds are for any card in that parallel — a specific player is much rarer. And the model assumes each pack is an independent draw at the stated rate; real Topps collation can cluster or space out hits, so a live box can over- or under-shoot.
Disclaimer: Odds are Topps’ official published figures for 2026 Topps Chrome Black. The calculator models each pack as an independent draw at the stated per-pack rate; real openings vary. Not financial advice.