2025 Topps Chrome Black Football Pack Odds Calculator
Set how many packs you’re opening then pick the card you’re chasing from the dropdown. The big figure is your chance of pulling at least one of that parallel, autograph or insert across your packs; the table below prices every parallel at once. All rates are Topps’ official published odds.
| Parallel | Per pack | ≥1 in 24 | Expected |
|---|---|---|---|
| Base Parallels | |||
| Base Refractor | 1:6 | 99% | 4 |
| Base Blue Refractor | 1:11 | 90% | 2.18 |
| Base Blue Wave | 1:11 | 90% | 2.18 |
| Rookie Refractor | 1:11 | 90% | 2.18 |
| Base Green Refractor | 1:17 | 77% | 1.41 |
| Base Green Wave | 1:17 | 77% | 1.41 |
| Base Purple Refractor | 1:22 | 67% | 1.09 |
| Rookie Blue Refractor | 1:22 | 67% | 1.09 |
| Rookie Blue Wave | 1:22 | 67% | 1.09 |
| Super Futures Autos Refractor | 1:29 | 57% | 0.83 |
| Base Gold Refractor | 1:33 | 52% | 0.73 |
| Rookie Green Refractor | 1:33 | 52% | 0.73 |
| Rookie Green Wave | 1:33 | 52% | 0.73 |
| Super Futures Autos Gold Refractor | 1:42 | 44% | 0.57 |
| Rookie Purple Refractor | 1:44 | 42% | 0.55 |
| Base Orange Refractor | 1:66 | 31% | 0.36 |
| Rookie Gold Refractor | 1:66 | 31% | 0.36 |
| Ivory Autos Refractor | 1:77 | 27% | 0.31 |
| Super Futures Autos Orange Refractor | 1:84 | 25% | 0.29 |
| Ivory Autos Orange Refractor | 1:97 | 22% | 0.25 |
| Base Rose Gold Wave | 1:109 | 20% | 0.22 |
| Rookie Design Variation Gold Refractor | 1:109 | 20% | 0.22 |
| Rookie Orange Refractor | 1:131 | 17% | 0.18 |
| Depths of Darkness Refractor | 1:134 | 16% | 0.18 |
| Base White Refractor | 1:163 | 14% | 0.15 |
| Rookie Rose Gold Wave | 1:218 | 10% | 0.11 |
| Rookie Design Variation Orange Refractor | 1:218 | 10% | 0.11 |
| Pitch Black Pairings Dual Autos Orange Refractor | 1:246 | 9.3% | 0.10 |
| Base Red Refractor | 1:326 | 7.1% | 0.07 |
| Rookie White Refractor | 1:326 | 7.1% | 0.07 |
| Pitch Black Pairings Dual Autos Refractor | 1:380 | 6.1% | 0.06 |
| Super Futures Autos Red Refractor | 1:420 | 5.6% | 0.06 |
| Ivory Autos Red Refractor | 1:469 | 5.0% | 0.05 |
| Rookie Design Variation White Refractor | 1:544 | 4.3% | 0.04 |
| Rookie Red Refractor | 1:654 | 3.6% | 0.04 |
| Pitch Black Pairings Dual Autos Red Refractor | 1:938 | 2.5% | 0.03 |
| Rookie Design Variation Red Refractor | 1:1090 | 2.2% | 0.02 |
| Depths of Darkness Red Refractor | 1:1635 | 1.5% | 0.01 |
| Inserts | |||
| Base | 3:1 | 100% | — |
| Rookie | 2:1 | 100% | — |
| Base Purple Mini-Diamond | 1:22 | 67% | 1.09 |
| Base Gold Mini-Diamond | 1:33 | 52% | 0.73 |
| Rookie Design Variation | 1:40 | 46% | 0.60 |
| Rookie Purple Mini-Diamond | 1:44 | 42% | 0.55 |
| Rookie Gold Mini-Diamond | 1:66 | 31% | 0.36 |
| Hit The Lights | 1:205 | 11% | 0.12 |
| Nocturnal | 1:205 | 11% | 0.12 |
| Black Lightning | 1:256 | 9.0% | 0.09 |
| Base Superfractor | 1:1635 | 1.5% | 0.01 |
| Super Futures Autos Superfractor | 1:2097 | 1.1% | 0.01 |
| Ivory Autos Superfractor | 1:2344 | 1.0% | 0.01 |
| Rookie Superfractor | 1:3340 | 0.7% | 0.01 |
| Pitch Black Pairings Dual Autos Superfractor | 1:4687 | 0.5% | 0.01 |
| Rookie Design Variation Superfractor | 1:5813 | 0.4% | 0 |
| Hit The Lights Superfractor | 1:7134 | 0.3% | 0 |
| Nocturnal Superfractor | 1:7134 | 0.3% | 0 |
| Black Lightning Superfractor | 1:9232 | 0.3% | 0 |
| Depths of Darkness Superfractor | 1:9232 | 0.3% | 0 |
| Autographs | |||
| Rookie Autographs | 1:3 | 100% | 8 |
| Rookie Autographs Refractor | 1:8 | 96% | 3 |
| Rookie Autographs Blue Refractor | 1:15 | 81% | 1.60 |
| Autographs | 1:21 | 69% | 1.14 |
| Rookie Autographs Green Refractor | 1:22 | 67% | 1.09 |
| Rookie Autographs Purple Refractor | 1:29 | 57% | 0.83 |
| Rookie Autographs Purple Mini-Diamond | 1:29 | 57% | 0.83 |
| Autographs Gold Refractor | 1:37 | 48% | 0.65 |
| Autographs Gold Mini-Diamond | 1:37 | 48% | 0.65 |
| Rookie Autographs Gold Mini-Diamond | 1:42 | 44% | 0.57 |
| Rookie Autographs Gold Refractor | 1:43 | 43% | 0.56 |
| Autographs Green Refractor | 1:45 | 42% | 0.53 |
| Autographs Purple Refractor | 1:49 | 39% | 0.49 |
| Autographs Purple Mini-Diamond | 1:49 | 39% | 0.49 |
| Autographs Orange Refractor | 1:55 | 36% | 0.44 |
| Autographs Blue Refractor | 1:76 | 27% | 0.32 |
| Rookie Autographs Orange Refractor | 1:82 | 26% | 0.29 |
| Autographs Refractor | 1:90 | 24% | 0.27 |
| Autographs Rose Gold Wave | 1:91 | 23% | 0.26 |
| Rookie Autographs Rose Gold Wave | 1:133 | 17% | 0.18 |
| Autographs White Refractor | 1:136 | 16% | 0.18 |
| Rookie Autographs White Refractor | 1:200 | 11% | 0.12 |
| Autographs Red Refractor | 1:271 | 8.5% | 0.09 |
| Rookie Autographs Red Refractor | 1:399 | 5.8% | 0.06 |
| Autographs Superfractor | 1:1351 | 1.8% | 0.02 |
| Rookie Autographs Superfractor | 1:1992 | 1.2% | 0.01 |
These are Topps’ official published odds for 2025 Topps Chrome Black Football (Or). A parallel’s rate is for any card in that parallel — a specific player is far rarer. The model treats each pack as an independent draw at the stated rate; real collation clusters hits.
How the Odds Are Calculated
Topps prints the pull rate of every parallel as “1 in N packs.” The calculator turns that into the numbers people actually ask for:
- Chance of ≥1 — the probability at least one of your packs has that card,
1 − (1 − 1/N)^packs. - Expected — the average number across your packs,
packs / N. - Packs to a 50 / 90 / 95% shot — solving the same formula backwards,
ln(1 − t) / ln(1 − 1/N).
Two honest caveats. A parallel’s odds are for any card in that parallel — a specific player is much rarer. And the model assumes each pack is an independent draw at the stated rate; real Topps collation can cluster or space out hits, so a live box can over- or under-shoot.
Disclaimer: Odds are Topps’ official published figures for 2025 Topps Chrome Black Football. The calculator models each pack as an independent draw at the stated per-pack rate; real openings vary. Not financial advice.