An interactive 2026 Topps Chrome Black Baseball pack odds calculator built on Topps' official published odds. Enter how many packs you're opening — pick any refractor, parallel, autograph or insert — and get your live chance of at least one, the expected count, and how many packs it takes for a 50/90/95% shot.
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By tcgtalk
Apr 2026· 5 min read
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Configurations
1
Odds Rows
68
Autographs
29
Base Parallels
31
2026 Topps Chrome Black Baseball Pack Odds Calculator
Set how many packs you’re opening then pick the card you’re chasing from the dropdown. The big figure is your chance of pulling at least one of that parallel, autograph or insert across your packs; the table below prices every parallel at once. All rates are Topps’ official published odds.
How many packs are you opening?
packs
What are you chasing?
24 packs · Standard · Chrome Black Autograph Cards
98%
chance of at least one Chrome Black Autograph Cards across 24 packs
≈ 3.43 expectedbase 1 in 7≈ 5 packs for 50%
Packs to hit
Parallel
Per pack
≥1 in 24
Expected
Chrome Black Autograph Cards
1:7
98%
3.43
Chrome Black Autograph Cards Refractor
1:15
81%
1.60
Chrome Black Autograph Cards Blue Refractor
1:17
77%
1.41
Chrome Black Autograph Cards Green Refractor
1:20
71%
1.20
Chrome Black Autograph Cards Purple Refractor
1:25
62%
0.96
Chrome Black Autograph Cards Gold Refractor
1:36
49%
0.67
Chrome Black Autograph Cards Gold Mini Diamond Refractor
1:36
49%
0.67
Chrome Black Autograph Cards Orange Refractor
1:66
31%
0.36
Chrome Black Autograph Cards Orange Mini Diamond Refractor
1:66
31%
0.36
Super Future Autographs
1:80
26%
0.30
Ivory Autographs
1:120
18%
0.20
Super Future Autographs Gold Refractor
1:157
14%
0.15
Chrome Black Autograph Cards Rose Gold Refractor
1:160
14%
0.15
Chrome Black Autograph Cards Rose Gold Mini Diamond Refractor
1:160
14%
0.15
Ivory Autographs Orange Trim
1:217
10%
0.11
Chrome Black Autograph Cards Red Refractor
1:313
7.4%
0.08
Chrome Black Autograph Cards Red Mini Diamond Refractor
1:313
7.4%
0.08
Super Future Autographs Orange Refractor
1:313
7.4%
0.08
Pitch Black Dual Pairing Autographs
1:483
4.9%
0.05
Pitch Black Dual Pairing Autographs Orange Refractor
1:660
3.6%
0.04
Super Future Autographs Rose Gold Refractor
1:785
3.0%
0.03
Ivory Autographs Red Trim
1:953
2.5%
0.03
Pitch Black Dual Pairing Autographs Rose Gold Refractor
1:1,275
1.9%
0.02
Super Future Autographs Red Refractor
1:1,556
1.5%
0.02
Chrome Black Autograph Cards Superfractor
1:1,571
1.5%
0.02
Pitch Black Dual Pairing Autographs Red Refractor
1:2,459
1.0%
0.01
Ivory Autographs Superfractor
1:4,712
0.5%
0.01
Super Future Autographs Superfractor
1:7,711
0.3%
0
Pitch Black Dual Pairing Autographs Superfractor
1:12,118
0.2%
0
These are Topps’ official published odds for 2026 Topps Chrome Black Baseball (Standard). A parallel’s rate is for any card in that parallel — a specific player is far rarer. The model treats each pack as an independent draw at the stated rate; real collation clusters hits.
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Browse every Topps odds calculator
Compare pull rates across Chrome, Bowman, Finest, UFC, F1 and more — every set's official odds in one place.
Topps prints the pull rate of every parallel as “1 in N packs.” The calculator turns that into the numbers people actually ask for:
Chance of ≥1 — the probability at least one of your packs has that card, 1 − (1 − 1/N)^packs.
Expected — the average number across your packs, packs / N.
Packs to a 50 / 90 / 95% shot — solving the same formula backwards, ln(1 − t) / ln(1 − 1/N).
Two honest caveats. A parallel’s odds are for any card in that parallel — a specific player is much rarer. And the model assumes each pack is an independent draw at the stated rate; real Topps collation can cluster or space out hits, so a live box can over- or under-shoot.
Disclaimer: Odds are Topps’ official published figures for 2026 Topps Chrome Black Baseball. The calculator models each pack as an independent draw at the stated per-pack rate; real openings vary. Not financial advice.
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