2026 Topps Chrome Black Baseball Pack Odds Calculator
Set how many packs you’re opening then pick the card you’re chasing from the dropdown. The big figure is your chance of pulling at least one of that parallel, autograph or insert across your packs; the table below prices every parallel at once. All rates are Topps’ official published odds.
| Parallel | Per pack | ≥1 in 24 | Expected |
|---|---|---|---|
| Base Parallels | |||
| Base Cards | 1:1 | 100% | — |
| Base Cards Refractor | 1:6 | 99% | 4 |
| Base Cards Blue Refractor | 1:8 | 96% | 3 |
| Base Cards Green Refractor | 1:12 | 88% | 2 |
| Base Cards Purple Refractor | 1:16 | 79% | 1.50 |
| Base Cards Purple Mini-Diamond Refractor | 1:16 | 79% | 1.50 |
| Base Cards Purple Wave Refractor | 1:16 | 79% | 1.50 |
| Base Cards Gold Refractor | 1:24 | 64% | 1 |
| Base Cards Gold Mini Diamond Refractor | 1:24 | 64% | 1 |
| Base Cards Gold Wave Refractor | 1:24 | 64% | 1 |
| Base Card Rookie Design Variation | 1:24 | 64% | 1 |
| Base Cards Orange Refractor | 1:47 | 40% | 0.51 |
| Base Cards Orange Mini Diamond Refractor | 1:47 | 40% | 0.51 |
| Base Cards Orange Wave Refractor | 1:47 | 40% | 0.51 |
| Base Card Rookie Design Variation Purple Refractor | 1:79 | 26% | 0.30 |
| Base Cards Rose Gold Refractor | 1:118 | 18% | 0.20 |
| Base Cards Rose Gold Mini Diamond Refractor | 1:118 | 18% | 0.20 |
| Base Cards Rose Gold Wave Refractor | 1:118 | 18% | 0.20 |
| Base Card Rookie Design Variation Gold Refractor | 1:118 | 18% | 0.20 |
| Depth of Darkness Refractor | 1:121 | 18% | 0.20 |
| Base Cards Red Refractor | 1:235 | 9.7% | 0.10 |
| Base Cards Red Mini Diamond Refractor | 1:235 | 9.7% | 0.10 |
| Base Cards Red Wave Refractor | 1:235 | 9.7% | 0.10 |
| Base Card Rookie Design Variation Orange Refractor | 1:235 | 9.7% | 0.10 |
| Base Card Rookie Design Variation Rose Gold Refractor | 1:588 | 4.0% | 0.04 |
| Base Cards Superfractor | 1:1,179 | 2.0% | 0.02 |
| Base Card Rookie Design Variation Red Refractor | 1:1,179 | 2.0% | 0.02 |
| Depth of Darkness Red Refractor | 1:1,768 | 1.3% | 0.01 |
| Paint It! Red Refractor | 1:1,972 | 1.2% | 0.01 |
| Base Card Rookie Design Variation Superfractor | 1:5,850 | 0.4% | 0 |
| Home Field Black Refractor | 1:8,482 | 0.3% | 0 |
| Inserts | |||
| Nocturnal | 1:49 | 39% | 0.49 |
| Damascus | 1:73 | 28% | 0.33 |
| Home Field | 1:176 | 13% | 0.14 |
| Paint It! | 1:947 | 2.5% | 0.03 |
| Nocturnal Superfractor | 1:4,350 | 0.6% | 0.01 |
| Damascus Superfractor | 1:6,284 | 0.4% | 0 |
| Depth of Darkness Superfractor | 1:8,482 | 0.3% | 0 |
| Paint It! Superfractor | 1:8,929 | 0.3% | 0 |
| Autographs | |||
| Chrome Black Autograph Cards | 1:7 | 98% | 3.43 |
| Chrome Black Autograph Cards Refractor | 1:15 | 81% | 1.60 |
| Chrome Black Autograph Cards Blue Refractor | 1:17 | 77% | 1.41 |
| Chrome Black Autograph Cards Green Refractor | 1:20 | 71% | 1.20 |
| Chrome Black Autograph Cards Purple Refractor | 1:25 | 62% | 0.96 |
| Chrome Black Autograph Cards Gold Refractor | 1:36 | 49% | 0.67 |
| Chrome Black Autograph Cards Gold Mini Diamond Refractor | 1:36 | 49% | 0.67 |
| Chrome Black Autograph Cards Orange Refractor | 1:66 | 31% | 0.36 |
| Chrome Black Autograph Cards Orange Mini Diamond Refractor | 1:66 | 31% | 0.36 |
| Super Future Autographs | 1:80 | 26% | 0.30 |
| Ivory Autographs | 1:120 | 18% | 0.20 |
| Super Future Autographs Gold Refractor | 1:157 | 14% | 0.15 |
| Chrome Black Autograph Cards Rose Gold Refractor | 1:160 | 14% | 0.15 |
| Chrome Black Autograph Cards Rose Gold Mini Diamond Refractor | 1:160 | 14% | 0.15 |
| Ivory Autographs Orange Trim | 1:217 | 10% | 0.11 |
| Chrome Black Autograph Cards Red Refractor | 1:313 | 7.4% | 0.08 |
| Chrome Black Autograph Cards Red Mini Diamond Refractor | 1:313 | 7.4% | 0.08 |
| Super Future Autographs Orange Refractor | 1:313 | 7.4% | 0.08 |
| Pitch Black Dual Pairing Autographs | 1:483 | 4.9% | 0.05 |
| Pitch Black Dual Pairing Autographs Orange Refractor | 1:660 | 3.6% | 0.04 |
| Super Future Autographs Rose Gold Refractor | 1:785 | 3.0% | 0.03 |
| Ivory Autographs Red Trim | 1:953 | 2.5% | 0.03 |
| Pitch Black Dual Pairing Autographs Rose Gold Refractor | 1:1,275 | 1.9% | 0.02 |
| Super Future Autographs Red Refractor | 1:1,556 | 1.5% | 0.02 |
| Chrome Black Autograph Cards Superfractor | 1:1,571 | 1.5% | 0.02 |
| Pitch Black Dual Pairing Autographs Red Refractor | 1:2,459 | 1.0% | 0.01 |
| Ivory Autographs Superfractor | 1:4,712 | 0.5% | 0.01 |
| Super Future Autographs Superfractor | 1:7,711 | 0.3% | 0 |
| Pitch Black Dual Pairing Autographs Superfractor | 1:12,118 | 0.2% | 0 |
These are Topps’ official published odds for 2026 Topps Chrome Black Baseball (Standard). A parallel’s rate is for any card in that parallel — a specific player is far rarer. The model treats each pack as an independent draw at the stated rate; real collation clusters hits.
How the Odds Are Calculated
Topps prints the pull rate of every parallel as “1 in N packs.” The calculator turns that into the numbers people actually ask for:
- Chance of ≥1 — the probability at least one of your packs has that card,
1 − (1 − 1/N)^packs. - Expected — the average number across your packs,
packs / N. - Packs to a 50 / 90 / 95% shot — solving the same formula backwards,
ln(1 − t) / ln(1 − 1/N).
Two honest caveats. A parallel’s odds are for any card in that parallel — a specific player is much rarer. And the model assumes each pack is an independent draw at the stated rate; real Topps collation can cluster or space out hits, so a live box can over- or under-shoot.
Disclaimer: Odds are Topps’ official published figures for 2026 Topps Chrome Black Baseball. The calculator models each pack as an independent draw at the stated per-pack rate; real openings vary. Not financial advice.