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Configurations
4
Odds Rows
703
Autographs
40
Base Parallels
113
2026 Topps Finest Baseball Pack Odds Calculator
Set how many packs you’re opening, choose your product configuration, then pick the card you’re chasing from the dropdown. The big figure is your chance of pulling at least one of that parallel, autograph or insert across your packs; the table below prices every parallel at once. All rates are Topps’ official published odds.
Product configuration
How many packs are you opening?
packs
What are you chasing?
24 packs · Hobby · Finest Autographs
90%
chance of at least one Finest Autographs across 24 packs
≈ 2.18 expectedbase 1 in 11≈ 8 packs for 50%
Packs to hit
Every parallel in Hobby
| Parallel | Per pack | ≥1 in 24 | Expected |
|---|---|---|---|
| Base Parallels | |||
| Base Cards Uncommon | 1:1 | 100% | — |
| Base Cards Common X-Fractor | 1:2 | 100% | 12 |
| Base Cards Common Refractor | 1:3 | 100% | 8 |
| Base Cards Rare | 1:3 | 100% | 8 |
| Base Cards Uncommon X-Fractor | 1:4 | 100% | 6 |
| Base Cards Rare X-Fractor | 1:12 | 88% | 2 |
| Base Cards Uncommon Refractor | 1:16 | 79% | 1.50 |
| Arrivals Refractor | 1:24 | 64% | 1 |
| Topps Team Finest Refractor | 1:24 | 64% | 1 |
| Worlds Finest Refractor | 1:24 | 64% | 1 |
| Base Cards Common Yellow Refractor | 1:28 | 58% | 0.86 |
| Base Cards Uncommon Yellow Refractor | 1:28 | 58% | 0.86 |
| Base Cards Rare Yellow Refractor | 1:28 | 58% | 0.86 |
| Base Cards Common Pink Refractor | 1:31 | 54% | 0.77 |
| Base Cards Uncommon Pink Refractor | 1:31 | 54% | 0.77 |
| Base Cards Rare Pink Refractor | 1:31 | 54% | 0.77 |
| Base Cards Common Aqua Refractor | 1:38 | 47% | 0.63 |
| Base Cards Uncommon Aqua Refractor | 1:38 | 47% | 0.63 |
| Base Cards Rare Aqua Refractor | 1:38 | 47% | 0.63 |
| Finest Timelines Refractor | 1:40 | 46% | 0.60 |
| Base Cards Common Green X-Fractor | 1:42 | 44% | 0.57 |
| Base Cards Uncommon Green X-Fractor | 1:42 | 44% | 0.57 |
| Base Cards Rare Green X-Fractor | 1:42 | 44% | 0.57 |
| Base Cards Rare Refractor | 1:48 | 40% | 0.50 |
| Base Cards Common Blue Refractor | 1:51 | 38% | 0.47 |
| Base Cards Uncommon Blue Refractor | 1:51 | 38% | 0.47 |
| Base Cards Rare Blue Refractor | 1:51 | 38% | 0.47 |
| Base Cards Super Rare | 1:54 | 36% | 0.44 |
| Base Cards Common Purple X-Fractor | 1:55 | 36% | 0.44 |
| Base Cards Uncommon Purple X-Fractor | 1:55 | 36% | 0.44 |
| Base Cards Rare Purple X-Fractor | 1:55 | 36% | 0.44 |
| Base Cards Common Green Refractor | 1:77 | 27% | 0.31 |
| Base Cards Uncommon Green Refractor | 1:77 | 27% | 0.31 |
| Base Cards Rare Green Refractor | 1:77 | 27% | 0.31 |
| Base Cards Common Gold X-Fractor | 1:83 | 25% | 0.29 |
| Base Cards Uncommon Gold X-Fractor | 1:83 | 25% | 0.29 |
| Base Cards Rare Gold X-Fractor | 1:83 | 25% | 0.29 |
| Base Cards Common Purple Refractor | 1:101 | 21% | 0.24 |
| Base Cards Uncommon Purple Refractor | 1:101 | 21% | 0.24 |
| Base Cards Rare Purple Refractor | 1:101 | 21% | 0.24 |
| Base Cards Common Oil Spill Refractor | 1:131 | 17% | 0.18 |
| Base Cards Common White X-Fractor | 1:138 | 16% | 0.17 |
| Base Cards Uncommon White X-Fractor | 1:138 | 16% | 0.17 |
| Base Cards Rare White X-Fractor | 1:138 | 16% | 0.17 |
| Base Cards Common Gold Refractor | 1:152 | 15% | 0.16 |
| Base Cards Uncommon Gold Refractor | 1:152 | 15% | 0.16 |
| Base Cards Rare Gold Refractor | 1:152 | 15% | 0.16 |
| Base Cards Common Orange X-Fractor | 1:165 | 14% | 0.15 |
| Base Cards Uncommon Orange X-Fractor | 1:165 | 14% | 0.15 |
| Base Cards Rare Orange X-Fractor | 1:165 | 14% | 0.15 |
| Worlds Finest Green Refractor | 1:218 | 10% | 0.11 |
| Base Cards Common White Refractor | 1:252 | 9.1% | 0.10 |
| Base Cards Uncommon White Refractor | 1:252 | 9.1% | 0.10 |
| Base Cards Rare White Refractor | 1:252 | 9.1% | 0.10 |
| Arrivals Green Refractor | 1:255 | 9.0% | 0.09 |
| Worlds Finest Purple Refractor | 1:288 | 8.0% | 0.08 |
| Base Cards Common Orange Refractor | 1:303 | 7.6% | 0.08 |
| Base Cards Uncommon Orange Refractor | 1:303 | 7.6% | 0.08 |
| Base Cards Rare Orange Refractor | 1:303 | 7.6% | 0.08 |
| Topps Team Finest Green Refractor | 1:306 | 7.6% | 0.08 |
| Base Cards Uncommon Oil Spill Refractor | 1:316 | 7.3% | 0.08 |
| Arrivals Purple Refractor | 1:336 | 6.9% | 0.07 |
| Topps Team Finest Purple Refractor | 1:403 | 5.8% | 0.06 |
| Base Cards Common Black X-Fractor | 1:413 | 5.7% | 0.06 |
| Base Cards Uncommon Black X-Fractor | 1:413 | 5.7% | 0.06 |
| Base Cards Rare Black X-Fractor | 1:413 | 5.7% | 0.06 |
| Finest Ink Gold Refractor | 1:420 | 5.6% | 0.06 |
| Finest Ink Green Refractor | 1:428 | 5.5% | 0.06 |
| Worlds Finest Gold Refractor | 1:433 | 5.4% | 0.06 |
| Arrivals Gold Refractor | 1:504 | 4.7% | 0.05 |
| Topps Team Finest Gold Refractor | 1:604 | 3.9% | 0.04 |
| Base Cards Common Black Refractor | 1:756 | 3.1% | 0.03 |
| Base Cards Uncommon Black Refractor | 1:756 | 3.1% | 0.03 |
| Base Cards Rare Black Refractor | 1:756 | 3.1% | 0.03 |
| Finest Timelines Green Refractor | 1:763 | 3.1% | 0.03 |
| Finest Ink Orange Refractor | 1:768 | 3.1% | 0.03 |
| Base Cards Rare Oil Spill Refractor | 1:790 | 3.0% | 0.03 |
| Base Cards Common Red X-Fractor | 1:826 | 2.9% | 0.03 |
| Base Cards Uncommon Red X-Fractor | 1:826 | 2.9% | 0.03 |
| Base Cards Rare Red X-Fractor | 1:826 | 2.9% | 0.03 |
| Arrivals Orange Refractor | 1:865 | 2.7% | 0.03 |
| Worlds Finest Orange Refractor | 1:865 | 2.7% | 0.03 |
| Base Cards Super Rare Black Refractor | 1:909 | 2.6% | 0.03 |
| Finest Timelines Purple Refractor | 1:1,007 | 2.4% | 0.02 |
| Gustographs Black Refractor | 1:1,092 | 2.2% | 0.02 |
| Topps Team Finest Orange Refractor | 1:1,207 | 2.0% | 0.02 |
| Finest Timelines Gold Refractor | 1:1,510 | 1.6% | 0.02 |
| Base Cards Common Red Refractor | 1:1,511 | 1.6% | 0.02 |
| Base Cards Uncommon Red Refractor | 1:1,511 | 1.6% | 0.02 |
| Base Cards Rare Red Refractor | 1:1,511 | 1.6% | 0.02 |
| Base Cards Super Rare Red Refractor | 1:1,813 | 1.3% | 0.01 |
| Finest Ink Black Refractor | 1:1,949 | 1.2% | 0.01 |
| Arrivals Black Refractor | 1:2,166 | 1.1% | 0.01 |
| Worlds Finest Black Refractor | 1:2,166 | 1.1% | 0.01 |
| Gustographs Red Refractor | 1:2,240 | 1.1% | 0.01 |
| Gusto Oil Spill Refractor | 1:2,845 | 0.8% | 0.01 |
| Smashing Through Oil Spill Refractor | 1:2,845 | 0.8% | 0.01 |
| Finest Timelines Orange Refractor | 1:3,021 | 0.8% | 0.01 |
| Topps Team Finest Black Refractor | 1:3,022 | 0.8% | 0.01 |
| Finest Ink Red Refractor | 1:3,712 | 0.6% | 0.01 |
| Arrivals Red Refractor | 1:4,331 | 0.6% | 0.01 |
| Worlds Finest Red Refractor | 1:4,331 | 0.6% | 0.01 |
| Gusto Red Refractor | 1:5,732 | 0.4% | 0 |
| Smashing Through Red Refractor | 1:5,732 | 0.4% | 0 |
| The Man Oil Spill Refractor | 1:5,732 | 0.4% | 0 |
| Topps Team Finest Red Refractor | 1:6,090 | 0.4% | 0 |
| Finest Timelines Black Refractor | 1:7,641 | 0.3% | 0 |
| Base Cards Common Superfractor | 1:7,642 | 0.3% | 0 |
| Base Cards Uncommon Superfractor | 1:7,642 | 0.3% | 0 |
| Base Cards Rare Superfractor | 1:7,642 | 0.3% | 0 |
| Base Cards Super Rare Superfractor | 1:9,064 | 0.3% | 0 |
| The Man Red Refractor | 1:11,463 | 0.2% | 0 |
| Finest Timelines Red Refractor | 1:14,989 | 0.2% | 0 |
| Inserts | |||
| Arrivals | 1:3 | 100% | 8 |
| Topps Team Finest | 1:3 | 100% | 8 |
| Worlds Finest | 1:3 | 100% | 8 |
| Finest Timelines | 1:4 | 100% | 6 |
| Finest Ink | 1:111 | 20% | 0.22 |
| Gusto | 1:163 | 14% | 0.15 |
| Smashing Through | 1:163 | 14% | 0.15 |
| The Man | 1:327 | 7.1% | 0.07 |
| Gustographs | 1:424 | 5.5% | 0.06 |
| Nightmare Fuel | 1:571 | 4.1% | 0.04 |
| Headliners | 1:762 | 3.1% | 0.03 |
| Aura | 1:1,143 | 2.1% | 0.02 |
| Finest Mystery Redemption | 1:4,585 | 0.5% | 0.01 |
| Gustographs Superfractor | 1:10,533 | 0.2% | 0 |
| Finest Ink Superfractor | 1:18,558 | 0.1% | 0 |
| Arrivals Superfractor | 1:21,651 | 0.1% | 0 |
| Worlds Finest Superfractor | 1:21,651 | 0.1% | 0 |
| Gusto Superfractor | 1:27,837 | 0.1% | 0 |
| Nightmare Fuel Superfractor | 1:27,837 | 0.1% | 0 |
| Smashing Through Superfractor | 1:27,837 | 0.1% | 0 |
| Topps Team Finest Superfractor | 1:29,978 | 0.1% | 0 |
| Headliners Superfractor | 1:35,429 | 0.1% | 0 |
| Aura Superfractor | 1:55,674 | 0.0% | 0 |
| The Man Superfractor | 1:55,674 | 0.0% | 0 |
| Finest Timelines Superfractor | 1:77,943 | 0.0% | 0 |
| Autographs | |||
| Finest Autographs | 1:11 | 90% | 2.18 |
| Finest Autographs Refractor | 1:21 | 69% | 1.14 |
| Finest Autographs Blue Refractor | 1:35 | 50% | 0.69 |
| Finest Autographs Green Refractor | 1:38 | 47% | 0.63 |
| Finest Autographs Sky Blue Refractor | 1:41 | 45% | 0.59 |
| Finest Autographs Purple Refractor | 1:45 | 42% | 0.53 |
| Finest Autographs Gold Refractor | 1:61 | 33% | 0.39 |
| Finest Moments Autographs | 1:69 | 30% | 0.35 |
| Finest Rookie Patch Autographs | 1:116 | 19% | 0.21 |
| Finest Autographs Orange Refractor | 1:121 | 18% | 0.20 |
| Finest Personality Autographs | 1:139 | 16% | 0.17 |
| Finest Rookie Patch Autographs Purple Refractor | 1:218 | 10% | 0.11 |
| Finest Rookie Patch Autographs Green Refractor | 1:231 | 9.9% | 0.10 |
| Finest Rookie Patch Autographs Gold Refractor | 1:262 | 8.8% | 0.09 |
| Finest Moments Autographs Gold Refractor | 1:268 | 8.6% | 0.09 |
| Finest Autographs Black Refractor | 1:320 | 7.2% | 0.08 |
| Finest Rookie Patch Autographs Orange Refractor | 1:480 | 4.9% | 0.05 |
| Finest Moments Autographs Orange Refractor | 1:487 | 4.8% | 0.05 |
| Finest Personality Autographs Gold Refractor | 1:515 | 4.6% | 0.05 |
| Finest Autographs Red Refractor | 1:622 | 3.8% | 0.04 |
| Topps Rookie Cup Anniversary Autographs | 1:708 | 3.3% | 0.03 |
| Finest Personality Autographs Orange Refractor | 1:1,026 | 2.3% | 0.02 |
| Finest Rookie Patch Autographs Black Refractor | 1:1,140 | 2.1% | 0.02 |
| Finest Moments Autographs Black Refractor | 1:1,157 | 2.1% | 0.02 |
| Topps Rookie Cup Anniversary Autographs Orange Refractor | 1:1,418 | 1.7% | 0.02 |
| Topps Rookie Cup Dual Autographs | 1:1,505 | 1.6% | 0.02 |
| Finest Moments Autographs Red Refractor | 1:2,253 | 1.1% | 0.01 |
| Finest Rookie Patch Autographs Red Refractor | 1:2,293 | 1.0% | 0.01 |
| Finest Personality Autographs Black Refractor | 1:2,764 | 0.9% | 0.01 |
| Finest Autographs Superfractor | 1:2,953 | 0.8% | 0.01 |
| Topps Rookie Cup Anniversary Autographs Black Refractor | 1:3,511 | 0.7% | 0.01 |
| Topps Rookie Cup Dual Autographs Black Refractor | 1:3,543 | 0.7% | 0.01 |
| Finest Personality Autographs Red Refractor | 1:5,197 | 0.5% | 0 |
| Topps Rookie Cup Anniversary Autographs Red Refractor | 1:6,496 | 0.4% | 0 |
| Topps Rookie Cup Dual Autographs Red Refractor | 1:7,354 | 0.3% | 0 |
| Finest Rookie Patch Autographs Superfractor | 1:10,826 | 0.2% | 0 |
| Finest Moments Autographs Superfractor | 1:11,135 | 0.2% | 0 |
| Finest Personality Autographs Superfractor | 1:25,981 | 0.1% | 0 |
| Topps Rookie Cup Anniversary Autographs Superfractor | 1:32,476 | 0.1% | 0 |
| Topps Rookie Cup Dual Autographs Superfractor | 1:32,476 | 0.1% | 0 |
These are Topps’ official published odds for 2026 Topps Finest Baseball (Hobby). A parallel’s rate is for any card in that parallel — a specific player is far rarer. The model treats each pack as an independent draw at the stated rate; real collation clusters hits.
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Browse every Topps odds calculator
Compare pull rates across Chrome, Bowman, Finest, UFC, F1 and more — every set's official odds in one place.
How the Odds Are Calculated
Topps prints the pull rate of every parallel as “1 in N packs.” The calculator turns that into the numbers people actually ask for:
- Chance of ≥1 — the probability at least one of your packs has that card,
1 − (1 − 1/N)^packs. - Expected — the average number across your packs,
packs / N. - Packs to a 50 / 90 / 95% shot — solving the same formula backwards,
ln(1 − t) / ln(1 − 1/N).
Two honest caveats. A parallel’s odds are for any card in that parallel — a specific player is much rarer. And the model assumes each pack is an independent draw at the stated rate; real Topps collation can cluster or space out hits, so a live box can over- or under-shoot.
Disclaimer: Odds are Topps’ official published figures for 2026 Topps Finest Baseball. The calculator models each pack as an independent draw at the stated per-pack rate; real openings vary. Not financial advice.
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