The Emeka Egbuka 2026 NFL Living Set® card (Card 4) is print-to-order: Topps prints one card for every buyer during the sales window and then stops, so nobody — Topps included — knows the print run until the window has closed. Emeka Egbuka is an early-career NFL player and this card sits very early in the 2026 NFL Living Set run, at number four.
Exactly one tier on this card carries a population Topps actually publishes: the 1/1 Topps Chrome® Superfractor. One copy, by definition. That is enough to compute real odds, and the result is so lopsided that the usual question stops being useful. Nobody needs a calculator to be told a fraction of a percent. What a 1/1 really raises is a cost question: how many cards must you buy for a meaningful chance, and what does each extra percentage point cost you? This page answers that one.
Emeka Egbuka Superfractor Odds Calculator
Enter the final print run (or drag the slider to model a scenario) and your order size. The headline figure is your chance of landing the 1/1 Superfractor, with the order size it would take for a 50%, 90% or 95% shot. The two advertised tiers Topps publishes no count for are listed but are deliberately left out of every calculation.
- Background Variation Short Print — advertised as a short print; Topps states no print run
- Topps Chrome® Refractor Parallel — no serial numbering or population published
| Parallel | Copies | Per card | ≥1 in 20 | Expected |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Chrome Superfractor | ||||
| 1/1 Topps Chrome® Superfractor | 1 | 1 in 10,000 | 0.200% | 0.0020 |
Topps NOW® cards are print-to-order: a parallel numbered to /N has exactly N copies no matter how large the print run grows, so a bigger run makes every numbered card rarer per order — and only above the stated thresholds do the Chrome and Opal tiers exist at all. The model treats each card in your order as an independent draw; Topps does not publish per-order collation, so a real order can over- or under-shoot. The print run is confirmed only after the sales window closes.
Why “What Are My Odds” Is the Wrong Question
A capped card holds the same number of copies however many base cards sell, so the model is exact:
- Chance a single card is the Superfractor:
p = 1 ÷ print run - Chance of at least one across an order of N:
1 − (1 − p)N - Cards needed for a T% chance:
ceil( ln(1 − T) / ln(1 − p) )
Run that last formula on a 1/1 and something clean falls out. Because ln(1 − p) ≈ −p when p is tiny, the cards needed for a 50% chance collapse to ln(2) × print run — about 0.693 × the entire run, at every scenario in the table below. A coin flip on this card means buying roughly seven out of every ten cards printed.
The same arithmetic kills the next rung outright. A 90% chance needs ln(10) × print run, or about 2.303 × the run — more cards than will ever exist. A 90% shot at this Superfractor is not expensive; it is unpurchasable at any price. That is the single most useful sentence on this page, and it is true of every print-to-order 1/1, not just this one.
So the odds themselves carry almost no decision content. The frontier does.
The Cost-Per-Shot Frontier
Every column here is computed from one published fact — the Superfractor is a 1/1 — and one scenario value you choose. The last two columns are the ones worth reading: the cards a coin-flip needs, and that number as a share of the whole run. It is 69.3% at every print run, because the ratio does not depend on the run at all.
| Print Run | Odds per Card | 1 Card | 5 Cards | 10 Cards | 20 Cards | Cards for 50% | % of Run |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2,000 | 1 in 2,000 | 0.0500% | 0.250% | 0.499% | 0.995% | 1,386 | 69.3% |
| 5,000 | 1 in 5,000 | 0.0200% | 0.100% | 0.200% | 0.399% | 3,466 | 69.3% |
| 10,000 | 1 in 10,000 | 0.0100% | 0.0500% | 0.100% | 0.200% | 6,932 | 69.3% |
| 25,000 | 1 in 25,000 | 0.0040% | 0.0200% | 0.0400% | 0.0800% | 17,329 | 69.3% |
| 50,000 | 1 in 50,000 | 0.0020% | 0.0100% | 0.0200% | 0.0400% | 34,658 | 69.3% |
Note the direction of travel across the rows: the more people buy this card, the worse your odds get, because the single Superfractor is spread across a larger run. On print-to-order releases hype works against you, which is the opposite of sealed product.
Put Topps’ own pricing against the coin-flip column and the frontier becomes concrete arithmetic. At the best unit price of $4.50 per card (the 20-card break), the cards needed for a 50% chance cost about $6,237 at a 2,000-card run, $15,597 at 5,000, $31,194 at 10,000, $77,981 at 25,000 and $155,961 at 50,000. Those are multiplications, not valuations: we have no price feed for this card and make no claim about what the 1/1 is worth or whether any of this is a good buy. The point is only that the shot has a computable price, and it is enormous.
What One Percentage Point Costs
The quantity discount is the one lever entirely in your control, and the only part of this that is fully knowable. Here it is as Topps publishes it:
| Order Size | Price Each | Order Total | Saving per Card |
|---|---|---|---|
| 1 card | $8.99 | $8.99 | — |
| 5 cards | $6.50 | $32.49 | 28% |
| 10 cards | $5.50 | $54.99 | 39% |
| 20 cards | $4.50 | $89.99 | 50% |
Now divide each order total by the Superfractor chance it buys. At the 10,000-card scenario:
| Order Size | Order Total | Chance of the 1/1 | Cost per Percentage Point |
|---|---|---|---|
| 1 card | $8.99 | 0.0100% | $899 |
| 5 cards | $32.49 | 0.0500% | $650 |
| 10 cards | $54.99 | 0.100% | $550 |
| 20 cards | $89.99 | 0.200% | $450 |
The discount is real and it does improve the frontier: a point of chance costs $899 bought one card at a time and $450 bought twenty at a time, a genuine halving. It simply cannot improve it enough to matter. A full $89.99 order of 20 cards still buys only 0.2% at a 10,000-card run. Climbing from there to a single full percentage point takes 101 cards in total, about $455 at the same unit price.
The shortcut, if you want to run it on whatever the real print run turns out to be: because p is tiny, the cost per percentage point is approximately unit price × (print run ÷ 100). At $4.50 and a 10,000 run that is $450; at a 2,000 run it is $90; at 50,000 it is $2,250. The frontier scales linearly with the run, and the run is the number you do not control.
The Tiers You Are Actually Chasing
Here is the tension that defines this card, and it is worth stating bluntly. Topps advertises four things on the NFL Living Set® line. The only one we can price is the least attainable one.
| Tier | Published Population | Can we compute odds? |
|---|---|---|
| Open-Edition Base Card | Unlimited — prints to demand | N/A — it is the default |
| Background Variation Short Print | None published — advertised as a short print; Topps states no print run | No |
| Topps Chrome® Refractor Parallel | None published — no serial numbering or population published | No |
| 1/1 Topps Chrome® Superfractor | 1 copy | Yes |
Read that table twice. The Background Variation Short Print and the Topps Chrome® Refractor Parallel are the two tiers a buyer at this price point is realistically chasing — a 1/1 is not a plan — and they are exactly the two Topps gives no number for. “Short print” and “refractor parallel” tell you a tier is scarce; they do not tell you how scarce. Without a copy count there is no honest way to turn either into a probability, so we have not invented one and the calculator above keeps both out of the math entirely.
If you see a specific pull rate quoted anywhere for the Background Variation or the Refractor, it is an estimate — Topps has not released the figure. We will add both to the calculator the day it does.
What Topps Does Not Publish
We would rather be short than wrong, so, plainly, the four things this page cannot tell you:
- The print run. Living Set® prints to demand, and the run is only confirmed after the sales window closes. Every figure above is conditional on the scenario you pick — which is why the calculator takes it as an input rather than hard-coding a number.
- The Background Variation Short Print population. Advertised as a short print; no count stated. Excluded from all odds.
- The Chrome Refractor Parallel population. No serial numbering or population published. Excluded from all odds.
- How hits are collated across one order. Topps does not say whether a multi-card order is drawn independently or batched in any way. Everything here treats each card in an order as an independent draw, which is the standard assumption and the only one the published information supports — so a “0.2% chance across 20 cards” is a statement about 20 independent draws, never a guarantee about any one of them.
Frequently Asked Questions
What are the odds of the Superfractor on the Emeka Egbuka NFL Living Set card?
The Topps Chrome® Superfractor is a 1/1 — exactly one copy exists — so the per-card chance is simply 1 ÷ print run. Living Set® is print-to-order, so that run is not fixed until the sales window closes. At a 10,000-card run, a single card is 0.0100% and an order of 20 is about 0.2%. At a 2,000-card run the same 20-card order is about 0.995%; at 50,000 it is about 0.0400%. Those are the honest figures at every order size Topps sells.
How many cards would I need to buy for a 50% chance at the 1/1?
About 69.3% of the entire print run — the figure is ln(0.5) ÷ ln(1 − 1/run), which works out to roughly 0.693 × run at every scenario. That is 1,386 cards at a 2,000-card run, 3,466 at 5,000, 6,932 at 10,000, 17,329 at 25,000 and 34,658 at 50,000. In other words a coin-flip means buying something close to seven out of every ten cards printed. A 90% chance needs about 2.303 × run, which is more cards than will ever exist — it cannot be bought at any price.
What does one percentage point of Superfractor chance cost?
At a 10,000-card run, roughly $450 per percentage point at the best unit price. Buying one card at $8.99 costs about $899 per point; five at $6.50 each is about $650; ten at $5.50 each is about $550; twenty at $4.50 each is about $450. The quantity discount genuinely lowers the price of a shot — it just cannot lower it enough to matter, because a full $89.99 twenty-card order still only buys 0.2%.
What are the odds of the Background Variation or the Chrome Refractor?
We do not know, and nor does anyone quoting a number. Topps advertises four things on the NFL Living Set® line — an Open-Edition Base Card, a Background Variation Short Print, a Topps Chrome® Refractor Parallel and the Chrome Superfractor 1/1 — but it publishes a population for only the Superfractor. Without a copy count there is no honest way to state a probability for the short print or the refractor, so this page does not state one and both tiers are excluded from every calculation on it.
Why does a bigger print run make the Superfractor harder to hit?
Because there is exactly one copy however many cards sell. One Superfractor in a 2,000-card run is 1 in 2,000; the same single copy in a 50,000-card run is 1 in 50,000 — twenty-five times harder for the identical card. On a print-to-order 1/1, every other buyer is working directly against you, which is the reverse of how sealed product behaves.
Does Topps publish odds for Living Set cards?
No. There are no packs, so there is no odds sheet and no "1 in N" rate. The product line says only that parallels and other non-base hits replace the base card in your order, and that odds of hitting a non-base card are based on total cards ordered. It does not publish the final print run, and it does not say how the hits are collated across a single multi-card order. The one population figure it does state is the Superfractor being a 1/1, which is what this page and the calculator run on.
Disclaimer: Living Set® print runs are set by demand and published only after the sales window closes. Figures here are probabilities and multiplications computed from Topps’ stated 1/1 Superfractor population and a print run you supply — not guarantees, and not a valuation. Tiers without a published population are excluded from all calculations. Each card in an order is treated as an independent draw; Topps does not publish how parallels are collated across an order. Prices and product details are from the official Topps product line pricing and were correct at the time of writing. This is not financial advice.