The Konnor Griffin 2026 MLB Living Set® card (Card 943) is print-to-order: Topps printed one for every buyer during its 16–24 September 2026 window, then stopped. That makes the odds question genuinely different from a sealed box. There is no pack, no odds sheet and no “1 in N” rate — but there is one hard number Topps publishes, and it is enough.
The “Black Bio Text” variation — an homage to a printing quirk in the original 1953 Topps Baseball set — is printed to just 10 editions per subject and slipped into random orders. Ten copies is a fixed population. Divide it by the print run and you have the real per-card probability. That is the whole model, and it is exact.
Konnor Griffin Black Bio Text Odds Calculator
Enter the final print run (or drag the slider to model a scenario) and how many cards you ordered. The headline figure is your chance of landing at least one Black Bio Text variation, with the expected count and the order size it would take for a 50%, 90% or 95% shot.
| Parallel | Copies | Per card | ≥1 in 20 | Expected |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Black Bio Text Variation | ||||
| /10 Black Bio Text Variation | 10 | 1 in 1,000 | 1.98% | 0.020 |
Topps NOW® cards are print-to-order: a parallel numbered to /N has exactly N copies no matter how large the print run grows, so a bigger run makes every numbered card rarer per order — and only above the stated thresholds do the Chrome and Opal tiers exist at all. The model treats each card in your order as an independent draw; Topps does not publish per-order collation, so a real order can over- or under-shoot. The print run is confirmed only after the sales window closes.
How Print-to-Order Odds Work
A capped variation has the same number of copies however many base cards sell. So the maths is simply:
- Chance a single card is the variation:
p = copies ÷ print run=10 ÷ run - Chance of at least one across an order of N:
1 − (1 − p)N - Cards needed for a T% chance:
ceil( ln(1 − T) / ln(1 − p) )
The counter-intuitive consequence is worth stating plainly: the more popular this card is, the worse your odds get. Ten copies inside a 2,000-card run is 1 in 200. The same ten copies inside a 50,000-card run is 1 in 5,000 — twenty-five times harder, for exactly the same card. Print-to-order inverts the usual relationship between hype and scarcity.
| Print Run | Odds per Card | 1 Card | 5 Cards | 10 Cards | 20 Cards | Cards for 50% |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2,000 | 1 in 200 | 0.50% | 2.48% | 4.89% | 9.54% | 139 |
| 5,000 | 1 in 500 | 0.20% | 1.00% | 1.98% | 3.92% | 347 |
| 10,000 | 1 in 1,000 | 0.10% | 0.50% | 1.00% | 1.98% | 693 |
| 25,000 | 1 in 2,500 | 0.040% | 0.20% | 0.40% | 0.80% | 1,733 |
| 50,000 | 1 in 5,000 | 0.020% | 0.100% | 0.20% | 0.40% | 3,466 |
The Quantity Discount: How Many to Order
This is the part of the decision you can actually control, and unusually it is fully knowable. Topps prices the card on a sliding scale, so more cards are both more chances and cheaper per card:
| Order Size | Price Each | Order Total | Saving per Card |
|---|---|---|---|
| 1 card | $8.99 | $8.99 | — |
| 5 cards | $6.50 | $32.49 | 28% |
| 10 cards | $5.50 | $54.99 | 39% |
| 20 cards | $4.50 | $89.99 | 50% |
Twenty cards costs ten times what one costs, but gives twenty times the chances at half the unit price. That is a real edge — and it is still not a route to the variation. At a 10,000-card run, a 50% shot at the Black Bio Text would take about 693 cards, or roughly $3,100 at the twenty-card unit price. Order the quantity you want the base card at; treat the variation as upside, not as the plan.
What Topps Does Not Publish
We would rather be short than wrong, so: the Black Bio Text population is the only figure Topps states for this card. It does not publish the final print run (that comes after the window closes), it does not publish an odds sheet, and it does not say how many orders contain a variation versus how the ten copies are distributed across order sizes. Everything on this page follows from the one published number and the print run you supply — nothing is estimated, and where a figure does not exist we have left it out rather than guessed.
Frequently Asked Questions
What are the odds of pulling the Black Bio Text variation of the Konnor Griffin Living Set card?
It depends entirely on the final print run, because Living Set® is print-to-order. Topps states the Black Bio Text variation is printed to just 10 editions per subject, so its per-card chance is 10 ÷ print run. At a 10,000-card run, an order of 20 has roughly a 1.98% chance of containing one. At a smaller 2,000-card run the same order is about 9.5%; at 50,000 it falls to about 0.4%. Enter the actual run above once it is known.
Does Topps publish odds for Living Set cards?
No. Unlike sealed products, Living Set® has no odds sheet and no "1 in N" rates — there are no packs. The product page says only that "odds of hitting a non-base card are based on total cards ordered." The one hard number Topps does publish for this card is the Black Bio Text population: 10 editions per subject. That single figure, plus the print run, is all the honest math needs — and it is all this page uses.
Why does a bigger print run make the card harder to hit?
Because the variation is capped at 10 copies no matter how many base cards sell. If 2,000 cards are printed, those 10 copies are 1 in 200 cards. If 50,000 are printed, the same 10 copies are 1 in 5,000. So the more popular the card, the worse your per-card odds get. A hyped subject is a harder chase, not an easier one — the opposite of how sealed product works.
Is it worth ordering more cards to improve the odds?
It improves them proportionally, and Topps’ quantity pricing makes the extra cards cheaper: $8.99 for one, down to $4.50 each at twenty — a 50% saving per card. So a 20-card order costs about ten times a single card but gives you twenty times the chances. That said, the absolute numbers stay small: at a 10,000-card run, twenty cards is still only about a 2% shot at the Black Bio Text. Buy the quantity you want the base cards at, and treat the variation as upside.
When is the print run revealed?
After the sales window closes. This card was available from 16 September 2026 and expired on 24 September 2026, and Topps prints to demand during that window, so the total is only fixed once it ends. Until Topps or the collecting community publishes the figure, use the slider above to model a range — the 2,000 to 25,000 band covers most Living Set cards for a non-superstar subject.
Disclaimer: Living Set® print runs are set by demand and published only after the sales window closes. All figures here are probabilities computed from Topps’ stated 10-copy Black Bio Text population and a print run you supply — not guarantees. Prices and product details are from the official Topps product page and were correct at the time of writing. This is not financial advice.