Card prices are sourced from PriceCharting market data (USD). SGD equivalents use an approximate 1.28 exchange rate. Prices reflect current secondary market rates and will change as the set ages.
The Short Answer
Twilight Masquerade is a high-premium set — sealed products trade well above the expected card value they contain. The booster box at market (~USD $340) is nearly 1.7× the break-even price (~USD $205), making market box opening deeply negative EV (0.60×, 5.8% win rate). Even at Singapore retail, the box is only 45.6% likely to profit. The key driver: Greninja ex SIR (#214) at ~$348 and Perrin SIR (#220) at ~$159 dominate the EV, and the IR pool — topped by Eevee (#188, $83) and Chansey (#187, $56) — provides meaningful mid-tier upside.
| Product | Retail Price (USD) | Market Price (USD) | Expected Card Value | Return at Retail | Verdict |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Booster Pack | ~$5.08 | ~$7.62 | $5.69 | 1.12× | +EV at retail. −EV at market. |
| Booster Bundle (6 packs) | ~$30.48 | ~$48.25 | $34.11 | 1.12× | +EV at retail. −EV at market. |
| ~Break-even bundle | ~$34.11 USD (SGD ~$43.66) | $34.11 | 1.0× | Expected value equals cost. | |
| Booster Box (36 packs) | ~$182.88 | ~$339.99 | $204.67 | 1.12× | +EV at retail. −EV at market (0.60×). |
| ~Break-even box | ~$204.67 USD (SGD ~$261.97) | $204.67 | 1.0× | Expected value equals cost. | |
Why the market premium is so high: Twilight Masquerade is one of the most popular SV-era sets due to the Mask Ogerpon ex cycle (four Ogerpon forms as the set mascots) and the massive demand for the Eevee (#188) and Chansey (#187) Illustration Rares. Sealed box prices have been sustained by collectors, making them poor value for pack-opening EV. Retail is the only price point where opening makes mathematical sense.
Card Prices by Rarity
Twilight Masquerade (SV06) has 226 cards across eight rarity tiers, including a large IR pool (21 cards), a substantial SIR tier (11 cards), and the unique ACE SPEC rarity mechanic (5 cards). This is a larger set than Chaos Rising with significantly more cards at every hit tier.
Hyper Rare — #221–226
6 cards split across two sub-tiers: true Hyper Rares (#221–222) and gold-art special cards (#223–226). Estimated combined pull rate approximately 1 in 146 packs (~0.68%). The gold-art items (#223–226) are trainers/energy with special foil treatment rather than ex Pokémon cards, so prices are lower than typical HRs.
| # | Card | Price (USD) | Price (SGD est.) |
|---|---|---|---|
| 221 | Teal Mask Ogerpon ex (HR) | $10.48 | ~$13 |
| 222 | Bloodmoon Ursaluna ex (HR) | $9.00 | ~$12 |
| 223 | Buddy-Buddy Poffin (gold) | $13.15 | ~$17 |
| 224 | Enhanced Hammer (gold) | $6.00 | ~$8 |
| 225 | Rescue Board (gold) | $3.69 | ~$5 |
| 226 | Luminous Energy (gold) | $6.50 | ~$8 |
Pool average: $8.14 USD. These are the rarest cards in the set but also the least valuable at that rarity — the gold trainer format means prices are suppressed vs. Pokémon ex HRs in other sets.
Special Illustration Rare (SIR ★★) — #210–220
11 cards. The main chase tier. Estimated pull rate approximately 1 in 86 packs (~1.16%). Price range: $11.71–$347.83. Greninja ex dominates at nearly 5× the next most valuable SIR.
| # | Card | Price (USD) | Price (SGD est.) |
|---|---|---|---|
| 214 | Greninja ex | $347.83 | ~$445 |
| 220 | Perrin | $159.25 | ~$204 |
| 217 | Carmine | $69.08 | ~$88 |
| 218 | Kieran | $28.84 | ~$37 |
| 219 | Lana's Aid | $30.35 | ~$39 |
| 216 | Bloodmoon Ursaluna ex | $39.99 | ~$51 |
| 211 | Teal Mask Ogerpon ex | $22.78 | ~$29 |
| 210 | Sinistcha ex | $22.14 | ~$28 |
| 213 | Wellspring Mask Ogerpon ex | $18.12 | ~$23 |
| 215 | Cornerstone Mask Ogerpon ex | $15.68 | ~$20 |
| 212 | Hearthflame Mask Ogerpon ex | $11.71 | ~$15 |
Pool average: $69.62 USD. Pool median: $28.84 USD. The mean is heavily skewed by Greninja ex SIR. If you pull an SIR, you are statistically most likely to get something worth $15–$30, not $70.
Illustration Rare (IR ★) — #168–188
21 cards. Expected roughly once every 13 packs (~7.69%). The standouts are Eevee (#188) and Chansey (#187) — both unusually expensive IRs driven by collector demand. The pool has a wide spread with a long tail of lower-value cards.
| # | Card | Price (USD) | Notes |
|---|---|---|---|
| 188 | Eevee | $83.04 | Chase IR — collector staple |
| 187 | Chansey | $56.11 | Chase IR — retro fan favourite |
| 181 | Hisuian Growlithe | $26.93 | |
| 186 | Tatsugiri | $20.73 | |
| 168 | Pinsir | $13.56 | |
| 173 | Infernape | $13.29 | |
| 170 | Dipplin | $10.62 | |
| 175 | Phione | $10.18 | |
| 174 | Froslass | $9.00 | |
| 185 | Applin | $9.37 | |
| 178 | Wattrel | $4.50 | |
| 179 | Chimecho | $4.20 | |
| 171 | Poltchageist | $4.72 | |
| 176 | Cramorant | $4.09 | |
| 177 | Heliolisk | $4.04 | |
| 180 | Enamorus | $6.65 | |
| 183 | Timburr | $6.40 | |
| 184 | Lairon | $5.14 | |
| 169 | Sunflora | $6.73 | |
| 172 | Torkoal | $5.49 | |
| 182 | Probopass | $3.98 |
Pool average: $14.70 USD. Pool median: $6.73 USD. The Eevee and Chansey IRs skew the mean significantly — the median pull is worth around $6.73, which is decent but below pack cost at market prices.
ACE SPEC Rare — #162–167
5 cards with the ACE SPEC rarity (one per deck limit mechanic). Estimated pull rate approximately 1 in 20 packs (5%). The gameplay meta relevance of each card drives price variation — Unfair Stamp and Secret Box are currently the most valued for competitive play.
| # | Card | Price (USD) | Notes |
|---|---|---|---|
| 165 | Unfair Stamp | $12.01 | Competitively relevant |
| 163 | Secret Box | $8.25 | Niche competitive use |
| 167 | Legacy Energy | $2.35 | |
| 162 | Scoop Up Cyclone | $1.45 | |
| 164 | Survival Brace | $0.64 |
Pool average: $4.94 USD. Most ACE SPEC pulls are low-value — only Unfair Stamp and Secret Box provide meaningful returns. Hitting Survival Brace or Scoop Up Cyclone is effectively a loss at any price point.
Ultra Rare (★★) — #189–209
21 cards. Full-art ex cards and trainer cards. Expected roughly once per 15 packs (~6.67%). Greninja ex (#198) and Dragapult ex (#200) are the clear standouts; most other URs cluster between $1.32–$5.97.
| # | Card | Price (USD) |
|---|---|---|
| 198 | Greninja ex | $15.82 |
| 200 | Dragapult ex | $14.99 |
| 190 | Teal Mask Ogerpon ex | $5.97 |
| 209 | Perrin | $5.24 |
| 204 | Carmine | $5.09 |
| 207 | Lana's Aid | $4.74 |
| 201 | Blissey ex | $4.43 |
| 199 | Cornerstone Mask Ogerpon ex | $4.34 |
| 194 | Wellspring Mask Ogerpon ex | $3.75 |
| 206 | Kieran | $3.60 |
| 202 | Bloodmoon Ursaluna ex | $2.99 |
| 197 | Scream Tail ex | $2.68 |
| 195 | Luxray ex | $2.62 |
| 196 | Iron Thorns ex | $2.40 |
| 192 | Hearthflame Mask Ogerpon ex | $2.25 |
| 189 | Sinistcha ex | $2.00 |
| 208 | Lucian | $1.99 |
| 193 | Palafin ex | $1.97 |
| 191 | Magcargo ex | $1.86 |
| 205 | Hassel | $1.68 |
| 203 | Caretaker | $1.32 |
Pool average: $4.37 USD. The large pool (21 cards) means most UR pulls are bulk-tier. Only the top two cards (Greninja ex, Dragapult ex) return meaningful value.
Double Rare (★★ ex) — #023–141
14 ex cards spread through the base set. Expected roughly once every 5 packs (20%). Greninja ex (#106) leads at $3.24; most others are $0.97–$2.99. These are consistent filler hits with limited individual upside.
| # | Card | Price (USD) |
|---|---|---|
| 106 | Greninja ex | $3.24 |
| 025 | Teal Mask Ogerpon ex | $2.99 |
| 141 | Bloodmoon Ursaluna ex | $2.24 |
| 130 | Dragapult ex | $1.99 |
| 029 | Magcargo ex | $1.49 |
| 023 | Sinistcha ex | $1.42 |
| 112 | Cornerstone Mask Ogerpon ex | $1.37 |
| 064 | Wellspring Mask Ogerpon ex | $1.29 |
| 061 | Palafin ex | $1.26 |
| 040 | Hearthflame Mask Ogerpon ex | $1.06 |
| 134 | Blissey ex | $1.00 |
| 068 | Luxray ex | $0.99 |
| 094 | Scream Tail ex | $0.99 |
| 077 | Iron Thorns ex | $0.97 |
Pool average: $1.59 USD. These are the bread-and-butter hits — present in roughly 1 of every 5 packs but individually low-value.
Chase Cards: Top 10 by Value
The top 10 is split between SIRs (7 cards) and IRs (3 cards). Eevee and Chansey IRs are unusually valuable for the IR tier — they rival or exceed many SIRs in other sets. Greninja ex SIR at $348 represents roughly 45% of the total SIR pool value alone, making the distribution heavily skewed.
Expected Value Per Pack
Using current PriceCharting market prices weighted by community-sourced pull rates (8,000+ packs opened), here is where the expected value of each Twilight Masquerade pack comes from:
| Component | Pull Rate | Pool Avg (USD) | EV Contribution |
|---|---|---|---|
| Bulk (commons + uncommons) | 100% | $0.80 | $0.80 |
| Reverse Holo slot | 100% | $1.60 | $1.60 |
| Standard Rare (★) | 58.8% | $0.73 | $0.43 |
| Double Rare (★★ ex) | 20.0% | $1.59 | $0.32 |
| ACE SPEC Rare | 5.0% | $4.94 | $0.25 |
| Illustration Rare (★ IR) | 7.69% | $14.70 | $1.13 |
| Ultra Rare (★★ #189–209) | 6.67% | $4.37 | $0.29 |
| SIR (★★ #210–220) | 1.16% | $69.62 | $0.81 |
| Hyper Rare (#221–226) | 0.68% | $8.14 | $0.06 |
Key observations from this table:
- IRs are the single largest EV driver at $1.13/pack — more than SIRs ($0.81). The Eevee and Chansey IRs inflate the IR pool average significantly above most SV-era sets.
- SIR EV is concentrated in Greninja ex — at $348 with 11 SIRs in the pool, the expected value from just Greninja ex SIR is roughly 0.011628 × (348/11) ≈ $0.37 per pack. Everything else in the SIR pool contributes ~$0.44.
- Hyper Rares contribute almost nothing ($0.06/pack) — the gold trainer cards at $3.69–$13.15 with only 0.68% pull rate barely move the needle.
- ACE SPEC at $0.25 EV — despite the 5% pull rate, most ACE SPEC cards are low-value, limiting the contribution to $0.25 per pack.
Monte Carlo: Win vs Loss Odds
The EV table above gives averages. What actually happens to individual openers is driven by variance. The charts below show results from 100,000 simulated openings, drawing from the actual card pool prices and pull rates — not averages.
Each bar = $50 profit/loss range. ··· represents an empty gap in outcomes. 100,000 simulated openings. Prices from PriceCharting (USD), May 2026.
Win / Loss summary across all formats
| Scenario | Cost | Win % | Loss % | Median P/L | P5 (bad luck) | P95 (good luck) | Avg Return |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Pack — retail (~$5.08) | $5.08 | 17.8% | 82.2% | −$2 | −$2 | +$9 | 1.12× |
| Bundle — retail (~$30.48) | $30.48 | 32.0% | 68.0% | −$5 | −$12 | +$49 | 1.12× |
| Box — retail (~$182.88) | $182.88 | 45.6% | 54.4% | −$5 | −$47 | +$179 | 1.12× |
| Pack — market (~$7.62) | $7.62 | 10.0% | 90.0% | −$4 | −$5 | +$6 | 0.74× |
| Bundle — market (~$48.25) | $48.25 | 10.1% | 89.9% | −$23 | −$30 | +$31 | 0.70× |
| Box — market (~$339.99) | $339.99 | 5.8% | 94.2% | −$163 | −$205 | +$22 | 0.60× |
P5 = the outcome in the worst 5% of openings. P95 = the outcome in the best 5%. Win = profit > $0. Simulation: 100,000 runs, seed 42.
What these numbers mean in practice:
- The market box (94.2% loss rate, 0.60× return) is among the worst EV-to-cost ratios in recent SV-era sets. Even the P95 outcome at market box price is only +$22 — the upside ceiling is suppressed relative to the cost.
- At retail, the box is a near coin-flip on value (45.6% win) — acceptable if the experience matters to you. At retail, the expected return is 1.12× but the median is still a small loss (−$5).
- The wide gap between P5 and P95 for box retail (−$47 to +$179) reflects the high-variance nature of SIR pulls — missing all SIRs and the top IRs leads to significant losses.
- Individual packs at market lose money 90% of the time, and even at P95 (top 5%) you only gain $6 on a $7.62 pack. The market premium leaves almost no room for positive outcomes.
The Break-Even Price
If the expected value per pack is $5.69 USD, the break-even prices for each product format are:
Singapore context: Retail packs in Singapore cost approximately SGD $6.50 each (USD ~$5.08), below the break-even pack price of $5.69 USD. Retail boxes (~SGD $234 / USD ~$182.88) are comfortably below the break-even box of $204.67. At retail, all three formats are positive expected value. The issue is that Twilight Masquerade retail stock has largely sold through — most purchasing now happens at market rates significantly above break-even.
Sensitivity to SIR price changes
| SIR Price Scenario | EV per Pack | Break-even Bundle (USD) | Break-even Box (USD) |
|---|---|---|---|
| Current prices (May 2026) | $5.69 | ~$34.11 | ~$204.67 |
| SIRs −25% | ~$5.49 | ~$32.93 | ~$197.60 |
| SIRs −50% | ~$5.28 | ~$31.70 | ~$190.21 |
| SIRs −75% | ~$5.09 | ~$30.53 | ~$183.18 |
Because SIR contributes only 14% of total EV (vs 44% in Ascended Heroes), even a 75% SIR price crash drops EV only to ~$5.09 per pack. The break-even box would drop to ~$183 — and market boxes at ~$340 would still be deeply negative EV. This confirms that the unfavourable EV at market is a pricing problem, not a card-value problem.
What You Should Actually Do
If you want a specific card
Buy the single. Use the tcgTalk price comparison to find the best Singapore price across Carousell, Facebook Marketplace, and SNKRDUNK. For the Greninja ex SIR at $348, pulling it from packs has an expected cost of approximately 86 packs × 11 SIRs = 946 packs — over $7,200 at market pack prices. No sane pack-opening strategy targets a specific SIR in this set.
If you want to open packs for the experience
Retail price is the only sensible entry point. At SGD ~$6.50 per pack, the 1.12× expected return means you are slightly ahead on average. A retail box (SGD ~$234) offers the best win rate at retail: 45.6% chance of profit, with P95 upside of +$179. Bundles at retail (32% win, P95 +$49) are acceptable for smaller sessions. At market prices, all formats are losing propositions in the long run.
Avoid paying market bundle (~$48) or market box (~$340) prices for opening. The premium is so large relative to break-even that you would need a Greninja ex SIR or multiple top IRs to recover — and the odds of that happening are low (SIR hits in 1.16% of packs, ~1 in 86).
If you are buying sealed for investment
Twilight Masquerade is one of the more expensive SV-era sets for sealed at market — the box at ~$340 vs a break-even of ~$205 means you are paying a 66% premium over card value. Sealed appreciation depends on whether current prices hold or grow. Given that the set is well past peak hype (released May 2024) and prices are already elevated, sealed investment is high-risk. If you are considering sealed TM for investment, entry at retail would have been the time — that window has largely closed in Singapore.
If you already have cards to sell
Greninja ex SIR (#214) at $348 and Perrin SIR (#220) at $159 are the set's highest-value singles. The Eevee IR (#188) at $83 and Chansey IR (#187) at $56 have held value unusually well compared to typical IRs — these may continue to be durable given their collector appeal beyond the competitive meta. If you pulled top cards and are considering selling, prices for older SV-era SIRs tend to be relatively stable at this stage, but always check current market conditions before committing.
Frequently Asked Questions
Is it worth opening Twilight Masquerade packs?
At Singapore retail (~SGD $6.50/pack), yes — EV is ~$7.28 SGD per pack (1.12× return). At market prices ($7.62/pack USD, $48.25 bundle, $339.99 box), no — all formats are negative EV. The box at market is especially poor at 0.60× return and 94.2% loss rate. Retail is the only price point that works mathematically.
What is the most expensive Twilight Masquerade card?
Greninja ex SIR (#214) at approximately USD $347.83 (~SGD $445). Perrin SIR (#220) at USD $159.25 (~SGD $204) is second. Eevee IR (#188) at USD $83.04 is the most valuable IR — unusual for a card at that rarity tier.
How many SIRs are in Twilight Masquerade?
11 Special Illustration Rares (#210–220) plus 6 Hyper Rare cards (#221–226), for 17 premium rarity cards in total. This is larger than Chaos Rising (7 premium cards) but not as sprawling as some sets. The SIR pool is notable for including both Pokémon ex and trainer cards.
What are the ACE SPEC cards in Twilight Masquerade?
Five ACE SPEC rares: Scoop Up Cyclone (#162, $1.45), Secret Box (#163, $8.25), Survival Brace (#164, $0.64), Unfair Stamp (#165, $12.01), and Legacy Energy (#167, $2.35). ACE SPEC cards appear roughly once in every 20 packs. Unfair Stamp and Secret Box are the most sought after for competitive decks.
How does Twilight Masquerade compare to other SV sets for pack opening?
Twilight Masquerade has a lower EV per pack ($5.69) than Chaos Rising ($7.05) or Ascended Heroes ($11.10), but market prices are significantly higher — making it among the least value-efficient sets to open at market. At retail, all SV-era sets are reasonably comparable. The Eevee and Chansey IRs are highlights unique to this set — no other SV-era set has IRs at this price point.
Is the Twilight Masquerade box a good investment?
At market price (~$340 USD), the box is 1.66× the break-even value ($205 USD). For investment purposes, you would need sealed prices to appreciate from their already elevated level. This is a difficult bet on a set that is over a year old with a large print run. Retail sealed would have been the entry point — that opportunity has passed for most buyers.
Disclaimer: All card prices are from PriceCharting market data (USD) as of May 2026 and are indicative of current secondary market rates — they will change. SGD equivalents use an approximate 1.28 exchange rate (May 2026). Pull rates are community estimates from aggregate mass-opening data (8,000+ packs); The Pokemon Company does not publish official pull rates. Monte Carlo results use 100,000 simulated openings, seed 42. This is not financial advice. Verify current prices on tcgTalk or Carousell before making any buying or selling decisions.