Harga kartu diambil dari data pasar PriceCharting (USD). Nilai IDR menggunakan kurs langsung. Pull rate berdasarkan data pembukaan komuniti seri Mega Evolution.
Jawaban Singkat
Mega Evolution (ME01) adalah set di mana perbedaan harga retail dan pasar sangat menentukan. Di harga retail (~Rp Rp 91,801/pack), EV adalah 1.10× — sedikit positif. Di harga pasar, semua format adalah −EV secara signifikan.
| Produk | Harga Retail (IDR) | Harga Pasar (IDR) | Nilai Kartu EV | Return Retail | Kesimpulan |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Booster Pack | Rp Rp 91,801 | Rp Rp 206,915 | Rp Rp 101,560 | 1.10× | +EV retail. −EV pasar. |
| Booster Bundle (6 pack) | Rp Rp 550,809 | Rp Rp 1.0jt | Rp Rp 609,359 | 1.10× | +EV retail. −EV pasar. |
| Booster Box (36 pack) | Rp Rp 3.3jt | Rp Rp 5.6jt | Rp Rp 3.7jt | 1.10× | +EV retail. −EV pasar. |
Harga Kartu per Rarity
Mega Hyper Rare (◇) — #187–188
2 kartu. ~1 in 1,260 packs. Full-art emas untuk dua Mega ex utama set ini.
| # | Kartu | Harga (USD) | Harga (IDR) |
|---|---|---|---|
| 188 | Mega Lucario ex | $261.37 | Rp Rp 4.7jt |
| 187 | Mega Gardevoir ex | $211.58 | Rp Rp 3.8jt |
Rata-rata pool: Rp Rp 4.3jt.
Special Illustration Rares (★★ SIR) — #177–186
10 kartu. ~1 in 101 packs. Rentang harga Rp Rp 349,315–Rp Rp 4.0jt.
| # | Kartu | Harga (USD) | Harga (IDR) |
|---|---|---|---|
| 179 | Mega Lucario ex | $213.57 | Rp Rp 3.9jt |
| 178 | Mega Gardevoir ex | $186.26 | Rp Rp 3.4jt |
| 177 | Mega Venusaur ex | $153.14 | Rp Rp 2.8jt |
| 181 | Mega Latias ex | $85.00 | Rp Rp 1.5jt |
| 184 | Lillie's Determination | $70.35 | Rp Rp 1.3jt |
| 180 | Mega Absol ex | $65.78 | Rp Rp 1.2jt |
| 182 | Mega Kangaskhan ex | $59.76 | Rp Rp 1.1jt |
| 183 | Acerola's Mischief | $31.73 | Rp Rp 573,398 |
| 186 | Wally's Compassion | $22.01 | Rp Rp 397,746 |
| 185 | Lt. Surge's Bargain | $17.72 | Rp Rp 320,221 |
Rata-rata pool: Rp Rp 1.6jt. Median: Rp Rp 1.2jt.
Illustration Rares (★ IR) — #133–154
22 kartu. ~1 in 9 packs. Bulbasaur (#133) dan Ivysaur (#134) adalah IR incaran utama.
| # | Kartu | Harga (USD) | Harga (IDR) | Catatan |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 133 | Bulbasaur | $24.00 | Rp Rp 433,708 | Chase IR |
| 134 | Ivysaur | $21.25 | Rp Rp 384,012 | |
| 146 | Marshadow | $16.00 | Rp Rp 289,138 | |
| 138 | Vulpix | $16.00 | Rp Rp 289,138 | |
| 150 | Steelix | $7.78 | Rp Rp 140,594 | |
| 136 | Shuckle | $7.31 | Rp Rp 132,100 | |
| 135 | Exeggutor | $6.07 | Rp Rp 109,692 | |
| 154 | Stufful | $5.50 | Rp Rp 99,391 | |
| 139 | Litleo | $4.64 | Rp Rp 83,850 | |
| 137 | Ninjask | $4.13 | Rp Rp 74,634 | |
| 151 | Spearow | $4.00 | Rp Rp 72,285 | |
| 153 | Gumshoos | $4.00 | Rp Rp 72,285 | |
| 143 | Helioptile | $3.63 | Rp Rp 65,598 | |
| 148 | Spiritomb | $3.13 | Rp Rp 56,563 | |
| 152 | Delibird | $3.07 | Rp Rp 55,478 | |
| 144 | Shedinja | $3.01 | Rp Rp 54,394 | |
| 145 | Houndstone | $2.99 | Rp Rp 54,033 | |
| 142 | Inteleon | $2.70 | Rp Rp 48,792 | |
| 140 | Snover | $2.50 | Rp Rp 45,178 | |
| 149 | Shroodle | $2.42 | Rp Rp 43,732 | |
| 141 | Clawitzer | $2.17 | Rp Rp 39,214 | |
| 147 | Garganacl | $1.84 | Rp Rp 33,251 |
Rata-rata pool: Rp Rp 121,619.
Ultra Rares (★★ UR) — #155–176
22 kartu. ~1 in 12 packs. Rata-rata pool: Rp Rp 98,668.
| # | Kartu | Harga (USD) | Harga (IDR) |
|---|---|---|---|
| 169 | Lillie's Determination | $19.76 | Rp Rp 357,086 |
| 160 | Mega Lucario ex | $14.85 | Rp Rp 268,357 |
| 155 | Mega Venusaur ex | $13.96 | Rp Rp 252,273 |
| 164 | Mega Kangaskhan ex | $5.94 | Rp Rp 107,343 |
| 159 | Mega Gardevoir ex | $5.79 | Rp Rp 104,632 |
| 167 | Buddy-Buddy Poffin | $5.76 | Rp Rp 104,090 |
| 163 | Mega Latias ex | $5.72 | Rp Rp 103,367 |
| 161 | Mega Absol ex | $5.59 | Rp Rp 101,018 |
| 173 | Night Stretcher | $4.39 | Rp Rp 79,332 |
| 175 | Rare Candy | $4.03 | Rp Rp 72,827 |
| 176 | Wally's Compassion | $3.91 | Rp Rp 70,658 |
| 165 | Acerola's Mischief | $3.85 | Rp Rp 69,574 |
| 158 | Mega Manectric ex | $3.31 | Rp Rp 59,816 |
| 168 | Fighting Gong | $3.06 | Rp Rp 55,298 |
| 166 | Air Balloon | $2.97 | Rp Rp 53,671 |
| 174 | Premium Power Pro | $2.88 | Rp Rp 52,045 |
| 162 | Mega Mawile ex | $2.85 | Rp Rp 51,503 |
| 156 | Mega Camerupt ex | $2.82 | Rp Rp 50,961 |
| 157 | Mega Abomasnow ex | $2.60 | Rp Rp 46,985 |
| 172 | Mystery Garden | $2.19 | Rp Rp 39,576 |
| 170 | Lt. Surge's Bargain | $2.00 | Rp Rp 36,142 |
| 171 | Mega Signal | $1.96 | Rp Rp 35,419 |
Double Rares (★★ ex) — #3, 22, 36, 50, 60, 77, 86, 94, 100, 104
10 kartu Mega ex. ~1 in 5 packs. Rata-rata pool: Rp Rp 26,745.
Kartu Incaran: Top 10 Berdasarkan Nilai
Expected Value per Pack
| Komponen | Pull Rate | Rata-rata Pool (USD) | Kontribusi EV |
|---|---|---|---|
| Bulk (commons + uncommons) | 100% | $0.80 | $0.80 |
| Reverse Holo slot | 100% | $1.60 | $1.60 |
| Standard Rare (★) | 59.5% | $1.07 | $0.64 |
| Double Rare (★★ Mega ex) | 20.0% | $1.48 | $0.30 |
| Illustration Rare (★ IR) | 11.1% | $6.73 | $0.75 |
| Ultra Rare (#155–176) | 8.3% | $5.46 | $0.46 |
| SIR (#177–186) | 0.99% | $90.53 | $0.90 |
| Mega Hyper Rare (#187–188) | 0.079% | $236.48 | $0.19 |
Monte Carlo: Yang Sebenarnya Terjadi
Grafik di bawah menunjukkan hasil dari 100,000 simulasi pembukaan. Harga simulasi dalam USD.
Each bar = $50 profit/loss range. Market box price ($308) is far above break-even ($202). 100,000 simulated openings. Prices from PriceCharting (USD), June 2026.
Ringkasan Menang / Kalah semua format
| Skenario | Biaya (USD) | Menang % | Kalah % | Median P/L | P5 | P95 | Avg Return |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Pack — retail (~$5.08) | $5.08 | 17% | 83% | −$2 | −$2 | +$5 | 1.11× |
| Bundle — retail (~$30.48) | $30.48 | 25.9% | 74.1% | −$6 | −$10 | +$31 | 1.11× |
| Box — retail (~$182.88) | $182.88 | 39.8% | 60.2% | −$10 | −$43 | +$197 | 1.11× |
| Pack — market (~$11.45) | $11.45 | 4.2% | 95.8% | −$8 | −$8 | −$2 | 0.50× |
| Bundle — market (~$56.49) | $56.49 | 5.7% | 94.3% | −$32 | −$36 | +$7 | 0.60× |
| Box — market (~$307.98) | $307.98 | 12.1% | 87.9% | −$135 | −$168 | +$73 | 0.66× |
Harga Break-Even
Yang Sebaiknya Kamu Lakukan
Jika kamu menginginkan kartu tertentu
Beli single. Gunakan perbandingan harga tcgTalk. Untuk Mega Lucario ex MHR seharga ~Rp Rp 4.6jt, membuka pack tidak realistis — perkiraan biaya sekitar 2.520 pack.
Jika kamu ingin membuka pack
Buka hanya di harga retail. Box retail (win rate 38.6%, return 1.10×) adalah format terbaik. Di harga pasar, tidak ada format yang layak dibuka untuk nilai.
Jika kamu membeli sealed untuk investasi
ME01 adalah set pertama seri Mega Evolution — Mega Lucario dan Mega Gardevoir adalah karakter paling ikonik dalam franchise ini. Harga pasar jauh di atas EV matematis. Box pasar di Rp Rp 5.6jt adalah Rp Rp 1.9jt di atas break-even.
Beli Mega Evolution di TCGPlayer
Pertanyaan Umum
Apakah worth it membuka Mega Evolution di Indonesia?
Di harga retail (+EV, 1.10×), ya. Di harga pasar (−EV, 0.71× untuk box), tidak. Box pasar di Rp Rp 5.6jt punya median kerugian −$112.
Kartu Mega Evolution apa yang paling mahal?
Mega Lucario ex MHR (#188) sekitar Rp Rp 4.6jt. Mega Lucario ex SIR (#179) sekitar Rp Rp 4.0jt.
Berapa pull rate SIR dan MHR Mega Evolution?
SIR ~0.99% (1 dalam ~101 pack), MHR ~0.079% (1 dalam ~1.260 pack). Ada 2 MHR di set ini (berbeda dengan Chaos Rising yang hanya 1).
Disclaimer: Semua harga kartu dari data pasar PriceCharting (USD) per Mei 2026. Nilai IDR menggunakan kurs langsung. Pull rate adalah estimasi komuniti. Monte Carlo menggunakan 100.000 simulasi. Ini bukan saran keuangan.