Paldean Fates was released in January 2024 and is no longer in print. All sealed product sells at secondary market prices, which are significantly higher than original retail. The EV analysis below reflects current secondary market rates as of May 2026.
Card prices sourced from PriceCharting market data (USD). SGD equivalents use an approximate 1.28 exchange rate. Prices reflect current secondary market rates as of May 2026 and will change over time.
The Short Answer
Paldean Fates is one of the most extreme examples of secondary market premium in the modern Pokemon TCG. The EV per pack at current market prices is $13.86 USD — but the market pack price is $21.85 USD, a 58% markup over break-even. At retail in early 2024, this set was exceptional value. Today, opening is straightforwardly negative EV at every product format.
| Product | Retail Price (2024) | Market Price (May 2026) | Expected Card Value | Return at Retail | Return at Market |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Booster Pack | ~$5.50 USD | ~$21.85 USD | $13.86 | 2.52× | 0.64× |
| Booster Bundle (6 packs) | ~$33.00 USD | ~$155.50 USD | $83.16 | 2.52× | 0.53× |
| Box equivalent (36 packs) | ~$198.00 USD | ~$786.60 USD | $499.16 | 2.52× | 0.64× |
Note on the “box equivalent”: Paldean Fates has no official 36-pack booster box. The box equivalent cost is computed as 36 × single-pack market price ($21.85). The main sealed products are single packs and booster bundles (6 packs). Elite Trainer Boxes (containing 9 packs plus accessories) are also available but ETB pricing includes non-card items that inflate the cost beyond just pack value.
What Makes This Set Unique
Paldean Fates (SV04pt5) is a special subset released in January 2024. Unlike standard Scarlet & Violet sets, it is built entirely around shiny Pokemon — every card in the high-number range features a shiny version of a Pokemon from the Paldea region.
The pack structure differs from every other modern Pokemon set:
- Guaranteed Shiny Rare every pack — instead of a reverse holo slot, every pack contains at minimum one Shiny Rare (#092–211). There are 120 different SHRs featuring shiny Pokemon.
- No reverse holo slot — the reverse holo is replaced by the SHR. This means every opener gets a shiny Pokemon pull every single time.
- Hit slot on top — the standard hit slot can upgrade to: Shiny Ultra Rare (☆★), Illustration Rare, Ultra Rare trainer, Special Illustration Rare (SIR), or Hyper Rare.
- Massive card pool — 245 total cards spanning the full Paldea Pokédex in shiny form, plus high-rarity ex and character art cards.
| Rarity | Symbol | Card Range | Count | Slot |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Common / Uncommon / Rare | ● ◆ ★ | #001–091 | 79 | Standard |
| Double Rare (ex) | ★★ | #002–091 | 10 | Standard hit |
| Shiny Rare (SHR) | ☆ | #092–211 | 120 | Guaranteed shiny |
| Shiny Ultra Rare (SUR) | ☆★ | #212–223 | 12 | Shiny upgrade |
| Illustration Rare (IR) | ★ colored | #224–226 | 3 | Standard upgrade |
| Ultra Rare trainers | ★★ | #227–231 | 5 | Standard upgrade |
| Special Illustration Rare (SIR) | ★★ SIR | #232–239 | 8 | Shiny upgrade |
| Hyper Rare (HR) | ◇★ | #240–245 | 6 | Shiny upgrade |
Card Prices by Rarity
Paldean Fates has eight distinct rarity tiers. The SIR tier is the main value driver, heavily skewed by Mew ex at $865.70. The Shiny Rare pool (120 cards) contributes the most consistent expected value due to the guaranteed-per-pack pull.
Special Illustration Rare (★★ SIR) — #232–239
8 cards. Full-art character illustrations. Estimated pull rate approximately 1 in 58 packs (~1.72%). Price range: $6–$866. Mew ex is the dominant chase card in the entire set.
| # | Card | Price (USD) | Price (SGD est.) |
|---|---|---|---|
| 232 | Mew ex | $865.70 | ~$1,108 |
| 234 | Charizard ex | $310.97 | ~$398 |
| 233 | Gardevoir ex | $168.55 | ~$216 |
| 236 | Clive | $28.99 | ~$37 |
| 237 | Iono | $27.94 | ~$36 |
| 239 | Penny | $20.00 | ~$26 |
| 235 | Arven | $10.87 | ~$14 |
| 238 | Nemona | $6.38 | ~$8 |
Pool average: $179.93 USD. Pool median: $28.47 USD. The mean is massively skewed by Mew ex — if you pull an SIR, you are most likely to receive a $6–$29 card, not the $180 average. Mew ex (#232) is widely known in the community as “Bubble Mew” due to its artwork depicting Mew inside a translucent bubble, and it is one of the most recognisable and sought-after cards in the modern Pokemon TCG. It accounts for over 70% of the SIR pool's mean value.
Hyper Rare (◇★) — #240–245
6 cards. Gold-treatment Paradox Beast ex cards. Estimated pull rate approximately 1 in 62 packs (~1.61%). Tightly priced — all six fall within a $6–$13 range.
| # | Card | Price (USD) | Price (SGD est.) |
|---|---|---|---|
| 245 | Koraidon ex | $12.87 | ~$16 |
| 243 | Miraidon ex | $11.65 | ~$15 |
| 241 | Chi-Yu ex | $10.00 | ~$13 |
| 242 | Chien-Pao ex | $9.14 | ~$12 |
| 240 | Wo-Chien ex | $7.11 | ~$9 |
| 244 | Ting-Lu ex | $6.59 | ~$8 |
Pool average: $9.56 USD. Pool median: $9.57 USD. Very consistent — Hyper Rares in this set don't have a standout chase card, making the pool unusually uniform.
Shiny Rare (☆) — #092–211 (Guaranteed per pack)
120 cards. Every pack contains at least one SHR. The most popular shiny Pokemon command significant premiums — Pikachu, Snorlax, Ditto, Mimikyu, and Charmander are the standout chase SHRs.
| # | Card | Price (USD) | Notes |
|---|---|---|---|
| 131 | Pikachu | $80.66 | Top chase SHR — perennial fan favourite |
| 202 | Snorlax | $63.28 | |
| 160 | Mimikyu | $51.89 | |
| 201 | Ditto | $46.83 | |
| 109 | Charmander | $45.01 | |
| 210 | Maushold | $33.45 | |
| 209 | Tandemaus | $29.70 | |
| 174 | Lucario | $29.27 | |
| 132 | Raichu | $23.63 | |
| 198 | Jigglypuff | $23.21 | |
| 112 | Entei | $22.72 |
Pool average: $8.32 USD across 120 cards. Pool median: $4.10 USD. The top 10 SHRs are worth $22–$81; the remaining 110 cards average under $4. Most SHR pulls will be $1–$6 filler shiny Pokemon.
Shiny Ultra Rare (☆★) — #212–223
12 cards. Shiny ex Pokemon with special foil treatment. Estimated pull rate approximately 1 in 13 packs (~7.69%). Mew ex stands far above the rest of this pool.
| # | Card | Price (USD) |
|---|---|---|
| 216 | Mew ex | $37.10 |
| 217 | Gardevoir ex | $7.99 |
| 215 | Alakazam ex | $6.88 |
| 221 | Pidgeot ex | $3.99 |
| 222 | Wigglytuff ex | $3.03 |
| 219 | Paldean Clodsire ex | $2.95 |
| 220 | Noivern ex | $2.60 |
| 213 | Toedscruel ex | $2.47 |
| 223 | Squawkabilly ex | $1.84 |
| 214 | Espathra ex | $1.70 |
| 218 | Glimmora ex | $1.38 |
| 212 | Forretress ex | $1.31 |
Pool average: $6.10 USD. Pool median: $2.78 USD. Mew ex SUR (#216) at $37.10 is a significant premium over the rest — pulling any other SUR yields $1.31–$7.99.
Illustration Rare (★ IR) — #224–226
3 cards. Estimated pull rate approximately 1 in 14 packs (~7.14%). Small pool with tight pricing.
| # | Card | Price (USD) |
|---|---|---|
| 226 | Pawmi | $3.25 |
| 224 | Wugtrio | $3.04 |
| 225 | Palafin | $2.59 |
Pool average: $2.96 USD. These are the lowest-value premium tier in the set — pulling an IR is barely better than a strong Double Rare.
Ultra Rare trainers (★★) — #227–231
5 full-art trainer cards. Estimated pull rate approximately 1 in 15 packs (~6.67%).
| # | Card | Price (USD) |
|---|---|---|
| 229 | Nemona | $1.82 |
| 230 | Paldean Student | $1.74 |
| 228 | Judge | $1.73 |
| 231 | Paldean Student | $1.60 |
| 227 | Clive | $1.29 |
Pool average: $1.64 USD. These are the least valuable premium pull in the set. A UR trainer hit in Paldean Fates is a disappointing outcome.
Double Rare (★★ ex) — #002, 005, 006, 029, 053, 054, 059, 066, 069, 075
10 ex cards in the standard set range. Expected roughly once every 3 packs (~34%). Charizard ex stands far above the rest.
| # | Card | Price (USD) |
|---|---|---|
| 054 | Charizard ex | $5.01 |
| 029 | Gardevoir ex | $1.28 |
| 053 | Great Tusk ex | $1.21 |
| 059 | Paldean Clodsire ex | $1.21 |
| 006 | Espathra ex | $1.10 |
| 002 | Forretress ex | $0.99 |
| 005 | Toedscruel ex | $0.99 |
| 069 | Noivern ex | $0.99 |
| 066 | Iron Treads ex | $0.83 |
| 075 | Squawkabilly ex | $0.81 |
Pool average: $1.44 USD. The DR pool is notably weak — only Charizard ex at $5.01 is meaningful. Most DRs are under $1.30.
Chase Cards: Top 10 by Value
Mew ex “Bubble Mew” dominates the Paldean Fates value landscape at every tier — there is an SIR (#232) at $866, a Shiny Ultra Rare (#216) at $37, and the Double Rare base version also commanding a premium. Seven of the top 10 most valuable cards are Shiny Rares from the guaranteed SHR slot — meaning the guaranteed pull mechanic produces the set's 4th through 10th most valuable cards.
Expected Value Per Pack
Using current PriceCharting market prices weighted by pull rates from Paldean Fates community opening data (1,500 packs sampled), here is where the expected value of each pack comes from:
| Component | Pull Rate | Pool Avg (USD) | EV Contribution | % of Total EV |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Bulk (commons + uncommons) | 100% | $0.80 | $0.80 | 5.8% |
| Shiny Rare slot (guaranteed) | 100% | $8.32 | $8.32 | 60.0% |
| Standard Rare (★) | 41.0% | $0.51 | $0.21 | 1.5% |
| Double Rare (★★ ex) | 34.2% | $1.44 | $0.49 | 3.5% |
| Illustration Rare (IR) | 7.14% | $2.96 | $0.21 | 1.5% |
| Ultra Rare trainers | 6.67% | $1.64 | $0.11 | 0.8% |
| Shiny Ultra Rare (SUR) | 7.69% | $6.10 | $0.47 | 3.4% |
| Hyper Rare (◇★) | 1.61% | $9.56 | $0.15 | 1.1% |
| Special Illustration Rare (SIR) | 1.72% | $179.93 | $3.10 | 22.4% |
Key observations from this table:
- The Shiny Rare slot contributes 60% of all pack EV. This is unique — no other Pokemon set has a guaranteed premium slot that provides this proportion of expected value. It is also the reason opening at retail was so profitable: you always got $8.32 in SHR value per pack, versus a retail cost of $5.50.
- SIR contributes $3.10 (22% of EV), almost entirely driven by Mew ex at $865.70. Without Mew ex, SIR EV per pack would drop to approximately $0.60.
- The SUR, HR, IR, and UR tiers together contribute only $0.94 per pack — these are low-value pulls relative to what you paid for the pack at market.
- Standard DR and Rare tiers contribute $0.70 combined — the base set cards in Paldean Fates are almost worthless, as they are outshone by the shiny versions.
Monte Carlo: Win vs Loss Odds
The EV table above gives averages. What actually happens to individual openers is driven by variance. The charts below show results from 100,000 simulated openings, drawing from the actual card pool prices and pull rates — not averages.
Each bar = $50 profit/loss range. ··· = empty gap. No official 36-pack box exists — cost is 36 × single-pack market price. 100,000 simulated openings. Prices from PriceCharting (USD), May 2026.
Win / Loss summary across all formats
| Scenario | Cost | Win % | Loss % | Median P/L | P5 (bad luck) | P95 (good luck) | Avg Return |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Pack — retail 2024 (~$5.50) | $5.50 | 63.0% | 37.0% | +$1 | −$2 | +$39 | 2.51× |
| Bundle — retail 2024 (~$33.00) | $33.00 | 95.2% | 4.8% | +$25 | +$0 | +$126 | 2.52× |
| Box equiv. — retail 2024 (~$198.00) | $198.00 | 100% | 0% | +$216 | +$92 | +$1,037 | 2.53× |
| Pack — market (~$21.85) | $21.85 | 11.2% | 88.8% | −$15 | −$18 | +$22 | 0.64× |
| Bundle — market (~$155.50) | $155.50 | 5.2% | 94.8% | −$98 | −$122 | +$4 | 0.53× |
| Box equiv. — market (~$786.60) | $786.60 | 9.1% | 90.9% | −$372 | −$497 | +$448 | 0.64× |
P5 = the outcome in the worst 5% of openings. P95 = the outcome in the best 5%. Win = profit > $0. Simulation: 100,000 runs, seed 42. Box equivalent = 36 × single-pack market price (no official box exists).
What these numbers mean in practice:
- At retail (2024), the bundle was 95.2% likely to profit, and the box equivalent won 100% of the time. This was one of the best-ever pack opening propositions in modern Pokemon TCG history at retail.
- At current market prices, the bundle P95 is only +$4 — meaning even in the top 5% of outcomes, you barely break even. The market premium has completely consumed the EV cushion.
- The market pack's 11.2% win rate means roughly 1 in 9 pack openers makes a profit. The other 8 lose an average of $15 on a $21.85 pack.
- The bimodal spikes in the bundle chart (visible at +$190–$250 and +$740–$820) represent Charizard ex SIR and Mew ex SIR hits respectively. These are the only scenarios where a 6-pack bundle opener significantly profits at market price.
The Break-Even Price
If the expected value per pack is $13.86 USD, the break-even prices for each product format are:
The market gap: The current market pack price ($21.85) is 58% above the break-even ($13.86). This is among the largest market-to-EV gaps of any current Pokemon set — a direct consequence of out-of-print scarcity and collector demand for the unique shiny mechanic.
Sensitivity to Mew ex SIR price changes
Mew ex SIR (#232) at $865.70 contributes a disproportionate share of SIR EV. Without it, the SIR pool EV collapses. Here is how EV per pack changes under different Mew ex price scenarios:
| Mew ex SIR Scenario | EV per Pack | Break-even Bundle (USD) | Break-even Box equiv. (USD) |
|---|---|---|---|
| Current prices (May 2026) | $13.86 | ~$83.16 | ~$499 |
| Mew ex SIR −25% (~$649) | ~$12.17 | ~$73.02 | ~$438 |
| Mew ex SIR −50% (~$433) | ~$10.49 | ~$62.94 | ~$378 |
| Mew ex SIR −75% (~$216) | ~$8.80 | ~$52.80 | ~$317 |
Even at a 75% Mew ex SIR correction, the break-even bundle ($53) is well below the current market bundle price ($155.50). The only scenario where opening becomes viable at market prices is if Mew ex SIR somehow tripled in price — which would require extraordinary circumstances.
Note that the SHR pool ($8.32 EV per pack, 60% of total EV) is not reflected in this table. If popular SHRs like Pikachu (#131) or Snorlax (#202) see price drops, the EV impact would be even larger than Mew ex corrections.
What You Should Actually Do
If you want a specific card
Buy the single. Use the tcgTalk price comparison to find the best current Singapore price for Mew ex SIR, Charizard ex SIR, Pikachu SHR, or whatever you are targeting. The expected cost to pull a specific SIR by opening packs is approximately 58 packs × $21.85 = $1,267 per attempt (and even then it is not guaranteed). For Mew ex SIR specifically, buying the $866 single is far cheaper than opening to find it.
If you want to open packs
At current market prices, opening is poor value in every format. The bundle has a 94.8% loss rate — you will almost certainly lose money. The only way to profit opening at market is to hit a Charizard ex SIR or Mew ex SIR. If you are opening for the experience of pulling shiny Pokemon (guaranteed every pack), that is a legitimate reason — but go in knowing you are paying $21.85 for entertainment, not investment.
If you can source packs significantly below the $21.85 market price — say, from a seller clearing old stock — re-run the math. At $14/pack you are around break-even; at $10/pack you are strongly positive EV. The break-even pack price of $13.86 is the key number.
If you are buying sealed for investment
Paldean Fates has appreciated significantly since its retail release in January 2024 — packs that sold at SGD ~$7 now fetch SGD ~$28. Further appreciation is possible but the set is already well-past peak hype. Sealed ETBs command premiums beyond just the packs (accessories and presentation box add perceived value). The risk profile at current prices is unfavorable for new buyers.
If you already have cards to sell
Mew ex SIR (#232) at $865.70 is the set's defining card. Prices for out-of-print SIRs can be volatile — check Carousell and SNKRDUNK for current Singapore sell prices. The Pikachu SHR (#131), Snorlax SHR (#202), and Mimikyu SHR (#160) are the most liquid SHRs with consistent buyer demand.
Frequently Asked Questions
Is it worth opening Paldean Fates packs?
At current secondary market prices (~$21.85/pack), no — EV is $13.86 per pack (0.64× return). At original 2024 retail (~SGD $7/pack, USD ~$5.50), opening was excellent value at 2.5× return. The set is now out of print and market premiums make opening a poor financial decision.
What is the most expensive Paldean Fates card?
Mew ex SIR (#232), widely known as “Bubble Mew”, at approximately USD $865.70 (~SGD $1,108). Charizard ex SIR (#234) at USD $310.97 (~SGD $398) and Gardevoir ex SIR (#233) at USD $168.55 (~SGD $216) are the other premium SIRs. Among Shiny Rares (which are guaranteed per pack), Pikachu SHR (#131) at $80.66 is the top chase card.
Does every Paldean Fates pack have a shiny Pokemon?
Yes — every pack contains at minimum one Shiny Rare (☆) from the 120-card SHR pool (#092–211). This replaces the reverse holo slot found in standard SV sets. The SHR can upgrade to a Shiny Ultra Rare (☆★) at ~7.7% rate, or further to SIR/HR through the premium hit slot mechanics.
How many SIRs are in Paldean Fates?
8 Special Illustration Rares (#232–239): Mew ex, Gardevoir ex, Charizard ex, Arven, Clive, Iono, Nemona, and Penny. There are also 6 Hyper Rares (#240–245) which are gold-treatment Paradox Beast ex cards. The pull rate for SIR is approximately 1 in 58 packs and for HR approximately 1 in 62 packs.
What is the cheapest SIR in Paldean Fates?
Nemona (#238) at USD $6.38 (~SGD $8) is the lowest-value SIR. Arven (#235) at USD $10.87 is close behind. The SIR pool has an extreme spread: from $6.38 (Nemona) to $865.70 (Mew ex).
How does Paldean Fates compare to 151 for pack opening?
Both are special subsets with high secondary market premiums. Paldean Fates has the unique guaranteed-SHR mechanic which provides consistent base value every pack, while 151 follows standard SV pull rate mechanics. At current prices, both are negative EV to open at market. Paldean Fates has a higher EV per pack ($13.86 vs 151's lower equivalent) driven by the SHR slot, but also higher market pack prices. Buy singles for both sets.
Disclaimer: All card prices are from PriceCharting market data (USD) as of May 2026 and are indicative of current secondary market rates — they will change. SGD equivalents use an approximate 1.28 exchange rate (May 2026). Pull rates are community estimates from Paldean Fates aggregate opening data (~1,500 packs); The Pokemon Company does not publish official pull rates. Retail prices cited are historical estimates from the set's initial 2024 release — Paldean Fates is no longer available at retail. Monte Carlo results use 100,000 simulated openings, seed 42. This is not financial advice. Verify current prices on tcgTalk or Carousell before making any buying or selling decisions.