Card prices are sourced from PriceCharting market data (USD). SGD equivalents use an approximate 1.28 exchange rate. Prices reflect current secondary market rates as of May 2026 — Paradox Rift released in November 2023 and is a mature set.
The Short Answer
Paradox Rift is negative expected value to open at any current price point. The market box (~USD $263) costs approximately 50% more than the mathematical break-even price (~USD $175). Even at Singapore retail (~SGD $6.50/pack ≈ USD $5.08), you are paying slightly above the per-pack break-even of $4.86, returning approximately 96 cents per dollar spent.
This is not a set you open for value. It is a set you open for the experience, for completing a collection, or to pull cards you want for gameplay.
| Product | Retail Price (USD) | Market Price (USD) | Expected Card Value | Return at Retail | Verdict |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Booster Pack | ~$5.08 | ~$10.70 | $4.86 | 0.96× | −EV at retail and market. |
| Booster Bundle (6 packs) | ~$30.48 | ~$42.99 | $29.16 | 0.96× | −EV at retail and market. |
| ~Break-even bundle | ~$29.16 USD (SGD ~$37) | $29.16 | 1.0× | Expected value equals cost. | |
| Booster Box (36 packs) | ~$182.88 | ~$263.31 | $174.96 | 0.96× | −EV at retail AND market. |
| ~Break-even box | ~$174.96 USD (SGD ~$224) | $174.96 | 1.0× | Expected value equals cost. | |
Why retail is still slightly negative: Paradox Rift's card prices have softened over the 2+ years since its November 2023 release. Most ex Double Rares in the base set are near-bulk ($0.92–$2.66), and even the SIR pool tops out at $57 (Altaria ex). The unusual standout is the Groudon Illustration Rare (#199) at $103.79 — the most valuable card in the set — which partially rescues the IR pool average. Without Groudon, the EV per pack would be closer to $3.50.
Card Prices by Rarity
Paradox Rift (SV04) has 266 cards across six rarity tiers above common. Released November 2023, this is one of the first major Scarlet & Violet era sets to feature both Ancient and Future Paradox Pokémon as the main theme.
Hyper Rares (✦) — #260–266
7 cards. Gold full-art treatments of select ex cards and items. Estimated pull rate approximately 1 in 82 packs (1.22%). The Paradox Rift Hyper Rare pool is notably weak compared to other sets — the top card is only $13.31.
| # | Card | Price (USD) | Price (SGD est.) |
|---|---|---|---|
| 260 | Garchomp ex | $13.31 | ~$17 |
| 262 | Roaring Moon ex | $7.40 | ~$9 |
| 261 | Iron Valiant ex | $5.81 | ~$7 |
| 264 | Counter Catcher | $3.68 | ~$5 |
| 265 | Luxurious Cape | $3.39 | ~$4 |
| 266 | Reversal Energy | $3.39 | ~$4 |
| 263 | Beach Court | $3.00 | ~$4 |
Pool average: $5.71 USD. Pool median: $3.68 USD. The Hyper Rare pool in this set is unusually cheap — pulling a gold card feels less rewarding than in newer sets where gold rares can be worth $30–$50+.
Special Illustration Rares (★★ SIR) — #245–259
15 cards. The main chase tier in a standard SV-era sense. Estimated pull rate approximately 1 in 47 packs (2.13%). Price range: $6.30–$57. Note: the Groudon IR (#199) at $103.79 is more valuable than any card in this pool.
| # | Card | Price (USD) | Price (SGD est.) |
|---|---|---|---|
| 253 | Altaria ex | $57.00 | ~$73 |
| 251 | Roaring Moon ex | $42.88 | ~$55 |
| 245 | Garchomp ex | $34.99 | ~$45 |
| 252 | Gholdengo ex | $29.11 | ~$37 |
| 246 | Golisopod ex | $25.00 | ~$32 |
| 249 | Iron Valiant ex | $22.45 | ~$29 |
| 247 | Tapu Koko ex | $21.41 | ~$27 |
| 255 | Parasol Lady | $16.45 | ~$21 |
| 248 | Iron Hands ex | $12.24 | ~$16 |
| 250 | Sandy Shocks ex | $8.99 | ~$11 |
| 254 | Mela | $8.47 | ~$11 |
| 259 | Tulip | $8.40 | ~$11 |
| 256 | Professor Sada's Vitality | $8.00 | ~$10 |
| 258 | Rika | $8.00 | ~$10 |
| 257 | Professor Turo's Scenario | $6.30 | ~$8 |
Pool average: $20.65 USD. Pool median: $16.45 USD. The SIR pool is reasonably spread — no single card dominates. Altaria ex at $57 is modest compared to flagship SIRs in other SV-era sets that can exceed $100–$400.
Illustration Rares (★ IR) — #183–216
34 cards. Expected roughly once every 13 packs (7.69%). This is the most important rarity tier in Paradox Rift — the pool contains the most valuable card in the entire set: Groudon (#199) at $103.79.
| # | Card | Price (USD) | Notes |
|---|---|---|---|
| 199 | Groudon | $103.79 | Most expensive card in the set — beats all SIRs |
| 193 | Plusle | $46.48 | Nostalgia/fan demand |
| 194 | Minun | $40.00 | Nostalgia/fan demand |
| 208 | Steelix | $33.65 | |
| 189 | Mantyke | $32.99 | |
| 206 | Morpeko | $32.08 | |
| 211 | Aipom | $24.48 | |
| 213 | Swablu | $24.14 | |
| 205 | Yveltal | $23.50 | |
| 201 | Minior | $20.84 | |
| 196 | Joltik | $20.44 | |
| 186 | Magby | $16.86 | |
| 204 | Garbodor | $15.99 | |
| 212 | Loudred | $14.59 | |
| 207 | Brute Bonnet | $14.47 | |
| 198 | Gimmighoul | $14.00 | |
| 214 | Porygon-Z | $10.99 | |
| 188 | Snorunt | $10.08 | |
| 192 | Veluza | $9.04 | |
| 190 | Vanillish | $8.98 | |
| 216 | Iron Jugulis | $8.94 | |
| 210 | Aegislash | $8.61 | |
| 191 | Wimpod | $8.52 | |
| 200 | Mienshao | $7.61 | |
| 195 | Blitzle | $7.50 | |
| 187 | Iron Moth | $7.00 | |
| 185 | Toedscruel | $6.98 | |
| 197 | Espathra | $6.75 | |
| 215 | Cyclizar | $6.00 | |
| 203 | Slither Wing | $5.53 | |
| 209 | Ferrothorn | $4.95 | |
| 183 | Crustle | $4.94 | |
| 202 | Garganacl | $4.28 | |
| 184 | Dottler | $4.25 |
Pool average: $17.92 USD. Pool median: $10.54 USD. Groudon heavily skews the mean — if you pull an IR, the median outcome ($10.54) is a more realistic expectation than the $17.92 average. The Plusle and Minun IRs are fan-favourite nostalgia plays with strong retail demand despite being non-competitive bulk-art cards.
Ultra Rares (★★) — #217–244
28 cards. Full-art ex cards (#217–234) and trainer full-art cards (#235–244). Expected roughly once every 15 packs (6.67%). Most ex Ultra Rares in this range are worth $2–$4.
| # | Card | Price (USD) |
|---|---|---|
| 233 | Maushold ex | $11.88 |
| 219 | Garchomp ex | $8.00 |
| 238 | Parasol Lady | $4.89 |
| 231 | Gholdengo ex | $4.37 |
| 229 | Roaring Moon ex | $4.09 |
| 244 | Tulip | $4.01 |
| 226 | Hoopa ex | $3.75 |
| 232 | Altaria ex | $3.55 |
| 227 | Toxtricity ex | $3.00 |
| 236 | Mela | $3.00 |
| 225 | Iron Valiant ex | $2.98 |
| 220 | Tsareena ex | $2.82 |
| 223 | Iron Hands ex | $2.71 |
| 221 | Golisopod ex | $2.50 |
| 241 | Rika | $2.46 |
| 218 | Armarouge ex | $2.44 |
| 228 | Sandy Shocks ex | $2.39 |
| 217 | Froslass ex | $2.35 |
| 230 | Aegislash ex | $2.34 |
| 239 | Professor Sada's Vitality | $2.26 |
| 224 | Cofagrigus ex | $2.25 |
| 240 | Professor Turo's Scenario | $2.22 |
| 243 | Shauntal | $2.07 |
| 234 | Bombirdier ex | $2.01 |
| 222 | Tapu Koko ex | $2.00 |
| 235 | Larry | $2.00 |
| 242 | Roark | $1.77 |
| 237 | Norman | $1.25 |
Pool average: $3.26 USD. Pulling a UR in Paradox Rift is largely a bulk hit — only Maushold ex (#233) at $11.88 and Garchomp ex (#219) at $8.00 stand out above the floor.
Double Rares (★★ ex) — base set ex cards
The ex cards within the main set (#001–182). Expected roughly once every 6 packs (16.67%). Most are worth under $1.30. Mewtwo ex (#58) at $2.66 is the notable exception.
| # | Card | Price (USD) |
|---|---|---|
| 058 | Mewtwo ex | $2.66 |
| 124 | Roaring Moon ex | $1.69 |
| 038 | Garchomp ex | $1.29 |
| 135 | Aegislash ex | $1.19 |
| 046 | Tsareena ex | $0.99 |
| 156 | Bombirdier ex | $0.92 |
Pool average: $1.46 USD (priced cards). Many additional base-set ex cards have little to no secondary market price data, reflecting near-zero demand — they are bulk. Mewtwo ex is the only Double Rare worth keeping an eye on.
Chase Cards: Top 10 by Value
The Paradox Rift value landscape has an unusual feature: the top card is an Illustration Rare, not an SIR. Groudon #199 at $103.79 is the most valuable card in the set — beating every SIR by a wide margin. The Altaria ex SIR (#253) at $57 is the top SIR but only half of Groudon's value. Six of the top ten cards are IRs, driven by nostalgia (Plusle, Minun), iconic designs (Groudon, Steelix), or competitive utility (Brute Bonnet).
Expected Value Per Pack
Using current PriceCharting market prices weighted by pull rates from Paradox Rift community opening data, here is where the expected value of each pack comes from:
| Component | Pull Rate | Pool Avg (USD) | EV Contribution |
|---|---|---|---|
| Bulk (commons + uncommons) | 100% | $0.80 | $0.80 |
| Reverse Holo slot | 100% | $1.60 | $1.60 |
| Standard Rare (★) | 65.6% | $0.23 | $0.15 |
| Double Rare (★★ ex) | 16.7% | $1.46 | $0.24 |
| Illustration Rare (★ IR) | 7.7% | $17.92 | $1.38 |
| Ultra Rare (#217–244) | 6.7% | $3.26 | $0.22 |
| SIR (#245–259) | 2.1% | $20.65 | $0.44 |
| Hyper Rare (#260–266) | 1.2% | $5.71 | $0.07 |
Key observations from this table:
- IRs contribute the most to EV of any hit slot ($1.38) — driven largely by Groudon at $103.79. Without Groudon, the IR pool average would fall to about $14, reducing IR EV contribution to ~$1.08.
- SIRs contribute only $0.44 per pack — this reflects how far SIR prices have fallen since release. At launch, the top SIR (Garchomp ex) was worth significantly more, making opening far more attractive.
- Hyper Rares contribute just $0.07 — the weakest HR pool of any SV-era set at this stage. Even at 1/82 pull rate, the $5.71 average is too low to matter.
- Double Rares contribute only $0.24 — most base ex cards have become true bulk. Only Mewtwo ex ($2.66) maintains any meaningful resale value.
Monte Carlo: Win vs Loss Odds
The EV table above gives averages. What actually happens to individual openers is driven by variance. The charts below show results from 100,000 simulated openings, drawing from the actual card pool prices and pull rates — not averages.
Each bar = $50 profit/loss range. Nearly all outcomes cluster in the −$200 to −$50 range. 100,000 simulated openings. Prices from PriceCharting (USD), May 2026.
Win / Loss summary across all formats
| Scenario | Cost | Win % | Loss % | Median P/L | P5 (bad luck) | P95 (good luck) | Avg Return |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Pack — retail (~$5.08) | $5.08 | 14.0% | 86.0% | −$2 | −$3 | +$9 | 0.96× |
| Bundle — retail (~$30.48) | $30.48 | 29.0% | 71.0% | −$8 | −$15 | +$34 | 0.96× |
| Box — retail (~$182.88) | $182.88 | 35.9% | 64.1% | −$16 | −$64 | +$84 | 0.96× |
| Pack — market (~$10.70) | $10.70 | 7.1% | 92.9% | −$8 | −$8 | +$4 | 0.45× |
| Bundle — market (~$42.99) | $42.99 | 15.2% | 84.8% | −$21 | −$27 | +$21 | 0.68× |
| Box — market (~$263.31) | $263.31 | 5.5% | 94.5% | −$97 | −$144 | +$4 | 0.67× |
P5 = the outcome in the worst 5% of openings. P95 = the outcome in the best 5%. Win = profit > $0. Simulation: 100,000 runs, seed 42.
What these numbers mean in practice:
- Opening a box at market price ($263) has a 94.5% chance of losing money and only a 5.5% win rate. Even the P95 outcome (best 5% of sessions) is barely break-even at +$4. This is among the worst box opening propositions of any SV-era set.
- The market pack is similarly bad: at 0.45× return, you are losing about 55 cents of every dollar spent on average. The P5 and P95 are within $12 of each other — almost no variance, just steady losses.
- Retail box (35.9% win) reflects the slight negative EV at retail: not as bad, but still a 64% chance of losing money per opening session.
- The retail bundle ($30.48) at 29% win rate is slightly better than flipping a weighted coin, but the median loss of $8 on a $30 purchase is meaningful.
The Break-Even Price
If the expected value per pack is $4.86 USD, the break-even prices for each product format are:
Singapore context: Retail packs in Singapore cost approximately SGD $6.50 each (USD ~$5.08). This is slightly above the break-even pack price of $4.86, making Singapore retail slightly negative EV — an unusual situation where even first-hand retail opens are not justified mathematically. Retail boxes (~SGD $234) are also modestly above break-even (~SGD $224). The gap is small but real.
Sensitivity to SIR price changes
| SIR Price Scenario | EV per Pack | Break-even Bundle (USD) | Break-even Box (USD) |
|---|---|---|---|
| Current prices (May 2026) | $4.90 | ~$29.40 | ~$176.40 |
| SIRs −25% | ~$4.79 | ~$28.74 | ~$172.44 |
| SIRs −50% | ~$4.68 | ~$28.08 | ~$168.48 |
| SIRs −75% | ~$4.57 | ~$27.42 | ~$164.52 |
Because IRs ($1.38 contribution) drive more EV than SIRs ($0.44 contribution) in this set, SIR price drops have less impact than in newer sets. A 75% SIR correction drops EV only to $4.57/pack — the break-even box falls to $164.52, still well below the market price of $263. The set's EV is more sensitive to Groudon IR price movements: if Groudon falls 50% (from $103 to $51), the IR pool average drops from $17.92 to ~$14.58, shaving off ~$0.26 from EV per pack.
What You Should Actually Do
If you want a specific card
Buy the single. Use the tcgTalk price comparison to find the best current Singapore price. For Groudon IR at $104, the expected cost to pull it is roughly 13 packs × 34 IRs ≈ 1 in 442 packs — over $4,700 at market pack price. For the Altaria ex SIR at $57, the expected cost is roughly 47 packs × 15 SIRs ≈ 1 in 705 packs — over $7,500 at market. The singles market wins by a factor of 40–70× versus opening.
If you want to open packs
Only open at Singapore retail and accept that EV is slightly negative (0.96×). The retail box gives the best odds of any format at 35.9% win rate, with a P95 outcome of +$84 if you have a great session. Do not open at market prices — a box at $263 has a 94.5% loss rate and the P95 outcome is still barely positive.
Compare current retail vs secondary prices on Carousell or at local game stores before purchasing. If retail product is unavailable and market boxes are at $263+, the math is clearly against opening.
If you are buying sealed for investment
Paradox Rift sealed at retail is slightly negative EV and unlikely to appreciate significantly — it is a mature set from November 2023 that has largely completed its price decline cycle. The main appeal would be long-term storage if you believe Groudon IR, Plusle IR, or Minun IR prices will recover. These nostalgia-driven IRs are the set's most stable assets. Avoid paying market box prices (~$263) as a sealed investment — the break-even box price is ~$175, meaning market product is already 50% overpriced relative to current card values.
If you already have cards to sell
Groudon IR (#199) at $104 is the most liquid and valuable card in the set. Given that this is a 2+ year old set, Groudon's high price reflects sustained demand rather than a post-release hype spike — the price is more stable than a brand-new set's chase card. Altaria ex SIR, Roaring Moon ex SIR, and the Plusle/Minun IRs are the next tier worth prioritising for sale.
Frequently Asked Questions
Is it worth opening Paradox Rift packs?
No, not from a pure EV standpoint. The expected value per pack ($4.86) is below both the Singapore retail price (~$5.08) and the market price (~$10.70). Even retail opening returns approximately 96 cents per dollar spent. This is an older set where market prices haven't declined enough to match card values. Open it if you want the experience or specific cards, not for financial gain.
What is the most expensive Paradox Rift card?
Groudon (#199) — an Illustration Rare — at approximately USD $103.79 (~SGD $133). This is unusual: the top card is an IR, not a SIR or Hyper Rare. The top SIR is Altaria ex (#253) at USD $57.00 (~SGD $73).
Why are the Plusle and Minun IRs so expensive?
Plusle (#193) at $46.48 and Minun (#194) at $40 are priced well above their pull odds due to nostalgia and fan demand. Both Pokémon have been collector favourites since Generation III. The Illustration Rare art treatment has given them new life as chase cards despite having no competitive relevance. This pattern is common in the TCG — fan-favourite Pokémon with attractive art consistently outperform their "objective" tier.
How many SIRs are in Paradox Rift?
15 Special Illustration Rares (#245–259) and 7 Hyper Rares (#260–266). There are also 28 Ultra Rares (#217–244) — 18 full-art ex cards and 10 trainer full arts. The set has a large number of cards above the base rarity, but the value distribution is relatively flat compared to newer sets.
What is the break-even box price for Paradox Rift?
Approximately USD $174.96 (SGD ~$224). The current secondary market box price of ~$263 is approximately 50% above break-even. A box would need to drop to ~$175 before opening becomes neutral EV. At Singapore retail prices (~SGD $234/box), you are still paying above break-even (~SGD $224).
How does Paradox Rift compare to other SV-era sets for pack opening?
Paradox Rift is one of the weaker opening propositions among SV-era sets at current prices. Its EV ($4.86/pack) is well below sets like Chaos Rising ($7.05) or Ascended Heroes (~$11+). The main reason is that Paradox Rift's card prices have declined significantly over its 2+ year lifespan, while sealed product prices haven't kept pace. For comparison: Paldean Fates and Obsidian Flames EV guides are available for adjacent sets in the same era.
Disclaimer: All card prices are from PriceCharting market data (USD) as of May 2026 and are indicative of current secondary market rates — they will change. SGD equivalents use an approximate 1.28 exchange rate (May 2026). Pull rates are community estimates from aggregate opening data for Scarlet & Violet era sets; The Pokemon Company does not publish official pull rates. Monte Carlo results use 100,000 simulated openings, seed 42. This is not financial advice. Verify current prices on tcgTalk or Carousell before making any buying or selling decisions.