Card prices are sourced from PriceCharting market data (USD). PHP equivalents use a live exchange rate. Current market prices make opening negative EV in every format — only consider opening if you can source packs near retail (~₱313/pack).
The Short Answer
Black Bolt is negative expected value at market prices in every format. A pack costs ₱797 at market against a break-even of ₱444 — you are paying nearly double the mathematical break-even. The unusually large IR pool (69 cards, avg ₱1,116) provides frequent hits, but the high product premium more than offsets this.
| Product | Market Price (PHP) | Expected Card Value | Return at Market | Verdict |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Booster Pack | ₱797 | ₱444 | 0.56× | −EV at market. |
| Booster Bundle (6 packs) | ₱3,702 | ₱2,662 | 0.72× | −EV at market. |
| ~Break-even bundle | ₱2,662 (~$43.14 USD) | 1.0× | Expected value equals cost. | |
| ~Break-even box (36 packs) | ₱15,973 (~$258.84 USD) | 1.0× | Expected value equals cost. | |
The Seismitoad wildcard: Seismitoad IR (#105) at ₱11,153 is the most anomalous card in the set — an IR worth more than most SIRs. Its price is entirely art-driven and can shift quickly. It accounts for ~6.8% of total EV per pack.
Card Prices by Rarity
Black Bolt (172 cards) introduces the Black White Rare — a new top rarity — and features an unusually large IR pool covering every Pokémon in the base set.
Black White Rare (★☆ BWR) — #171–172
Two cards. A brand-new rarity not seen in Western Pokémon TCG releases since the original Black & White era. Pull rate unconfirmed — estimated at ~~1 in 1,789 packs (estimated).
| # | Card | Price (USD) | Price (PHP) |
|---|---|---|---|
| 172 | Zekrom ex | $500.00 | ₱30,855 |
| 171 | Victini | $496.54 | ₱30,641 |
Pool average: ₱30,748. Both BWRs are priced almost identically — unusual in a set where the top card typically commands a significant premium.
Special Illustration Rares (★★ SIR) — #164–170
7 cards. Pull rate approximately ~1 in 80 packs. Price range: ₱1,261 – ₱14,976.
| # | Card | Price (USD) | Price (PHP) |
|---|---|---|---|
| 166 | Zekrom ex | $242.69 | ₱14,976 |
| 165 | Kyurem ex | $68.64 | ₱4,236 |
| 170 | N's Plan | $58.99 | ₱3,640 |
| 164 | Serperior ex | $42.98 | ₱2,652 |
| 169 | Genesect ex | $39.33 | ₱2,427 |
| 167 | Meloetta ex | $37.41 | ₱2,309 |
| 168 | Excadrill ex | $20.44 | ₱1,261 |
Pool average: ₱4,501. Pool median: ₱2,652. The mean is heavily skewed by Zekrom ex — most SIR pulls land in the ₱2,283–₱4,258 range.
Ultra Rares (★☆ UR) — #156–163
8 cards. Pull rate approximately ~1 in 17 packs. Pool average: ₱179 — the lowest UR pool average of any set analysed on this site. Hitting a UR in Black Bolt is a disappointment compared to most other sets.
| # | Card | Price (USD) | Price (PHP) |
|---|---|---|---|
| 158 | Zekrom ex | $5.99 | ₱370 |
| 163 | N's Plan | $4.47 | ₱276 |
| 159 | Meloetta ex | $2.75 | ₱170 |
| 157 | Kyurem ex | $2.38 | ₱147 |
| 160 | Excadrill ex | $2.00 | ₱123 |
| 162 | Fennel | $2.00 | ₱123 |
| 161 | Genesect ex | $1.99 | ₱123 |
| 156 | Serperior ex | $1.61 | ₱99 |
Illustration Rares (★ IR) — #087–155
69 cards — the largest IR pool of any Pokémon TCG set. Pull rate approximately ~1 in 6 packs. Seismitoad (#105) at ₱11,153 is the defining quirk of this set — an IR worth more than all but one SIR, driven entirely by collector demand for the artwork.
| # | Card | Price (USD) | Price (PHP) | Notes |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 105 | Seismitoad | $180.73 | ₱11,153 | Art-driven chase IR — anomalously high for this tier |
| 147 | Haxorus | $60.00 | ₱3,703 | |
| 137 | Krookodile | $44.59 | ₱2,752 | |
| 129 | Dwebble | $40.00 | ₱2,468 | |
| 100 | Volcarona | $41.93 | ₱2,588 | |
| 151 | Audino | $33.49 | ₱2,067 | |
| 096 | Amoonguss | $32.75 | ₱2,021 | |
| 118 | Solosis | $28.83 | ₱1,779 | |
| 106 | Tirtouga | $24.22 | ₱1,495 | |
| 141 | Klinklang | $23.00 | ₱1,419 | |
| 115 | Eelektross | $22.03 | ₱1,359 | |
| 127 | Conkeldurr | $22.39 | ₱1,382 | |
| 131 | Landorus | $22.45 | ₱1,385 | |
| 144 | Cobalion | $22.58 | ₱1,393 | |
| 087 | Snivy | $22.68 | ₱1,400 | |
| 091 | Petilil | $21.79 | ₱1,345 | |
| 146 | Fraxure | $21.80 | ₱1,345 | |
| 134 | Scolipede | $21.76 | ₱1,343 | |
| 148 | Pidove | $20.00 | ₱1,234 | |
| 153 | Cinccino | $20.38 | ₱1,258 | |
| 150 | Unfezant | $19.99 | ₱1,234 | |
| 108 | Alomomola | $19.71 | ₱1,216 | |
| 114 | Eelektrik | $19.56 | ₱1,207 | |
| 152 | Minccino | $17.99 | ₱1,110 | |
| 113 | Tynamo | $16.11 | ₱994 | |
| 138 | Escavalier | $15.37 | ₱948 | |
| 109 | Cubchoo | $14.41 | ₱889 | |
| 088 | Servine | $14.10 | ₱870 | |
| 112 | Emolga | $13.76 | ₱849 | |
| 095 | Foongus | $13.65 | ₱842 | |
| 119 | Duosion | $11.16 | ₱689 | |
| 089 | Pansage | $12.00 | ₱741 | |
| 099 | Larvesta | $11.65 | ₱719 | |
| 094 | Karrablast | $11.11 | ₱686 | |
| 116 | Munna | $11.00 | ₱679 | |
| 125 | Timburr | $11.00 | ₱679 | |
| 120 | Elgyem | $9.85 | ₱608 | |
| 097 | Darumaka | $10.93 | ₱674 | |
| 101 | Panpour | $10.95 | ₱676 | |
| 135 | Sandile | $10.13 | ₱625 | |
| 098 | Darmanitan | $9.65 | ₱596 | |
| 103 | Tympole | $9.34 | ₱576 | |
| 104 | Palpitoad | $9.35 | ₱577 | |
| 102 | Simipour | $8.59 | ₱530 | |
| 123 | Golurk | $8.93 | ₱551 | |
| 143 | Bisharp | $8.00 | ₱494 | |
| 090 | Simisage | $8.02 | ₱495 | |
| 136 | Krokorok | $7.86 | ₱485 | |
| 155 | Braviary | $7.59 | ₱468 | |
| 126 | Gurdurr | $7.53 | ₱465 | |
| 132 | Venipede | $7.32 | ₱452 | |
| 110 | Beartic | $7.49 | ₱462 | |
| 142 | Pawniard | $6.76 | ₱417 | |
| 111 | Cryogonal | $6.72 | ₱415 | |
| 128 | Throh | $6.45 | ₱398 | |
| 124 | Drilbur | $6.36 | ₱392 | |
| 133 | Whirlipede | $6.31 | ₱389 | |
| 122 | Golett | $6.24 | ₱385 | |
| 154 | Rufflet | $6.17 | ₱381 | |
| 149 | Tranquill | $5.94 | ₱367 | |
| 121 | Beheeyem | $5.20 | ₱321 | |
| 130 | Crustle | $5.21 | ₱322 | |
| 140 | Klang | $5.05 | ₱312 | |
| 139 | Klink | $5.65 | ₱349 | |
| 093 | Maractus | $3.99 | ₱246 | Lowest-value IR |
Pool average: ₱1,116. Pool median: ₱679. The median IR pull (₱679) is more representative of most openers' experience — still decent value compared to most sets.
Double Rares (★★ ex) — within #001–086
6 ex cards in the base set. Appear in the standard card slots, not the premium hit slot. Pool average: ₱86.
| # | Card | Price (USD) | Price (PHP) |
|---|---|---|---|
| 034 | Zekrom ex | $1.54 | ₱95 |
| 003 | Serperior ex | $1.50 | ₱93 |
| 067 | Genesect ex | $1.49 | ₱92 |
| 028 | Kyurem ex | $1.45 | ₱89 |
| 044 | Meloetta ex | $1.27 | ₱78 |
| 046 | Excadrill ex | $1.06 | ₱65 |
Chase Cards: Top 10 by Value
Black Bolt's top 10 is dominated by the BWR tier and a mix of SIRs and anomalously valuable IRs. Three of the top 10 by price are IR cards — extremely unusual.
Expected Value Per Pack
Using current PriceCharting market prices weighted by community pull rate data:
| Component | Pull Rate | Pool Avg (USD) | EV Contribution |
|---|---|---|---|
| Bulk (commons + uncommons) | 100% | $0.80 | $0.80 |
| Reverse Holo slot | 100% | $1.60 | $1.60 |
| Standard Rare / Double Rare (residual) | 76.1% | $0.66 | $0.50 |
| Illustration Rare (★ IR) | 16.7% | $18.08 | $3.01 |
| Ultra Rare (#156–163) | 5.9% | $2.90 | $0.17 |
| SIR (#164–170) | 1.25% | $72.93 | $0.91 |
| BWR (#171–172) ★ estimated | ~0.056% | $498.27 | $0.28 |
IRs contribute the most EV of any hit slot at $3.01 per pack (42% of total EV) — the highest IR contribution of any set analysed on this site. The BWR contribution ($0.28) uses an estimated pull rate; actual EV from BWR may be higher or lower.
Monte Carlo: Win vs Loss Odds
The charts below show results from 100,000 simulated openings, drawing from the actual card pool prices and pull rates. Note that the BWR pull rate is estimated. Simulation prices in USD; your PHP value depends on the current exchange rate.
Each bar = $50 profit/loss range. ··· represents an empty gap in outcomes. The +$750–$900 spike represents pulling a BWR. 100,000 simulated openings. Prices from PriceCharting (USD), May 2026.
Win / Loss summary across all formats
| Scenario | Cost (USD) | Win % | Loss % | Median P/L | P5 (bad luck) | P95 (good luck) | Avg Return |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Pack — market (~$12.91) | $12.91 | 10.9% | 89.1% | −$10 | −$10 | +$11 | 0.56× |
| Bundle — market (~$59.99) | $59.99 | 16% | 84% | −$29 | −$43 | +$33 | 0.73× |
| Box — at break-even (~$258.84) | $258.84 | 33.8% | 66.2% | −$31 | −$108 | +$226 | 1.0× |
The Break-Even Price
If the expected value per pack is $7.19 USD, the break-even prices for each product format are:
What You Should Actually Do
If you want a specific card
Buy the single. Use the tcgTalk price comparison to find the best price. For a BWR at ~₱30,855, opening packs to find one is not realistic — at the estimated ~1 in 1,789 pull rate, the expected product cost to pull one is enormous. For Seismitoad IR at ₱11,153, buying the single is far cheaper than chasing it through packs.
If you want to open packs
Wait for a price closer to retail (~₱313 per pack) before opening. At market prices (₱797 per pack), you are paying nearly double the break-even rate. Check Datablitz / Game One / Shopee PH for the best current prices. The large IR pool means you will almost always pull something — Seismitoad or Haxorus being the names to watch for.
If you are watching the BWR market
Victini and Zekrom ex BWR are both new to market and priced at ~₱30,855 with limited price history. As community opening data accumulates and the actual pull rate becomes clear, prices may adjust significantly in either direction. Treat BWR singles as speculative.
Buy Black Bolt on TCGPlayer
Frequently Asked Questions
Is it worth opening Black Bolt packs in the Philippines?
At market prices (~₱797/pack), no — EV is ₱444/pack (0.56× return). At retail prices (~₱313/pack), opening becomes positive EV. The large IR pool means you will almost always pull something, but the high market premium makes most formats a clear loss.
What are the most expensive Black Bolt cards?
Zekrom ex BWR (#172) and Victini BWR (#171) at approximately ₱30,855 each. Zekrom ex SIR (#166) is third at ₱14,976. Unusually, Seismitoad IR (#105) at ₱11,153 ranks fourth — a collector favourite whose artwork commands anomalously high pricing for the IR tier.
How does Black Bolt compare to other recent sets for pack opening?
Black Bolt has an unusually large IR pool (69 cards vs 20–30 in most sets) and the weakest UR pool (avg ₱179) of any set analysed on this site. The key differentiator is the BWR tier and Seismitoad IR — but the high product premium makes it negative EV at market in all formats. Sets like Chaos Rising offer better opening odds at market prices.
Disclaimer: All card prices from PriceCharting market data (USD) as of May 2026. PHP equivalents use a live exchange rate. BWR pull rate is an estimate based on the lowest observed MHR rate across comparable sets; zero BWRs were recorded in 750 tracked Black Bolt pack openings. All other pull rates are from community aggregate opening data. Monte Carlo uses 100,000 simulated openings. This is not financial advice.