Card prices sourced from PriceCharting market data (USD). PHP values use live exchange rates. Pull rates from 8,000-pack community aggregate data for Obsidian Flames.
The Short Answer
Obsidian Flames is one of the clearest cases in recent SV history where market pricing is dramatically disconnected from card value. The expected card value per pack is ₱357 — but market packs cost ₱724, bundles cost ₱5,614, and boxes cost ₱22,833. You lose roughly 50 cents for every peso you spend opening at market prices.
| Product | Retail Price (PHP) | Market Price (PHP) | Expected Card Value | Return at Retail | Verdict |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Booster Pack | ₱313 | ₱724 | ₱357 | 1.14× | +EV at retail. Deeply −EV at market. |
| Booster Bundle (6 packs) | ₱1,881 | ₱5,614 | ₱2,144 | 1.14× | +EV at retail. Deeply −EV at market. |
| Booster Box (36 packs) | ₱11,286 | ₱22,833 | ₱12,863 | 1.14× | +EV at retail. Deeply −EV at market. |
Card Prices by Rarity
Hyper Rare (◇ HR) — #226–230
5 cards. Gold full-art treatment. Pull rate ~~1 in 52 packs. Charizard ex (#228) dominates — the other four average only ₱222.
| # | Card | Price (USD) | Price (PHP) |
|---|---|---|---|
| 228 | Charizard ex | $40.00 | ₱2,468 |
| 230 | Fire Energy | $4.68 | ₱289 |
| 226 | Geeta | $4.25 | ₱262 |
| 227 | Poppy | $3.28 | ₱202 |
| 229 | Artazon | $2.20 | ₱136 |
Pool average: ₱671. Pool median: ₱262.
Special Illustration Rares (★★ SIR) — #218–225
8 cards. Pull rate ~~1 in 32 packs. Extremely top-heavy — Charizard ex SIR alone accounts for 75% of the total pool value.
| # | Card | Price (USD) | Price (PHP) |
|---|---|---|---|
| 223 | Charizard ex | $113.80 | ₱7,023 |
| 225 | Pidgeot ex | $19.49 | ₱1,203 |
| 222 | Eiscue ex | $5.82 | ₱359 |
| 224 | Revavroom ex | $5.30 | ₱327 |
| 221 | Ryme | $1.86 | ₱115 |
| 220 | Poppy | $1.92 | ₱118 |
| 218 | Geeta | $1.74 | ₱107 |
| 219 | Ortega | $1.62 | ₱100 |
Pool average: ₱1,169. Pool median: ₱221. Without Charizard ex, the remaining 7 SIRs average only ₱333.
Illustration Rares (★ IR) — #198–209
12 cards. ~~1 in 13 packs. One of the strongest IR pools in SV-era — two cards above ₱2,468 and no true filler at the low end.
| # | Card | Price (USD) | Price (PHP) | Notes |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 199 | Ninetales | $44.51 | ₱2,747 | Top IR — fan favourite fire art |
| 202 | Cleffa | $42.39 | ₱2,616 | Top IR — beloved baby illustration |
| 198 | Gloom | $24.34 | ₱1,502 | Strong mid-tier IR |
| 207 | Pidgey | $16.99 | ₱1,048 | |
| 205 | Scizor | $16.67 | ₱1,029 | |
| 209 | Lechonk | $11.87 | ₱732 | |
| 208 | Pidgeotto | $11.20 | ₱691 | |
| 204 | Houndour | $10.42 | ₱643 | |
| 203 | Larvitar | $7.64 | ₱471 | |
| 201 | Bellibolt | $5.58 | ₱344 | |
| 200 | Palafin | $4.91 | ₱303 | |
| 206 | Varoom | $2.99 | ₱185 | Lowest-value IR |
Pool average: ₱1,026. Pool median: ₱712. 8 of 12 IRs are worth ₱617 or more.
Ultra Rares (★★ UR) — #210–217
8 cards. ~~1 in 15 packs. Charizard ex (#215) at ₱1,234 is the standout; the remaining 7 average only ₱184.
| # | Card | Price (USD) | Price (PHP) |
|---|---|---|---|
| 215 | Charizard ex | $19.99 | ₱1,234 |
| 211 | Tyranitar ex | $5.62 | ₱347 |
| 214 | Absol ex | $3.40 | ₱210 |
| 217 | Pidgeot ex | $3.39 | ₱209 |
| 210 | Eiscue ex | $2.99 | ₱185 |
| 212 | Vespiquen ex | $1.97 | ₱122 |
| 216 | Revavroom ex | $1.61 | ₱99 |
| 213 | Glimmora ex | $1.48 | ₱91 |
Pool average: ₱312.
Double Rares (★★ ex) — #001–185
21 ex cards. ~~1 in 7 packs. Charizard ex (#125) leads at ₱370; the rest cluster between ₱62–₱195.
Pool average: ₱107.
Chase Cards: Top 10 by Value
Expected Value Per Pack
| Component | Pull Rate | Pool Avg (USD) | EV Contribution |
|---|---|---|---|
| Bulk (commons + uncommons) | 100% | $0.80 | $0.80 |
| Reverse Holo slot | 100% | $1.60 | $1.60 |
| Standard Rare (★) | 66.3% | $1.09 | $0.72 |
| Double Rare (★★ ex) | 14.3% | $1.74 | $0.25 |
| Illustration Rare (★ IR) | 7.7% | $16.63 | $1.28 |
| Ultra Rare (#210–217) | 6.7% | $5.06 | $0.34 |
| SIR (#218–225) | 3.1% | $18.94 | $0.59 |
| Hyper Rare (#226–230) | 1.9% | $10.88 | $0.21 |
Monte Carlo: Win vs Loss Odds
The charts below show results from 100,000 simulated openings. Simulation prices are in USD; your PHP value depends on the current exchange rate.
Each bar = $50 profit/loss range. The -$200 bar (40.5%) is the modal outcome — most openers lose $150–$200 at current market prices. 100,000 simulated openings. Prices from PriceCharting (USD), May 2026.
Win / Loss summary across all formats
| Scenario | Cost (USD) | Win % | Loss % | Median P/L | P5 (bad luck) | P95 (good luck) | Avg Return |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Pack — retail (~$5.08) | $5.08 | 16.4% | 83.6% | −$1 | −$3 | +$14 | 1.14× |
| Bundle — retail (~$30.48) | $30.48 | 36.1% | 63.9% | −$5 | −$11 | +$40 | 1.14× |
| Box — retail (~$182.88) | $182.88 | 60.6% | 39.4% | +$12 | −$41 | +$135 | 1.14× |
| Pack — market (~$11.73) | $11.73 | 7.3% | 92.7% | −$8 | −$9 | +$7 | 0.50× |
| Bundle — market (~$90.97) | $90.97 | 2.9% | 97.1% | −$65 | −$72 | −$19 | 0.38× |
| Box — market (~$370.00) | $370 | 1.5% | 98.5% | −$175 | −$228 | −$51 | 0.56× |
The Break-Even Price
The market box price (~₱22,833) is 78% above the break-even point (₱12,863). Market box prices would need to fall roughly 44% to reach break-even at current card values.
What You Should Actually Do
If you want a specific card
Buy the single. Use the tcgTalk price comparison to find the best current price. For the Charizard ex SIR at ~₱7,023, the expected cost to pull it through pack opening is ~256 packs (~₱185,308 at market). Buying the single is dramatically cheaper.
If you want to open packs
Only open at retail price. At retail (~₱313/pack), the retail box gives a 60.6% win rate and 1.14× expected return. At any market price above ₱12,863 per box, you are mathematically losing money on average. Obsidian Flames is a 2023 set — finding retail stock in PH may require checking Datablitz or local stores.
Buy Obsidian Flames on TCGPlayer
Frequently Asked Questions
Is it worth opening Obsidian Flames in the Philippines?
At retail price (~₱313/pack), yes — EV is ~₱357 per pack (1.14×) and the retail box has a 60.6% win rate. At secondary market prices, no — packs ₱724, bundles ₱5,614, boxes ₱22,833 all return 0.38×–0.56×.
What is the most expensive Obsidian Flames card?
Charizard ex SIR (#223) at approximately USD $113.80 (₱7,023). Ninetales IR (#199) at ₱2,747 and Cleffa IR (#202) at ₱2,616 are second and third most valuable — both Illustration Rares.
How many SIRs are in Obsidian Flames?
8 Special Illustration Rares (#218–225) and 5 Hyper Rares (#226–230), for 13 premium rarity cards. The SIR pool is extremely uneven — Charizard ex (#223) accounts for 75% of the entire SIR pool's value. The other 7 SIRs average only ₱333.
Disclaimer: All card prices from PriceCharting market data (USD) as of May 2026. PHP values use live exchange rates. Pull rates are community estimates from 8,000-pack aggregate opening data. Monte Carlo uses 100,000 simulations. This is not financial advice.