Paldean Fates was released in January 2024 and is no longer in print. All sealed product sells at secondary market prices significantly higher than original retail. The EV analysis below reflects current secondary market rates as of May 2026.
Card prices sourced from PriceCharting market data (USD). PHP equivalents use a live exchange rate. Prices reflect current secondary market rates as of May 2026 and will change over time.
The Short Answer
Paldean Fates is one of the most extreme examples of secondary market premium in the modern Pokemon TCG. The EV per pack at current market prices is $13.86 USD — but the market pack price is $21.85 USD, a 58% markup over break-even. At retail in early 2024, this set was exceptional value. Today, opening is negative EV at every product format.
| Product | Retail Price 2024 (PHP) | Market Price Now (PHP) | Expected Card Value | Return at Retail | Return at Market |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Booster Pack | ₱ 339 | ₱ 1,603 | ₱ 864 | 2.52× | 0.64× |
| Booster Bundle (6 packs) | ₱ 2,034 | ₱ 10,172 | ₱ 5,181 | 2.52× | 0.53× |
| 36-pack equivalent | ₱ 12,207 | ₱ 57,704 | ₱ 31,086 | 2.52× | 0.64× |
What Makes This Set Unique
Paldean Fates (SV04pt5) is a special subset released January 2024. Unlike standard Scarlet & Violet sets, it is built entirely around shiny Pokemon — every card in the high-number range features a shiny version of a Pokemon from the Paldea region.
- Guaranteed Shiny Rare every pack — instead of a reverse holo slot, every pack contains at minimum one Shiny Rare (#092–211). There are 120 different SHRs.
- No reverse holo slot — replaced by the SHR. Every opener gets a shiny Pokemon pull every single time.
- Hit slot on top — the standard hit slot can upgrade to: Shiny Ultra Rare (☆★), IR, UR trainer, SIR, or Hyper Rare.
- Massive card pool — 245 total cards spanning the full Paldea Pokédex in shiny form, plus high-rarity ex and character art cards.
Card Prices by Rarity
Special Illustration Rare (★★ SIR) — #232–239
8 cards. Estimated pull rate ~1 in 58 packs. Mew ex is the dominant chase card in the entire set.
| # | Card | Price (USD) | Price (PHP) |
|---|---|---|---|
| 232 | Mew ex | $916.50 | ₱ 56,502 |
| 234 | Charizard ex | $308.22 | ₱ 19,002 |
| 233 | Gardevoir ex | $170.00 | ₱ 10,481 |
| 236 | Clive | $29.99 | ₱ 1,849 |
| 237 | Iono | $28.98 | ₱ 1,787 |
| 239 | Penny | $19.99 | ₱ 1,232 |
| 235 | Arven | $10.21 | ₱ 629 |
| 238 | Nemona | $7.59 | ₱ 468 |
Pool average: ₱ 11,494. Pool median: ₱ 1,817. The mean is massively skewed by Mew ex at $916.5. If you pull an SIR, the median outcome is a card worth ~₱ 1,755.
Hyper Rare (◇★) — #240–245
6 gold-treatment Paradox Beast ex cards. Pull rate ~1 in 62 packs. Tightly priced — all six fall within ₱ 406–₱ 793.
| # | Card | Price (USD) | Price (PHP) |
|---|---|---|---|
| 245 | Koraidon ex | $12.20 | ₱ 752 |
| 243 | Miraidon ex | $12.17 | ₱ 750 |
| 241 | Chi-Yu ex | $11.08 | ₱ 683 |
| 242 | Chien-Pao ex | $9.32 | ₱ 575 |
| 240 | Wo-Chien ex | $7.20 | ₱ 444 |
| 244 | Ting-Lu ex | $6.40 | ₱ 395 |
Pool average: ₱ 600. Very consistent pool — no standout chase card.
Shiny Rare (☆) — #092–211 (Guaranteed per pack)
120 cards. Every pack contains at minimum one SHR. Popular shiny Pokemon command significant premiums. Pikachu, Snorlax, Ditto, Mimikyu, and Charmander are the standout chase SHRs.
| # | Card | Price (USD) | Price (PHP) |
|---|---|---|---|
| 131 | Pikachu | $80.00 | ₱ 4,932 |
| 202 | Snorlax | $64.00 | ₱ 3,946 |
| 160 | Mimikyu | $50.63 | ₱ 3,121 |
| 201 | Ditto | $45.20 | ₱ 2,787 |
| 109 | Charmander | $44.71 | ₱ 2,756 |
| 209 | Tandemaus | $31.57 | ₱ 1,946 |
| 174 | Lucario | $31.50 | ₱ 1,942 |
| 210 | Maushold | $30.65 | ₱ 1,890 |
| 132 | Raichu | $24.46 | ₱ 1,508 |
| 198 | Jigglypuff | $23.24 | ₱ 1,433 |
| 112 | Entei | $18.84 | ₱ 1,161 |
Pool average: ₱ 513 across 120 cards. Median: ₱ 253. Top 10 SHRs are worth ₱ 1,401–₱ 4,973; the remaining 110 cards average below ₱ 247. Most SHR pulls will be filler shiny Pokemon.
Shiny Ultra Rare (☆★) — #212–223
12 cards. Pull rate ~1 in 13 packs. Mew ex stands far above the rest of this pool.
| # | Card | Price (USD) | Price (PHP) |
|---|---|---|---|
| 216 | Mew ex | $37.10 | ₱ 2,287 |
| 217 | Gardevoir ex | $9.05 | ₱ 558 |
| 215 | Alakazam ex | $6.64 | ₱ 409 |
| 221 | Pidgeot ex | $3.90 | ₱ 240 |
| 222 | Wigglytuff ex | $3.04 | ₱ 187 |
| 219 | Paldean Clodsire ex | $2.88 | ₱ 178 |
| 220 | Noivern ex | $2.75 | ₱ 170 |
| 218 | Glimmora ex | $2.01 | ₱ 124 |
| 213 | Toedscruel ex | $1.99 | ₱ 123 |
| 223 | Squawkabilly ex | $1.92 | ₱ 118 |
| 214 | Espathra ex | $1.75 | ₱ 108 |
| 212 | Forretress ex | $1.49 | ₱ 92 |
Pool average: ₱ 383. Median: ₱ 173. Mew ex SUR (#216) at ₱ 2,287 is a significant premium — pulling any other SUR yields ₱ 81–₱ 493.
Illustration Rare (★ IR) — #224–226
3 cards. Pull rate ~1 in 14 packs. Small pool with relatively low prices.
| # | Card | Price (USD) | Price (PHP) |
|---|---|---|---|
| 226 | Pawmi | $3.56 | ₱ 219 |
| 224 | Wugtrio | $2.99 | ₱ 184 |
| 225 | Palafin | $2.85 | ₱ 176 |
Pool average: ₱ 193. IR in Paldean Fates is a disappointing pull relative to current market pack costs.
Ultra Rare trainers (★★) — #227–231
5 full-art trainer cards. Pull rate ~1 in 15 packs. The least valuable premium pull in the set.
| # | Card | Price (USD) | Price (PHP) |
|---|---|---|---|
| 231 | Paldean Student | $1.80 | ₱ 111 |
| 228 | Judge | $1.74 | ₱ 107 |
| 227 | Clive | $1.68 | ₱ 104 |
| 230 | Paldean Student | $1.65 | ₱ 102 |
| 229 | Nemona | $1.27 | ₱ 78 |
Pool average: ₱ 100. A UR trainer hit is a disappointing outcome in Paldean Fates.
Double Rare (★★ ex) — main set
10 ex cards. Expected roughly once every 3 packs (~34%). Pool average: $1.47 USD (~₱ 91). Charizard ex (#054) at ₱ 309 is the top DR. Most are under ₱ 80 — below pack cost in almost all scenarios.
Chase Cards: Top 10 by Value
Expected Value per Pack
| Component | Pull Rate | Pool Avg (USD) | EV Contribution | % of Total EV |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Bulk (commons + uncommons) | 100% | $0.80 | $0.80 | 5.7% |
| Shiny Rare slot (guaranteed — replaces reverse holo) | 100% | $8.32 | $8.32 | 59.4% |
| Standard Rare (★) | 41.0% | $0.51 | $0.21 | 1.5% |
| Double Rare (★★ ex) | 34.2% | $1.47 | $0.50 | 3.6% |
| Illustration Rare (IR) | 7.14% | $3.13 | $0.22 | 1.6% |
| Ultra Rare trainers | 6.67% | $1.63 | $0.11 | 0.8% |
| Shiny Ultra Rare (SUR) | 7.69% | $6.21 | $0.48 | 3.4% |
| Hyper Rare (◇★) | 1.61% | $9.73 | $0.16 | 1.1% |
| Special Illustration Rare (SIR) | 1.72% | $186.44 | $3.21 | 22.9% |
- The Shiny Rare slot contributes 60% of all pack EV. No other Pokemon set has a guaranteed premium slot providing this proportion of expected value.
- SIR contributes $3.10 (22% of EV), almost entirely driven by Mew ex at $865.70. Without Mew ex, SIR EV per pack drops to approximately $0.60.
- The SUR, HR, IR, and UR tiers together contribute only $0.94 per pack — low-value pulls relative to market pack costs.
Monte Carlo: Win vs Loss Odds
The charts below show results from 100,000 simulated openings. Simulation prices are in USD; your PHP equivalent depends on the current exchange rate.
Each bar = $50 profit/loss range. ··· = empty gap. No official 36-pack box exists — cost is 36 × single-pack market price. 100,000 simulated openings. Prices from PriceCharting (USD), June 2026.
Win / Loss summary across all formats
| Scenario | Cost (USD) | Win % | Loss % | Median P/L | P5 (bad luck) | P95 (good luck) | Avg Return |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Pack — retail 2024 (~$5.50) | $5.5 | 100% | 0% | +$1 | +$1 | +$37 | 2.52× |
| Bundle — retail 2024 (~$33.00) | $33 | 100% | 0% | +$23 | +$7 | +$127 | 2.56× |
| Box equiv. — retail 2024 (~$198.00) | $198 | 100% | 0% | +$216 | +$97 | +$1090 | 2.55× |
| Pack — market (~$26.00) | $26 | 8.9% | 91.1% | −$19 | −$20 | +$17 | 0.54× |
| Bundle — market (~$165.00) | $165 | 4.6% | 95.4% | −$109 | −$125 | −$8 | 0.51× |
| Box equiv. — market (~$936.00) | $936 | 7.8% | 92.2% | −$522 | −$641 | +$349 | 0.54× |
The Break-Even Price
The market gap: The current market pack price (₱ 1,603) is 58% above the break-even (₱ 864). This is among the largest market-to-EV gaps of any current Pokemon set — a direct consequence of out-of-print scarcity and collector demand for the unique shiny mechanic.
What You Should Actually Do
If you want a specific card
Buy the single. Use the tcgTalk price comparison to find the best current price. The expected cost to pull a specific SIR by opening packs is approximately 58 packs × ₱ 1,603 = ₱ 92,968 per attempt. For Mew ex SIR specifically, buying the single at ₱ 53,370 is far cheaper than opening to find it.
If you want to open packs
At current market prices, opening is poor value in every format. The bundle has a 94.8% loss rate — you will almost certainly lose money. If you are opening for the experience of pulling shiny Pokemon (guaranteed every pack), that is a legitimate reason — but go in knowing you are paying ₱ 1,603 for entertainment, not investment.
If you are buying sealed for investment
Paldean Fates has appreciated significantly since its retail release in January 2024. Further appreciation is possible but the set is already well past peak hype. The risk profile at current prices is unfavorable for new buyers.
Buy Paldean Fates on TCGPlayer
Frequently Asked Questions
Is it worth opening Paldean Fates packs in the Philippines?
No, not at current market prices. EV/pack is ₱ 864 versus market pack price ₱ 1,603 (0.64× return). Bundle has a 94.8% loss rate. At original 2024 retail (~₱ 339/pack), opening was excellent value at 2.5×.
What is the most expensive Paldean Fates card right now?
Mew ex SIR (#232), known as “Bubble Mew”, at approximately USD $865.70 (₱ 53,370). Charizard ex SIR (#234) at USD $310.97 (₱ 19,171) and Gardevoir ex SIR (#233) at USD $168.55 (₱ 10,391) are the other premium SIRs. Among Shiny Rares, Pikachu SHR (#131) at ₱ 4,973 is the main chase card.
Does every Paldean Fates pack have a shiny Pokemon?
Yes — every pack contains at minimum one Shiny Rare (☆) from the 120-card SHR pool (#092–211). This replaces the reverse holo slot found in standard SV sets. The SHR can upgrade to Shiny Ultra Rare (☆★) at ~7.7% rate, or further to SIR/HR through premium hit slot mechanics.
How many SIRs are in Paldean Fates?
8 Special Illustration Rares (#232–239): Mew ex, Gardevoir ex, Charizard ex, Arven, Clive, Iono, Nemona, and Penny. There are also 6 Hyper Rares (#240–245) which are gold-treatment Paradox Beast ex cards. The pull rate for SIR is approximately 1 in 58 packs.
Disclaimer: All card prices from PriceCharting market data (USD) as of May 2026. PHP equivalents use a live exchange rate. Pull rates are community estimates from ~1,500 Paldean Fates pack openings. Monte Carlo uses 100,000 simulations, seed 42. Paldean Fates is no longer available at retail — all prices are secondary market. This is not financial advice.